Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Poroti, that’s a BISONette
by The Finnigans on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:42 am
These are people who hide behind the label of Christian when they are anything but Christian.
Here here
Dog walki g and fitness walk awaits,
O and sniffi g tbe neighbourhood out which is more important
For the head of the house
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:43 am
poroti
I suspect this article shows sexism. I bet Lugarde said lots of positive things about the PM in regard to her management of the economy. After all this is the head of the IMF. However what does Australian media do. They find the least positive thing to say. So they go on fashion sense instead.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:45 am
And she wore envy-inspiring Deco-style jade and onyx earrings on yesterday’s presser. Yum!
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:46 am
guytaur
I think this quote says it well
by poroti on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:47 am
@rodward71: @AlexGreenwich @sunriseon7 @drkerrynphelps a very sad day for equality in QLD. Newman nothing more than ACL puppet
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:47 am
The question ought to be “Why is it right….” The way I see it is that condoning Wikileaks/Assange from holding confidential documents is to condone said Wikileaks/Assange to use said information for spurious purposes. The release of these documents/information appears to be seen as giving the public vital information as to what goes on within the governments of the world (not just here in Oz). However, the release of this information is selective and the motives for the release is spurious at best and has to be as dangerous to world peace and democracy as an atom bomb in the hands of an insane dictator.
It is only my opinion, but I see Assange as a very dangerous piece of human flotsam with no principles or sense of right and wrong. I have no sympathy for him whatever regarding his current situation which he has largely brought down upon himself.
by janice2 on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:47 am
I did some research into what people are searching for online in relation to the carbon tax.
Here are the top ten related searches for 2012 according to google insights:
And here are the fastest rising searches
And looking at the trend line the number of searches peaked in mid May
http://www.google.com/insights/search/#q=carbon%20tax&geo=AU&date=1%2F2012%2012m&cmpt=q
The govt campaign on compensation is working. If the government can’t win, I at least want them to lock in the carbon price.
by bluegreen on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:48 am
Yes, I linked to it here.
by confessions on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:48 am
guytaur @4802
Yes but it is a start and certainly a change from the usual trash.
by poroti on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:50 am
bg:
PBers have said for a few weeks now that the sting has gone out of the carbon price.
by confessions on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:50 am
From the Wayback Machine, April 30th, the extensively quoted La Stupenda:
If journalists ruled Australia there would be a leadership spill every week, an election every fortnight, and Kellog’s Belly Fluff Flakes would be the No. 1 breakfast cereal.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:50 am
janice2
Hi. How have you been?
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:50 am
Imo, people who shove “I’m a christian” in people’s faces never do meet the criteria in Matthew’s gospel. The one’s who do meet them, prove it by being “deeds not words” people.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:50 am
poroti
Do not get me wrong. I am pleased to see positive press for the PM. A case of wow, finally.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:51 am
janice2
What if your government is involved in doing things they should not ? Would you have locked up Daniel Elsberg for life ? His Pentagon Papers had a far far greater impact than Assange’s effort.
by poroti on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:52 am
BB
If Abbott were leader, Grattan would be worshipping at his feet!!
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:53 am
She already worships at his feet.
If he was PM she’d be sucking his toes.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:54 am
Good morning Victoria,
I’m ok but having some problems with my vision – need new specs I think.
Thanks for asking re my well being
by janice2 on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:55 am
Can you believe this, sucking & crawling to your boss openly:
by The Finnigans on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:58 am
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/06/a-tilt-in-australian-liberalism/
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:59 am
BB
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:59 am
@AboutTheHouse: Last sittings for the week beginning in the House – remember you can watch live or follow along on live minutes http://t.co/7Y2UtJV1
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:00 am
Confessions
the # of people visiting the govt website with the assistance package has gone up six-fold since March and has remained consistently highr.
by bluegreen on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:00 am
Morning. The first item of business in the Senate today (9.30) is the swearing in of the two new Tasmanian senators.
Laocoon
I wouldn’t want to lose him from the ABC, especially from the finance segments on the news. No one else can do them so well.
by triton on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:01 am
I notice that no media person at yesterday’s CPC has mentioned Greg Combet’s reply to a Q re whether he anticipated Tony Abbott’s reaction to CP legislation:
Combet: Did I anticipate Tony Abbott would be a gutless opportunist. Yes.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:02 am
janice2
Perhaps reading PB does not help either.
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:02 am
OPT
The address by Combet was bad timing. No fault of his. It is just hard to compete with all the navel gazing by media as they try and work out the chances of retaining their job.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:05 am
9:09 Winter Solstice.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:05 am
As the first person to identify this I claim a gold star. Now I am waiting for my royalties to flow through for the use of the “Murdoch Minute”
by bluegreen on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:06 am
Victoria,
by janice2 on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:06 am
Vic, its not just an urban myth. Reading too much PB will make you go blind…
by bluegreen on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:07 am
Vic, its not just an urban myth. Reading too much PB will make you go blind…
by bluegreen on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:07 am
The Fed Chair is not happy
@CNN: RT @OutFrontCNN Happening now: @ErinBurnett breaks down Bernanke comments today: We need Congress to do their jobs #cnn #outfront (watch)
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:08 am
Labor seemed much more spririted without JG yesterday. I think the Liberal states give them something much more interesting to write dixers about.
by bluegreen on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:09 am
If you want to have some fun, check out Lee Rhiannon’s twitter stream from Lateline last night. Her rhetoric sounded like Abbott from the left
More reason for the ALP to end the formal alliance with the Greens
by spur212 on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:09 am
confessions @ 4779
The media are simply stocking up for the next installment re Thomson Fess. That is if and when it goes into the Federal court. We should know within the month based on the timeline for Jeff Jackson & et al where I recall the 1st installment in the courts was to be sometime in June.
by Gauss on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:10 am
s212
Labor is not stupid. They will keep the formal alliance with the Greens. Labor does not want an election NOW! Not even Kevin Rudd.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:10 am
poroti
Governments are like any other organisation; give them necessary powers, and they’ll misuse them.
That doesn’t mean the powers aren’t necessary, but that they need to be scrutinised.
There are many quite legitimate reasons for governments to keep some information secret —-
off the top of my head:
1. To protect people. I’ve given the example of witnesses under police protection. The other pertinent example are women in fear of abusive partners, and children who might be abducted by non custodial parents. In both cases, Australian governments (as these are usually state actions) conceal names and locations.
Do you think that a woman in fear of her life should have her details released publically in the name of transparency?
2. To prevent diplomatic incidents, including potential wars.
There’s no doubt, for example, that leaking Rudd’s suggestions to the US about China caused tensions between us and that country. I don’t think anything Rudd said was incorrect, but the fact that they were made public insulted China.
3. To allow people to trust their government with information.
People tell government officials (either directly or via forms) personal information every day. They would be reluctant to do this if that information was going to be released publically.
4. To protect commercially sensitive information.
There are lots of other reasons, but they’ll do for starters.
Yes, because governments have the power to keep information secret, they sometimes misuse that power to keep information secret when they shouldn’t.
(We all do that!)
But because they shouldn’t keep some things secret does not mean they should keep nothing secret.
by zoomster on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:10 am
OzPol
What was David Cameron wearing?
by MTBW on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:11 am
I agree. He has an ability to handle serious matters with a light, humorous touch, and his use of graphs illustrates the old adage “a picture is worth 1,000 words”. People with little understanding of economics do discuss his segment. He’s a good teacher.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:11 am
@washingtonpost: 19 years after Oxford offered it to her, Aung San Suu Kyi was able to accept her honorary degree: http://t.co/yDNyWDFu
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:13 am
Gauss
You must be looking forward to the msm being able to report the stuff Roxon says is before the courts. I know I cant wait. Sounds very interesting indeed
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:14 am
Very well tailored (London for sure) very safe, very boring blue on the vid I saw. Sometimes he wears a slightly less boringly conservative tie – occasionally a college or club one. Neither Cameron would make fashion news.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:18 am
Skype keeps asking me to install updates, but I’ve heard they’re now sending ads in the data stream.
So… should I update?
(Everything works fine, BTW, so I don’t feel I needan update).
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:18 am
OzPol
Does any of this matter?
by MTBW on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:19 am
The historic pattern of events which leads to government regulation of an industry:
1. To begin with, there’s open slather. No rules whatsoever.
This inevitably leads to some kind of abuse of power – customers being ripped off, laws being broken, etc.
Which leads to….
2. Individual actions, via complaints/court cases etc….
This inevitably leads to (some) companies working out ways to get around these…
Which leads to individuals abandoning these forms of redress, and instead pressuring the government of the day to act.
Which leads to…
3. Industry setting up its own watchdog, in an attempt to avoid government control.
Inevitably, such watchdogs tend to favour the industry over the complainants (after all, we’re all good guys, we wouldn’t behave that way…).
Which leads to..
4. Government regulation.
So it’s not surprising we hear cries from the media that government interference isn’t necessary.
However, if they’re really concerned to prevent that, the answer is to take a good hard look at their industry and work out why it is that their customers are still unhappy with them.
So far, they’ve shown no ability or desire to do that. (The customer, when it comes to the media, isn’t always right. Quite the reverse).
So 4 is inevitable.
by zoomster on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:20 am
I find Phil Coorey one of the better journalists. In fact, I think he leans towards the ALP. I have never seen him as a flag waver for Rudd, in particualr, particularly in relation to Gillard.
I don’t think his piece is designed to undermine the ALP’s position in any upcoming Newspoll. In fact, I think that suggestion is way off the mark.
It is a slow news day, however.
There is going to be leadership talk on both sides of the fence, particularly given ALP’s poor polling position currently and the fact Abbott is on the nose and sitting behind him are a number of very ambitious people. It is something I try to live with. I don’t like it and I have long held the view that a reversion to Rudd (or another leader) will have many negatives for the ALP.
by Lynchpin on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:20 am
There’s virtually no QLD Labor party left, so Premier Newman doesn’t really need to cut funding to unions up there.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:22 am
I remember a comedian describing how bland mens’ business fashion was.
“You know, it’s obvious that mens’ suits were designed by women. Who else would just think ‘Oh, all men are the same!’”
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 21, 2012 at 9:24 am