Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
TLM @ 4872
I don’t agree with a lot of what you write, but this is certainly correct:
Why do they have all the angst about it?
It will only come about when the majority of caucus decide it is necessary, not when confessions gets to her ten thousandth post as to why it should never happen etc.
by bemused on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:05 am
Perhaps William or others more mathematically minded than me can help with something.
I still hear quite a bit the old orthodoxy that Labor needs around a 40% primary vote to win an election. I’ve even heard God (Keating) say it.
It seems to me though, that with the Greens polling around 10-12% and with an 80% preference flow back to Labor, that this actually isn’t the case.
If Labor’s primary vote is currently at say 30%, and the TPP is around 54-46 or 55-35, it would seem to me Labor could get there with a priimary vote of around 35-37%, if it takes half of that vote from the LNP and half from the Greens.
Or am I looking at this in a completely flawed way?
by Burgey on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:05 am
Rex Douglas
Great! Did Faine give any further hints??
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:08 am
Census 300,000 people short? Has anyone blamed “the boats” yet?
by ShiftyPhil on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:09 am
@lenoretaylor: Waiting for a bus in the rain in rio – Gillard just got to tool around with ban ki- moon in a golf buggy #rio
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:10 am
Burgey
They need about the same as they got at the last election.
by bluegreen on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:10 am
Burgey
Depends on the Green vote split. I think you are on the money myself.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:11 am
Vic, no hints – just whispers he’s getting
by Rex Douglas on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:11 am
You really didn’t like my reaction to your smartarsked remark, did you? Save sour bitching for someone who didn’t spend a quarter of a century teaching smart-mouthed high school kids.
Of course apparel matters! And fashion can be great fun!
Clothing (and the industries which support it), gold and silver mining, gemstone mining, cutting & setting, are very significant contributors to global economies; certainly to Australian primary industries inc gem mining: Argyle diamond mines – as well as pearls, opals, sapphires, gold, silver – have made this county a fortune for 160+ years – and there are known back-up resources when Argyle runs out.
Besides, being well-dressed is no more expensive than looking like a rag-bag – less exploitative of poor people in developing countries (where most cheap cloth & clothing are made) and far more respectful of one’s clients (in my case, students). Nor does it take more effort.
I almost never buy retail apparel; I’ve shopped at craft shops/ stalls, recycle boutiques, markets, charity shops for most of my life & now on ebay and those craft stores refugee migrants are opening all over Oz.
Get over it!
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:12 am
Rex Douglas
Whispers that will be a loud roar soon enough me thinks. Roxon had a glint in her eye when she was asked about the case yesterday. I am impatient fool. I cant wait
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:12 am
Mick Collins @ 4884
Sorry Mick, I share you sentiments about supporting the party/leader whoever it is, but many of the “Julia Cultists” on here have made it clear that they support her, and not the party, and will do a major dummy spit if she is replaced.
BTW, there are only a handful of those favouring Julia Gillard for the leadership that I would see as the “cultists”. Most are not and I respect their position while disagreeing.
Although I seem to have a different opinion to you about the leadership, I am as one with you on the issue of supporting the party whoever the leader is.
I don’t want to get embroiled in any argument over the leadership as it is in the hands of caucus.
by bemused on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:13 am
OPT
I am loving your style.
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:14 am
Watching Hilderbarnds show last nite “Dumb Drunk and Racist” the thought occured to me, John Howard unleashed a dark underbelly withing Australias Culture.
I’m struggling to think of who was Dumber, the bloke who painted the “burker” mural or the other bloke who came out of nowhere and started to abuse him
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:14 am
anyone get the AFR?
by bluegreen on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:14 am
Lenore Taylor’s contribution from Rio.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillard-plays-down-rio-summits-agreement-20120621-20p66.html
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:14 am
4870 Spur212 ["Essential this week showed that the only issue the ALP are ahead on is IR."]
So you want to bring in first past the post do you? Clearly in several of those issues the progressive vote is split and if the choice was purely between the ALP and the Coalition the ALP would be favoured.
by Haydn on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:14 am
Jackson has given the affidavit she could not read in the Federal Court to the AFR which has reproduced slabs of it on today’s dead tree version (60-61).
Mainly targets Williamson
by shellbell on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:15 am
No news about Craig Thomson? I’m thirsting for a good hooker story!
by New Paradigm on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:15 am
shift phil. i think the carbon tax got ‘em.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:16 am
BG
There is a bit of shit poured on Shorten and some falling out they had but otherwise nothing new
by shellbell on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:16 am
shell
Could that action by Jackson in any way be seen as contempt of court.?
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:17 am
Rex
Did Faine leave you with the impression that the ‘tsunami” would be detrimental to those attacking Slipper?
by Darn on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:17 am
Burgey,
Assuming the Greens PV and the preference flow back to Labor remain at around the 12%/80% level then 38% PV for Labor puts them in the game, but like the current parliament it could end up with any of three results (win/loss/no majority government for either side).
Similarly the Coalition probably need 43% or more to be in the game, unless a new right wing party like Katter’s emerges with a significant (say 4%) block of votes.
40% PV for Labor with a +10% Greens vote is a virtually certain ALP government, but they can win with less.
by ratsak on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:17 am
New Paradiigm
Story is that lots of people use hookers. Actually I prefer to call them sex workers. Might be interesting for some to know that people use this service all the time. Have been for thousands of years. How excitement. Dont you think?
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:18 am
He dropped a big one in regard to Clive Palmer involvement…but hint only.
by joe2 on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:19 am
Darn
I know it is detrimental to Ashby and The LNP. Roxon has confirmed as much. That is why I cant wait
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:19 am
4888
Thats all i was ever trying to point out
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:19 am
Gerry Harvey will blame the high A$ (it was mid2011), probably with more accuracy than is his wont. After all, the Census is held in the middle of the peak OS tourist season!
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:19 am
Parents can tell him ‘ yep, I’m buying the kids a computer … online’
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:19 am
guytaur
There is no prohibition on giving journos your own evidence especially once a case is dead which this one will be in about two hours
by shellbell on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:20 am
joe2
We already speculated that Palmer may be the money bags in all this
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:20 am
Kathy Jackson says Shorten abused and physically threatened her. I don’t buy it one bit
http://www.afr.com/p/national/shorten_abused_and_threatened_me_SOv2bPJRkmwjb5BAKn4QHK
http://www.afr.com/p/national/how_jackson_suspicions_were_aroused_pVpIT53vEHF75Y7nwcWyQP
by spur212 on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:21 am
The 1992 Rio Earth Summit was one of the most successful summits in my lifetime. Amongst other things it resulted in the Convention on Biological Diversity which in turn lead to a swathe of policies and legislation that were ultimately put in place by Robert Hill.
-EPBC Act
-National Reserve System
-Regional Forest Agreements
-Natural Heritage Trust
Hard to imagine a suite of pro-environment reforms like that now.
by bluegreen on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:21 am
Victoria
It’s not called the oldest profession for nothing!
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:22 am
Hey finns
el Slacko is using her 8 cents a day wisely as usual. pushing leadershit again today.
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:22 am
OPT
Indeed!
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:22 am
shell
Thanks
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:22 am
I think AusLabor is finally has some ideas about getting the message out
‘
https://twitter.com/AustralianLabor/status/215591319790305281/photo/1
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:23 am
It would be a surprise to rank up there with:
* Scientists Baffled – Water discovered to be wet
* Sun rises in the East – Who knew?
* Political Shock – Abbott says No.
by ratsak on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:24 am
..by and large, you picked it.
by Lynchpin on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:25 am
ratsak
I suspect that quite a few LNP identities are going to be fully covered in mud. Cant wait
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:26 am
View details ·
View details ·
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:26 am
@abcnews: The Labor Party’s campaign in next year’s federal election has been dealt a serious financial blow in Queensland http://t.co/lSw6vYeS
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:27 am
Haydn
The only issues the Greens get any traction on according to that Essential poll are protecting the environment, climate change, ensuring a quality water supply and asylum seekers.
The fact that the ALP themselves are behind the Coalition on education, health and housing affordability is extremely alarming.
If you add the Greens to the ALP on those issues you get:
Education: ALP 38, L/NP 35
Health: ALP 37, L/NP 36
Protecting Jobs and Local Industry: ALP 35, L/NP 35
Housing Affordability: ALP 27, L/NP 33
That’s quite simply abysmal. The ALP on their own should be well ahead on all issues
by spur212 on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:27 am
rexJ and victoria – how about the glint and gleam in Albo’s eyes!
So Jackson is going to the media once again for cover for herself. She’s learned well from her Liberal connections.
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:31 am
…the actions of a dictator.
by Lynchpin on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:31 am
guytaur. I’ve mentioned here a few times my 1% rule of politics. It’s that every decision you make as a govt pisses off at least 1% of people. and over time you piss enough to get voted out… well Can Do is well and truly using up his quota in quick time. as predicted he has been the ALP’s best performing campaigner since he won the election.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:32 am
@spur212/4943
Its because Labor are not in spending spree mode like they usually do.
by zoidlord on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:33 am
Tricot @ 4896
That got me thinking it would be good to have some comedy team such as the Chaser doing a live sunrise broadcast from Whyalla on 1st July to see if it disappears….
Abbott’s hyperbowl should provide a rich source of satire around 1st July and if there could just be a critical mass of it, it might do the trick and turn him into an object of ridicule by most people. Once that happens, he is dead meat politically.
by bemused on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:33 am
mm
Yes indeed. Today he has changed Civil Unions to registrations like you do with dogs and cars.
Now he attacks unions to try and shore up his next election campaign. Incidentally attacking the Labor party as well. This will piss off all the freedom principled people including those that might otherwise vote for the LNP.
@latikambourke: Legislation introduced into parliament to establish a new Military court after the High Court ruled the old one was unconstitutional.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:36 am