Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
Page 1 of 3 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
BH,
That info graphic is a great start, but I’d love to see them doing an interactive one where as you answer some simple questions it provides you with details of all of the goodies the government has provided (and the things Abbott is threatening to rip away). Those things are powerful and fun and a great way to target people without having your message distorted through the media filter. With high internet use by older people it doesn’t miss too many target audiences (non-english versions should be simple enough too), and it can made into an app for the tablet/smartphone.
So much more powerful than any parliamentary speech or press conference.
by ratsak on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:36 am
A mini-Joh
by Gecko on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:36 am
@Lynchpin/4945
Yup, He’s a dictator trying to hold his majority for ever and ever.
Just watch his other evil twin do it on a Federal level.
by zoidlord on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:37 am
bemused. great idea. even having those stupid weather blokes from the morning shows in Whyalla would be amusing.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:38 am
And the flemsy excuse that newman “He saw a report”.
by zoidlord on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:39 am
BH
Albo is on fire atm. He knows what we dont.
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:39 am
Not at all! Tony Burke has just tabled a ‘landmark’ plan for protection of Australia’s marine environment; a plan likely to become an international prototype as more nations awake to the threat posed by degradation of oceanic and inland marine/ lake environments – major sources of food, CO2 absorption and other benefits.
Rio1 was the “start-up” conference, a great confluence of dreams and ideas coalescing into a broad action plan – in planning terms, the initial strategic planning conference, defining vision, aims, goals, objectives etc (I’ve used the 1992 terms).
20 years down the track (and closer to the reality of benchmarking target years) what was planned in 1992 has passed the “tactical” phase (c2002 with initial UK, EuroZone implementation) and well into the operational phase as more and more nations and states legislate ETSs.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:40 am
Vic, Where is Albo talking now?
by Lynchpin on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:40 am
How about we make July 1 a Whyalla day on twitter?
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:40 am
Lynchpin
BH and I are referring to Albo’s performance in QT. He is giving it to the LNP with both barrels generally. He is brimming with confidence and passion!
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:42 am
I understand that a number of people on this blog consider that the ABC is biased against the Government. I offer the report below as a classic example.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/tax-is-no-deterrent-for-investors-says-shell-boss-20120620-20omm.html#ixzz1yLnKxzsS
Compare the subsequent news coverage that the ABC has given to these extremely favourable comments made on the 7.30 report with the wall to wall reporting of those a few months ago on the same subject by that moron David Murray. Then again what would the chief executive of Shell know compared to a clown who denies climate change and thinks the hammock dweller was a great Treasurer.
It is worth reading the entire short article linked above.
by CO on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:42 am
@ABCNews24: Prime Minister @JuliaGillard has arrived in Rio and has been speaking to the media. Watch now: http://t.co/AhggUgUN
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:43 am
guytaur
Instead of Where’s Wally ? we play Where’s Whyalla ?
by poroti on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:46 am
Burgey I think Labor needs a primary vote of at least 38% to be in the game and then it depends on the split of the remaining 62%. If the Coalition has a primary vote of 45% or higher then the job for Labor gets more difficult.
As a general idea a split of 40/44/10/6 (Labor/LNP/Green/Others) comes out at around 50/50 2PP based on 2010 preference allocations.
Of course it always comes down to where any swing happens and how each side do in the very close seats. You seldom get a consistent swing across the country.
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:49 am
The point about the “what Labor needs” of the PV (say 35%) or conservatives (say 43%) is all based on uniform swings.
As Labor learnt to its cost with big Kimbo, you can actually win the TPP by a percentage or two and still not have enough seats.
It was galling for the progressives back when KB suffered this against JWH and it is something the conservatives, now they are in opposition, still haven’t come to grips with.
Not much good say, getting 55% of the PV in Victoria with a gain of say 1-2 seats (haven’t done the actually calculations) but for the PV in Queensland to be at say 35% and see 6 seats go to the conservatives even though the “average” PV for the Labor is 40%
These are the rules of the current game and hence what happens in Queensland does have sufficient clout to be the tail of the dog, wagging the dog.
The real battle ground should still be NSW – together with Victoria and perhaps Tassie and SA (though I gather things are not so bright in SA as they have been poll-wise) where any “disaster” (predicted in Queensland apparently) may be contained.
WA really doesn’t count for much. 5/15 held by Labor currently which on a bad-bad day could be 3/15 but on a good day 7/15.
Shame at the last election, the two close seats here in Perth did not go Labor’s way.
There was not much in it but I wonder what the current sentiment is?
One thing is becoming clear Emperor Barnett is looking increasingly naked.
by Tricot on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:52 am
So here’s some interesting news: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillard-to-cochair-un-group-tackling-poverty-20120621-20pdw.html
The contrast between what actually happens to Gillard overseas and what gets reported about her overseas (i.e. the ‘GILLARD SLAPPED DOWN’ crap from the other day) is pretty telling.
by rishane on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:55 am
Agree Tricot the next election will largely be decided in NSW. Labor managed to hang on to NSW seats in 2010 that were unexpected given the swings in play. These seats will again be the key factor.
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:55 am
Did the IPSOS KPMG survey last night (30 mins) on my media usage. Realised I did no pay one cent towards any media source except Foxtel. Even that had an answer “expect to cancel service in the next 12 months”. Poor buggers, I didn’t even have a paid subscription to any news website.
It is not the beginning of the end, it is not the end of the beginning; it is the end – full stop.
by JohD on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:56 am
Thanks Vic. Yes, I saw him yesterday, very good. As were Shorten and Combet.
by Lynchpin on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:56 am
What on earth is this about?
http://www.2gb.com/index2.php?option=com_newsmanager&task=view&id=12080#.T-Jp68xW7KM.facebook
Is Gai Brodtmann a complete idiot?
by JohD on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:57 am
Ratsak@4950 – Interactive is the way to go. Will send that suggestion back. AusLabor is working harder on that type of thing but still in infancy.
A couple of young NSW Fed pollies are -
I’ve signed on to this but it will be an additional outlet for those members who work long hours and find Party meetings difficult to fit in.
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:58 am
Tricot
If the ALP can get some sort of swing in QLD and WA from the last election, there’s around 9 seats up for grabs.
Those 9 plus Denison and Melbourne would be great.
More a case of saving seats in other states
by spur212 on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:59 am
See #4019
Yesterday, I spent considerable time tracking credible references to show that Cando CAN’T do it because of (among other things) the HCA Gordon-below-Franklin decision re the Commonwealth’s ability to legislate re affairs & events covered by international treaties, and 1993 legislation which clarified (more or less) Right of Association, and I cited an article on the right to contribute to electoral campaigns.
The HCA’s GbF decision – and our signature on the original UNO- ILO Charter (an Oz initiative) is often cited as the reason Joh didn’t try on what CantDo is threatening (just as the Q1910 referendum is the reason Joh didn’t try to change existing regulations re Religious Ed, inc those re clergy in school rooms & grounds).
Trying it on would be a monumental waste of Q money on an HCA fight the LNP can’t win.
I can repost #4019 if people don’t want to trawl back. It’s quite long.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:59 am
The Jackson affidavit is front page of the AFR, under the (usual) red “Exclusive”, with the headline:
To me, however, it reads like an absolutely ridiculous bodice ripper…
But our damsel is made of sterner stuff
It’s gold. Real Miss Joan Wilder stuff.
(Bit of gratuitous character assassination of Bill Shorten by the AFR though, right on the front page)
by Laocoon on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:00 am
The next election will be decided in QLD & NSW, VIC won’t be a factor.
NSW: Labor needs to retain Robertson, Lindsay, Page, Eden Monaro, Banks.
QLD: Labor’s got to somehow retain everything they’ve now got, & pick up Brisbane & Forde as extra gains.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:00 am
Laocoon
How unsurprising the AFR are not interested in the dodgy accounting being exposed re KJackson and Her former Husband
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:02 am
TLM
Only one way that will happen
But probably if that happened it would be a landslide and marginal seats wouldn’t matter.
by bluegreen on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:02 am
Having said that I still think that a primary of 38% is the point when we can say Labor is back in the game.
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:04 am
I wouldn’t rush. I was born in Whyalla. Due to distance and refrigeration we didn’t get ice-cream until the mid sixties. Water from Morgan probably arrived a fortnight after it was sent. The arrival of traffic lights so ‘out there’ even the police used them for drag racing on the weekends. If it was wiped off the map July 1… its likely news about such a catastrophe wouldn’t reach inhabitants until well after the event.
by Gecko on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:05 am
Mr Stickemthenbury is leading the Fairfax charge into the world of tabloid.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:07 am
JohD @ 4969
On the basis of that evidence – YES!
Must have caught it of hubby.
by bemused on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:07 am
A figure they haven’t been at since the last election and are currently 7 points short of.
by bluegreen on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:08 am
Thornleigh Labor Man
I think if the ALP can get some sort of swing above 1% from the last election (35%+ Primary Vote) in Queensland, the seats could tumble
by spur212 on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:08 am
Way ahead of you, buddy. I tweeted this yesterday:
by Danny Lewis on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:09 am
Thanks everyone for your thoughts on the ALP primary needed to win next time around.
by Burgey on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:10 am
If Labor get a 35+ PV in Queensland in 2013 I will eat my hat.
by gloryconsequence on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:10 am
BG somewhere between 5 and 11 points depending on which poll you believe however I think 6/7 is about right.
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:10 am
Now can we go back to talking about Rudd v Gillard? Just for something different
by Burgey on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:10 am
@bg/4976
It won’t happen because newman is restricting Labor party in QLD (re: unions).
by zoidlord on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:10 am
So it doesn’t matter who is leading Labor at Federal level, QLD Labor is stuffed either way.
by zoidlord on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:12 am
gloryconsequence
The way things currently are, so would I
by spur212 on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:12 am
victoria
For me the AFR has become a bit of a joke. The only really useful parts for me are
* the ads – at least you know they are authoritative
* the gossip columns – you know they are not authoritative, but at least you might get some useful information.
by Laocoon on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:12 am
SIN BIN
by Gecko on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:12 am
Like to think WA could provide 2 extra seats, but at this stage, and I say, at this stage, I think Labor will do well to hold 5 in WA.
True, there are two in play – based on 2010 – but all the runes have to fall in the one way.
WA like Queensland, has never been that friendly to Federal Labor.
At the very best maybe 8/15. On a bad day 1 or 0 from 15.
Apart from anything else, a seat like Kalgoorlie – a “mining seat” but actually about the size of France, has still got lots of miners but they are all earning huge $$$. They do not identify – much – with Labor these days.
Then there are the four or five kind of semi-rural seats – say round the SW who also see Labor as a bogey.
That just leaves the metro seats of which 2 are solid Liberal, while Labor and Libs see-saw over about 8 others.
In any event, can’t see a huge gain for Labor at the moment.
However, it must be said that the Emperor is having a hard time at the moment and, on the thesis held my some of Federal Labor strong when States weak and vice versa, who knows what might be the case in the next 15 months.
by Tricot on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:13 am
Newman is just playing politics and leveraging off current union problems caused by HSU. I think a big majority of Australians including union members want to see unions held to a much higher standard of governance. Members have a right to receive financial reports showing how their union funds are used. Newman is playing to this sentiment and it will likely work a treat for a while.
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:15 am
BTW, postscript to #4972 … (Should have remembered this yesterday!)
Wasn’t Freedom of Association used to beat antiOutlaw-Bikie laws? Bikies High Court Victory.
Bikie law scrutiny bid denied
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:15 am
Money Power And Wall Street Part 3
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:17 am
Laocoon #4973: Could have been worse.
I understand that these days Mills and Boon aren’t as coy as they used to be when it gets to the juicy bits (more like Pride and Promiscuity than Pride and Prejudice) and we might be reading about veins standng out on more than his forehead as she melts under his rough kisses and his manhood rises to meet her sudden and urgent need etc etc …
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:17 am
@davidwh/4994
No he’s not, there are (I don’t think) any union issues in QLD.
by zoidlord on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:19 am
Tricot
Right now, the federal ALP only holds 3 seats in WA: Brand, Freemantle and Perth.
These seats are winnable if there’s a swing to the ALP in WA:
Hasluck 0.6%
Canning 2.2%
Swan 2.5%
The rest are probably out of reach as they’re above 5% margins
by spur212 on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:21 am