Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Wasn’t it Hartigan (NoosLtd) who wanted all journos out of Canberra? I reckon that’s a good thing. Just leave someone like AAP there to report and distribute factual reporting.
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:02 pm
SK
I cant recall Which bludgers, but there were are couple who were getting credits for feeding power back into the grid.
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:02 pm
@AdamBoland7: Perhaps no surprise but median weekly rents in Sydney up 40% since the last #census in 2006.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:03 pm
There are no virgin sheep in NZ are there?
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:03 pm
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:03 pm
I got the distinct impression, judging by the “verbatim” nature of her affidavit, that Kathy Jackson bugged her conversation with Shorten… as far back as 2007!
She is one seriously deranged person. It could be “back to the looney bin” for her, methinks.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:03 pm
I am going to link tweets by Frances Jones
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:04 pm
@JohD/5047
This is coming from Boltra.
“But Government already has too much power over opinion forming – especially as the big private media outfits crumble.”
If thats the case, why can’t they get freaking message out?
by zoidlord on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:04 pm
At least it’s easier to extend the tatt by 10 cm than remove 10 cm.
by triton on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Is the HSU East decision today?
by adam abdool on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:04 pm
I have had abcnews24 on his morning. The only place I learned about JG’s appointment as co-chair of the UN group is on PB.
Abcnews24 is doing the Abbt presser live soon.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:04 pm
aa
Yes
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:05 pm
@watermelon_man: Surely Abbott should be paying for the excessive number of his appearances on ABC Mark Scott. #freepromotion
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:05 pm
victoria,
Thanks. I know we were discussing it a while ago but I couldn’t recall if we got into that much detail.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:05 pm
#fakeAbbott# says:
I know some people have been getting stuck into Boffa for doing f*ck all. But, hey, softly, softly catchee monkey! He has got a decade in the job. His best work is ahead of him. Wait til I get the job falsely occupied by that lying witch. Then me and Boffa can do tag team.
*nod, nod, nod, nod*
It is great to see Boffa is cutting back on the moolah for injured workers. F**k ‘em all. Parasites. Once again, Boffa is in line with the Coalition Vision Statement:
Suck up to the rich; whack the ordinary Joe; root the environment.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:06 pm
Good grief – I can hear my old bloke cheering from his ‘cave’ outside. He’s been writing ‘atheist’ on the census form since the 50s and said he used to feel a little guilty about it but eventually grew up and stopped.
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:06 pm
You guuys are misreading the Canberra Times Announcement. Previous each of the SMH, Age and Canberra Times had their own staff covering Federal Politics. What this means is that the Canberra Times will no longer have staff doing this.
It does not mean that Fairfax staff are not based in Canberra. It means less diversity not more.
by bluegreen on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:06 pm
Religion continues its trend down
by Musrum on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:07 pm
The Canberra Times parliamentary bureau is a goner.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:08 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-21/firies-may-shut-nsw-stations-over-workcover-shake-up/4083250
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:08 pm
bg
Awwwww. Destroyer of hope.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:08 pm
bg
I am not alone
@meadea: What shocking news, Canberra Times press gallery to close. #fairfax
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:10 pm
SK @5048
Depends on your state and company.
I’m with Energy Australia in NSW and it is writ down as a credit on my account. But I make a phone call after every bill and ask that they send me a cheque for my credit, and they do so.
by psyclaw on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:10 pm
Some even have four legs
by poroti on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:11 pm
poroti
It is not how many sheep. It is how good they are at what they do.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:12 pm
Rasmussen Tracking and Gallup have Romney ahead by 2.
Lets hope Bloomberg is the start of something good for Obama (although I note that that Bloomberg polls is of Likely Voters rather than Registered Voters)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
by spur212 on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:13 pm
psyclaw,
Thanks. May I ask (and if it too much info you don’t want to give, I understand)
no. in house.
size of system
size of return?
I’m about to build and want to put the system in but I’m trying to understand the ‘return’ a little better.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:14 pm
meanwhile over in #newscorpse, a degree of triumphalism has broken out over Kim Williams announcement yesterday
http://media.crikey.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/News-news-wrap-June-21.jpg
looks like a win-win-win scenario to me
by sprocket_ on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:14 pm
the thing with Fire Fighters striking is they have some of the highest trust levels as a profession. you don’t want these people against you in the public domain.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:17 pm
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Space Kidette@5048
Only just got mine, so haven’t got first hand knowledge, but it depends on your retailer and which state you’re in.
Most will provide a cheque; some automatically every 12 months, some when you request it.
by ShiftyPhil on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Abbott presser. Bagging conference in Rio.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Abbott bagging PM at forum. Must not have heard of Co Chair position.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:18 pm
sk
Will let you relay Abbott this time. Gives me a break.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Huge news: Tony Abbott complains about world’s biggest carbon tax.
by triton on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:19 pm
BH
I wrote “incredulous” on my form.
Am I the only one in queensland.
by Pipe Fitter on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Boats. Had to get them in.
by triton on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Tony Abbott
Inbred
Inward looking
Little Man
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Bloody Journalists do your job. Challenge Abbott assertions with known facts.!!!!!!!!!!
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:22 pm
I can’t make out the questions, but from answers I gather he’s being asked Dorothy Dixers.
by triton on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:22 pm
@triton/5084
lol world’s biggest carbon tax, hello, I think Sweden might take that cake.
by zoidlord on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:22 pm
RAbbott in his regular ABC slot RAbbotting on:
1. Bagging JG at conference
2. Bagging Carbon Price
3. Stopping 3 more boats
4. Bagging JG again about lecturing her overseas counterparts
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:22 pm
Yesterday I posted on the nonsense that Ms Bishop was spouting on Mr Assange and on Mr Carr’s efforts in Libya. I predicted that she would be made to look a fool as a result.
In today’s ‘The Australian’ in an article headed ‘Bishop’s rejection to refugess stunt pathetic’, Mr Sheridan agrees. In fact, he says, ‘…an almost make you despair of Bishop.’
He goes on to say:
‘Carr is absolutely right to have visited Libya and to have done everything he possibly could to secure Taylor’s release.
He deserves nothing but praise for putting himself in some discomfort to go to Libya on Taylor’s behalf.
For the Opposition to equate Assange with Taylor is pathetic.
It really is a case of taking cheap-jack political point scoring to a new low.
Bishop has grown into her job and had recently been doing much better.
But her intervention in this case suggest an almost complete absence of common sense or basic political principle.’
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:22 pm
A sensible conclusion to an article on the continuing disaster of Sydney rail. Subdivide in haste and repent at leisure: hard to turnaround 40+ years of public transport mismanagement
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/for-some-reason-logic-dictates-the-original-plan-should-be-binned-20120620-20omg.html#ixzz1yOGqr7YY
by Laocoon on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:22 pm
@LouiseCHall : As Justice Flick about to give judgment in #HSU, her barrister applies to reopen the case
@LouiseCHall: Justice Flick rejects Kathy Jackson’s submission that she hasn’t had a fair trial #HSU
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:23 pm
@latikambourke: The PM’s joined Instagram and is following just one person – Australian Labor: http://t.co/FqZZmBmM
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:23 pm
#fakeAbbott#
Great news! Rio plus 20 will achieve nothing. The climate’s rooted for sure.
Coalition Vision Statement: Suck up to the rich, whack the ordinary Joe, root the environment.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:24 pm
Abbott hopes that the government is “big enough” to work with the opposition to continue chaplaincy program. Tony, the government has already given its strong support. They’ll be coming to you with a proposal, not the other way around.
by triton on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Abbott thinks “For once, just for once, the government should be prepared to work practically with the Opposition.”
Don’t worry, Greg Hunt’s going to sort out state governments.
Jesus wept.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Phil Coorey asking a question about his own article on Ruddstoration. Nice bootstrap.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:26 pm