Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Between Can Do’s strong campigning for the ALP and the Strawberry Fields Forever gang, the ALP might just get a little surprise out of QLD at the next Fed poll.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:49 pm
ratsak
Thanks. I loved your ‘Song of Abbott’
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Something of a cross between MORE and ROAR!!!
by Lynchpin on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Mick Collins
faine said that he is hearing whispers that a tsunami is on its way re Ashby, and hinted something about Palmer
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Space Kidette@5122,
It’s going to be a fair old fight between Rupert Murdoch/News Ltd and the legal system in the coming years because that is the only thing he can’t control really. Other than that he has made the right plays recently to go big up on the digital footprint.
So I guess all we can hope for there is that his company may be broken up down the line if negative legal consequences occur in the US and the UK. Then we can only hope it has a knock-on effect here in Oz. Or, the Gillard government devises a way to outsmart the Fox legislatively. However Paul Keating tried and failed miserably at that. Rupert managed to find loopholes to sleaze through so that he could end up in the position he is in today, with 70% and rising of the media market in Australia.
As far as Gina Rinehart goes. How could anyone take her naked grab for power and influence, as a result of taking over Fairfax, seriously?
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:51 pm
SK our system 1.5 kw with about 600 dollars up over summer. We have very low energy use appliances and were lucky enough to get in before Ted changed the tariff.
by joe2 on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:51 pm
@AboutTheHouse: Today’s MPI proposed by Mr Hockey: “The adverse impact of Government policy management on Australia’s sovereign risk profile.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:52 pm
so the Palmer for Canberra joke is a unicorn play… look over there!
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:52 pm
victoria – our daughter and SIL feedback. I don’t understand it properly but their electricity bill (huge house 2 adult kids) is 1/4 of what it used to be. They were dreadful at leaving all power points on, computers & TVs on standby and light on all over the place and finally realised they were paying through the nose for being stupid. Things have changed and they brag about their power bills now instead of screaming about them.
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:52 pm
A question for the more psephologically minded ….
The census figures today reveal that the NT is growing at less than the national average and the ACT more. However both have 2 reps seats – but the total of the 2 NT seats is less than the enrolment of either ACT seat.
When is the ACT going to get a third seat or the NT lose its second seat?
by blackburnpseph on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Coorey clearly now gunning for Maidens job……
by Rex Douglas on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:52 pm
TAKE ME TO THE END OF THIS THREAD
_________________________________
by ShowsOn on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:53 pm
#fakeAbbott# says,
That is crap. Married gays don’t count, don’t add up, and make me twice as nervous as single gays.
When I am Pres I am going to sack the Census people, top priority. On top of the other 10,000.
‘Suck up to the rich; whack the ordinary Joe; root the environment’
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Patricia,
It is the size of the system you purhased, 2kw, 5kw etc. If you don’t know that is ok, I didn’t want to put you out.
Thanks so much for the information, and the beaut picture you painted of your housemates. Sounds blissful. (Unless they are hogging the heater!)
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:53 pm
davidwh
He might have to get past current nimber 3 Helen Clark. She would rip his arms off .
by poroti on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:53 pm
@latikambourke: The Four Leaders, past and present, auctioning themselves. So who will be determined the most lucrative of them all? http://t.co/512tq5jd
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:54 pm
c@tmomma. if she does launch a takeover, it will any erode any goodwill that remains. it’s news will be tainted and worthless.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:54 pm
bbs
Coz, that’s why.
ACT citizens are the least represented in Australia but they have to put up with more fed politicians from everywhere else than anyone else.
Not fair.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:54 pm
joe2,
Thanks! How many in your house?
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:55 pm
victoria – I had an email from a Vic friend who said Faine intimated that besides Palmer there are a lot more LNP bods involved in the Ashby/Slipper case. It’s getting a bit murky but probably why Abbott and PYne have been very careful this week with SSOs.
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:57 pm
i linked yesterday to an article about Fairfax’s third largest shareholder which is a funds mgmt company. the fundie suggested all the value was in the assets outside the major mastheads. But of course its the mastheads that have all the sway when it come sto public opinion. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it split between current owners, with Gina taking to mastheads and the rest taking the non-news digital sites and regional media assets.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:58 pm
@AlexGreenwich: We have been counted! 2600 Aussies in Same-sex Marriages, plus 65000 prevented by government from getting married http://t.co/JjcBfphn
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:59 pm
middle man,
Rinehart’s up against the takeover barrier at 19% already. She wants it I reckon, mainly to put together a radio, TV CH10, and website newspapers, conglomerate.
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 12:59 pm
BH
We already know a few names involved ie Brough, McArdle, Horan, Roy, and a woman whose name escapes me
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:00 pm
When does Ashby/Slipper case resume?
by Gecko on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:00 pm
BH
And Abbott runs the risk of Thomson voting with them for a SSSO
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:01 pm
Just 3 SK. Best tip..highest star fridge you can afford. 1.5 KW is most common. The price you get for your exported power varies greatly depending on state and makes a big difference as to whether it is worth it.
by joe2 on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:02 pm
Well, if Palmer’s in it, that will mean some others might be in the frame.
Wasn’t Hockey seen up there having coffee with Palmer around that time?
by Lynchpin on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:02 pm
Boerwar @ 5167
Looking at the summary population numbers – the ACT sits on 2.45 seats and the NT on 1.52. So one is just under and one is just over.
It seems that WA will pick up an extra seat in the next parliament as they are now entitled to 16 seats (15 now).
Next year being an election year, the AEC will presumably not redistribute – they might but it would not be finished in time.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:02 pm
A pair hard to miss ….
by blackburnpseph on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Debate on the Unions bill now on in the HoR.
The Libs are going on and on about Thomson, hookers and all the rest.
It all somehow sounds so… “ancient history”… to me, like it all happened years ago.
Perhaps Jackson’s loss today will bring it back to the future?
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Gecko
23 July
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:03 pm
c@t. exactly. as we speak there will be lots of meetings and phone calls going on. i dont reckon fund mgr’s will want to get caught up with her ambitions. the mastheads are already a drag on profits. it might be a way for them to come to an agreeable outcome.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Vic
Doane?
by Lynchpin on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:03 pm
bbs
I reckon the Greens might pick up the third ACT seat. Not sure. Might depend on the prefs.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Thanks Vic.
by Gecko on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:04 pm
… but best to avoid.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:04 pm
The impartial assessments Mr. Rudd by those in the International community would, I imagine, be totally different to some on this blog.
by Ian on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Yes, I can just imagine the order : “Two Large Fat Whites, please!”
by Lynchpin on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Lynchpin
From my recollection, most of the Coaltiion were in qld during that time. Not sure if there was some event they were all attending. But yes, Hockey did hook up with Palmer
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Lynchpin
Cheeky!
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Pipefitter – I hope it got a writeup in the Census for you
Your very own religion, wow!
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:06 pm
MOAR?
So maybe we’re about to hear who’s bankrolling the Ashby case?
Oooh, Goodie! I can hardly wait.
Nothing on IA or Vex yet.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Someone on twitter has summed up Abbott well.
@Volvo_of_doom: Tony Abbott says the Govt should work constructively with the Coalition. The most mindlessly obstinate and uncooperative LNP leader ever…
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Joe2,
Thanks so much for that. I’ve been pretty good on the low energy usage appliances since the star rating came out many moons ago but will do a review to see if I could be doing better.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Ha, the rhyming at 2 & 4 and 6 & 8 was completely unintentional, but an nice piece of serendipity now I look back at it. Just needs to be put to an appropriately funereal march.
dumb, dumb, dumb-dumb, dumb, dumb-dumb, dumb-dumb, dumb-dumb…
by ratsak on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:09 pm
C@tomma
The good thing about newsltd and fairfax going on line is
Those baners out side shops will go
The piles of wasted dead trees piled up near tbe check out gone.
No one can make you click on to a web site
People will have theit favourites , the right wings will click on theirs
The left wing on the ones on theirs the middle will just wait for policies
Its the news stands and headlines a lot only read,
Cannot wait
I still think it willhappen sooner than they think
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:09 pm
victoria et al
Re HoJo and Palmer
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/hockey-palmer-in-secret-meeting/story-e6freoof-1226324387428
by poroti on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:10 pm
My sister’s theory is that Gina doesn’t care if Fairfax goes broke.
1st option is to turn it into her very own shit-sheet, but iof that fails and circulation tanks, 2nd option is to let it go under.
My counter to this theory is that if she bought a controlling interest and then deliberately let the whole thing go down the toilet, there might be some very heavy litigation from the other shareholders looking for compensation for the falling stock price.
Sister’s answer is that Gina doesn’t care. She’s got more money than we can really imagine, and will defend any litigation to the point where her co-shareholders go broke from legal bills,and for as long as necessary (one case she has going, being sued by the daughter of old Lang’s original partner, is already 11 years old and still going strong).
Is anyone that rich or that deadset nasty that they would let a valuable property (still has SOME value) go bust just to take it out of circulation? Maybe if she had 100% of the shares, but with 51% (assuming an eventual takeover), much less 20%?
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Thanks collectively Bludgers.
I have to say the collective knowledge here on PB is astounding. Best mentors/coaches ever. Take a bow!
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:11 pm