Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
BB,
I might take you up on the 1 July offer, especially if some good middle eastern nosh is on the cards.
Or, as an alternative to middle eastern, the Tapas at the Spanish Club is pretty good, has plenty of room to allow for heated conversation, and is a block away from Town Hall station to make access easy.
by ratsak on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:35 pm
DL
Judge ordered HSU east go into administration
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:35 pm
Burgey not at all just that a one-term PM who lost badly to Howard may not be the best judge of Abbott. Apparently Keating wasn’t liked either.
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Hahaha! I should have waited a minute or so
Thanks Bakunin
by Danny Lewis on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:36 pm
guytaur
Does KJackson realise how desperate she appears? I am betting she is going to use mental breakdown next
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:37 pm
@5243 – doesn’t seem to stop Albo or Roxon teeing off.
by Compact Crank on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:37 pm
spur212
Way back – yep -thanks for correcting those WA numbers.
I was intent on comparing positive numbers with not so positive. In any event my point being that plus 2 is the best Labor, on a fair day, can expect in WA. On a bad day = 0.
On an extra good day maybe 7.
At the gloomiest times last year the West Australian was gleefully predicting 0 for Labor as if this is good for some kind of democracy when, of course, they would be the first to be preaching the need for a “strong” opposition.
Bit like Queensland at the moment and the Murdoch press for eons – try all you can to destroy a progressive government, but then when it is on the floor taunt with the “we need a strong opposition” line once the damage has been done.
No shame at all.
by Tricot on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:38 pm
Well done Patricia, love it.
by outside left on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:38 pm
I can’t see Jackson has any grounds to appeal the decision. Just step aside and let the Administrator start cleaning up the mess.
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:38 pm
Burgey – I thought everyone knew how to get around the News Ltd paywalls by now.
Paste the the url of the article into a Google search, that will give you a link which takes you to the full article. The Herald Sun paywall works exactly the same as The Australian’s one. Very easy to get around. You can only do so a few times each day, but clear cookies or use a different browser and you can do so a few more times.
by Leroy on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:38 pm
victoria
The Jackson desperation makes me think more and more that Thomson may be a complete innocent in all of this. Otherwise why so desperate?
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Commenting on the known facts of the case, thats the difference.
They are just waiting for it all to be revealed in the fullness of time
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Milne: Talking positively about the role of the PM and how she can do more in a short grab on 24
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:40 pm
KJ will have to go to Full Federal Court before she can go the High Court
by shellbell on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:40 pm
guytaur
Her desperate actions speak for themselves. Her fraud is going to be exposed. Her insurance policy is a mental breakdown.
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:41 pm
I think our deepest thoughts – and prayers for those who believe in their power – should be with the good people of Whyalla as it is facing being smote on July 1 or thereabouts.
by Tricot on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:42 pm
BTW when people like Faine start strongly suggesting that there is to be MOAR, then you can bet that there will be MOAR
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:43 pm
David,
Keating wasn’t liked but he was respected. I sus[ect Abbott is neither.
by Burgey on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Even Barry Cassidy concurred that there will be MOAR
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:44 pm
guytaur
What the hell does that mean?
by triton on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Mick Collins
Agree with you. Faine is a lawyer by trade. He Plays a straight bat.
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:45 pm
guytaur because there are different timeframes involved, one when Thomson was involved and after his resignation when Jackson took over. Jackson actions is completely understandable of a person who wanted her own appointed Administrator appointed, one she had more influence over.
Her actions now have little relevance to the substance of any claims up to 2007.
I keep saying we all just have to be patient as wait for things to take their course. All will be revealed in the fullness of time.
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:45 pm
Who is paying Kathy Jackson’s legal bills and has she checked with them first that it is okay to kick it further up the food chain?
by Danny Lewis on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:45 pm
Vic, Interesting that Faine described the MOAR as a Tsunami
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:46 pm
triton
I would imagine this means carbon price and mining tax attacks and maybe votes as it does not have the word financial in there.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:47 pm
davidwh – I’m too cynical to think the Qld voters will pay Newman out on this.
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Mick Collins
I have seen a few of Mike Kelly’s tweets over time on the Ashby matter. He said it was Grech x 10. He also said that there are going to be quite a few coalition people who have shot themselves in the foot. I take Mike Kelly’s comments very seriously
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Perhaps Clive is paying Ashby’s legal costs. Is that a tsunami?
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Thanks Leroy, I had tried that but it wasn’t working. Must have been doing something wrong. I just had another crack at it and it worked.
by Burgey on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:48 pm
DL
It was reported here that Alan Jones was contributing to Kathy Jackson’s legal costs. Not sure if a joke
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:49 pm
Burgey
I had linked the article for you in previous page
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:49 pm
Only if he jumps in the deep end.
by autocrat on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Danny,
The more she digs in her heels the more I think she has something to hide.
If her position is now vacant and is under administration does she have the right to take it further?
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:50 pm
David WH – Faine isn’t one to put himself out there in the way that you’re implying
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:50 pm
BoF has some charming political allies……..not
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydney-news/reputation-of-shooters-party-mp-robert-brown-cops-a-beating/story-e6freuzi-1226403524050
by poroti on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Burke casts a no vote to knock back amendments on Victims of Terrorism Overseas bill (vote was 68-68). But I can’t tell which amendments from the live minutes because both sides moved them.
by triton on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:52 pm
BH 5275 it really depends on the substance of the claims against Slipper. If it can be shown that Slipper did nothing wrong and a group of LNP people conspired to fabricate a case against Slipper then it will indeed blow up badly in their faces. If there is substance to the allegations against Slipper and the LNP people assisted Ashby to put the case together then it’s a different situation. We simply don’t know at the moment. Is it a conspiracy or just grubby politics or perhaps neither?
We just have to be patient and see what happens.
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:53 pm
K Rudd is tweeting about the Motor Neurone disease debate in HOR.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:53 pm
So she’s managed to discover that her treatment has been unconstitutional? That it breaches international treaties to which Oz is a signatory?
With her NEW new Legal Team?
I wonder who will payroll this latest stunt. The Federal Liberal Party … if it has any cash left over after the courts finish with the Ashby fit-up?
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:55 pm
victoria,
Thanks
by Burgey on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Triton, it was the opposition amendments, the govt. amendments appear to have been passed on voices.
by autocrat on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:57 pm
Vic, we promised you MOAR, you meanz in the Kabuki Tsunami like this:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vr8A9TyxC7g/T9wFNKe7qgI/AAAAAAAAAKM/JCQ9vFndpW0/s640/AnyC00336.JPG
by The Finnigans on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:57 pm
@Triton
I have a feeling the ‘no’ vote was used to slap down the Opposition amendments, which usually consist of
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:58 pm
News 24 just showed an X Men wedding. A same sex wedding. One year anniversary for NY marriage equality.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:59 pm
The finns
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Abbott bowling a dixer
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Thanks, autocrat & VK.
by triton on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:02 pm
@702sydney: About 6,500 NSW fire fighters have walked off the job, in protest against changes to workers comp.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Oppn amendments:
by autocrat on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:03 pm
#fakeAbbott#
Python squeeze alert!!!!
Good news! A letter from an industry stooge blaming a price rise disproportionately on the carbon price. How easy is this? Just another very little lie, and away we go again…
*nod, nod, nod, nod*
Vision: Suck up to the very rich; whack the ordinary Joe; root the environment.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:05 pm