Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Ms Burke has gone backwards since a promising early start.
Some red confetti would do wonders.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:24 pm
shellbell,
I have read catmomma’s post twice and can’t see how you could draw that inference. I think your disdain for Williamson and Thomson has clouded your judgement on issues regarding Jackson and Lawler. Either that, or there’s another reason that you’d like to share with us?
by Jake on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:24 pm
@LatikaQT: Greens back with the supp. Asking Penny Wong if the masterchef panna cotta not setting was due to the carbon tax. #SenateQT
@LatikaQT: Penny Wong now assures us panna cottas safe post carbon tax. #SenateQT
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:24 pm
Senator Wong has just been asked by the Greens about an episode of MasterChef and a panna cotta that didn’t set.
by triton on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:25 pm
davidwh
I am mentioning KJackson because she is the only one trying to stop the administration of This union. Are you understanding the discussion that is taking place?
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:25 pm
@5340 – Boerwar – the Unions are demanding “consultation” – has the Union movement recruited from McKinsey? Got some MBAs to role out a new business plan and marketing strategy?
by Compact Crank on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:25 pm
#fakeAbbott# says,
I urge Boffa to sack the slackarses.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Jake
It would appear that davidwh also fails to understand the discussion taking place.
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:26 pm
They would know.
by Sutton Sara on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:26 pm
Still struggling to find the upside for Labor in giving Jenny so many dixers every QT.
by ratsak on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:27 pm
Jake
It is pretty straightforward
by shellbell on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:27 pm
Greens appear to be going with ridicule of Abbott and the Carbon Tax claims. Senator Wong appears she is happy to oblige. Should make for fun tv. Channel ten will cover as it mentions their show.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:27 pm
shellbell@5333,
Not at all. Merely that the amount of time it took the FWA to deliver their report, the ‘Institutional Go Slow’ if you will, appears eerily similar to the tactic Jackson has employed to seek to delay by hook or by crook the court process to appoint an administrator.
As far as Williamson goes, I just included his name because he as well as Thomson had findings against him, as has Pauline Fagan and one other whose name escapes me. However, Thomson was the target, the others collateral damage.
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:28 pm
@5352 – should have asked Wong how much extra the panacotta would cost because of the CO2 Tax and how much cooler would the earth be because of the more expensive pannacotta?
by Compact Crank on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Good grief. harvey Norman are advertising the education bonus on tv. Encouraging parents to purchase their computers. Nothing like self interest
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:29 pm
I have complete understanding of the discussion victoria. I certainly understand what “Jackson sure knows how to stuff a union” means.
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:29 pm
That’s politics. You know very well how it works. Both sides do it.
The case isn’t over yet besides I don’t recall one cabinet minister making this claim.
Of course this sentence includes both sides of politics, so you don’t believe the coalition either?
by Gary on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:30 pm
davidwh
Why do you think that KJackson has been desperate to stop administration of this union?
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:30 pm
CC
#fakeAbbott# says,
Compact Crank you are right. Those princesses should suck shit. Just because Fairfax management have destroyed a great business, destroyed nearly all shareholder value, and completely slackarsed on how to create a profitable business model around new technology does not mean that those ignorant arsehole workers should try and butt in. They should accept the sack, shut up and piss off.
You do a great line in sucking up to the very rich Board of Fairfax and an excellent line in whacking the workers. If you could work in something about rooting the environment that would make a perfect score for you.
Vision: Suck up to the very rich; whack the ordinary Joe; root the environment.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Oakeshott was paired with Crook for that tied vote earlier. I thought the coalition said they never pair independents.
by triton on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Katter on Marine Parks
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:31 pm
What a pathetic artifice the Opposition have devised in order to dun the perception of the Price on Carbon. Everything uses electricity, so everything thus is negatively affected by the Carbon Tax, which is levied on electricity suppliers. Pathetic.
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:32 pm
c@atmomma
There was no go slow. As the report makes clear, anyone who FWA wanted to question lawyered up and documents had to be sought under complusive process with the assistance of the Australian Government solicitor.
by shellbell on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Now that IS a good idea. Hope it works out.
by Ian on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:33 pm
So what are the crocodiles in the attic wanting to know about marine parks?
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Combet Rant!!!!
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Bad timing?
One of the members making a statement this afternoon spent it putting shit on Mr Ferguson – who was not in the House because he was attending his Mum’s funeral.
For the sake of decency, I will assume it was an accident.
But with Mr Abbott as LOTO, despicable is the new normal.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:36 pm
@LatikaQT: It’s a recalibration isn’t it?! “@spark_ptz: @LatikaQT what a reasonable and constructive set of questions. not sure what to think
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:36 pm
victoria 5366 I already answered that issue. It’s not that she wants to stop an appointment only that she wanted to have the power to appoint her preferred Administrator. In that way she is in a better position to influence events. Most likely self preservation but that’s only an opinion and she may actually have very good intentions for acting the way she is (not likely but who knows).
Her actions as crazy as they seem to be do not either make her responsible for the past problems of HSU or make any of the other parties involved less responsible for their parts.
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:39 pm
shellbell,
Well I didn’t know that! Why didn’t the government put that out into the public sphere when Abbott kept rabbiting on about the ‘Institutional Go Slow’, over and over again?
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:40 pm
BB and other energy savers
http://smh.domain.com.au/blogs/talking-property/finally–leds-hit-home-20120619-20lh9.html
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:43 pm
@TheKouk: Maybe the Italian delegation in Parliament today will return home with a new policy: a price on carbonara… #qt
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:44 pm
C@tmomma the problem with us ordinary people is that a lot of the time we have trouble separating the process, the reality and the politics and mix them all together and make assumptions.
The government can’t be seen to be interfering in proper process.
The Opposition (and governments for that matter) will play politics with situations.
Process and justice moves at it’s own pace and there is not a lot that can be done to change that. Justice is patient where us ordinary people want instant answers.
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Boewwar
Can you say
Is it listed
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:45 pm
c@tmomma
They would not have known themselves until the report emerged
by shellbell on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:45 pm
ratsak,
I do hope you can come to our Carbon Price celebration on July 1st. Your suggestion of the Spanish Club is worth consideration.
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Have any of you noticed different people in libs aski g questions
Are they sick of being over looked:-)
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:46 pm
It’s been a great week for the opposition. Carbon tax, carbon tax, carbon tax, carbon tax, fishermen, carbon tax, carbon tax, carbon tax, carbon tax, Captain Emad, carbon tax, carbon tax, carbon tax, carbon tax, carbon tax, carbon tax, carbon tax, carbon tax.
As you can see, they’re really across their portfolios. Complaining about something they can’t do anything to stop, seeing as it’s already passed both houses and is about to become fact. And stuck with trying to get as much debate into their questions as possible because they’re too scared to move SSOs these days.
Oh, and here’s a new question. It’s about the carbon tax. And Abbott has a go at debate in a POO.
by Aguirre on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Ms Burke is being pissweak on those Opposite using POOs to raise debating points. They have done it serially and have got away with warning after warning.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Individuals at the table?
by triton on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:49 pm
NOA CONSTRICTOR!!
Pb driving the national debate!
by ratsak on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:50 pm
LOTO and Acting PM (Not, I assume the clerks!)
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:51 pm
Emmo!!!!! Noa Constrictor
by Burgey on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:51 pm
Mr Emerson giving Mr Abbott the rounds of the kitchen sink. Good performance.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:52 pm
Swan and Abbott really don’t like each other. Swan is a man of great judgment.
Go Emmo!!
by Lynchpin on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:53 pm
Mr Pyne is not quite as pink as usual. Less sun, I suppose, it being the Winter Solstice.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:53 pm
Why Onama must go
__________
A Progressive US academic and former consultant to Obama says that the Preidents
trillion dollars for the bankl\s and food stanps for the poor is anegation of the progressive history of the Democratic party which flowed from men like Roosevelt ,Kennedy and others
He believes…as does Ralph Nader that Obama’s defeat will have a good effect on the Democrats and force them to reconsider where they are going
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/06/20/why-obama-must-be-defeated/
by deblonay on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:53 pm
Ms Bishop the Elder up on a POO. Is looking more and more a caricature of herself.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:54 pm
@5367
Please explain how the Board is responsible for the demise of the Mastheads when the Board has a completely handsoff policy.
The Editors and Journos demanded and were allowed complete freedom – they did it to themselves.
I am unhappy for the production staff but for the Journos and Editors who demand independence – they also need to accept the responsibility – apparently they know best – not the Board.
by Compact Crank on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:55 pm
d
The US poor could have quite an impact if 100% of them bothered to vote. They could turn US politics arse over tit.
But they don’t and they won’t.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:56 pm