Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Here’s Abbott’s bellyflop:
http://img.ly/jO1m
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:56 pm
Ms Burke just gave the LOTO the LOTO latitude.
No yellows yet, even.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Bronny Bishop wearing a very fetching faux fur toilet seat around her neck…
by zoomster on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Aquire
Spot on tony will be talking carbon tax, till his last breathe
If they had any sence of thi gs they would find a new futuristic topic,
The gov. May have in mind,
May be thats just to hard
Becauce the public have or nearly have mo ed on
But you may notice the 6.30 type shows are brining it in to there, 30 min. Still
Re power
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:57 pm
revelance?
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:57 pm
BREAKING NEWS, some may say shocking news
I agree with something Adam Bandt has said
In the Greens ten proposals for changes to the FWA and there is one point that I totally agree with. I see no reason for such a long winded process that only seems to acheive unnecessary workplace angst.
4. Parties need better access to dispute settlement.
(In particular, we need to close the loophole that prolongs state public sector disputes by denying eg teacher and nurses access to full arbitration. Enterprise agreements should also require effective and binding dispute resolution mechanisms.)
by mexicanbeemer on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:57 pm
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydney-news/fire-fighters-discuss-strike-action/story-e6freuzi-1226403685735
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:58 pm
Ms Burke is lacking traction today. Poor job, IMHO.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:58 pm
Is it synthetic fur or has a little animal lost its life to keep B Bishop’s neck warm through the winter?
by gigi on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:58 pm
a red at last…
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 2:59 pm
Cobb with a red. IMHO, he was plain unlucky. A series of yellows and a red or two have gone begging and Mr Cobbs gets the hammer.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:00 pm
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
@CraigEmersonMP Emmo, be careful, you’ll get a call from John Cleese soon if you keep on doing your Boa Python sketch.
by The Finnigans on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Someone should put a ‘For Sale’ sign on this:
http://img.ly/jNSk
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Gigi
Some poor child’s toy died….
by zoomster on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Job security may be having an effect. Look at the headline.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/gillard-praised-talks-down-rio-outcome/story-e6freuyi-1226404292469
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:01 pm
C@tmomma
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Ms O’Dwyer gets a yellow. Ms Burke should learn that it is the first yellow and the first red that she should nail and in the first 60 seconds.
Waiting for an hour to do it just encourages the perps.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:01 pm
This is great and I hope the result is is similar to the poll at next general election.
http://theland.farmonline.com.au/news/nationalrural/agribusiness-and-general/political/torbay-thumps-windsor-in-latest-poll/2597480.aspx?storypage=0
by John Of Melbourne on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Malcolm Farrs description of Bronnie
@farrm51: Aye, that be herRT @fiztig: The battleship affectionately known as ‘Bronnie’? (ahem) RT @farrm51 HMAS Mackellar draws closer for broadside.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:02 pm
by leone on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:03 pm
What are the blue flowers for?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Ms Bishop the Younger has an unfortunate school marmish mode.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Puff
I do not go but I think it might be Motor Neuron Disease as the HoR was debating something to do with that today.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Two POOs from Ms Bishop and she is allowed to lecture on the second POO.
C’mon Ms Burke.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:05 pm
go=know
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:05 pm
The gauntlet is thrown down.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:06 pm
‘I don’t need to cop any more abuse than I am already getting.’ says the Deputy Speaker.
Pathetic.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:06 pm
@EqualLoveBris: @AlexGreenwich EMERGENCY RALLY – 6:30pm @ parliament house in Brisbane to oppose Civil Unions reforms!! PLEASE RETWEET!!
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:06 pm
What a total smurfing idiot.
by ShowsOn on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:07 pm
About the blue flowers –
http://mnda.org.nz/
by leone on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:07 pm
If the Deputy Speaker has red-carded the LOTO that would have established her authority.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:07 pm
Well, well, well. Verrry interesting. Torbay caught out lying:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/richardson-supports-claims-torbay-held-talks-with-alp-on-premiership-20120620-20omz.html
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:08 pm
Boerwar re post 5398/5395… Re working class voters in the USA
_____
A goods point re the poor…but I have an Ohio-friend who has a lifelong family link with Democrat politics and he has explainded the complexities of US politics at the “Booth” level to me.and they are considerable
The conservative Gov of Ohio at the last elections put all sort of obstacles in the path of working class and itinerant workers who wanted to to get themselves on the rolls
In addition the fundamenalists Churches have a conservative”flavour” which effects many working class voters in the “sticks” who are engaged with issues like Evolution and Gay Marriage and fail to see they are voting against their own class interests
Finally many such are never touched by the campaign to enroll them which has a middle-class bias
In Ohio the Repugnats put around the rumour that if you voted and had any kind of prior convictions that you would be guilty of a serious crime…not true.. but it scared many with minor felonies on their records
by deblonay on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:08 pm
PTMD
Unfortunately there is an unwritten law that the PM and the LOTO have a bit more latitude than the plebs.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:08 pm
d
Who said it would be easy? The whole point of being rich is keeping it that way. That means keeping the poor that way.
The poor are going to have to get off their electoral arse to kick arse.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Good old Julie Bishop. After an hour of the Opposition completely ignoring the speaker and trashing the standing orders, she pops up and sweet as pie has a protest against the horrible way the use of the word “you” reflects on the Speaker. Ah, bless her.
by Aguirre on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:11 pm
Boerwar,
The same kind of unwritten law that would have seen Burke paired to go to Rio?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:11 pm
@702sydney: firefighters turned their hoses on state parliment protesting over workcover changes-everyone getting wet!
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Boerwar,
I agree that Anna Burke is not performing in her new job as Speaker presiding very well. I can now see why the Labor Party didn’t really want her to step up and found it convenient and useful for them numerically to co-opt Peter Slipper.
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:13 pm
No SSSO for the entire week. Well done Thommo.
by ruawake on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:13 pm
John of Melbourne is here with news from two days ago. Get around it, everyone.
by Aguirre on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:13 pm
Not sure if this over the top, macho stuff from Labor ministers in parliament plays well for them out there in the general community.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Re US expert critigue of Obama
_______fromShowsOn 5427
“What a total smurfing idiot”
<<<<<<<<
….Is that as near as you can get to a rational and reason comment ????
by deblonay on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Looked as if cut from a larish 1970s ute front-bench faux fur seat cover
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Four more sitting days until the winter recess
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:14 pm
@5433
Poor old Boerwar doesn’t understand that the right side of politics wants everyone to be rich unlike the left which wants everyone to be equally poor.
by Compact Crank on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Aguirre, we don’t have the nbn yet
by John Of Melbourne on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:17 pm
That information from John is well worth reading twice Aquirre besides it takes a long time for information to travel from New England to Melbourne
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:17 pm
John @5416 – and it’s likely to be the same in Jokeshot’s seat.
Milne’s green slime doesn’t seem to be seeping into the countryside on those numbers either.
Now let’s just wait for the ALP/Greens to produce evidence as to why the polling is corrupt, biased, skewed and has no relevance at all in fact the paper should pull the article in th name of truth and balance because it is a lie – Media Watch will be all over this like a rash.
by Compact Crank on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:17 pm
So you think “over the top, macho stuff” doesn’t play “well for them out there in the general community” is the reason for RAbbott’s falling PPM figures?
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:17 pm