Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Latest news on tried and true bank rip off
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/breaking-news/households-deliver-banks-4-billion-in-fees/story-e6freuyr-1226404280053
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:18 pm
What a load of complete bollocks. I mean, really? You are joking. Those on the right side of the house would sell their grandmothers for a sheckel.
by Lynchpin on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:19 pm
I can’t believe that Joe Hockey just said that governments “determine the direction of the economy”.
It is astonishing that Liberal politicians seem to think that Australia is the same as the Soviet Union.
by ShowsOn on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Guytaur, leds are incredible, this for 60bucks and solar 54 leds. I install them inside for night lights.
http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/SOLAR-FLOOD-LIGHT-PIR-ACTIVATED-SECURITY-SENSOR-LIGHT-54-LED-6-VOLT-4AH-BATTERY-/150840080071?pt=AU_Home_Outdoor_Lighting&hash=ite
by joe2 on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:20 pm
I’m assuming John McTiernan has advised the Government front bench to be far more aggressive, hence why Swan, Albo, Emerson, Macklin etc are being very strident in QT.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:22 pm
It’s worth framing! Hypothetical victories have been a staple of the LNP this term. Poor old ALP have to settle for real victories on the floor.
by Aguirre on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:23 pm
Has Uncle Joe been drinking? He’s all over the shop, doing his post-dinner banter again.
by Aguirre on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:24 pm
It is just me or is Abbott dyeing his hair these days?
The tonsure seems a bit more pronounced.
by smithe on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Does Joe Hockey know what sovereign risk is?
by ruawake on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Unfortunately you are right BW. Too much talk, very little action. Thought she might have learned from Slipper how easy it is to keep the rabble under control, but apparently not.
by Darn on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Shaun Carney on the problems facing Gillard & why the cash splashes aren’t working for Labor:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/gillard-looking-all-the-poorer-for-throwing-money-at-voters-20120619-20m0a.html
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:27 pm
Evan, you loved it when Kev used to yell from the despatch box – elbow on the box, facing towards back of the House and bellowing for up to 9-10 minutes. It was so bad that in 2010 the House agreed to shorten the answers to 4 minutes. Not to mention that almost every question was answered by him, even dorothy dixers, whereas there is a mix of Ministers responding now and giving them a chance to shine and become known.
Labor is no longer a one man bad in the House or anywhere else. I like it. They are all performing well now.
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:27 pm
As for Bronnie, where did she get that coat?
It looks like someone flushed her in a fox-fur lined dunny and the seat somehow remained firmly attached to her neck after she’d managed to extricate herself from the predicament.
by smithe on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:27 pm
Hockey looks like he is rehearsing as the leader of the opposition
by Meguire Bob on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:28 pm
smithe
It appears he has dyed his hair
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:29 pm
We’ve got to be more like the Congo.
by Aguirre on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:29 pm
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Tony has a secret…
http://www.grecian-formula.com/
by joe2 on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:30 pm
I reckon it looks like the loo cover my MIL used to have in her guest bathroom. She thought it was the height of trendy – of course, she asked everyone to remove it before they used the loo. Much hilarity from family members so she eventually put it in the cat’s bed.
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:31 pm
Note how very few backbench MPs who voted for Rudd get to ask Dorothy Dixers in QT,it’s wall to wall Gillard loyalists like Mike Symon & Kirsten Livermore.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:31 pm
Carney’s custard, Evan – Fairfax journos like Carney don’t worry too many nowdays.
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:32 pm
Here’s a nice piece of irony. Hockey makes a bunch of Emad jokes (“Where is he? He’s gone, like Captain Emad!”) Finishes his speech, doesn’t hang around to listen to the response, exits the chamber.
by Aguirre on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Hi Lynchpin, did you get my earlier reference to http://polliepomes.wordpress.com/2012/06/21/working-class-girl/
by PatriciaWA on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:34 pm
Senate vote today on Assange
__________________
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/australian-senate-backs-aid-to-julian-assange/story-fn7x8me2-1226404424251
by deblonay on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:34 pm
I was just wondering the same.
Or maybe the problem that badly arranged set of A4 “palm-cards” he’s having trouble getting in order.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:34 pm
For the hardcore. HSU judgment:
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/FCA/2012/644.html
by shellbell on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:34 pm
TLM
So few of them voted for Rudd that if they got equal time that would still be about one question every fortnight
by zoomster on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:34 pm
#fakeAbbott# says
Compact Crank, stay with it comrade. Whack the ordinary Joes with the old wealth up/piss down fable. BTW, don’t forget we need a root-the-environment story for today.
Vision. Suck up to the very rich; whack the oridnary Joe; root the environment.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:35 pm
Evan: It stands to reason that more “Gillard loyalists” get questions given they represent 2/3rds of the caucus.
Sheesh.
by Danny Lewis on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Gillard’s hair appears to change shade weekly.
by Compact Crank on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Hi PatriciaWA, yes indeed!! I posted soon after you posted, you must have missed it. Loved the pome! I need about a day to do just to it, although I can’t screech like Jimmy Barnes!!
by Lynchpin on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:37 pm
@TLM/5459
The money is there for a reason, not a cash splash thing.
Trying to align it saying not working is just pure fuddism at work.
by zoidlord on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Huge demo outside Parliament House in Sydney by the Firies re cuts to their Worker’s compentsation provisions.
They sprayed Parliament House with their fire hoses in protest but unfortunately while the demo was taking place a house burned down in Monterey near Sans Souci.
Took Rural Firies who were supportive of the demo and offered to fill in if necessary 45mins to get to the house from which two women fled.
Will be interesting to hear which way this is played out.
by MTBW on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Emmo in quiet sarcastic mode. He’s enjoying himself today.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:39 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/house-burns-as-nsw-firefighters–strike-over-workcover-20120621-20pjd.html
by MTBW on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Two of Justice Flick’s orders:
by shellbell on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Meguire Bob@5462,
This might be of interest to you:
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Ralph Nader has form when it comes to getting right-wing warmongers elected in the US. He ran a vote splitting operation by running as a Green candidate in the 2000 election facilitating the election of the warmongers dummy, President George Bush.
The war dead and their families have to thank Nader for for their misfortune, now he is at it again.
by Bill B. on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:45 pm
shellbell,
Would you happen to know if Kathy Jackson retains her job as national secretary ?
Thanks in advance.
by Doyley on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Others are noticing. From a list things the soon to be defunct SMH hates…
______________________________
Chris Uhlmann on 7.30
IT’S not easy inheriting a chair long held by the pre-eminent political interviewer in the country, but nonetheless Chris Uhlmann continues to fall well short of the standard set by Kerry O’Brien on The 7.30 Report and now 7.30. Uhlmann has had time to settle in but he still comes across as intractable and obsessed with trying to claim a victory over his guest. His impatience with their answers – ”Sure, sure”, he will mutter – is odd given that he often follows up with a repeat of the previous question. He doesn’t know when to try a fresh tack or to allow the subject to dig their own hole by coaxing them into a conversation. We criticise politicians for not saying anything when interviewed, but some interviewers are making that too easy for them.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/-and-a-few-things-we-dont-love-20120620-20o4g.html#ixzz1yP6JgSIz
by Roy Orbison on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Joe is easy meat.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:47 pm
shellbell – can O’Farrell over-ride FlickJ and appoint the Liberal administrator that he wants? or is that a separate inquiry?
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:48 pm
yeah Thanks for that c@tmomma
Wont surprise to see hockey sitting where abbott was, in August
by Meguire Bob on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:48 pm
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
Mandarin is now the second most common language spoken at home – http://www.smh.com.au/national/snapshot-of-a-nation-what-the-census-reveals-about-us-20120621-20po5.html You meanz like this? – 相识满天下，知心能几人
by The Finnigans on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Doyley the court order vacates all officer appointments which includes Jackson.
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:50 pm
If the comments on the BBC are anything to go be, the Labor Party had better start thinking long and hard about the political consequences of having Assange in the USA, on death row during an election.
by fredn on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:50 pm
@5491 – no, won’t suprise – it will fucking shock the pants off most anyone who knows anything about politics.
by Compact Crank on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:50 pm
No BH – he cant – Court is the only one with power to appoint an administrator.
The reason for appointing the Cth’s choice is as follows:
by shellbell on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:52 pm
[Mr Kohler said the deal would not lead to a change in editorial direction, particularly at its smaller Climate Spectator site. ''The News Limited attitude towards climate change will not influence what we write,'' he said.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/an-offer-kohler-couldnt-refuse-20120620-20oma.html#ixzz1yOzDCWHh
I am very sad to see Climate Spectator fall into Murdoch’s mitts – it really is a voice of reason on climate science and policy. I hope Mr Kohler is right, but can’t help thinking this is all part of the mega-wealth drive to buy up alternative media. see the monckton rant on strategy here http://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/mining/monckton/get-this-ad-in-the-paper
when will labor move to break up media concentration – make it so no individual or company can own more than 20% of the total value of the media market?
when will crikey get bought up? fortunately there will always be new on-line media.
by sustainable future on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:53 pm
compact crank
Abbott is finish, he has nothing new in his attack he will be exposed after july 1
by Meguire Bob on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:53 pm