Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Doyley – judgment at 137:
by shellbell on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:54 pm
Allegations made against Jackson in course of hearing – judgment 139:
by shellbell on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:56 pm
davidwh @5493,
Thanks for your response.
The reason I asked was it struck me that the ruling refers to the specific combined NSW/Victorian branches.
Jackson was secretary of that combined branch but is also national secretary of the HSU which includes branches in most other states.
i was just wondering if the two positions are mutually exclusive. Losing one not necessarily means losing the national position.
I have no idea so was just speculating.
Cheers.
by Doyley on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:56 pm
c@tmomma @ 5485
That was a tweet from someone who posts on Pollbludger, to Paul B.
Could well be true but not sure why we should place more weight on that tweet than any other that flies around?
by Leroy on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:58 pm
shellbell @5499,
Thanks once again for taking the time to answer all these questions.
Cheers.
by Doyley on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:58 pm
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
You gotta love this country full of BISONs – 24.6% were born overseas, up from 22.2% 2006. 43.1% have at least one parent who migrated here
by The Finnigans on Jun 21, 2012 at 3:58 pm
Agreed. I understand from my source Hockey and Turnbull don’t have the numbers….yet.
by Lynchpin on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:01 pm
shellbell
does that mean KJ still has the paid job of national secretary?
by Lyne Lady on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:01 pm
I’m no musician, Lynchpin, but don’t you think that the ‘feminine’ needs a different touch anyway – you and Julia combined? That’s altogether a different tone from Jimmy B, much softer. Which is why I wondered whether it could work anyway, but you’re the best judge of that.
I just had a comment printed on the PM’s dress sense after Christine Lagarde’s compliment. I wouldn’t have bothered except that the bitchery of other comments was unbelievable. How does one counter that sort of thing?http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/julia-gillards-fashion-style-isnt-cactus-imf-head-christine-lagarde-says/story-e6frg12c-1226403700987
by PatriciaWA on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:02 pm
Let them run the figures by Hogwarts and they’ll have them.
by Aguirre on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:04 pm
fredn
In the highly unlikely event that this was to occur, why would it be Australia’s fault?
The Australian government could not prevent the UK court agreeing to extradite Assange to Sweden. Similarly, in the very unlikely event he ends up in Sweden and they extradite him to the US, there’s very little Australia can do about that, either.
by zoomster on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:04 pm
Ignore it, Patricia.
Thanks for the song tone hint – I agree. I am thinking low key and “ballady”.
by Lynchpin on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:05 pm
LL
I think so
by shellbell on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:05 pm
oh dear, the Rudd cultists wont be happy with this:
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillard-to-cochair-un-group-tackling-poverty-20120621-20pdw.html#ixzz1yPB84NG5
by The Finnigans on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:05 pm
Funny you should say that. There has been a lot of comment here for the last couple of days asking why Janelle Saffin gets to ask so many questions. She supported Rudd, she was front and centre in his procession to the leadership vote.
by leone on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:05 pm
by Lynchpin on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:05 pm
interesting in qt to see jb play up to the ruddstoration with her question re mcclelland.. she really is a ridiculous person
by Lyne Lady on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:06 pm
You are absolutely correct re janelle Saffin, leone.
by Lynchpin on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:07 pm
leone
someone did suggest yesterday that she has a marginal seat – they are trying to shore it up you are right she has been a regular in qt so she must be planning to stand again…
by Lyne Lady on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:08 pm
Finns
the PM is widely respected overseas – and would be here if not for a hostile media – i believe she has a stellar career ahead of her and the prime ministership is just a stepping stone…
by Lyne Lady on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Boerwar
Re your earlier comment about a Mr Ferguson attending his mother’s funeral and being absent from the House.
Who was that member?
by MTBW on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Assange may save Gillard a great deal of trouble by seeking asylum if it is approved.
Because if he ends up in Sweden then later sent to the US it will go badly for her given that he seems to a good level of support among Australians.
The media and protesters will play it up, and it seems also the Opposition realise the opportunity here and supported the motion in the Senate? Gillard’s early statements condemning Assange for no reason will come back to haunt her again. And deservedly so.
She already has enough angles from which Australians don’t like her, she wont want to have this one added. But it seems she will jump to whatever the US demands of her aka little Johny. Little Julie.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:12 pm
finns
was appalled to see a car sticker today here in port macquarie
next to the australian flag – if you don’t like it go home!!
by Lyne Lady on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:12 pm
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:12 pm
Ms Jackson said she would seek legal advice about appealing to the full court. – she meant some pillow talkie talkie http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/jackson-loses-job-as-hsu-east-put-into-administration-20120621-20puq.html#ixzz1yPCr6UDG
by The Finnigans on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:13 pm
I have no idea why I’m still watching parliament. Don’t know who this clown is, but he’s started off going on about the “carbon tax lie” and proceeded to echo Hockey’s laughable recent presser – the “sure we’re good but we could be so much better!” one. Now he’s reading from the newspapers.
I wait and wait for someone – anyone – to put some flesh on the bone of the Coalition “we’d do a better job” claim. In vain.
by Aguirre on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Lyne Lady
That was me and it is the same reason that Laura Smyth and Deb O’Neill are in the front seats directly in camera shot during QT.
by MTBW on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:14 pm
orly? You are referring to Rudd?
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:14 pm
Aguirre
I gave up watching about three minutes ago. It was getting ridiculous to say the least
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:14 pm
lyne, the flag is always the last refuge for the scoundrel
by The Finnigans on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:15 pm
This is paradoxical. By definition, it is impossible for everyone to be rich (though it is notionally conceivable that everyone could be equally well-provided for). Societies that are measurably closer to meeting that standard than we are (e.g much of Scandinavia) report high levels of satisfaction amongst the populace.
One could [perhaps describe Scandinavians as being much closer to being “equally poor” (i.e. “what the left want”) but that would be to debauch the language in the service of a misanthropic cultural claim.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:15 pm
Sorry Doyley missed that part. As far as I can tell Jackson retains her national secretary position so isn’t unemployed although reading that judgement some are questioning if she was carrying out those duties in any case.
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:15 pm
oh dear, right on cue. the painful pavlovian doggy starts vomitting
by The Finnigans on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:16 pm
@TP/5526
You referring to Rudd – Not anyone else on this forum.
by zoidlord on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:16 pm
About a 1000 posts ago some mentioned PB’ers with Solar Feed in.
Received my a/c today
used 2037 kWh : 23.5/day
generated 2793 : 30/day
for 90 days up to the shortest day of the year and it has been miserable weather for generators, looking forward to the el nino
I’ll be a net generator so will be interested in how much I get in 5 years time when the existing tariff ends, informed opinion is things will have changed so much no one can say
by kickin in the front seat on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:18 pm
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
Amazing, that Bimbette on #Slynews asked Peter Garrett if the PM should be attending Parliament rather than in Rio.
by The Finnigans on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:19 pm
[vexnews @vexnews
Despite Wikileaks spin, it would be easier to extradite Assange to US from UK than from Sweden http://bit.ly/Lh2ENv
Bob Carr in SMH
by lizzie on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:21 pm
There was no division, it was just agreed to on the voices.
by ShowsOn on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:23 pm
I’m glad I hung on now. I’m seeing the new Coalition approach. They’re going to pretend they’re positive, that they’re not just going to talk everything down. And they’re going to prove it by talking the government down; but reiterating that it’s the government, not the country, that they’re talking down.
The message has shifted from “the carbon tax is bad!” to “we’re going to get rid of the carbon tax!” See the difference?
They haven’t said how they’re going to get rid of the carbon tax; or how long, tedious and ultimately futile that intention is going to be. They don’t want to bum the good vibe.
by Aguirre on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:25 pm
What a total wank!
This is the epitomy of wishful thinking. Abbott is two miles ahead in the polls and has been there for a year, and you are seriously saying his leadership, rather than Gillard’s is in trouble!?
Smurfing ridiculous!
by ShowsOn on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:26 pm
The opposition should stop promising to do something that will be impossible.
by ShowsOn on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:27 pm
Leroy@5502,
Sorry,
, I read it as a Tweet FROM Paul Bongiorno to sprocket.
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:28 pm
Andrew Leigh ripping the conservatives to shreds – pleasure to watch – GET HIM ON THE FRONT BENCH !
by Rex Douglas on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:29 pm
Lizzie,
If what Bob Carr claims is true, why haven’t the U.S. done so? Could you imagine if it turned out that this was the largest paranoid non-conspiracy ever!
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:29 pm
Oh gawd I spoke too soon. They’re already back on ‘toxic’, ‘sovereign risk’, ‘lie’, doom and gloom. Mercifully cut short.
by Aguirre on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:30 pm
Can someone educate me as to why Assange thinks Sweden will send him to the US?
I know that two asylum seekers were extraordinarily renditioned from Sweden to the US (eventually) and the Swedish Press hounded the Govt when they found out, so much so they paid $500,000 in damages.
I know that the Swedish Military pretended to be airport workers and borded a US rendition flight and caused a diplomatic stink when the US were found to have lied to the Swedish Govt.
I know that Sweden has passed laws banning any kinds of extra-judicial transfers. I think Sweden does not have an extradition treaty with the US, Ecuador does.
So what is Assange really worried about?
by ruawake on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:30 pm
Shows On, not me saying it. If you had bothered to read my post properly, instead of going off half cocked, you would have noticed that.
BTW, a well placed source.
by Lynchpin on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:31 pm
lizzie
Perhaps the US did not want to cause embarassment to their close ally ? There would be a great deal of protest in the UK if they tried to take out of there. Easier to slip him out of Sweden.
by poroti on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Could it possibly be being charged and found guilty of sex crimes?
by ShowsOn on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:32 pm
BULLSMURF!
More like poorly placed smurf head feeding you smurfing nonsense.
by ShowsOn on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:33 pm