Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I suppose if you call being in the HoR poorly placed. Oh, wait, I forgot, you were MENTIONED IN HANSARD!!!! I bow to your obvious superior knowledge.
by Lynchpin on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Rua 5544 one possibility is that it is strategy being used by Assange’s legal team so that he avoids facing any charges in Sweden. Are there many countries in the world where Assange can avoid a proper extradition request from the US and would Assange want to live in those countries?
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:36 pm
And I have started another round of speculation over Assange. While it is just that, Labor has no problems. If the speculation crystallises with Assange in the USA, then Labor has a serious problem. In my view, all the bleating about the Greens will not stop further leakage of the Labor left vote to the greens. The problems will be self inflicted.
by fredn on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Gawd, Gillan asked Coorey if the talkfest is worthwhile. Now on to leadership stuff Coorey says last 48 hours it’s been talked about but nobody is going to do anything about it yet. Waiting to see what happens after 1 July.
Maiden says won’t be a change after 1 July cos the GST didn’t turn around straight away. Says she doesn’t know how long they’ll give JG but not sure Kevin Rudd wants it – chicken, he didn’t want it until he thought Kim Beasley was going to win and then he went in for the kill.
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Lynchpin – a well placed source in the Liberal party? Otherwise its not well placed.
by Leroy on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:39 pm
I got to watch all of QT today. I would have scored it:
- 3 points to Wayne Swan. The Deputy PM was asked a lot of questions and CUT through everytime. He kept teasing the
with a banana from across the table.
- 2 points to Jenny Macklin. She managed to make the opposition look even more miserable than what they were.
- 1 point to Craig Emerson. He made everybody laugh, including the opposition at themselves.
Dope of the session went to Julie Bishop. She should buy some knot free knickers next time so she will stop asking for any withdrawals in future over nothing!
by Centre on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:41 pm
fredn
and you avoid the question.
Exactly what can Australia (irrelevant who is in government) do to stop either the UK or Sweden extraditing Assange to the US (in the utterly unlikely event that this were to happen)?
by zoomster on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:41 pm
the Coorey/Maiden alliance being fed by the treasonous Rudd faction in the lead up to Newspoll weekend – absolutely despicible!
by Rex Douglas on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:42 pm
fredn – what would be your reaction if the UK, US or Sweden tried to intervene here if the same thing was happening (i.e. Assange issue). Would you like us to be ordered what to do?
It seems to me that it suits Assange’s purpose to say that he is not getting enough help from Australia when he has obviously had more than the usual. He needs to keep a high profile to get money to fund his cause so the Oz Govt. is an easy one to beat up on.
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:44 pm
THANK YOU.
Now smurf off.
by ShowsOn on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Oh no more Ruddstoration?
I truly can’t believe some Bludgers are so easily conned by propaganda.
Maiden is taking you all for SIMPLE fools.
by Centre on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:46 pm
You’d hit it. So would I.
by Roy Orbison on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:46 pm
I think the Assangists want the government to send in the FA18s and smuggle Assange out of the country in an embassy bag.
by ShowsOn on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:47 pm
BH @ 5533
Having observed the political journos for a while, and although she runs lots of leaked beat ups etc, when asked for her own evaluation on these panel shows Samantha Maiden talks more sense than most of them. Her estimation of the pro Rudd forces (and Rudd himself) mood is probably more accurate than Coorey’s most of the time. She also has had the odd policy scoop as well, e.g. on Childcare. That doesn’t mean I think they’ll get the numbers anyway, but I note she is more realistic.
by Leroy on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:48 pm
I suppose if crunch time comes, no more than Howard did to get David Hicks out. And no doubt the Gilard government will receive the same condemnation as the Howard Government.
Which is why it might have been smart for Labor to get the Swedes to inteview Assange in England, and perhaps get the Swedes to explain why the let him go and then wanted to bring him back.
by fredn on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:49 pm
Ecuador specifically exempts “political” extraditions. It’s only for criminal matters. It’s hard to imagine why, if Sweden is not planning to hand him over to the US, they wouldn’t simply make a ruling in Assange’s favour and decalre that howver they resolved his matter, they’d refuse any requests for rendition from any source.
They don’t even need to do that. At this stage all they are wanting AIUI is to question him. They could have done that in Britain, since it falls under European law. They could still do it in the embassy of Ecuador. Part of the problem here is that they want to extradite someone against whom there are no formal charges. That in itself looks suspect.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:50 pm
MTBW
I don’t know who the member was.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:51 pm
Driving home I THOUGHT I heard Emo trot out the Noa Constrictor. I feel proud that it has entered the Hansard lexicon.
by BK on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:51 pm
RexD – Coorey was very downbeat and Maiden was pretty quiet on it. I think Coorey may have received a heap of flack this morning from those Laborites who are sick to death of the journos pandering to the Ruddistas.
Coorey said he doesn’t know whether he will keep his job, nobody does, but he said wtte he’d been restricted in his columns because of lack of funds. So I guess the easy story to write is the regurgitated ‘Labor source’ about leadership. He seems to do it once a fortnight in line with newspoll.
I have sympathy for his family if he loses his job. I have no sympathy for the path the journos took in not fighting to keep the integrity of their paper intact.
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:52 pm
From ZH:
There is a great chart of the proportion of labour force gaoled and income distribution.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-scares-1-most
by Laocoon on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Er How? Or did I miss Australia being able to intervene in EU arrest warrants?
by ruawake on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:53 pm
A comment made by Eric Ripper, former WA ALP leader, pretty much encapsulates the media management style of all Coalition politicians:
Barnett’s whatever it takes on the day media
Apparently Gary Adshead has written a piece in The West about it, p21, if anyone can find that story on the webz.
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:55 pm
GET UP
Everyone is talking about Gina Rinehart’s campaign to take over Fairfax Media.
In the last week she has bought huge stakes in the company. Journalists are reporting that the mining magnate is seeking three seats on the board, but has refused the company’s requests to sign the Fairfax Charter of Editorial Independence. In short: editorial independence is under threat at Australia’s oldest newspapers.
We’re not rich enough to take over Fairfax, but together we can take over Fairfax’s webpages, with a complete buy-out of the ads on the SMH and The Age online homepages all Saturday.
It would make our message seen 4 million times, inviting customers, shareholders and staff of Fairfax to have their say on Rinehart’s takeover bid. Our best chance of stopping Rinehart is to show that it’s not in Fairfax’s financial interest to allow her on the board; that her influence will undermine the main asset of the papers: our trust.
You don’t need Rinehart’s deep pockets to make a difference. A $29.64 donation can make this ad seen 3,000 times on the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age homepages. Can you help?
http://www.getup.org.au/fairfax-takeover
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:59 pm
Let me tell you what is happening and how the electorate is thinking in the real world:
I was speaking to an ordinary Liberal leaning voter last night, these were the views expressed (swear on my life this is true);
1) the carbon tax is much larger than the GST and will place far greater pressure on the cost of living,
2) Julia Gillard is a liar for saying that she would not introduce a carbon tax under a government she leads,
3) electricity prices have sky rocketed because of the GST, and
4) the Liberal government had stopped the boats.
I tried to rebutt the first three points but it was like talking to a stone which was just as well as I didn’t want to go to point 4.
by Centre on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:59 pm
fredn
The Labor government has already done far more to help Assange than Howard did to help Hicks.
and how were they doing to ‘get’ the Swedes to do that?
I assume the Swedes have already explained that to the UK court.
It’s not at all unusual for the police to let someone go, satisfied that they have the answers to the questions they’ve asked, and then find (in the light of new evidence) that they need to ask more questions.
As for the whole “why didn’t the Swedes just send a video over” thing, it’s a bit like if I were to get a summons to attend to local magistrates court.
I can’t say, “No, I won’t go, I don’t feel like it. The magistrate can just send a video camera round to my place.”
If I did that, the next thing I know would be that there’d be a couple of nice policemen at my door to escort me there.
by zoomster on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:59 pm
C@t
Thanks to Frank.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/opinion/post/-/blog/14005187/the-barnett-paradox-the-right-to-be-always-right/
by ruawake on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:59 pm
¸Zoomster 5510 Re Assange and pulic opinion in OZ
___________
One has only to recall the way the Hicks/.Habid cases caused real problems for Howard among those Australians with a conscience who were outraged and mobilized
The holding of Assange in a US Prison or anything worse would be a huge problem for Gillard given her earlier innacurate statements re Assange and her widely recognised stance as a sattelite of Obama’s
Of course as things go…it may be the matter would come in the early days of a Romney Republican Presidentcy…no help there either ……
..Obama being no longer seen in many US polls as anything more than a even money chance.given the bad state of the US economy…which masy worsen as the European crisis develops further
It is said that no President has been relected when unemployment exceeded 8%..and it now aboutr 8.5%
by deblonay on Jun 21, 2012 at 4:59 pm
ruawake
Um ,threaten to ban imports of Spettekaka cakes ?
by poroti on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:00 pm
It really intrigues me the way Tony Abbott tailors his message to suit his particular audience. However, there are times when I just can’t fathom why he has said a particular thing to a certain outlet. Such as this:
Why has he started, finally, acknowledging what we have all known already, now, when his whole schtick against the ‘Carbon Tax’ has been predicated on painting it as the sole cause of electricity price rises, despite this well-known fact?
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:01 pm
On no I have to stop shopping at IKEA
No more flatpacks.
by davidwh on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:02 pm
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/opinion/post/-/blog/14005187/the-barnett-paradox-the-right-to-be-always-right/
by William Bowe on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:02 pm
ruawake,
Thanks to you too.
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:02 pm
And thanks to hizzoner, Mr Bowe.
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:03 pm
It’s not over yet.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-21/chaplains-on-covert-mission-to-spread-gods-word/4083706
by BK on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:04 pm
deblonay
OK, so how does Australia stop that happening?
The short answer is that they can’t.
And comparisons with the Hicks case are incredibly spurious. For starters, Hicks received NO consular assistance for something like 18 months.
Assange has had his hand held all the way.
by zoomster on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:04 pm
World record for the interruptus part of coitus interruptus:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/06/120620113141.htm
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:05 pm
Further to my previous post, you can thank the Greens for the electoral position they have put on the Labor Party.
The pewny benefits of their stupid carbon tax pales into insignificance compared to the political cost it has incurred.
As I have said from day 1. keep away from the Greens, they’re bad news.
Sheezus, how would SHY border protection policy go in the wider electorate? Labor primary vote about 16% I reckon!
by Centre on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:05 pm
Leroy – I’m no real fan of Maiden only because she is a Murdoch journo who knows what line she must take for Murdoch. Having said that I do agree with you. She is extremely sensible on panel shows and she does dob the Libs in when they have been spreading scuttlebutt.
She was the only one who said that the Shorten rumour came from the Libs. The others kept quiet.
Where Coorey was saying today that the Ruddistas will give the PM a short time after 1 July she made the point that it will take longer than to turn things around as it did with the GST for Howard. She is right but then again I’m 100% sure that Rudd won’t be returned as leader.
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:06 pm
electricity prices have sky rocketed because of the GST, and
Centre
Did you mean GST
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:08 pm
I completely agree that Gillard should retract her statements about Wikileaks.
by Diogenes on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:08 pm
Mr Obmana should retract his statements about Mr Manning. Mr Abbott should retract his statements about Mr Thomson. Ms Gillard should retract her statements about Mr Assange. Assorted Bludgers should retract their statements about Mr Jackson.
There. Fixed.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:13 pm
Thanks My say.
No, I meant electricity prices have sky rocketed because of the CARBON TAX.
by Centre on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:15 pm
BK
The thing that most concerns me over the “chaplaincy” issue is something I read about fairly young fundy types who, when students approached them with problems, suggested prayer would solve everything.
IMO prayer is only useful as a kind of mediation for those who already have a strong grounding in their own religious beliefs.
For a young kid who is (for example) being bullied, how the hell does that assist them?
by lizzie on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:15 pm
mediation = meditation
by lizzie on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:16 pm
lizzie
You are right on all counts.
by BK on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:16 pm
lizzie
They could always try praise the lord and pass the ammunition.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:16 pm
The PM could say she was acting on advice from the then A-G.
by ruawake on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:17 pm
Any views some of the Green supporters might like to share on my posts at 5573 and 5586?
No, I didn’t think so – lunatics
by Centre on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:17 pm
Another 200 souls in the water off Christmas Island/Indonesia.
Another policy failure.
Own it, ALP and Greens.
by Compact Crank on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:18 pm
Boerwar
I should have expected something warlike from you
But even that is better than poor advice.
by lizzie on Jun 21, 2012 at 5:21 pm