Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
hockey,turnbull, morrison or whoever wants to lead the liberal party should
come out and say you will work with the government @ parliament to settle this disaster
by Meguire Bob on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:08 pm
More tweets about Senator Mary Jo Fisher resigning.
Her legacy in politics is going to be the “TIme Warp” or the “Hokey Pokey” dance.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:09 pm
0.3% of arrivals are refugees from my memory….even smaller percent for asylum seekers.
by Mod Lib on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:09 pm
@5692 – you aren’t aware of the legitimate reasons for opposing the Malaysian option? It was not an acceptable compromise to be forced to accept Malaysia in order to get Nauru but no TPVs.
by Compact Crank on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:09 pm
Yes, just as culpable as the Coalition in my book. Playing politics with people’s lives.]
Exactly! And just like their refusal to back Rudd’s ETS legislation.[
by BK on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:10 pm
ajm @5690 bashing up the victim is the Liberal way.
It’s in their DNA
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:10 pm
Senator Mary Jo Fisher Resignation statement.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B332jVSQhDB2MDNzUjVOVVVCNjg/edit?pli=1
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:10 pm
Did Mary Jo ever get elected to the Senate? Is she going before she was not nominated? Why August as well?
by ruawake on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:11 pm
C@tmomma #5661, agree completely with you
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:11 pm
DWH
#fakeAbbott#
wRONg. Of course there is a perfect solution to the situation! Elect Moi!
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:11 pm
Further to my 5672 is the US Republicans fiddling with the truth:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-21/romney-campaign-said-to-ask-scott-to-downplay-job-gains.html
by citizen on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:12 pm
Wow just imagine it, out there in that rough water in the high seas. You’d be essing yourself.
And the water would be freezing (as global warming is yet to actually start).
Catmooma @ 5689, spot on!
Bluegreen @ 5683, seconded!
by Centre on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:12 pm
And now for the hunt to find someone to fit the patented’ Nasty Lib Woman’ mould that has been so successful in giving us the likes of the Puff Adder, Kelly O’Bigmouth, Michaelia Cash, etc.
by BK on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:12 pm
@ruawake
Yes, Mary Jo Fisher was elected at the 2010 election.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:13 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:13 pm
Next week is last sitting week for Senator Fisher
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:13 pm
#fakeAbbott# says, as I keep saying:
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:13 pm
@5697 – got any evidence to support that untrue allegation?
by Compact Crank on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:16 pm
@5699 – actually we’d prefer not to have to do that to anyone.
by Compact Crank on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:17 pm
BK,
I reckon, London to a brick, that her replacement will be male.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:17 pm
@CC/5717
You haven’t gave any evidence at all actually, so why are you asking others for evidence?
Look, each party has an opposing “idea” as to how they go about implementing a policy, how about you just let them… FFS.
by zoidlord on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:18 pm
I see why the Aug 10th date. Mary Jo gets paid for the long winter break for doing nothing. She should resign at the end of this session.
Typical Lib.
by ruawake on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:18 pm
Compact Crank
#fakeAbbott#
Excellent point. Those opposite are policy wally wankers.
We love asylum seekers. We love them all. They are one of our best vote winners in certain marginal seats. Bring them on!
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:18 pm
@MrDenmore: Investors accuse News Corp board of ‘lax oversight’ http://t.co/vEiarDKM via @guardian
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:19 pm
Yes, Turnbull or Hockey could seriously make a move on Abbott by being truly decent and humane, and say enough is enough on boats as a political tactic.
They should come out and support Labor’s offshore policy. It would work in the electorate I reckon, great opportunity to move into a monkey challenging position.
by Centre on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:20 pm
SK
On all the available evidence, anybody of any random gender, would have to be an improvement.
Ms Fisher has been an egregious waste of space.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:20 pm
Me too.
by Gecko on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:20 pm
Is Christian Porter going to be fast tracked into Federal Parliament?
by zoomster on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:20 pm
@5719 – I would hope that there are no identity politics involved in the decision and that the best person for the job gets selected.
by Compact Crank on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Boerwar,
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:22 pm
A better solution – voiced on Red Neck radio here in Perth – was for someone to machine gun the first load of boatees who landed on Scarborough Beach.
Haven’t we got some ex-tank warrior here who could use his M60 from his machine.
He would them be a true hero to the other low life who live on the extreme right of politics.
Never mind about blood on the hands of Labor and the Greens.
It is the Facist Right which loves guns.
by Tricot on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:22 pm
@5727 – I doubt they would select a West Australian to fill a South Australian Senate vacancy, somehow.
by Compact Crank on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:22 pm
zoomster
I doubt it. Porter going into Senate would have two problems. First not serving full term in State Parliament. Second the whole can a Party Leader be in the Senate problem
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:23 pm
Compact Crank
Was the preferred option for your lot in Iraq.
by poroti on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:23 pm
z
That would be his plan.
But since he threatens some of the talentless in the current party room, there are those who would rather he stayed where he is: on the rIGHt side of the Nullabor.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:23 pm
@5724 – what evidence do you have that says the voting public would support a change of Lib Leader and a change to the Coaltion policy – apart from you making shit up?
by Compact Crank on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:24 pm
Compact Crank
You have too many rants to answer all,but fact is does not matter what was put to a vote,the leaders of the coalition and greens said they would not vote to stop the boats by trying malaysia.
So clear abbott and brown now milne have all deaths at their doorstep,twist it all you like,but the fact remains abbott has said he will vote against his own offshore policy to win a polital point,so politics is more important to abbott than saving lives.Those who support abbott in his not supporting their policies are the same as abbott.
by Schnappi on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:26 pm
CC
But making shit up works so well. Abbott does it all the time with the carbon “tax” scare campaign.
We are thinking of having a Whyalla Day on July 1
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:26 pm
CC
#fakeAbbott#
Exactly my point. I am perfect. The 60% of the electorate who do not get it are idiots who are making shit up about my wonderful personality.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:26 pm
@5733 – if you knew anything about the conduct of war then it is always the preferred option – I can recommend an author called Sun Tzu.
by Compact Crank on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:27 pm
guytaur
And whatever her foibles I wish her well in her retirement and with her recovery.
Whatever we may think of her politics dealing with mental health issues is very debilitating.
I hope she can eventually find some peace.
by MTBW on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:27 pm
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:28 pm
Maybe downer will do a sidonis and take the pokey place
by Schnappi on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:28 pm
@latikambourke: The Australian reports Liberal Senator Mary Jo Fisher was reported to police on the weekend: http://t.co/mZxfqUgJ
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:28 pm
MTBW
Well put
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:29 pm
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/senator-mary-jo-fisher-caught-shoplifting-again/story-fn59niix-1226404681902?sv=b77ee391fe49e1b43a360d93cd9f97e3
by sprocket_ on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:29 pm
@5737 – you’d better schedule a Whyalla Steel day every 2 years just to check if it’s still there too.
No one has said – as off 1 July 2012 all businesses effected by the CO2 Tax will close – no one. But they will be impacted so it is just a matter of how long it takes to eat into their viability.
by Compact Crank on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:30 pm
Compact Crank
#fakeAbbott#
wRONg. No potential asylum seeker like Sun Tzu, probably without papers, probably arriving in a sinking junk while throwing his children overboard, is going to be an improvement on master strategist Mr Sheridan.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:30 pm
Schnappi
Lord Downer of Baghdad to the likes of you
by poroti on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:30 pm
All joking aside here is the REAL reason for Fisher’s resignation:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/senator-mary-jo-fisher-caught-shoplifting-again/story-fn59niix-1226404681902
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:30 pm