Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
B
Also correct, but trumped by Dio and V.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:51 pm
BW Indeed.
Picking on the Victim or the most vulnerable in our society is sport for the Liberals/COALition.
Bullying is in their DNA
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:52 pm
Boerwar
Hardly. I just remember Hayden having to answer questions about it. It was very disconcerting at the time.
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Gecko,
How about this one?
I’d rather share my house with an Afghani Asylum Seeker family than the Compact Cranks of this world any day.
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Mick Collins @ 5801
#fakeAbbott#
Serves them right.
Vision statement: suck up to very rich people; whack the ordinary Joe; root the environment.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Maybe Labor has drawn a line in the sand thanks to Abbott’s despicable behaviour. This story would have broken anyway and the Libs scrambled to get their announcement out before the real story broke.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:54 pm
Tom: kleptomania is, of itself, a mental illness.
It is a compulsion that has nothing to do with financial means.
Mary Jo may well have depression, but I suspect she is probably a kleptomaniac as well.
by Danny Lewis on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:54 pm
For some reason, shoplifting is a common manifestation of depression. About 30% of shoplifters are clinically depressed. I don’t know the reason.
by Diogenes on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:54 pm
I cannot remember which bludger that is in contact with Tom Watson MP and I am wondering if they remember the ex Senator Bill O’Chee report of political threats and inducements from News Ltd. Mr Watson would surly be interested.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/investigation-of-political-favours-against-news-ltd-20111122-1nszb.html
The knuckle-draggers Party has a true representative in the well named Compact Crank.
by Bill B. on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:54 pm
My bet is Maria Kourtesis will take Mary Jo Fisher’s senate spot
by spur212 on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Dio
They are depressed because they get caught?
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Diogenes: I would have thought that the shoplifting comes first, then the depression sets in, fuelled by guilt and-or feelings of self-loathing.
From then it becomes a behavioural catch-22.
by Danny Lewis on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:55 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:56 pm
This is not about senator Fisher per se but if the (alleged) shoplifting were to occur in California or Texas under the “three strikes” law:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_strikes_law
by citizen on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:57 pm
It was when Howard got control of the Libs and moved it to the right with the Kemps, Costellos, Krogers et al that the nature of the Lib party changed. There were some half decent people in there but they soon got swamped. My biggest disappointment was Ruddock. How he can now live with himself is beyond me. The libs are now a party that sees compassion as weakness. They have a collective attitude that they will do absolutely anything to gain and stay in power. Look at Abbott’s selling his arse attitude.
On the other extreme, given the example of the initial carbon talks when Rudd was PM, isn’t something better than nothing? In relation to boats the Greens can be pure in their motives, but do they ever stop and think OK but will this get passed? Will the Australian electorate accept this? Surely the saving of lives even if not from the best policy position is better than having them die. In the whole AS debate as of today , I don’t blame the Libs because I think they are scum without any compassion. But I blame the greens who think they are a party of compassion and understanding but who, at the moment, are contributing to the deaths of people for the sake of political purity.
by RNM1953 on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:57 pm
Danny 5806
I understand all of that. I’m just not that forgiving of a Lib who has opposed decent treatment of AS while children are drowning in the Indian ocean.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:58 pm
The other person I think would be up on the list is Luke Westley although I think he’d want a lower house seat either state or federal
by spur212 on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:59 pm
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:59 pm
victoria,
Talk about a weird news day.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 6:59 pm
The wacky Greens need to ask themselves if they would rather have 200 men, women and children die a horrible death by drowning at Sea or flown to Malaysia and in return save 4000 “genuine refugees” http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/07/26/welcome-to-the-malaysian-solution/
I think the Greens would rather they died than compromise on principle.
by Seasprite on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:00 pm
SK
Yes it has been
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:01 pm
Deblonay
I cant apologise for what i think of Assange. You dont want me to lie do you?
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:02 pm
Just heard on tv news
shoplifting sennator does is againn (allegedly).
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:02 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:02 pm
On a 1 to 10 scale of “Down and Dirty” on Sen. Fisher the government would rate a 2.
How would you rate the Coalition’s on Thomson?
by BK on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:03 pm
Puffy,
She has also resigned!
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:04 pm
BK
The majority of the electorate would have had no clue re MJFisher until today. On the other hand, Thomson is a household name. On a scale of one to 10. Difference 20
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:04 pm
An inside sauce says that Gillard has the winter recess to improve Labor’s poll numbers, else she will be told to resign when parliament resumes in 2.5 months.
by ShowsOn on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:04 pm
citizen
You are not suggesting that the Rummel in the wiki segment is our rummel? Sentenced to life for around $120 for a bad repair job not paid for?
r
Come back. We forgive you.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:05 pm
Mary Jo Fisher should’ve been made to resign when she was found guilty.
This is happening months too late.
by ShowsOn on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Just gone 7 pm. Let’s have some Rudd-Gillard banter, eh? Been at least 45 minutes.
by Burgey on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:07 pm
The story tonight about eldrrly peoples being thrown out of their homes they have had for up to 50 years, to make way for families
These may be housing gov. Homes. But they are their homes, they have gardens, chooks , dogs. Memories, and broken hearts.
Of course this is the new qld. It was on this day tonight go to the site have your say and remind them who the gov, is.
I am making a list of all these things i beleive our state labor gov is to
After all all libersls are tared with the one brush
Money before anything else, people there just a number
Our latvian neighbours when i was youngn told us that is what wss happening in communist russia.
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:07 pm
Money Power And Wall Street Part 4
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:07 pm
Puff
How is your Mother
by Schnappi on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:08 pm
citizen – that is terrific. That’s the line the ALP need to take a little more. Love Emmo’s line in QT yesterday – Glum and Glummer to Abbott and Hockey.
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:08 pm
I can believe that and have thought for several weeks now that that is the best plan. All of the cries of ‘replace her now’ have been far to premature and quite frankly, crap.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:09 pm
and she is an honest liberal. WTF are the rest of them into?
by Ian on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:10 pm
sorry about spelling
just got back bringing mum home from hospital
realised 1/3 bottle of Barossa Valley Rose in fridge.
ARRRRGH
make Mum cup of tea, shepherd her to lounge room
get rid of evidence (not down sink!!!!)
bottle at bottom of bin.
smurf the spelling
close call.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:10 pm
Gotta love inside sauces. Is that tomato or chilli?
by lloydois on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:11 pm
Amazon to setup shop in Australia:
Good news for buyers
http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/cloud/amazon-lands-in-australia-20120621-20q6y.html
by zoidlord on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:12 pm
Tomato, BBQ, or Worcestershire ?
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:13 pm
This was retweeted by BOF himself.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:13 pm
RNM1953
Yep, the Libs own culture wars the “Wets” vs the “Dries”. I’d be prepared to vote for the Liberals if the likes of Fred Chaney were still out and about.
by poroti on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Puff: never feel guilty.
Fess up about the booze; tell mum it was all the worrying about her that drove you to drink.
I’m sure she would understand, and hopefully let you finish the bottle
PS Is she better now?
by Danny Lewis on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:14 pm
Mum is nw taking tablets to reduce fluid inn the body. She is happy to be home. Hospital (public) was excellent.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:15 pm
When it was proposed that Hayden become GG Ian Sinclair raised the question of Dallas being in charge of Yarralumla
One wit noted that all Hayden had to do was sign the Bills and at least there was a good chance that he would use his oen name (How many PBers remember what that referred to).
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:16 pm
Jesus, of all the unions for Fatty O’Barrell to take on, he chooses the Fire Fighters? I mean, these blokes choose to run INTO burning buildings for a crust.
by Burgey on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:17 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:17 pm
a Some kleptomaniacs may not even be aware that they have committed the theft. … Kleptomania is distinguished from shoplifting or ordinary theft, as shoplifters …
I feal very sorry for her, to be really realy truthful would u say otherwise if she was labor
We had a work acquaintance years ago, quite well off,
It was diagnosed as a sick ness those days also,
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:18 pm
Boerwar #5800, yes, thanks for the reminder about Dallas Hayden. I was impressed at the time with the dignity of how she and Bill managed the matter. Clearly a nice person who had a genuine problem, and thus a good reminder to all of us to be a bit human about Senator Fisher even for those of us who dislike her.
I do agree also though with your #5787 on the point about Aboriginal kids jailed for taking a biscuit
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:18 pm