Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
http://au.news.yahoo.com/today-tonight/latest/article/-/14007659/public-housing-shake-up/
U can gotosite and have your say
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:45 pm
Can’t Poos latest brain fart.
Get rid of schools so why have an education dept – makes sense to a dentist.
by ruawake on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:45 pm
On the whole, I thought the way the parties handled the issue of Ms Hayden went remarkably well.
Of course with a relentlessly destructive LOTO, all that couth, politeness and sensitivity has gone down the toilet.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:45 pm
5870
Top post LSL
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:46 pm
So!, the little general Newman wants to put a financial strangle hold on the ALP, I think the rest of Australia should watch Newman over the 14 months as an indication of what a Abbott govt. may look like, BTW I still think Seeney reminds me of mutly out those Dick Dastardly cartoons with his continual sniggering.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/newman-bid-to-limit-alp-union-war-chest/story-e6frgczx-1226403574394
by Augustus on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:47 pm
rua,
Did I miss something in that #5900? Didn’t make sense to me.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:47 pm
Poll
Should older residents be forced out of public housing to make room for families?
Yes (384)
46%
No (445)
54% no so far
Re public housing is this what ee have come to god help aust.
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:48 pm
Yep – 10 year, generation in power predictions, tend to be nonsense.
BOF still getting the light touch treatment tonight on ABC TV News in Sydney.
Again – how many Fire Fighters & Public Servants helped vote him in. Probably quite a few.
Its coming home to roost, all around.
by dave on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:48 pm
No, they had the symptoms and diagnosis and often medication before they were caught.
A few movie stars, like Lindsay Lohan, have had it.
by Diogenes on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:48 pm
Augustus,
I always dreamt of being Penelope Pitstop.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:49 pm
Spot the difference
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:51 pm
SK
Hayelp, Hayelp. Newmans last words just before the Union steam train rolls over him, hmm there’s an image Newman as Penelope Pitstop
by Augustus on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:52 pm
Oops i just realised that it is not the same story.
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:52 pm
Shell CEO on 7.30 report lauding the benefits of countrys adopting carbon tax/ETS. Finally, a balanced comment from auntie on this issue.
by Rossmore on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:52 pm
Remember the night Godwin Gretch was sprung and the comment from poster, Shiney Bum -
by dave on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:53 pm
lets hope there are plenty of survivors from those boats….
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:53 pm
Rossmore
Mr Combet was saying today that Shell is factoring in a carbon price of $40 a ton in all their investment decisions.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:53 pm
Vic. they might be. there is an asylum seeker boat in trouble in Indo S&R area. they were on the way to christmas island.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:55 pm
LSL
It’s about 40% of prison inmates who have mental health problems.
And the judiciary consider the mental health aspects of all people who appear before them.
by Diogenes on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:55 pm
And this is not dissimilar to what GE has been doing globally.
by BK on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:55 pm
see this. very sad.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-21/asylum-seeker-boat-capsizes-en-route-to-australia/4084894
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:56 pm
Puff – glad your Mum is on the right medication now. My FIL used to sneak to his shed to have a quiet ciggie and my MIL never suspected. Have you got a shed
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:56 pm
Boerwar
I in no way object to the sentiment your post BUT as a sheepen I am sadened by the misuse of the phrase “Gung Ho” . A phrase popularised by the great sheepen shagger Rewi Alley.
http://www.nzonscreen.com/title/gung-ho—rewi-alley-of-china-1979
http://www.gunghoinc.com/
by poroti on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:56 pm
(Education Minister John-Paul Langbroek today visited Rainworth State School in Brisbane’s inner west to spruik the benefits of moving out from his departme)
Next the home school plan u pay stay home
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:57 pm
View conversation ·
View details ·
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:58 pm
Another 75 asylum seekers drowned courtesy of the political ambitions of Abbott and Morrison. Utter scumbags.
by Darn on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:59 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 7:59 pm
Ha Ha Ha
http://www.nocarbontax.com.au/anti-carbon-tax-rallies/
This is sooo funny.
CATA, our mothertrucking friends, are holding similtaneous rallies in Melbourne and Sydney on 1/07 to “Axe the Carbon Tax”
Obviously somneone told them that its a bit late, it’s already here to stay.
Should go along, laugh at the one nutter and his dog that attended, and remind them that Whyalla is still standing, and the Sky hasn’t falling
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:00 pm
very sad news coming through
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:00 pm
I’m not excited BH.
I’m not advocating a change of leader. I didn’t like the last change and I have no desire to see another.
However
There is no way that Labor will call an election when they are sitting on 46 – 54 or worse in the polls without having first done whatever they can to get traction. If that requires changing the leader then it will happen.
The 2013 election is winnable for Labor and if JG can get the numbers back to 49 – 51 or better going into an election with Abbott as LOTO then I’d expect Labor to win.
The next 4 months are critical.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:01 pm
Boerwar re Shell worldwide CEO’s support for CT/ETS ….. the look on Leigh Sales face was priceless when he confirmed this. She looked like she’d just scored some kind of major scoop.
by Rossmore on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:02 pm
BK – This arvo’s news bulletin on Sky had Don Argus, he of the Lib Party, complaining about the carbon price and saying it would be the end of Oz industry. I thought it interesting that the blokes running Shell and GE are not partisan so take a different take altogether, particularly Shell which is in fossil fuels.
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:03 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:04 pm
BH
There are some pretty dumb types who rise to the top of the business tree.
by BK on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:05 pm
Kidettew
What a vile display from C. Kenny.
Then again, what else would one expect?
by BK on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:06 pm
here we go again folks…
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:06 pm
Mr Argus is another one of those elderly white males who can’t accept that the paradigm by which they organised their lives, their values, and their vision, are going to fark the planet unless we stop them.
The are inter-generational criminals, pathetic ‘has beens’ trying insanely to ensure that grandchildren ‘won’t bes’.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:07 pm
Chris Kenny is providing an indication of how Abbott and Creep Morrison will respond to the news.
by BK on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:08 pm
Seems there have been a few useful idiots on PB regarding Assange.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2162383/Julian-Assange-The-useful-idiots-lionised-amoral-cowardly-Mr-Assange-ended-looking-utter-twits.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:08 pm
BK,
There is nothing worse than those who get sanctimonious and forget their role in beating up the immigration issue into a state of hysteria.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:09 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-21/hunter-tafe-teachers-rail-at-early-budget-cuts/4083396#.T-LxOORf1Cs.twitter
Will all these people who believed BoF’s promises and voted for them have forgotten by the time the next election rolls around?
by BH on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:10 pm
SK
#fakeAbbott# says,
That’s what I say. Ms Gillard should pick up a phone, call Nauru, stop the boats, and stop these drownings.
Heh heh.
by Boerwar on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:11 pm
My response to @ChrisKenny:
His response to me:
My rejoinder:
by Fran Barlow on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:11 pm
We are about to be swept away in a flood of crocodile tears.
by Diogenes on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:12 pm
SK, BK,
reminds of when that liltte worm Morrison played politics with flying a child survivor to Sydney for his parents funeral when they drowned of Christmas Island.
by Augustus on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:12 pm
Go Franny!
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:12 pm
I am amazed at the concern,compassion and angst caused by the deaths of “boat people” compared to the utter indifference to the slaughter of the same people ,by “us”, in their home countries.As Pauline once asked “Please explain?”
by poroti on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:13 pm
Tom hawkins
Dont knnow what lsl
Wrote
But i want be reading
he seems to alwys turn up newspoll week
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:13 pm
Diogs,
Certainly looks like there giving out onions for shock jocks today.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:14 pm
BK,
Kenny is copping a pizzling on twitter.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 8:14 pm