Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
ng one of there winters, minus 30 overnight and minus 28 during the day, I’ve changed my view point.
London ontario we have family been there -20 but wait they ran out side and jumped in the hot tub, they make them tough, my oh of course followed.
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:15 pm
No, not like they are now.
It’s now a business model which needs to be broken.
by confessions on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:16 pm
110 rescued so far
by zoomster on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:17 pm
Sustainable Future.
The point is that we would not be in the mess we are now, and Abbott would have been punted long ago.
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:17 pm
The wife is watching TV at the moment under a -6 rated swag bag (extra large sleeping bag)
by rummel on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:18 pm
To all you southerners, two words. Gold. Coast.
Still in tshirts and shorts here – no heating required!
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:19 pm
Gg ive lost patience with rummel
He thinks voting for abbott is good for his family.
You will never ever get through, so dont bother
Still think movi g to qld for people would be a great education
Now they want to through elderly people out of their gov home to some small pokey unit.
Our neighbours who where latvian told us they did that in comunist russia
1950
.
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:20 pm
I knew the glass was half full!
by rummel on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:20 pm
SK
Expecting to see snow on the hills outside in the morning!
by zoomster on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:21 pm
Throw elderly people ///
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:21 pm
Spur212, that Vex article is food for thought, perhaps we are soon to see RAbbott disapear down the burrow of irrelevence ?
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:22 pm
How quickly people have forgotten Captain Emad and his Contiki Asylum Seeker Tours to Christmas Island. A snip at only $11000 a seat on the unseaworthy boat of his choice.
Which is what makes me puke about wide-eyed utopian idealists like Fran. Adopt The Greens policy of laying out the Welcome Mat with no attempt at control of the numbers and Captain Emad would be maximising his numbers in double quick time. I just have to reflect about Canada, who had an open borders policy wrt refugees at one stage during the Sri Lankan Civil War. So a load of Tamils set sail to Canada on an old Cargo Ship they rented for the voyage.
I just find the duplicitous hypocrisy of The Greens position on Asylum Seekers risible coming from a party which was founded on environmental principles, yet they also want to let an uncontrolled number of genuine refugees come here to the continent with the most fragile environment on earth.
2 policies from the one party at complete contradiction with one another.
Not to mention the fact they are happy to keep letting them come by boat to Australia in an uncontrolled fashion, and if they die on the way, so be it.
Although I do remember Jeremy Sear, another member of The Greens Praetorian Guard, coming up with a novel solution when I challenged him on that fact. His exact words to me were: “We should hire sea-worthy boats for the Asylum Seekers in Indonesia so they can come to Australia safely.”
Which prompted me to think you may as well give up the pretence that you will meet the boat when it gets to Australia and just put up the shingle in Indonesia, let every refugee come who wants to come to Australia, and provide them with a free air ticket.
But guess who’ll be the first to complain when their precious environment and it’s finite resources is threatened by the urban sprawl which will be necessary to create to accomodate them?
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:24 pm
z,
Have to say some of the best times in my life were staying in Myrtleford and travelling to the ski fields. Come to think of it trips to Brown Brothers wasn’t too bad either!
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:24 pm
My goodness what sort of heating do you people have,
Our reverse cycle is 8 kw set on 18 degree and heating 28 sq house
Light jumper bamboo ful sleeve singlet
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:25 pm
SK,
one of the advantages of living in SEQ, no heating required in winter, no cooling required in summer
by Augustus on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:25 pm
Augustus,
Beautiful one day, perfect the next.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:26 pm
TAKE ME TO THE END OF THIS THREAD NOWWWW
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
by ShowsOn on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:27 pm
I keep wondering how many Greens have walked the walk of the talk that they talk and put their hand up to Homestay a refugee family?
by C@tmomma on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Beautiful one day, can-do the next
by rummel on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Ha HaHa
Beat you to it
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:30 pm
SK
With great respect i would fi d that very boring
Lived in qld for 2 years, no autumn , no spri g bulbs
Love my wooll overcoat lo g boots, beret, 30 denier black stockings, and long pencil skirts
Cold weater makes tbe body rest, in sumner its go go.
I love tbe seasons, snow, sleet wind the ocean crasing on the rocks out side my kithen wi dow
Bliss and variety
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:30 pm
SK
yes, we moved here for the ski ing, although (of course) I’m not able to do it now.
Our school (the one my sons attend, and where I teach most often) is involved in a ski program.
It feels really devilish to be a supervising teacher, and be paid to ski!
by zoomster on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:32 pm
They also love to bleat on about respect for other cultures and traditions, whilst at the same time asserting that the Malaysians are too brutal to deal with.
by Jake on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:33 pm
my say,
After growing up with 0 to -2 degree temps in winter, I can say I am not missing southern winters!
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:33 pm
Don’t drink yellow snow.
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:33 pm
Mess we are in
Was not done by labor,
And also looki g around the world minorty gov. Are very common , so we are not use to them
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:34 pm
rummel,
with can-do, perfect one, 1976 the next
by Augustus on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:34 pm
Here’s Chris Kenny’s best tweet so far:
No Chris, that’s not a political point at all…
by Aguirre on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:34 pm
my wife keeps on asking if we can spend a couple of years in Hobart near her family.. that’s just not on for this GC boy. freezing down there!
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:35 pm
z,
Not a bad gig. I’ve had two knee reconstructions and need a third. I have been banned from skiing and have been reduced to episodes of drunken snowball fights!
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:35 pm
Ps frankly i see no mess, just problems with solulotions
That o e person called abbott does not want to be a part of
For polutcal reasons
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:35 pm
MC
if you can drink it, it’s not snow.
by zoomster on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:36 pm
Thursday, June 21, 2012 at 10:35 pm | Permalink
my wife keeps on asking if we can spend a couple of years in Hobart near her family.. that’s just not on for this GC boy. freezing down there!
Rubbish u new i would relply and a little selfish perhaps
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:37 pm
SK
You have three knees????
by zoomster on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:37 pm
z,
All the better to kick Liberals with!
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:39 pm
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:39 pm
Z,
Only two! Same knee everytime. I just couldn’t be buggered going through rehab again. Takes about 6 to 12 months to get right.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Our neighbours aew from qld bought a lovley home on the river bank for 380 th
They have a steady flow of family from qld.
Now three families are movi g down their reklies
17 degrees up till this week , so much sun
Tne homes are built for the weather face north ect double glazi g ect.
We have g
Hobart is very cosmapolitan , great thearters museums , view, of mou tain rivers
Great schools health system
Paradise
by my say on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:41 pm
“jc @jca12345 4h
@CraigEmersonMP Craig, there are 200 people thought lost near Xmas island. This game is enough now. You can’t go blaming Abbot
Craig Emerson MP
@CraigEmersonMP
@jca12345 Not a game. Disgusting Coalition won’t support a bill allowing government of day to choose offshore processing location.
7:37pm Thu Jun 21 via Twitter for iPad”
Emmo 1 jca12345 0, chris kenny care factor -5
by Augustus on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:42 pm
I see my specialist next Thursday, and will then know what’s going to happen with my hip.
At the moment I’m a little stoked on Endone…..
by zoomster on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:43 pm
@SK/6136
I’ve been there, although my doctors haven’t recommended a full knee reconstruction.
So my right knee is still F*cked.
by zoidlord on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Chris Kenny should save the crocodile tears and stop using a tragedy to try to win votes for the Party he supports by discrediting the government.
Go and look at yourself in the mirror Kenny, what you see is SCUM!
by Centre on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:44 pm
RE BOATS!
It is a dangerous trip, made more dangerous by the crap boats, the overloading and the inexperienced crews the smugglers use. So breaking the business model of smugglers is required.
Those on the boats. How many times we will need to send people to a 3rd country before the model is broken?
The destination. Much is made by the Greens and others of Malaysia. Is there a third country where they can be processed in a safe and humane way? ie not dodgy old stinking hot Nauru.
I used to think we shoudl just accept them. But at some point one has to acknowledge that an open door policy is mana from heaven for smugglers, and just tempting future boatloads of people to make a dangerous journey.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:44 pm
z,
That’ll help! Good luck on Thursday.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:45 pm
zoidlord @ 6140
So we have something in common.
I thought you were a young fellow.
by bemused on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:46 pm
zoidlord,
I have built up the quads to help offset, which really helpsand has helped me avoid the knife again. I am okay to do 99% of things so long as I don’t try to get too clever and step someone!
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Centre
I would like Kenny to explain how the coalition policy would stop people smuggling. Sending them to Nauru or Xmas island would make no difference to asylum seekers. Going to Malaysia on the other hand…..
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:47 pm
I’m not sure any pollie should be out pointing fingers.
This is one of those moments when someone needs to say enough is enough.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:48 pm
zoid,
Sorry about the ‘help’ overload!
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:49 pm
RAbbott, MORRISon and co are being very disenguenuous when they say that Howard stopped the boats.
Refugee movements are determined by push factors
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:50 pm