Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
mm
Tbh i doubt there is any one policy that would stop such tragedies. It requires a multi faceted and bi partisan approach
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:50 pm
my say
yes i am a little selfish about the warm weather… but i try and be generous in other ways to make up for that.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:51 pm
i know Vic. and we won’t get bipartisan from a man with only one frontal lobe.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Catallaxy, the place of crazy, has gone into a self flagellating mode over a Paul Keating speech.
It sounds great – has anyone got a link please? (so far Google only get an Australian, a Hun and Catallaxy links and none of them are helpful in getting a video or transcript)
by David McRae on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Interesting comment…
THe image of people clinging to an upturned boat is just awful to think about
lets hope those in the water weren’t coming to see Captain Emad.
by Mr Squiggle on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Well, Kenny certainly didn’t appear to be winning any friends. Looks like the only interest he got was from people who watch Sky specifically because they hate it. Doesn’t have the most engaging manner either. Shot back an insult at nearly everyone who criticised him, and went on a lot about libel as well. Thin skinned.
Surely he can see the flaw in the position he’s taking? When the policy of your party of choice is to fill up a small island and then just turn boats back without the slightest care for what happens to them, it’s hard to get anyone to take your expressions of compassion seriously. It’s a bit like saying, “If I close my eyes the problem will go away.”
by Aguirre on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:54 pm
@bemused/6144
In my case, my knee has always been like this, I’ve had alot of medical issues when i was lil (in this case, I’m nearly 30).
Which is probably why I tend to go abit overboard when it comes to governments cost cutting – when it comes to things like Infrastructure etc.
@SK/6145
Yeah, same deal, I can’t do alot of stuff inc moving heavy objects, use stairs alot etc.
@Sk/6148
No problem
by zoidlord on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Aguirre
Kenny has no credibility whatsoever.
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Vic no one from shock jock land can be taken seriously.
The only people who do are the dumb drunk and rascist
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:57 pm
All of you complaining about the Greens take your blinkers off and look at their actual policies. The first step they talk about is increase funding to the UN agencies to help break the smugglers business model. The major parties will not do this as they see problems with this approach.
Just do not accuse the Greens of being heartless and preferring people to drown jut for politicl grounds. That is not true. That is still the preserve of Abbott and Co.
(BTW this is one Green policy area I am not sure about. I am only stating what I think their policy is.)
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Mick Collins
Especially Abbott’s mantra of turning back the boats. What a farce
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Mr Squig
It’s a horrible thought.
I’m all for accepting genuine refugees. Even increasing our intakes. But I also think we need to remove the attraction that makes some set out across the ocean.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Yeah, funny about that.
How many refugees are there in the world, again?
(OK, I’m going to bed. Definitely getting a little too spacey……)
by zoomster on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:00 pm
guytaur. if that’s their policy i think thats a good start. but i don’t think just that alone that will do it. as with most things in life its complicated and might need a few separate ways of attackng it to get it to work.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:01 pm
Zoomster
I am calling it a night too. Catch you all on the flipside
by victoria on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:01 pm
BTW id anyone watch “Drunk Dumb and Rascist” last nite ?
I thought it was telling, especially that Idiot who kept on painting that “Burker” mural and his pathetic justifications for doing so
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:01 pm
middle man,
The one thing that has never been explained to me is why they choose boats when it costs more than travelling by plane and would be much safer.
That is not to say that I want them coming by plane and treated differently, just that it is both cheaper and safer.
I could undertand them taking the boat option if it was cheaper.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:01 pm
Mm
When Australia is a third world dictatorship, then people may stop being attracted to Australia. This is where the Greens and Kevin Rudd are right. It is the push factors.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:02 pm
zoidlord @ 6156
Nearly 30 eh… I knew you were a young fellow.
I buggered up my right knee when I was 20 playing volley ball (stupid game). 2 operations so far and hoping to avoid any more.
Biggest problem is it limits how much walking I can comfortably do, which makes it hard to get enough exercise. I should go swimming more.
by bemused on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:02 pm
z,
You’re me? Sweet dreams!
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:02 pm
SK. you need documents (in proper order) to get on a flight.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:03 pm
victoria,
Nite!
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:03 pm
middle man,
Ah, I get it.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:04 pm
SK
I think that comes down to the way people embark on flights. A lot more controls with planes than boats. Maybe one day a people smuggler will use a plane to fly to a remote airstrip instead.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:05 pm
I know this will come as something of a shock, but The Greens are not a branch of the ALP. It is not part of our brief to protect the ALP from its own miscalculations. This is especially the case when the ALP itself sets out to pander to the right by keeping us at arm’s length, playing silly buggers with polluters, trying to outflank the Liberals on the right over asylum seekers as Rudd did.
They made a rod for their own backs and expected us to bail them out by doing things that no Green would have been able to stomach and which would have seen us look quite as dreadful as them, without even the excuse of being a party of government.
Had we done that, our supporter base would rightly have concluded that we were every bit as worthless in practice as the Democrats — that we stood for nothing and were utterly craven and therefore worthless. What would be the point of being a fringe party with no ideas or abiding principles run by people who were utterly inept?
We’d have set back the cause of equity and reason by a generation. Bob Brown would have deserved to have been driven from the Senate by a swarm of angry bees.
It wasn’t a hard decision. In politics, one must take responsibility for one’s acts, and Rudd had to take responsibility for Sussex St, as long as he was singing from their songsheet.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:06 pm
@bemused/6168
Last time I did rehab (after nearly breaking my knee) was with a specialist in a swimming pool doing specific exercises.
It’s the only treatment that has worked.
The bonus is that you can swim + loose a few kg.
by zoidlord on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:06 pm
guytaur. thats not the attraction i’m talking about. we should be proud that we are a destination of choice for those wanting a better life. i mean the result they get from a successful voyage. that is what makes them get on the boat. that cycle needs to be stopped. i don’t think its a one size fits all answer here.
i think we can stop people taking the risk AND accept more refugees.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:06 pm
sk @ 6166
Try getting on a plane without a passport and a visa for your destination.
That has been widely discussed, even in the MSM.
by bemused on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:06 pm
and not be cruel or inhumane.
it’s just that i have a job and kids and dont know much about international law to eb honest. otherwise i’d give it a red hot go at trying to work it out.
i thought the friendly centre left teams might have done it… but no…
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:09 pm
and obvously you would rather have Abbott as PM, going by some of the dumb rhetoric that the Greens stand on
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Fran,
I don’t agree with the pandering line. Bottom line is JG and Bob Brown worked collegially and professionally together and I respect both for doing so. Much of the pandering stuff is media generated rubbish.
I am hoping that Christine Milne is also able to continue working collegially. To date she has shown that she does work that way. But I think you would be hard pushed to find to many members of parliament with an exact match in stances on all issues.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:11 pm
bemused,
Thanks.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Mm
Its desperation being stuck in prison like refugee camps in countries like Indonesia.
Until years in those camps is no more, desperate people will pay and take the risk for a boat trip.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:12 pm
SK
I like this question, I can remember mulling it over during the tamil tiger/Sri Lanka flare up a few years ago.
$10,000 for a boat journey, or 3,000 on a red spot special with Qantas direct from Colombo to Syd.
Why choose the boat?
by Mr Squiggle on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Sorry to break it to you, but the Greens are a fringe party, and with people like Lee Rehannon and SHY you are peopled by ineptitude
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:13 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:14 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:15 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Mm
I know the problems. I can glibly say lets process them where they are. However you have seen the uproar over the Malaysian solution.
We are seeing one real solution that has shown a light at the end of the tunnel. The reforms in Burma. If Burma really does embrace Suu Kyii’s reforms then there will be no Asylum Seekers fleeing persecution from Burma.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:17 pm
19 Dec 2011….
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/boat-tragedy-linked-to-smuggling-mastermind/story-e6frg6so-1226225309847
by rummel on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:19 pm
guytaur. and obviously speeding up processing in those places is an important part also. as i said it will take a multi-facted approach to what is a complex problem.
i dont doubt the desperation of those that decide to make the journey.
MR SQUIG.
many tamils have spent years at war and dont trust authority as it now is since they lost the war. they’d prefer to sneak out than have someone with a gun holding their passport at an airport.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:20 pm
Mr Squiggle @ 6183
Without a passport and Australian visa, you won’t even get on the plane.
by bemused on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:21 pm
guytaur. peace in the home country of those fleeing is always the best outcome. no doubt about that.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:22 pm
Fran
How do you see what we have now as different to what was on offer when Labor was trying to get the Liberals to support the package.
by fredn on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:23 pm
Augustus 6114 re Climate
_________
I don’t know about SEQ but every time I have visited Brisbane in mid-summer I have found it so humid as to be almost suffocating
Real Singapore fug !
One couldn’t survive without aircon I think??????
In Melb….
We have a gas ducted heating to all rooms and a gas-fire in the main lounge for nights when we don’t want all the heating on
Gas isn’t too expensive
In my childhood most homes just had a large wood-stove ihn the Kitchen in which we live in winter …then a open fire in the Lounge for when we had visitors on the weekend
burning wood or a product called coke…a by-product of the gas-company made from burning black coal….and which was piled on wood coals and made a wonderful heat
In Melb one needs heating from April until October
by deblonay on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:24 pm
bemused,
I have gotten on a plane with a passport but no visa – both ways. So maybe they just need a decent enough fake passport? I don’t know the answer but I wish people were nicer to each other. We still carry on like bullying schoolkids.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:24 pm
Ok, fair enough, but do they deserve a better chance at winning an asylum seeker visa than someone who risked the passport at an airport?
by Mr Squiggle on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:29 pm
SK @ 6195
You are privileged as you are an Australian and are not likely to seek asylum in the countries you visit.
If you were a citizen of a country from which people flee or try to migrate without going through the normal formalities, you would not get a visa easily, and without one, no airline would take you.
by bemused on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:29 pm
MR Squig.
from my understanding the ones that fly in get the easier run.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:31 pm
The tragedy of Refugees
_____________
There are tens of milloions of people in camps and on the move around the world …victims of cruel regimes and wars et al..and we can sympathise but…
We would destroy our society if we took them in their millions…and they would come if we asked themtoo/…
In my view already we take too many legal ,immigrants and should cut their intake
I notice that there are half-a-million refugees now in Greece mostly from the M East..adding to the problems of Greece now bankrupt by the Banks and the German Empire
by deblonay on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:32 pm