Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
bemused,
I really just don’t want any more lives lost at sea.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:34 pm
so tomorrow we are going to get three political parties all standing around saying “no my way is the best way. and by the way it’s your fault they died”… meanwhile nothing gets done. wonderful.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:36 pm
Read this rubbish http://www.twitlonger.com/show/huv63d
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:37 pm
I guess they go down the same airbridge as every other passenger.
Its not as if they can hop it across the tarmac and escape customs & immigration
by Mr Squiggle on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:39 pm
A christian for the good of all.
David Shoebridge@ShoebridgeMLC
And Fred Nile is then going to remove any restrictions on what lawyers can charge injured workers fur compo claims – astounding 2/2
by Schnappi on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:39 pm
Two parties and One Government
by rummel on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:40 pm
Excellent points Fran. The Greens are not a branch of the ALP nor are the Greens there to clean up the mess when the ALP miscalculates. The Greens are a stand-alone party whose strategy is to cause damage to, or take votes from, the ALP using whatever cynical means available – whether by dishonestly conspiring with the Commonwealth Ombudsman or rejecting an ETS for purely political reasons.
The ALP are most certainly responsible for the miscalculation they made in forming minority government in circumstances where they would shoulder the burden for the Greens’ policy demands – all the while being attacked and blocked by the Greens – and it is for the ALP to make amends.
The ALP wants its base back from the Coalition and it will soon sever its ties with the Greens and attack them relentlessly to achieve that aim.
Your day in the sun will soon be at an end.
by Jake on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:40 pm
@rummel/6205
The Goverment is also a party.
Opposition don’t want the AS issue resolved, it’s their key playing card.
by zoidlord on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:41 pm
SK @ 6200
Apart from some very sick individuals, no-one does.
The Malaysia solution seemed a plausible option. Something of a ‘least bad’ solution.
by bemused on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:41 pm
Its about time too!
by rummel on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:43 pm
bemused,
At this stage it has to be better than doing nothing.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:43 pm
Goodnight all. I hope to hear some better news in the morning.
by bemused on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:43 pm
What we need to do is get serious about penalties to those who profit. Then countries like Indonesia will get serious about them too. If it is pointed out to Indonesia and like countries that if Asylum Seekers know they will not have a path to countries like Australia. Then they may choose to try countries closer to home. This means a regional approach to break people smuggling’s business model. So tell Indonesia as example country. For every people smuggler arrested with what we think are real penalties we take X amount of refugees out of their camp for processing.
The option of boats would quickly dry up.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:44 pm
Rummel. just can’t help yourself can you.
i was being non-partisan in my disappointment.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:45 pm
Hamilton and Quiggin on a major government board. Would have to be the first genuine Left appointees by the government.
by bluegreen on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:45 pm
night all.
by middle man on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:46 pm
same, I am off to the land of nod.
by Space Kidette on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:46 pm
For those who are genuinely interested in facts about refugees and asylum seekers, rather than political point-scoring and irrational emotively laden argument, resources provided by organisations such as the Refugee Council of Australia at http://www.refugeecouncil.org.au/ are useful and enlightening.
For example, its fact sheets on asylum seeker issues, including boat arrivals:
http://www.refugeecouncil.org.au/f/as-boat.php
by Pegasus on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:47 pm
Egypt on the Brink
As Generals stall re democracy
______________________
All major groups in Egypt now demand a civalian regime…but the generals are full of tricks
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/06/201262023501862710.html
by deblonay on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:48 pm
Strawman. What is “obvious” is that we would rather have the policies we advocate enacted and not be participants in subverting them so that some momentary tactical advantage can accrue to some other organisation that is hostile to those policies.
SK said:
I recall JG going out of her way to declare us Greens inauthentic innercity elites who, unlike her, set no store by rising with the alarm clock, who failed to see a kind of Keir Hardy nobility in work, who were indifferent to community and such like. This was not only offensive and bizarre and trolling but a straight rip off of the line being run by Bolt and Costello at the time.
fredn asked:
The size of the polluter compensation, the periodicity over which the protection to the filth merchants was offered, the lack of any review mechanism to adjust the protection or any model to distinguish protection from trade disadvantage related to fugitive emissions from more general movements in trade advantage, the low targets, the reliance on CC&S for those low targets, the lack of a 2050 target, the absence of substantial support for renewables …
by Fran Barlow on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:48 pm
People are drowning as we speak and Pegasus is whingeing about “emotively laden” argument, whatever that might possibly mean.
by Jake on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:51 pm
As I understand it, the boat capsized in Indonesian waters, yet they palm the rescue operation on to us.
Indonesia are very largely to blame for the whole boat people crisis.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:53 pm
You have one member in the lower house. One.
by Jake on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:54 pm
Jake
A vital vote for Labor. Without Bandt’s vote it is quite possible that at this minute Abbott would be sitting in the Lodge. Every sitting day the Greens prove, along with Windsor, oakshott and Wilkie they do not want Abbott as Prime Minister. Their actions speak volumes.
by guytaur on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:58 pm
and that will stop the people smugglers how ?
Furthermore that will stop people risking their lives by getting on leaky boats in what way ?
Well given the smug, sanctamonious, attitude that many Greens display can you blame the PM for having these frustrations ?
Again, you miss the point, by refusing to comprimise you helped sew the seeds where we are likely to see end up with Australias most anti-environemtal Government well ever have.
by Mick Collins on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:58 pm
Time to end this asylum seeker madness.
Grow some balls greens, work with the govt and get the malaysian solution passed.
This must end now it has gone to far.
by Henry on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:58 pm
Peg
They are free from persecution in Malaysia, and then also in Indonesia as they pass through.
They choose to flee poverty or seek prosperity and risk their and their families lives to seek it. It is a cultural artefact. If you had read the anthropological and ethnographic studies you would see a pattern of long migration to flee wars AND to seek economic gain (and send remittances home).
In fact, a large proportion of Afghans have fled and returned to Afghanistan, once, if not twice.
This is not a simple fleeing persecution, we must help them argument. They are free from persecution (if they ever were persecuted) once they leave Afghanistan.
Your argument is dead. There needs to be a disincentive so big that they don’t make the journey.
Also Australia should divert a lrge proportion of its Spooks funding to finding and subverting the smuggler networks and Australia should fund giant billboards of people drowning at sea on the voyage to australia.
by bluegreen on Jun 21, 2012 at 11:58 pm
Jake 6206 Re Greens and Labor
________
________It may come as a surprise to you…but Gillard only went to the GG with the news that should had the numbers for a Minority Govt AFTER her deal with the Greens
Otherwise it would all be over months ago
The Greens have kept their part of the deal
Why are some ALP people so unwilling to accept reality ???
If you wan’t Abbott as PM then try going it alone
The Greens are essential and their votes remain very constant in all the polls
In NSW they represent about 1/3 of the progressive vote and nearly that in other states
BTW
Watch the Melb By–election next month
With the Liberals out..they just saved Labor last election.eiyj prefs..the Greens will likely win noe…quite convincingly..just .as they could win several other heartland ALP seats in inner Melb(….Richmond/Northcote/Brunswick and possibly Albert Park..they have 3 Upper House seats now
so get used to it !!!
by deblonay on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:00 am
The other thing to bear in mind is this — those who get onto vessels that are either inherently ill-suited to deepwater maritime operation, or staffed by those ill-equipped to manage them, or make them unseaworthy by overcrowding are taking a calculated risk. Their calculations may turn out to be tragically wrong, or not, but in the end, it is their choice framed of course by the context of which we, their country of origin and all the places in between are a part.
Nobody wants vulnerable people dying at sea. It’s a dreadful thing. On the other hand, nobody ought to compel people with reckoning that risk against staying in a place where they can watch their children brutalised by a corrupt or incompetent regime, or armed gangs of criminals or grow up without a chance of a dignified existence when that is a possibility.
If we wish them to regard fleeing their country and getting onto such a vessel as the worst of all the options then we are really bound to do whatever we reasonably can to give them better options. At the moment however, the policy debate between the majors is which options will most prejudice the calculus in favour of accepting squalor and misery rather than getting onto such a vessel without making the party proposing it seem like inhuman monsters to those who are a little squeamish. People suffering and dying slowly in some place where th Daily Tele has no photographers is clearly much more politically palatable — which is why the Libs “Howard stopped the boats” line is run. The line itself is moot now of course, but all that really amounts to is a guarantee that the suffering of people about whom our leaders pretend concern takes place out of sight and out of mind.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:03 am
Night
by guytaur on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:07 am
So we should impliment measures that are least likely to see people risking their lives and drowning.
Open door on shore processing sure as hell doesn’t do that
by Mick Collins on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:08 am
TLM @ 6221
Your ignorance of the customary law of the sea, and of international maritime law is transparent.
Best you be quiet about such matters since you are placing ill informed views.
by psyclaw on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:08 am
deblonay
I’m wondering why they are so unwilling to accept democracy. People voted for the Greens because of their policies. If they wanted Labor policies, they would have voted Labor.
The Greens would quickly become extinct if they just did what Labor wanted. What party voluntarily commits suicide? Just look at what happened to the Democrats.
by Diogenes on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:10 am
Yeah why don’t we just fly them here first class fran barlow.
Surely the better option is they live rather than drown or would you prefer that to preserve the greens intellectual purity. So in other words you would rather they just drown.
Pathetic.
by Henry on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:12 am
I wouldn’t say elites Fran, just garden variety BORING. “Keir Hardy nobility in work”
Laugh out Loud.
by grey on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:12 am
Are all you Labor people now agreeing with Abbott that Labor was responsible for luring AS to their deaths when they got rid of TPVs before the Malaysian Solution was proposed?
by Diogenes on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:14 am
The typical journey of a refugee seeking safety – Afghanistan to Pakistan to Malaysia to Indonesia and finally to Australia by boat:
http://www.amnesty.org.au/refugees/comments/27690/
by Pegasus on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:17 am
SHY has in the past declared they should just be flown here from Indonesia.
She has no response to claims this would open up the door to non genuine refugees however. I’m gathering they were an after-thought.
by confessions on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:17 am
Accept democracy? I’m not asking the Greens to support our policies. I’m saying that we shouldn’t form alliances with the Greens. People voted Labor because they wanted Labor policies, not Greens policies.
by Jake on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:19 am
I think they see it as neutralised, which is not what they want but better than nothing. For them there are three possible situations:
1. Completely hamstrung by the opposition, ALP get the blame (good)
2. Nobody gets their way, everyone shares the blame (not good)
3. ALP solution gets passed (disastrous)
They already lost 1 last year when they put their Nauru plan up against the ALP one; they’ll be buggered if they’re going to lose 2 as well.
There’s really very little the ALP can do. Everyone knows that Nauru-then-turn-the-boats-back is no solution (if for no other reason than that it hasn’t even been thought through), so no-one in their right mind would support it. They’re already processing on-shore, which is more or less what the Greens were after. They’ve even offered to incorporate Nauru into the policy if it will appease the Coalition.
by Aguirre on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:19 am
Dio:
I see that MJF has finally retired.
Will Sth Australians ever recoop the money they paid out for her legal defence?
And who is likely to be chosen as her replacement?
by confessions on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:20 am
Jake
Fine. Complain to Gillard about it. It’s a Labor problem.
by Diogenes on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:20 am
You’ll have to be more specific Dio, that doesn’t make sense.
by Jake on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:21 am
Isn’t this a politics blog Dio?
by Jake on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:22 am
Fair enough. At the time I was seriously disappointed that the Greens didn’t support Labor when they needed it.
Considering the biggest damage done to the Labor campaign was done by leaks from their own, I don’t think Labor voters have much to complain about.
by fredn on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:23 am
Greens are full of ideas but not realities.
Well here’s a reality – support the Malaysian resolution, reduce the boats and cut out the drownings at sea. Simple.
Ready greens?
by Henry on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:23 am
And don’t you just wish the Liberals had the same small minded attitude to the National party.
by fredn on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:25 am
fess
We didn’t pay for her defense (as in the tax payers) but she has applied to get some of her costs paid for by the tax-payer. Evidently the taxpayer normally pays something of the defense costs but it’s not much. Her lawyer is asking for the taxpayer to pay more than normal. A judge decides that fairly soon.
I’d never heard of the next person on the Senate ticket when this came up before, but they could go for anyone.
They could really do with a decent SA senator; we’ve had some really useless Lib ones recently.
by Diogenes on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:25 am
That’s not what Abbott is saying.
by Henry on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:25 am
It’s beyond comprehension really. IMO, cognitive dissonance could explain, in part, why the level of bile and vitriol directed at the Greens is so irrational in nature and so extreme in its stridency.
by Pegasus on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:25 am