Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
What chance of success does Fortescue Metals have?
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:35 pm
I get the feeling I might agree with Fran a fair bit of the time. But it’s so much trouble to unpick her posts, and things move so quickly around here, that often I don’t make the effort. I don’t know if that says more about me than her, but there you go.
Should also mention that often I won’t write a post because I know that by the time I’ve finished and posted it everyone has moved on. And I’ll be damned if I’m going to add any more to the avalanche of Assange and AS posts we have already. Merry-go-rounds make me nauseous.
by Aguirre on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:35 pm
And to add detail, especially words that are redundant through express tautology.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:36 pm
Shorter Guytaur:
I can’t support any of my arguments, so I’m going to my room to have a sulk.
Thanks for playing.
by zoomster on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:37 pm
victoria
Wayne Swan has said he is confident regarding the Constitutionality of the Mining Tax. I am no lawyer but from what I have seen said about it being on profits not on resource means that it appears to abide by the constitution. Expert lawyers seem to think so.
I would guess Forrest has about a ten% chance of winning. However that is only a guess.
by guytaur on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Betchya that Fran has never actually spent some time and spoken to a refugee.
In all her waffle she would rather accuse others as being some-how anti-refugee all because they would rather see these people not drown, even if that means going ahead with the “malaysian solution”.
According to Fran, that people drown in these circumstances are merely collateral damage sustained inorder to let some sort of “higher principle” stand.
by Mick Collins on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:38 pm
Shorter Zoomster
I have to have the last word so my credibility may seem intact.
Thanks for playing.
by guytaur on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:38 pm
It’s pretty clear why they backed-off CC. If you can’t see it, too bad.
Whatever the reason, Twiggy is left (as others here have posted) pushing shit uphill with a pointy stick with his present Appeal.
by smithe on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:39 pm
guytaur
Thanks.
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Hi Bludgers,
I have returned from the Library, where I again was attempting to bring home every single book, and again was thwarted by their rules on limits!
What was that movie that Leonardo Di Caprio was in where he had everyone convinced he was a Pilot and various other hi falutin jobs?
I think Assange may well turn out to be the equivalent of that dude. So paranoid and self-deluded, but high functioning enough to suck everyone into his aggrandised fantasies.
by Space Kidette on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:40 pm
SK
Conman?
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:41 pm
I am now resisting the temptation to utter a pedantic usage note … Language is one of those rare areas in which public opinion may well be decisive. Porvided there is no serious ambiguity, us pedants should porbably step back.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:42 pm
compact crank
the clause of the Constitution which has called all the legal discussion about a challenge to MRRT backfiring.
the point is that the Crown owns all the minerals in Australia, is the Crown the States? or the Commonwealth. There is an argument that the State royalties are unconstitutional.
by sprocket_ on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:42 pm
SK
Catch me if you can?
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Sk
You could be on the money regarding Assange. I just think that questions need to be answered so as to make the public clear the process is correct. I think it has not been. As I have stated before we found out about a flaw in the EU warrant system that the UK could be looking at revising as we type.
by guytaur on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:43 pm
Ooops Skitt’s Law violation or dyslexia. Take your pick.
“Provided”; “probably”
by Fran Barlow on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:43 pm
Correct.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Within the last hour, as it goes …
by Fran Barlow on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:46 pm
Now that would be a funny turn of events
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:47 pm
Just got a digital age shock. Turned the teev on and they were in the middle of a news segement on flooding at Kooweerup. A bit strange seeing a road underwater upon which I had cycled many times as a child.
First time since 1934 but it is not liketo-like. Circumstances have changed with major constructed floodways protecting the main part of the town from 1934-type floods.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:47 pm
smithe,
Forrest was always going to be up against it with a challenge to the MRRT, but these corporate heavyweight types are not used to being denied. I bet Newman and Barnett are wishing that Twiggy would leave it alone. Having said that, the recent School Chaplaincy decision is being said by some to suggest a shift by the current bench towards a more federal – that is, state-based – understanding of the Commonwealth, in which case they may well rule that the property rights in the minerals rests with the states. Either way, the MRRT is simply not a tax on property, so the challenge fails.
Should be interesting.
by Jake on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:47 pm
Fran
You could only better that by handing the keyboard over to a refugee standing next to you.
by guytaur on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:47 pm
About time somone said it. Same goes for this dolphin baby talk and the 6.5 star general and amigos crap that seems to have thankfully gone away.
by Roy Orbison on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:48 pm
DG
Knew it started with a “c”
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:48 pm
Victoria
by Gaffhook on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:49 pm
Public schools are full of refugees.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:49 pm
@6612 – If there is an argument that the State Royalties are unconstitutional then why isn’t and hasn’t that argument been made by the ALP? It has never publicly done so. The ALP has rolled out the platitude that the minerals belong to all Australians – which is clearly not the case – they belong to the States.
It would have saved a lot of political pain for the ALP if they had made and won that argument. The ALP have once again proven themselves incompetent in making and implimenting policy.
by Compact Crank on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:49 pm
victoria,
I think that is it. Sounds right.
I have this nagging gut feeling that all is not as it seems. The thing that keeps me wondering is not what you’d think, like the obvious discrepencies between the Assange story or the fact they were on the attack from day one.
The thing that I keep coming back to is the number of otherwise intelligent women he has been able to charm. And I mean the look of sheer idolatry on that female lawyers face is just one indicator.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Julian has been living on his charm and good looks to a point where he believes the stories he tells.
by Space Kidette on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:50 pm
They killed Larvartus Prodeo because of Fran Barlow – just be buggered putting up with her wastage of electrons.
She’s a freaking Marxist who should have her citizenship revoked and be forcibly removed to North Korea.
by Compact Crank on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:51 pm
Crank = Oddball
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Australia received several million european refugees who fled the economic wasteland of Post WW2 europe, the threat of the Russian bear, dictatorial regimes of one hue or another, war trauma, decolonization, dis-empirization, etc, etc,
They nearly all arrived by boat.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:53 pm
CC,
They let Right Wing nutjobs in so why not Fran?
by Space Kidette on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:53 pm
gaffhook
I really do hope so.
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Well, even after translation I can’t say I agree with many of her posts, but the constant usage of high-falutin’ verbiage is curious.
As for this little gem:
Education and familiarity with the language is one thing. This nonsense is something else again.
I can see why LP died: It choked getting all those big words out and the ER staff were unable to intubate the patient in time to allow it to breathe.
by smithe on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:53 pm
SK
Assange is a legend in is own mind
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:56 pm
@6630 – on boats, with Identification papers, and minimal welfare drain on our resources, and no it wasn’t perfect racial harmony – just like the hundreds of thousands we are accepting through the programs we have in place today – which has bipartisan support in the Parliament and the community.
by Compact Crank on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:57 pm
#fakeAbbott#
Great stuff. It is retro, so it’s in. Sooooo fifties!
I particularly like the simple-minded approach to a simple problem, the rank intolerance, and the gut urge to punish someone who does not agree with us. Good stuff. Keep it up. When I get in, FB is top of the list to get put in the first unseaworthy boat to North Korea.
Vision statement: Suck up to the very rich; whack the ordinary Joe; root the environment.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:57 pm
SK
I would add that Julian is amoral
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:57 pm
You pedants should also recognise there’s no such word as ‘porbably’. Or ‘porvided’.
by Aguirre on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:58 pm
@6631 – if Fran had her way we would be living like Tibetian Serfs.
by Compact Crank on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:59 pm
vic
And you know that how?
by MTBW on Jun 22, 2012 at 12:59 pm
perhaps someone should point out to therese rein how hard it was for all those who voted for her husband when he let them down so badly as an inferior prime minister
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/the-crushing-of-kevin-kindness-saved-the-day-says-rein-20120622-20s6a.html
by Lyne Lady on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Gee fran, must think i am a linguistic nong
by my say on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:00 pm
A
Being a frequent transgressor and leading exponent of Murphy’s laws in the domains of grammar, spelling and punctuation, I resisted that one. But it did come to mind.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:00 pm
@6636 – she is an admitted Marxist and even claimed on LP to have named her children after Marx.
I can cop ALP lefties and unionists – they have all contributed to makng Australia the best country in the world – Marxists and Stalinists on the other hand should be treated with the same contempt held for any facilitators of genocidal murderers views.
by Compact Crank on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:02 pm
No My Say , You are just someone that uses simple language to get your point across effectively – and there is nothing the matter with that.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:02 pm
And if Abbott had his, we’d all be living like European serfs.
by smithe on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Boerwar
Les Murray and his family escaped Hungary with the help of a “people smuggler” his words.
by poroti on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Mtbw
The same way you know things
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:03 pm
the Karl or Groucho variety?
by blackburnpseph on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:03 pm