Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Deblonay,
My silly statements? I was defending Fran’s right to post.
by Space Kidette on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:33 pm
I thought Jason Clare came across very well this morning. He’s one to watch.
by Diogenes on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:33 pm
Oh and deblonay, your considerably schoolyard knowledge wouldn’t be because you haven’t managed to leave it yet?
by Space Kidette on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:34 pm
Dio
Agree with you on Jason Clare he is concise and to the point.
by MTBW on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:37 pm
Dio,
He was good. Covered it clearly and across the breadth of the situation.
by Space Kidette on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:39 pm
A year or so ago the boat sinking would have been an unmitigated political disaster for the Government on a NewsPoll weekend, but now I’m not so sure.
After the High Court torpedoed the Malaysia deal and the Tories torpedoed the remedial Legislation that would possibly have allowed the deal to be reinstated, who knows where the pubic will lay the blame? They’re well aware that the Government had devised a solution and that the Opposition has kiboshed-it, so I’m punting that they’ll lay at least a significant portion of the blame for the tragedy where it belongs, with the Tories.
We’ll just have to wait and see what the polling says.
by smithe on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:42 pm
poroti – I know Les Murray well. Lives down the highway a bit from me and his family have been in the area since the year dot. Is there another Les Murray besides the poet?
by BH on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:43 pm
I think one is quite sufficient BH.
by smithe on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:46 pm
Has Rob Oakeshott said anything this morning about the bill he is trying to get through the House on AS and offshore processing?
by BH on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:49 pm
Mr Abbott on asylum seekers today
But then he launches straight into political point scoring
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/asylum-deal-would-prevent-deaths-independent-mp-rob-oakeshott/story-fn59niix-1226405461935
Mr Abbott is obviously incapable of considering this life and death issue on a rational basis.
As I posted this morning, why does the Opposition need to remain intransigent on asylum seeker issues when they believe they have the next election in the bag with the “carbon tax” and numerous Labor “failures”.
by citizen on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:51 pm
BH
This one is the SBS “Mr Soccer” Les Murray .
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/bigideas/stories/2010/06/22/2932538.htm
by poroti on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:51 pm
Ha!
The Hungarian born Les Murray is the football (soccer) commentator
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Les_Murray_(broadcaster)
by bluegreen on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:52 pm
Blackburn my mistake, Linfox
Googled the plane rego number from a photo on Morrisons Twit stream.
by Pipe Fitter on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:52 pm
BW
Do what most of us do BW, ignore the Crankenstein. He is not worth the time or minimum of intellectual effort to respons.
Can’t argue logically with right-wing nut jobs who, wait for it, used to drive a tank.
by Tricot on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:53 pm
Wrong. Abbott wants his rich mates to become even wealthier. The rest of us are just pawns.
by Darn on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:53 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:54 pm
BH – Oakshotte is on the money IMHO
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/asylum-deal-would-prevent-deaths-independent-mp-rob-oakeshott/story-fn59niix-1226405461935
by sprocket_ on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:56 pm
SK & Others – My old cynical, experienced self, says that you are right about Assange. He ticks all the warning boxes for females to ‘BEWARE – touch at your peril’ and seems to have been able to get away with charming the ladies, and everyone else, for a long time. He believes his own fantasy.
by BH on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Yeah and my Grand Parents, Uncles, Aunties etc were all erfugees. But hey not wanting to see refugees drown must make me some sort of facist
by Mick Collins on Jun 22, 2012 at 1:56 pm
@mashable: See what Twitter’s new San Francisco headquarters look like (the birdfeeder kitchen is pretty awesome) – http://t.co/DDNkgov2
by guytaur on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Thanks PatriciaWA. When done I will (with your permission) obtain your email address off William if that is aceptable to you and work out how to send you a CD.
by Lynchpin on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:04 pm
thanks, poroti, soccer is not my strong point.
smithe – I don’t think there’ll be another like our local Les Murray. Not around here anyway.
sprocket_ thanks for the Oakey piece. Exactly the right thing to say today and I’m sorry that SHY is taking the same intransigent line that Abbott is. We’ll get nowhere fast if there is not better processing in the countries already housing refugees.
by BH on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:07 pm
@Simon_Cullen: Federal Liberal backbencher Mal Washer says all options – including the Malaysia solution – now need to be reconsidered. Story online soon.
by guytaur on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:09 pm
Good on Oakeshott. Spot on IMO.
I suspect that the press gallery might start putting a little bit of pressure on Morrison and Abbott on the boats issue over the next few days. It’ll be relatively pissweak, especially from the Murdoch press, but at least it will unsettle them a bit.
The two obvious questions to ask Abbott are:
1. “Howard used TPVs, turning back the boats and Nauru to good effect. But that was ten years ago: why are you so certain that these deterrents will still work, especially given that the Immigration Department told you in no uncertain terms that they won’t.”
2. You have said that the Malaysian solution is unacceptable because Malaysia has not signed the UN Convention on Refugees. But neither has Indonesia, and you want to turn boats back to that country. How is that different to the Malaysian solution?”
(The true answer to 2, as I explained in an earlier post today is that god-botherers like Abbott and Morrison finding the idea of turning people away BEFORE they ask for asylum more palatable than the idea of expelling them from their “sanctuary” in Australia after they have arrived and sought refuge here. I know it doesn’t make much sense, but the obligation to provide sanctuary to those who seek it from you is a very old and deep-seated Christian sentiment and it is about one manifesting and protecting one’s own spiritual worth far more than it is about meeting the spiritual or material needs of the person who asks for help. In other words, it’s a load of poppycock, but one which drives the thinking (if that’s the word) of a lot of the bleeding hearts who opposed the Malaysian solution and I believe it has also influenced Abbott and Morrison.)
by meher baba on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Boerwar – have you seen this re the lake in Russia 2.8mill yrs data.
http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/06/2-8-million-years-of-climate-data-lurking-in-russian-lake/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+arstechnica%2Findex+%28Ars+Technica+-+All+content%29
by BH on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Victoria gets bitter and twisted about anything that may in some obscure way reflect negatively on gillard. Anyway, if Rudd gets back in she will vote Liberal, lol. Says a lot.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:13 pm
I’d have thought my post indicated just that.
The issue of Q’s sovereignty re mineral rights has been “live” since massive exploitation of mineral rights, esp over oil, natural gas & coal (& over sand mining, especially in areas deserving of environmental protection; eg Cooloola Sands & Fraser Island) began in the early 1960s, and was esp. widely canvassed during Hawke/ Keating Governments’ Resource Rent Tax efforts: See references in Keating’s back to the future tax plan.
Qld’s mining of mineral sands at Cooloola, on Fraser Is, and intent to drill for oil on the Great Barrier Reef – and the intervention of the Whitlam and Fraser governments to stop such mining – taught the Bjelke Petersen government to be very wary of Commonwealth interference over mining in sensitive/ environmentally important areas (as did the ILO treaty in trying to limit union rights; Q referendum1910 over foisting more RE on state schools, and 1983 Gordon-below-Franklin in pushing state rights).
More recently, the whole Qld case re sovereignty over minerals has been hotly argued – especially in my area – since Downs & Western Qld farmers awoke to the CSG threat implicit in long-dormant mining tenements. It became a major consideration in Bligh Government’s response to quarantining prime agricultural land, and in the progress of CSG and other mining in GAB and LEB areas and their catchments. In addition, that concern over sovereignty, as well as the Bligh government commitment to protection of Indigenous land against mining giants; pristine rivers & their catchments, and vital artesian basins (GAB, LEB) against degradation from mining activities, underpinned Qld’s Wild River legislation.
The possibility that Twiggy Forrest reawakens the Commonwealth’s interests in mining rights, and its record of defending its right to over-ride states’ rights in this regard, ought to deter premiers of major mining states from backing him. Barnett and Bligh certainly recognised the dangers; but whether Newman does is moot. He does tend to be more CanMouthOff than CanDo; but I wouldn’t like to depend on it.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Barnaby compares Australia’s and Greece’s (bigger) debt to dead bodies in a graveyard: “It’s like saying that one’s more dead than that one.”
by triton on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Mumble’s piece on legislative changes to get and keep more people on the Electoral Roll that were passed last night. Despite the many confected arguments and issues that run here on PB, this could actually be the biggest game changer that will affect the outcome of the next election.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/direct_enrolment/
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:15 pm
I certainly hope so. I think it is becoming clearer to the electorate that the Libs are playing politics with people’s lives.
Even Malcolm Fraser called them evil this week.
by Lynchpin on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Lynchpin, William sent me your email address last night. I wrote at once. I will again!
by PatriciaWA on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:19 pm
TP,
So who you voting for with Gillard as Leader?
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:20 pm
GG – did you see the one by Barrie Cassidy?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-22/cassidy-what-if-the-disenfranchised-finally-vote/4084844
by Leroy on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:21 pm
I wonder if the Commonwealth could have as an alternative defence in the MRRT case that even if the tax is invalidated on the basis that Twiggy advances, NEVERTHELESS it is valid as a royalty.
Twiggy’s primary point seems likely to be chucked out anyway, so the latter proposition may not have to be decided. However, there would at least have to be argument about it and it would raise the political pressure on the states.
Alternatively, surely thee’s a s small Labor friendly mining company somewhere which could put in a challenge against the state royalties it pays.
by ajm on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:21 pm
vexnews unloads on Fairfax…
http://www.vexnews.com/2012/06/putting-on-the-writs-multiple-faux-pas-to-please-lawyers-and-remind-us-the-death-of-fairfax-is-quite-a-jolly-affair/
by sprocket_ on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:22 pm
Language is about communication – thoughts, facts, implications, context and emotion all tied into one. Unless you are writing something that has to be formal nobody gives a rat’s about spelling, grammar and so on.
The above is probably grammatically a mess and spelling mistakes everywhere. but i couldn’t give a toss really because it simply isn’t relevant to the form of communication we are engaged in.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:23 pm
Don’t hold your breath!
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:25 pm
ajm
To find one of those you would probably need to look in the paddock where they keep the unicorns .
by poroti on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:26 pm
PatriciWA, I will check my email address now.
by Lynchpin on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:27 pm
Regarding States’ Ownership of Minerals
OzPol
From The Payroll Tax case, per Windeyer J:
“The Colonies which in 1901 became States in the new Commonwealth were not before then sovereign bodies in any strict legal sense; and certainly the Constitution did not make them so. They were self-governing colonies which, when the Commonwealth came into existence as a new Dominion of the Crown, lost some of their former powers and gained no new powers. They became components of a federation, the Commonwealth of Australia. It became a nation.”
by psyclaw on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:27 pm
Oakeshot
What is his bill pls
by my say on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:29 pm
GG, assuming that opinion polls don’t ask respondents if they’re on the roll, you would expect elections to produce a more right-wing result than the polls indicate if a disproportionate number of lefties can’t vote.
by triton on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:29 pm
On Alan Kohler. His comment at the end is irrelevant…or rather, it has been a completely inappropriate situation all the time not now simply that he is a News Corp staffer
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/abcs-kohler-embroiled-in-conflict-of-interest-claims-20120621-20qv4.html#ixzz1yUdDY8SJ
by Laocoon on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Roy Orbison @ 6622
I am in furious agreement with that. I think most adults on PB would be.
by bemused on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Don’t forget mobile phones are used.
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Do dung beetles have littler dung beetles to deal with their dung and ad infinitum..?
I assume you would be one of the littler ones.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Latika Bourke @latikambourke
Tony Abbott says if the nationals Senator Fiona Nash contests Hume against the Liberals, he’s confident it will be a ‘friendly’ contest.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:33 pm
Gecko
I think William has pointed out before that mobile phones are taken into account by the pollsters, I think by just keeping trying until they get the right quota of each age-group.
by triton on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:34 pm
my say
Oakshott wants to amend the Migration Act to change the reference to “signatories to the UNHCR Convention” to “parties to the Bali Process on refugees”.
This is in the context of the Minister declaring a country to be suitable for offshore processing. Currently Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand etc etc are not signatories of the UNHCR, but are “parties to the Bali Process”and moreover, are the obvious nearby countries which would need to be part of a regional processing arrangement.
Interestingly, the UNHCR convention includes Iran and Zimbabwe as signatories.
by sprocket_ on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Jason Clare
yes someone to watch – clear, concise, unruffled – very very good.
by Lyne Lady on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:34 pm