Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
Page 1 of 3 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Lyne Lady @ 6641
As opposed the the raging success of Julia Gillard who is currently on track to lead Labor to a record defeat.
by bemused on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:36 pm
I thought he said they hadn’t worked out a process… will go back and check.
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:36 pm
I was under the impression that Jackson had recorded her conversation with Shorten. The transcript of it included a couple of hesitations by Jackson that gave an air of verisimilitude.
If so, we may not see Shorten suing after all.
Then again, I suppose she could have put the “hesitations” in to make Shorten think the conversation was recorded.
The ultimate question is: “Why does Kathy Jackson love courts so much? Is it something about wigs and gowns that sets her off?”
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:38 pm
Triton,
Gecko raises my point in response. The reason that a lot of these people are not polled is that many only have mobile phones.
This was the point of a discussion a couple of weeks ago where the reliability of the polls were being questioned on the basis that large chunks of the voting population in certain demographics with certain lifestyles are not being captured in the polls. The question is at what time does this become a credibility issue for polling companies and what are they going to do about it in the future?
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:39 pm
I normally have a lot of time for Green policies, but they have totally lost it on refugee policy.
Basically, the Greens put their head in the sand, cross their fingers, and vote No. Not good enough.
by sprocket_ on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:39 pm
this is worth a listen… apparently the only raison d’etre for the Australian is purely political
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/counterpoint/sally-y/4072884
by Lyne Lady on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:39 pm
From IA article. Is this actually correct? Tapping phones is illegal. But simply taping a conversation, with or without their knowledge or consent – is that illegal?
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/philosophy/law/jacksonville-federal-court/
by Laocoon on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:40 pm
says alot about the UNs credibility
by Mick Collins on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:41 pm
I say, good luck Mr Washer. I hope your efforts are more than rhetoric.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-22/opposition-mp-flags-malaysian-solution/4086976
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:43 pm
sprocket,
Hear, hear!
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:44 pm
k William has pointed out before that mobile phones are taken into account by the pollsters, I think by just keeping trying until they get the right quota of each age-group.
I thought he said they hadn’t worked out a process… will go back and check.)
How could you unless u actually speak to a person
by my say on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:47 pm
I was excited to get a call on the rarely used home phone line last evening around 6pm, from a polling company. I thought “at last, it’s Newspoll!”
But it was another compony calling on behalf of the Australian government asking questions about travel & tourism. Had I been on any holidays OS, within Australia, >4 hours drive away etc and how much I spent.
At the end I volunteered that I prefer Gillard over Abbott, but the humorless lass taking the survey gave me no response…
by docantk on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Mal washer and some others in the liberals can put pressure on Abbotts leadership
cross the floor
by Meguire Bob on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:48 pm
Triton & GG
Sorry, William’s piece I thought mentioned mobiles was on Queens birthday postals… so we’ll have to wait for him to set us straight.
If the census reveals 1.5m voters are off the roll… and the bulk are left leaning (a fair guess I suppose) … plus mobiles are not used in poll gathering… it could lead to a hefty correction of the status quo.
Good to see the government are on to it.
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:50 pm
The Abbott leadership of the liberals would have to be finish, if there are a few in the coalition who cross and vote with the governemnt
by Meguire Bob on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:50 pm
GG
I didn’t see that. I suppose it is possible, for one reason or another, that the voting intention of an 18yo who might be at a location to answer a landline phone (whether he/she has a mobile phone or not) is different from an 18yo who would never be.
by triton on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:51 pm
I applaud Dr Washer for his vocal encouragement for the conservatives to stop playing politics with people smuggling.
Unfortunately though, with Abbott and Morrison leading on this issue there is not much hope of progress.
SHY & the Greens really are ignoring realities (deaths at sea) – one wonders if Milne as leader can move on this issue.
Such a gut wrenching mess this is.
by Rex Douglas on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:51 pm
Greensborough Growler
There could be movement in other areas as well. On Monday we saw the formation of the WA Parliamentary Friends of Disability Reform with MPs from all sides.They want to establish similar groups in all state parliaments. Could such groups end up softening some of the harder lines the Coalition federally are taking ?
http://everyaustraliancounts.com.au/red_letter_day_for_wa_and_the_ndis/
by poroti on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:53 pm
Rex Douglas
There is a easy fix for Mal Washer to show he is serious, by crossing the floor
Otherwise its just talk
by Meguire Bob on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:53 pm
The cynic in me says it is dog whistling by the Liberals.
by Lynchpin on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:57 pm
@latikambourke: 6.0 magnitude quake recorded 25 km of Macquarie Island, Australia. (9km deep)
by guytaur on Jun 22, 2012 at 2:57 pm
sprocket
Party pooper!
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Good point. Different leader… different strategy. A compromise on numbers / a trial period with an on-shore processing tail… that they wouldn’t get if Liberals cave.
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Lynchpin @ 6769
I agree with your view
by Meguire Bob on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Hi PatriciaWA, I have responded to your email.
by Lynchpin on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:02 pm
apologies if these has already been posted Verse 2 of Advance Australia Fair
Beneath our radiant Southern Cross
We’ll toil with hearts and hands;
To make this Commonwealth of ours
Renowned of all the lands;
For those who’ve come across the seas
We’ve boundless plains to share;
With courage let us all combine
To Advance Australia Fair.
In joyful strains then let us sing,
Advance Australia Fair.
by Lyne Lady on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Thanks, BH.
It’s a really exciting find, especially for those interested in paleoclimatology (inc archeology tragics like me). I’ve seen short scientific “notes” on it, but not a full article. It’s also offers a wonderful specific context to Prof Ian Stewart’s series How to Grow a Planet, all episodes available on You Tube (Episode 1 & leads to other episodes) @ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1VNt0mwStZI
Otoh, it’s not good news for those who still cling to so many of the climate myths that circulated prior to Copenhagen; myths so much at odds with rigorous scientific evidence. Earth’s climate does change naturally; sea levels do rise and fall naturally; atmospheric CO2 & SO2 levels do rise and fall naturally, and have since before life on Earth began.
What we don’t currently know – and what drives almost all scientists and those interested in the rigorous sciences – to support the urgent reduction of atmosphere CO2 – is the extent to which natural cycles are made worse and/or greater by pollution due to human activity, esp the use of fuels etc which do add to SO2 and CO2 levels.
It’s interesting that, when nations gathered at Rio1 in 1992, Europeans (and some other N hemisphere nations) came with established plans for reducing excessive human-created gas levels; ones which did a great job cleaning up atmospheric & riverine/ lake SO2, acid rain etc, and which could be modified to deal with CO2. Little wonder Europe moved rapidly, with little resistance, into alternative energy systems, buildings, CP & ETS. Nor does there seem to be much Euro resistance to strategies for further reducing CO2 levels.
In Australia, OTOH, the strategy leading up to Copenhagen seemed to be hysteria-raising claims (esp by people without credentials in rigorous climatology, esp paleoclimatology & climate of the period after the last Ice Age); many of which proved wrong when the drought broke, rivers & artesian basins filled, rain continued and weather cooled (as it does naturally during wet periods).
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Gecko,
It’s an interesting contention that the polls scientifically poll the population when there are so many anomolies in the voting roll such as people not registered to vote when they should be, interviewing non qualified voters and capturing a misproportionate percentage of people within certain demographics because of lifestyle issues.
Of course the killer with polls is always the initial question, “If there was an election held this weekend…….”
There are also the swings and round abouts of popular opinion as issues come and go. The reality is that opinion can and does change quite significantly.
What it says is that Polls may be a useful guide. But, anyone who makes all their political judgements based solely on Polls without consideration of historical context, their fallibility as predictive instruments and without understanding their shortcomings is kidding themselves.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Lyne Lady
What’s wrong with the original verse 2
by poroti on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:07 pm
@betty_of_bondi: Dear Twitter, you’ve stopped telling me to follow Sophie Mirabella at long last, only to nominate Eric Abetz. You can’t be paying attention
by guytaur on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:07 pm
Washer crossing the floor wouldn’t help much as it wouldn’t pass the Senate.
by Diogenes on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Re Climate and science etc
I recently spent a few hours going through the CERN (Collider) website and thoroughly recommend it as a celebration of science and its achievement… totally mind boggling.
http://public.web.cern.ch/public/en/lhc/lhc-en.html
I cannot conceive anyone would doubt 96% of any scientific group’s findings after browsing this.
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:15 pm
my say,
You are a mine of information on Tasmania.
by C@tmomma on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Diogenes
true , some coalition senators could do the same
Then it would not look good for Abbott , its time for those who say they want this to come to the end in the coalition
should vote with the governemnt in the senate and house
otherwise by doing nothing they are in the same boat as abbott
by Meguire Bob on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:16 pm
Deblonay
Guess what? i reckon Assange is a wanker
TP
Guess what? You have no idea who I vote for, and I dont care to know who you vote for either.
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:16 pm
by Lynchpin on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:17 pm
There needs to be total bi-partisan support for the Malaysian “solution” when it comes to Refugees.
People drowning at sea isn’t good enough.
The COALitions solution will not adress refugees risking their lives on leaky boats.
Neither will the Greens policies help.
It might not sound “nice” but at least the Malaysian “solution” will save lives
by Mick Collins on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:17 pm
poroti,
You have to remember that Abbott’s power over his Party Room has been premised on the likelihood of an imminent election because the Government would fall apart due to whatever “scandal du jour” was running and the parlous state of the numbers. The cry for unity would have been overwhelming for many Libs.
Abbott’s campaign has been a disaster because the Government has basically delivered its programme in spite of the unflailing negativity of the Opposition. July 1 is cathartic in that the Carbon Pricing legislation and all the assorted benefits and offsets come in to play.
So, moderates like Washer (who I believe is retiring at the next election) have sniffed the wind and decided to chance their arm on some traditional Liberalism.
The other aspect is that many Libs think they will win the next election and it is better to have an workable immigration policy in place than chance their arm on a benevolent Labor supporting them in the future.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:17 pm
well worth a read – article on the media by geoff gallop
http://theconversation.edu.au/gina-rinehart-fairfax-and-the-war-politics-of-the-australian-right-7739
by Lyne Lady on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:19 pm
That’s a fact.
It really needs Milne to move here – increase further the quota/intake of legitimate refugees with increased scrutiny of treatment re asylum seekers transferred to Malaysia
by Rex Douglas on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:20 pm
Rex Doulgas #6789
You mean that the Greens might have to comprimise ?
by Mick Collins on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Diogs,
I daresay there will be other Libs prepared to back Washer’s initiative.
My guess is that some hybrid compromise not too dissimilar to what Labor proposed at Christmas may get up. Oakshott is sniffing around this issue also. So, his suggestions may come in to play as a starting point.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:23 pm
If Walsher can convince Libs in the HOR and the Senate to vote for the amendments to the Migration Act, including Oakies amendments, it will pass comfortably.
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:23 pm
Couldn’t agree more, and I’ve been at pains to argue that current polls are merely indicative of the mood at the time. Mid term… without policy & cost revelations from all sides being on the table … they cannot be assumed to represent a definitive outcome.
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:23 pm
There is more chance of the Libs compromising than the Greens on this issue. That is saying something!
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Kim Williams from News Ltd sounds like such a pompous ass.
Every time i hear him interviewed he sounds like one of those dull corporate types who talk in management psychobabble, as if we should be impressed by that.
by Henry on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Henry
Kim Williams reminds me of Mr Magoo. Not kidding!!
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Yes he does victoria doesnt he.
He has a bit of the George Brandis SC about him too, hence the pompous bit!
by Henry on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Henry
I think you will like this then
http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/06/22/bigharto-i-tried-to-shield-you-f-ckers-from-this/
by poroti on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:32 pm
The big question is if Abbott is prepared to let go of AS as a political issue.
This would play to his new persona as a caring sharing person. On the other hand it would take away one of his few remaining attack weapons because he would be part of any solution agreed on.
Abbott will look at the options and consider where the bigger political advantage is for him. If he stays true to form he will look for the short term not long term.
Only time will tell.
by Doyley on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:33 pm