Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Politically it will be very interesting. Abbott is not for turning… but his (supposed) new image attempt and the prospect of Slipper-gate may tip the scale somehow. Milne, on the other hand, may see yet another opportunity for a progressive gain disappear if she doesn’t move… the political capital she would earn in the process might be hard to resist.
Who knows.
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:34 pm
Kim Williams married Gough’s daughter so he must have something going for him.
His glasses are a bit wankerish, though.
Still, he seems an improvement on his predecessor.
by Lynchpin on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:35 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/murdoch-still-dancing-in-the-online-dark-20120622-20sok.html
by Laocoon on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:35 pm
Chris Bowen has his supporters but I’m afraid I’m not really one of them – he needs to get this sorted ASAP.
If this stalemate continues into next year he should be demoted.
by Rex Douglas on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:35 pm
Doyley
Great minds
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:35 pm
@lyndalcurtis: The Senate has adjourned.
So the long break has started. No rush to fix Asylum Seeker problem by any pollie.
by guytaur on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:36 pm
oops sorry. I am a week ahead of myself.
by guytaur on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:36 pm
YAWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN
________________________________________________________________
by ShowsOn on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:37 pm
OC Leone
just took delivery of the ‘independent’ – full of right wing anti labor rants – i did send a letter re the pacific highway but of course not published, no room among the anti labor, anti oakeshott stuff
by Lyne Lady on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Not sure why Latika believes that this somehow helps Swannie
http://www.theage.com.au/business/gina-rinehart-the-untold-story-20120622-20shn.html
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:38 pm
Bowen is one of Rudd’s strongest supporters. His choice, while Gillard is leader, is to stay in Immigration or go to the back bench.
Gillard is basically leaving him in immigration as punishment for supporting Rudd.
by ShowsOn on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:38 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-22/opposition-mp-flags-malaysian-solution/4086976
by Mick Collins on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Gecko,
Its frightening isn’t it !
Cheers.
by Doyley on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Did she tell you that?
by Lynchpin on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:41 pm
http://media.smh.com.au/sport/horse-racing/black-caviar-better-than-phar-lap-3395987.html?from=newsbox
Another icon goes down!
by Lynchpin on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:42 pm
I commend Mr Rudd and Mr Turnbull for taking part in the CEO sleepout and raising awareness re homelessness.
I’d love to believe the homelessness cause was their only motivation but…………
by Rex Douglas on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:44 pm
gg
Washer was on ABC 702 about twenty minutes ago. He is saying that something must be done about the refugee issue and is saying that the Gov and the Opp must work together.
He said that he was a medical practitioner and he is hearing from many of his patients and members of his community that they want something done about this especially now that so many lives have been lost.
He spoke with real feeling in his voice and said that the community at large is upset at the loss of life and he was sure that many in both major parties would be the same.
The tenor of his comments were wtte that basically everyone has to pull their heads in and sort out a solution together. When asked if some of the MPs in the Liberal Party felt the same way as he did he replied with a definite “yes”.
by MTBW on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:46 pm
mtbw
That is very encouraging to hear re Mal Walsher
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:47 pm
Yes.
by ShowsOn on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:51 pm
laocoon
It isn’t illegal, but taped conversations can’t be used as evidence in court unless:
1 A court has given permission for the recording to be made (similar to a warrant being issued).
2 All parties have been notified that it is being recorded and consent to it. This is why call centres warn you that the call is being recorded and ask if that’s OK with you. You are quite within your rights to say no. They must then turn the recording device off. If you say no and they don’t turn the recorder off, what is recorded can never be used against you.
That’s my understanding of it, but I’m not a lawyer. Perhaps shelbell can shed some further light on it.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:52 pm
Well, why doesn’t Washer tell the government that he is willing to vote for the bill to get it through the House of Reps?
by ShowsOn on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:52 pm
http://www.theage.com.au/business/housing-shortage-all-smoke-and-mirrors-20120622-20szh.html
Baillieu using “housing shortage” to open up greenfields sites (as did Brumby).
The only winners are developers. The losers, commuters.
by lizzie on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:53 pm
Shows on i think its just talk from mal washer, until he and his colleagues actually do something in the house and in the senate, its all talk
If they do cross the floor
Then its bye bye Abbott
by Meguire Bob on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:54 pm
Poroti/Lyne Lady 6778
___________________
That pro-British version of Advance Australia Fair is said to have been written by John and Janette Howard in an evening around the piano at Windsor Castle
“with all her faults we love her still
Britannia Rules the Waves “
by deblonay on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:56 pm
Tony Abbott looks like he has aged since the last HoR Sitting period.
.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:56 pm
Thanks Dan
by Laocoon on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:56 pm
Washer has made *noises* on issues previously, then a bit later rolls over and confirms he will vote with the libs on the issue.
Maybe he will follow through this time, but wouldn’t hold your breadth.
If he is not going to back his words with action, he is playing games.
He can’t have it both ways.
by dave on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:57 pm
Not good enough. Let me know when he’s broken.
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:59 pm
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/sda2007210/s7.html
In NSW
Need to be party to a conversation and consent to record
by shellbell on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:59 pm
I really noticed the bags under the eyes of PM Gillard in a clip from Rio on the midday TV News today.
She looked exhausted. Been a very hard two years without let up.
by dave on Jun 22, 2012 at 3:59 pm
dave,
She is also living/working two different time zones at the moment. Never easy.
by Space Kidette on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:00 pm
Puffy
As in a couple of weeks ago?
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:00 pm
Its time for Hockey and Turnbull both to grow some
and say they will support the parliament in stopping the situation we have now
and challenge Abbott
by Meguire Bob on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:01 pm
Thats right SK.
by dave on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:01 pm
Well if Washer wants to be a circuit breaker, he can do so by letting the government get the bill through the house.
Now it may well be defeated in the Senate, but it will only be defeated because of Coalition votes. The Greens are just completely irrational on the whole issue so trying to convince them is a futile exercise.
by ShowsOn on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:01 pm
+1
+1
+1
+1
Up thread there are a few more in that vein, all deserve a +1
by Ootz on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:02 pm
dave,
I reckon you’ve got your bullshit detector at just the right temperature.
Really, for Washer and any alleged soft Libs to have any credibility they need to suggest a workable solution that they will support and not just urge compromise which is code for dithering.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:03 pm
Rex Douglas
I would believe that it is their only motivation.
Let’s give credit where it is due! The cynicism isn’t necessary!
I believe both of those men are honourable and they are better than either you or I who slept warmly in our beds on a very cold night.
by MTBW on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:03 pm
In NSW at least, you can record an audio conversation if you are one of the parties in it, and it is done to protect your legal interests. If Jackson recorded a conversation between her and Shorten and has not released the tape to defame him then she has not broken any laws. That said, she still sounds like a total nutcase.
by Dario on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:04 pm
Ootz,
Love the +ve attitude.
by Jake on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:05 pm
I think there is some sort of Act that makes it illegal to record (i.e. audio) someone without their permission? That is why there is a recording disclosure you when you ring call centre.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:05 pm
http://www.nationaltimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/no-sign-of-early-release-for-australian-lawyer-reports-20120622-20sxi.html
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:05 pm
Turnbull demonstrated his so called *honour* in spades via utegate.
Puulleesss.
by dave on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:06 pm
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
He has reached the stage in a mans life where he must decide whether accept his growing baldness or continue ever incresing (but futile) efforts to hide it. Looking at the photo of his forward roll at the sports center his tonsurial bald spot has come on apace since the end of last year.
by poroti on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:06 pm
dave
+1
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:06 pm
Thanks shellbell – that’s clear
by Laocoon on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:08 pm
From memory, Katter, Oakeshott and Windsor were supporting Malaysia, along with the 71 ALP members (back then, before Slipper replaced Jenkins, then was sidelined), so it was Tony Crook who scuttled the deal passing the HOR (before likely death in the senate).
When Slipper returns in August, then ALP (72) + Katter, Windsor and Oakeshott would see the deal go through HOR. So Washer wouldn’t be needed (before the bill then dies in senate because of LNP and greens…)
by docantk on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:09 pm
dave,
I think some former leaders are viewed with what I call ‘Rose-talgia’.
by Space Kidette on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:09 pm
Shows
Washer gave every indication that others in his party were very concerned about the issue.
He did not mention the Malaysian solution specifically but talked about both parties coming together to work out an answer to the problem in order to save lives.
by MTBW on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:09 pm
disturbing news just in re Melinda Taylor – big trouble
by Rex Douglas on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:09 pm