Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Lyne Lady
Saw The Indpendent yesterday and I agree with you. To be fair they usually run a lot of Rob Oakeshott’s press releases but that gets cancelled out by their favouritism when it comes to letters. There seem to be a handful of regular Nats correspondents who get their very lengthy rants printed while the rest of us get ignored.
by leone on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Rex,
Any further details?
by Space Kidette on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Just visited Mal Washer’s website – not a Liberal logo or mention of them til you get to the links.
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:11 pm
Any bets on what will be the “Seat of the Week”?
by docantk on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:11 pm
Lao – did you see Matt Taibbi’s latest article ?
The Scam Wall Street Learned From the Mafia
How America’s biggest banks took part in a nationwide bid-rigging conspiracy – until they were caught on tape
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-scam-wall-street-learned-from-the-mafia-20120620?print=true
by dave on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:11 pm
Lol Gecko @ 6852
by Meguire Bob on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:12 pm
BH
Thanks to the link on the El gygytgyn ice core article. Very interesting.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:13 pm
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/direct_enrolment/
It may well be, GG.
Many, however, will be young people who have never bothered to enrol to vote. One needs to ask, why?
My experience with young people is that they’re pretty disconnected from politics these days and fairly cynical about politicains and the political system generally.
Even as late as the ’80′s punk rock had a political edge to it, but kids’ pop culture these days is a diifferent beast entirely. Lady GaGa sure ain’t Sid Vicious.
My own daughter, 23 years old, has only recently shown any signs of developing any interest in politics at all. Until very recently, I’d get ‘why bother, they’re all the same’ from her. Now things are starting to dawn on her.
I suspect she’s fairly representative.
by smithe on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:13 pm
SMURF YOURSELF YOU SMURFING SMURF HEAD!
The most smurfing annoying phrase on here is +1, because it is evidence of someone being incapable of forming their own opinions.
SO what if someone on here likes to pretend they are a dolphin. Just because you don’t SMURFING do something doesn’t make it SMURFING wrong.
SMURF YOURSELF!!!! You aren’t that important!!!!
It’s VICE VERSA you SMURF BRAIN!
SMURF OFF!
by ShowsOn on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Nauru has capacity for about 800 people. At that point that means if it fills, approximately 1/12 of the residents is an asylum seekers.
Now we have about 23,000,000 people in Australia. If we bore the same proportionate load as Nauru at capacity … we’d be accepting 1.95 million refugees.
Now Nauruans are obviously a lot richer than we are, per capita, have the extensive support services and human infrastructure to support such a large … oh hang on …
Maybe not …
by Fran Barlow on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Yes, I mean as compared to a couple of weeks ago. I do not mean tired as the PM must be from travelling. Abbott’s skin tone, the wrinkly bits on his face , what looks like loss of weight in the face and hair that looks lank, resembles a sudden ageing or huge stress reaction.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:13 pm
poroti @ 6778:
Nice sentiments, badly expressed, as with most patriotic poetry, in my view.
I found the following in an obscure, sticky corner of the web:
Perhaps it is a more up-to-date summation of the nation’s attitudes.
by Ozymandias on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:14 pm
Space Kidette
Any reply from WB yet?
by Joe6pack on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:15 pm
LINK!?
by ShowsOn on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:15 pm
#6841
by Rex Douglas on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:17 pm
ShowsOn
I linked article re Melinda Taylor on previous page
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:18 pm
Well gosh, what a load of nonsense!
For starters, some punk rock music was essentially fascist, is that the sort of ideology you want the kids to be interested in?
And may well you attack Lady Ga Ga, but she did a heap of work in getting Same-Sex marriage legalised in New York state.
by ShowsOn on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:18 pm
Puff
I daresay there is a lot troubling Abbott at oresent
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:19 pm
Slipper-gate-guiltitis… a rare and incurable disease with horrible consequences. Highly contagious.
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:20 pm
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:20 pm
Joe6pack,
Not yet but you can email me on spacekidette@rocketmail.com if that would be easier.
by Space Kidette on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:20 pm
Ruminating on the tendency for many so-called lefties to jump on their high horse over so many things, I thought – SH-Y must be the Black Caviar of high-horse-jumpers.
by lizzie on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:20 pm
Melinda Taylor
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/no-sign-of-early-release-for-australian-lawyer-reports-20120622-20sxi.html
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Lady GaGa might have helped this or that cause celebre, but the fact remains, kids are very largely politically disengaged.
by smithe on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:22 pm
shellbell
Did you read the articles by Mesdames Lowe and Burgess in the Financial Review this morning (on the Ashby/Brough Scandla)? If so, what was your response?
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:22 pm
@6859 FB – small difference – Nauru gets paid to host them and then they leave – we have to pay and then they stay.
by Compact Crank on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:23 pm
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:24 pm
ozymandias
Are you Vic Demised on W.O.P?
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:24 pm
sorry Lowe = Low
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:24 pm
Shows
Not only is Lady Gaga an activist but she can also sing. Have you heard her sing “The Lady is a Tramp” with Tony Bennett? Wonderful!
by MTBW on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:24 pm
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:25 pm
ShowsOn @ 6858
You are WRONG!!!
by bemused on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:26 pm
Yes and no, Ozymandias @6653. Yes, we pedants would have been orthodox syntax in that sentence, it being in the nominative case. “Us pedants” was orthodox self-deprecating irony. I was as you may have noted, reflecting on Skitt’s Law but overfulfilled with my typos.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:26 pm
Is Newman a puppet? Why is he being told what to do?
by ruawake on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:28 pm
Re Melinda Taylor. Late last week there was an interview on ABC radio with a guy in Libya who was trying to get her released. I did not hear it all but he was there when it hit the fan. It seems she does have questions to answer because he spoke of trying to smooth things over when a policewoman dicovered documents/letters taped to her back.
by poroti on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:28 pm
Boerwar – can you give us the gist of the Lowe and Burgess articles in the AFR please.
by BH on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:29 pm
poroti
Bob Carr actually went over this week, and said that he was encouracing the ICC to apologise to the Libyan govt., which would suggest that Ms Taylor has done something deemed wrong by the Libyan govt.
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:31 pm
{for Australia, sometimes via New Zealand}
What was the point again?
by Fran Barlow on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Just received a letter from the ALP candidate for the by-election in Melbourne seeking assistance.
Will see what I can do. The Greens are just too cocky about this one and it would be great to bring them back to reality.
by bemused on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:32 pm
#fakeAbbott# says,
If that bastard Washer keeps sticking his head over the parapet I am going to give him a whack.
We have got this illegitimate, ethically-challenged, lying, shambolic, corrupt and hopelessly dysfunctional Government on the run. The deaths of a couple of hundred would-be illegal border protection criminals, plus a left-over lily-livered Liberal Wet, are not going to stop me and Morro from kicking the Government to death on this one.
Unless Washer shuts up, he is going to lose his pre-selection.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:32 pm
I notice that Abbott is calling the lady senator “gutsy” for resigning.
I suppose that’s a backhanded hit at Slipper and Thomson.
Or is it just his subconscious putting words into his mouth.
by lizzie on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:32 pm
Well picking Lady Ga Ga as your case in point was clearly a bad choice.
by ShowsOn on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:33 pm
BH
I did sometime earlier today, but I have forgotten the number of the post.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:33 pm
The govt should get on the front foot: re asylum seekers and turn a political negative into a positive (and solve the problem too most importantly).
Not sure when the PM is back but she must immediately request a one on meeting with Abbott so they can resolve this issue. Just the two of them, nobody else.
If Abbott agrees and they work out a solution then mr negative looks a bit more postive. Win for him.
Still a win for labor too as huge political problem is defused.
Abbott rejects a meeting then the issue is still not resolved but labor can more forcefully paint him as the negative wrecker who says no to everything. Win for labor, take the higher moral ground etc.
by Henry on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:34 pm
Yeah, Nauru would only be a deterrent if we had an agreement for the asylum seekers to stay there permanently.
The Malaysian option is much better.
Why would anyone get on a leaky boat to go to Australia if they would simply end up in Malaysia?
I still haven’t heard anyone explain it.
by ShowsOn on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:35 pm
Can’t see the Greens winning this one Bemused, despite Deblonays rhetoric.
For one thing, in the absence of a Coalition candidate, coalition voters will simply vote Labor or preference Labor over the Greens candidate
by Mick Collins on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:35 pm
Sheer wishful bloody thinking, I’d say lizzie.
by smithe on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:36 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:36 pm
victoria
I listened to Bob Carr being interviewed on RN early in the week and keeping in mind what the Libyan guy said it sounded to be very much the case. All in perfect diplomatese of course.
by poroti on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:37 pm
dave – thanks for the Taibbi link; I hadn’t seen that. Will have a read!
by Laocoon on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:37 pm