Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
However, if that opinion would come with an extra serve of facts, a side dish of background and just a dash of humour, that would deserve another +1.
Sala kahle
by Ootz on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:38 pm
Mick Collins @ 6895
I think you are probably right and I hope so.
But I often just can’t help myself and end up going to help in by-elections. I am a ‘compulsive campaigner’.
by bemused on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:38 pm
The heart of the matter is that the ICC wants to try Ghaddafi’s son and so the Libyans. Ms Taylor is caught in the crossfire, which so far, thankfully has only been verbal crossfire.
The ICC is suspicious of the Libyans because they have reported themselves as having difficulty gaining enough evidence for a murder case. I would have thought that, in the all the circumstances, this would not have been too difficult.
So the Libyans charged Saif for, wait for it, having an unlicensed camel, and unhygenic fishponds.
Mr Carr’s suggestion would be a de facto resolution of the issue with honour restored. But since Libya is now, as Finns so accurately pointed out, a national with many little Ghaddafi’s, all may not be well.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:38 pm
Here’s a copy of the Kanis (Candidate for Melbourne) lettr that has been discussed.
I just wanted to say hi and let you know we won’t let Ted Baillieu keep dodging the tough questions.
We’ve got plenty for him. About TAFE. About teacher’s pay. About broken promises and lost jobs. But he’s nowhere to be found.
In the upcoming Melbourne by-election, our message to voters is simple.
‘Let’s make this a one term Baillieu government’.
It’s a sentiment many people share. But in an increasingly familiar pattern, the conservatives aren’t standing a candidate.
And the Greens candidate thinks that getting herself elected is ‘making history’.
It is a great honour for me to have been pre-selected as Labor’s candidate for Melbourne. Like you, I know Labor offers the only alternative to conservative governments and we’re working hard to show that alternative to Melbourne.
As you can see by clicking here, we’ve already had some great results on the campaign trail.
We couldn’t do any of this without your support.
Whether it’s making a $3 donation by clicking here, volunteering your time by clicking here or simply liking my facebook page, you can help us as we enter the next phase of the campaign.
Winning the Melbourne by-election won’t get rid of the Baillieu government.
But it’ll be a good start.
Yours sincerely,
Jennifer Kanis
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:39 pm
smithe
by lizzie on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:39 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:39 pm
I thought Washer was (metaphorically?) shown the irons a little while back when he threatened some disturbance to the Abbott-party-view, and he backed off pronto
by Laocoon on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Thanks Boerwar – will check back
by BH on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Thanks Boerwar – will check back
by BH on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:40 pm
SK
The Libyan PM does not militarily control the city, the quite large city of Zintan, in which Ms Taylor is being held prisoner.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:40 pm
I wonder if they will do what they did to Russel Broadbent. He said he was going to vote for some Government legislation, so Abbott arranged to have his vote paired so he couldn’t cross the floor.
by ShowsOn on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:41 pm
http://tinyurl.com/7lozagu (click Google link)
by Leroy on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:42 pm
Laocoon,
It was the same issue. Which is exactly why Washer’s comments need to be taken with a grain of salt.
I want to see what he proposes, not listen to his windy rhetoric.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:44 pm
That’s hilarious Boers.
Unlicensed camel?
Fair dinkum, you couldn’t make this stuff up.
by smithe on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:44 pm
Laocoon
He was indeed. They put the squeeze on him big time and he backed off pronto.
I know Mr Washer and like him. He is, IMHO, far too decent a man for the company he keeps.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:44 pm
Could that be why he is retiring at the next election? Along with Judy Moylan?
by ShowsOn on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Did Mal Washer lose preselection for 2013 or did he resign himself?
by BH on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Boerwar
Things are going swimmingly there at the moment. This news was from yesterday. I see fighters from Zintan are involved as well.
http://af.reuters.com/article/topNews/idAFJOE85K00Q20120621
by poroti on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:48 pm
In its original form the Malaysia proposal was for 800 — about the same as Nauru’s capacity, so to begin to make that claim, it has to be uncapped.
It’s worth noting too that that policy would in practice privilege refugees from Burma over all others. I can well imagine why that might be more palatable to some people bothered by refugees coming to Australia.
Most importantly though it would bed down the principle that people who seek asylum in Australia by recourse to irregular maritime ought to be punished byour regime regardless of the worthiness of their claim. That punishment would extend to children including unaccompanied minors. It would underline the notion that there is some sort of “queue” for refugee places, when there is no formal queue. It would make the Australian government directly responsible for any untoward event arising as a result of their shipment to Malaysia. Finally, and most perversely, it would make Australia, quite literally, a country involved in the involuntary trafficking of human beings. If you are swapping 5 of one class of person for 1 of some other class, what else are you going to call this?
One ought to be astounded at the lengths the government will go to in order to avoid looking “soft on refugees” in the eyes of those who spend way too long listening to radio shock jocks. Sadly, I’m not.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:48 pm
http://www.petermartin.com.au/2012/06/play-with-census-its-live-and.html
by Leroy on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:49 pm
Not sure if this has been posted but it is great news
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/direct_enrolment/
The electoral roll will be much more representative with direct enrolment.
by Benji on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:50 pm
Fran… just out of interest what do you suggest the government do to stop lives being risked on boats?
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:51 pm
#6918
Under the current arrangement people are drowning at sea.
Obviously “Principle” overides any concern about stopping that happening
by Mick Collins on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:51 pm
Lizzie , i think Abbott meant to say GUILTY about the thieving senator . She has form.
by Lord Barry Bonkton on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:52 pm
Yeah – another way of saying she was caught *again* red handed.
by dave on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:52 pm
Gecko,
Goodness man, Greens aren’t in to solutions. Posturing and finger pointing is their game.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:52 pm
smithe @ 6857:
My experience with young people differs from yours, smithe. At a mate’s 50th birthday party recentlyI talked with some friends of his teenage kids, and found a high level of awareness, though I take your point about their cynicism. One on the cusp of his final exams surprised me by saying he wanted to study International Relations at UWA on the way to a career in foreign diplomacy. His classically conservative views on the Asylum Seeker issue were vociferously opposed by several of his mates, who tag-teamed him with informed arguments. Then they all got up and danced.
by Ozymandias on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Around 800,000 new refugees last year.
http://zeenews.india.com/news/world/record-number-of-refugees-last-year-un_782999.html
That would be about 80 per Nauruan per year.
OTOH, the total number of people who were ‘displaced’ is around 140,000,000. That is around 1,400 per Nauruan.
I hope they have those sheds on Nauru fixed up when Mr Abbott makes his phone call.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:54 pm
This current government’s mistake is the same one that Barack Obama made – they became so indoctrinated by the right’s propaganda about how the left had to change to be successful in the modern context (i.e they had to sell out all their values and become right wing, pro-corporate and pro-materialist) that they failed to realise that the times demanded more leftist measures than centrist ones.
Obama should have taken on Wall Street, beaten them and moved on with fixing the US economy. And the ALP should have taken on the miners and the media and all the other scum and beaten them and moved on. But instead they prevaricated and compromised and ended up looking weak and like losers. Losers with no values or integrity.
Obama comes out for gay marriage and because it took him so long and he put out so much BS for so long about “evolving” on the issue people just rolled their eyes and decided he had sniffed the political winds.
Julia Gillard and Labor did themselves so much damage in their first few years (backdowns on the ETS and mining tax and no real media reform) that just about everyone lost respect for them and it appears that no matter what they do they will never get it back.
Labor should have taken on Gina Rinehart and the rest of the scum the minute they first started with their bullshit. They would have beaten them too, back in the early days of the government. And then reality would have changed. Everyone would have accepted it. But since the ALP acts with no conviction nobody has any respect for them.
This is what has now become reality and seems unlikely to change.
by Leisure Suit Larry on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:54 pm
Good piece by Ad Astra over at PS – gives a nice serve to Shanahan for his awful reporting from Los Cabos
http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/post/2012/06/22/As-the-Fourth-Estate-falters-how-should-the-Fifth-Estate-respond.aspx
by BH on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:55 pm
She has an illness… and as much as we’d all appreciate an easy target… this one is not right.
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:56 pm
smithe @ 6857: I wouldnt hold up the Pistols as anything worthwhile political either. It was called “The great rock and roll swindle” for a reason. And the authors of lines like “God save Martin Bormann, and Nazis on the run; They werent being wicked, that was their idea of fun” are not company I would choose.
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:57 pm
When the first couple of boatloads are flown to Malaysia, that logically will be the end of arrivals, as the videos of their departure will be broadcast far and WIDE, it will NEVER get to 800!.
by 1934pc on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:58 pm
poroti
It is not just Libya. The northern bit of Chad has been occupied by Tuareg emanating from Libya.
Thos stats of around 100 dead and 500 wounded are not credible, IMHO. Ratios of 1:5 are very unusual.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 4:59 pm
LSL @ 6928
Good post, IMHO.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Dan Gulberry @ 6877:
Ssshh! Dan. That was the sticky corner to which I was refering..
by Ozymandias on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:00 pm
LSL
I have been agreeing with your recent posts. What is going on?!!!
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:03 pm
Yes, LSL, a good post.
I still think the malaise started with Rudd’s totally unwarranted mea culpa – rather, Garrett maxima culpa – on the Home Insulation Scheme.
by BK on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:04 pm
v
contagious brain worm syndrome.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Boerwar
Must be!!
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:06 pm
BK @ 6397
Agreed.
Rudd certainly made a major mistake there and it is to be hoped he has learned from that and other mistakes.
by bemused on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:07 pm
bw
Hang the b@st@rd!
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:08 pm
BH, OPT
IMHO, the really interesting bit in that Lake El gygytgyn article was that they found a period, in the past two something million years, for which the warming was explained by neither insolation nor GHG gases.
The hunt it on!
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:08 pm
6397 -> 6937
by bemused on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:08 pm
Gecko,
Generally I’d agree. Fisher clearly has an illness and it’s probably best she move on from the scrutiny of political life to a more recovery oriented lifestyle.
However, the bleating of Robb and others about political fixes, bravery of the patient etc is quite nauseating.
How about she apologises for her behaviour and to the police and others for her time wasting and expensive defence. It’s also interesting that her resignation from politics came an hour after the first question about this latest episode.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:09 pm
Mick Collins 6795
_________
Re by-election in Melb
______________
Your assumptions re the Libs prefs are not borne out by the recent Morgan Poll
Only the Libs saved Labor at the last elections in several inner Melb seats…in what were once safe Labor seats…strange times indeed
Without a Lib HT Vote card many Libs will find it galls them to vote Labor…..but …
Time will tell however and we’ll soon see
by deblonay on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:09 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:09 pm
Lyne lady and Leone
One of the advantages of living in Lighthouse is that the Independent does not pollute my lawn and I certainly don’t go out of my way to pick it up. I am just waiting for “Port Paper” to reappear before the next election. There were suggestions that disgraced councillor Nardella was being referred to the electoral commission over its publication at the last state election but as far as I know it didn’t happen.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:09 pm
DG
Hmmm. Two strikes and you are out?
I did think, at the time, that while it was a pity that Mr Gaddafit sr did not get due process, his on-the-spot murder certainly clarified the whole issue of loose threads.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:10 pm
bemused,
It’s pretty obvious that Rudd didn’t learn a thing. That’s why he has managed to exile himself to the back bench.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:10 pm