Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Earlier today @6440 on page 129 I sketched out what might be done.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:11 pm
Leisure Suit Larry
Obama and Rudd also made another “mistake” together. Although not really a mistake as it should have been the right thing to do. Both countries had turfed a very polarising leader, there was much talk of a need for more consensus and a reduction in divisions and partisanship. Obama and Rudd thought that reaching out to the opposition was the right way to go. Sadly as we have seen in both countries the opposition decided instead to go down the path of intransigence and obstruction. Both Rudd and Obama took too long to realise that continued attempts to reach out was pointless and indeed probably encouraged even more feral behaviour in their oppositions.
by poroti on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:11 pm
Where was the Labor candidate in Higgins GG?
Get over it – the major parties rarely if ever run in safe seats that they have absolutely no chance of winning. Fact of life – end of story.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:12 pm
OC
lucky you! guess i will bin it from now on….
by Lyne Lady on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:12 pm
The most boring topic on PB is the endless “Ruddstoration”
by The Finnigans on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:13 pm
Trouble is, no matter how much Labor might “gall” Conservatives, they see the Greens as outright loopy and dangerous
by Mick Collins on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:13 pm
BBS,
I think I’m a victim of mistaken abuse. Are you Will Minson?
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:13 pm
But she was caught, again last sunday.
Amazing, yet again it took 4 days to come out….
Another reason the libs have been very low profile the last 4 days?
by dave on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:13 pm
The sayings of Gung Ho’s Campaign Secretary:
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/women-their-own-worst-enemy-odwyer-20120622-20ryh.html#ixzz1yVIxLXgY
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:14 pm
…Victorian departments and number of jobs to go from each.
Ballieu seems to have taken to heart the saying that if staff morale is poor, the simplest solution is to sack all the unhappy people.
by zoomster on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:15 pm
The most interesting topic on PB is Julia Gillard is still the PM
by The Finnigans on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:15 pm
Deblonay @ 6945
The Liberal vote in the Melbourne by election will be soaked up by some independents – Stephen Mayne for one is pitching for the Lib vote. However, he gives the indication that he will preference the Greens as they are closest to his position on pokies. It will all come down to where these independents send their preferences – if they are to the Greens – the Greens have a good chance of winning the seat.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:16 pm
bw
Yes, at least Saddam got the dignity of a trial, although the outcome was never in doubt.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:17 pm
Finns,
Yes, the love of her adoring people is boundless.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:17 pm
z
A thousand here and a thousand there and pretty soon…
Victoria 3,600
Feds, 4,000
Boffa 15,000
Abbott 10,000 on top of the 4,000
Gung Ho…
So we already know that Australia is going to have 40,000 less public servants*. I do hope that Ozzies don’t whinge about the inevitable crash in service standards.
*assuming (a) that Mr Abbott gets in and (b) that he restricts himself to a mere 10,000 public servants.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:19 pm
GG @ 6949
I don’t want to start an argument, but I think he has and you are confusing issues.
We may yet get a chance to find out.
by bemused on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:19 pm
Is this so he can go to the next election promising extra police?
by ruawake on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:19 pm
Dan
I actually think that Hussein’s trial was important. It reset the base as the rule of law. It starts the new regime off on a proper basis.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:20 pm
GG, the most pleasurable thing to do on PB is to stick up their arkse
by The Finnigans on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:20 pm
Fran, people are dying – that’s inhumane – there’s no dodging this
by Rex Douglas on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:20 pm
#fakeAbbott# says
Good to see Balls kicking a few public servants in the ghoolies. I hate the bastards. The best way to deal with them is to sack them.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:22 pm
OC
I’m sure a clone of the Port Paper will appear. I would think that Nardella is too compromised to run it, but the Nats will find another stooge.
by leone on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Bemused,
Still dreaming your life away.
Keeps you off the streets I suppose.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:23 pm
If anyone knows how many public servant positions are getting the chop in SA, Tas, WA and the NT, I would appreciate knowing.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:24 pm
bw
Agreed. As it was filmed, it had to be done by a strict set of rules/laws. From what we saw of it, it was all above board and set a standard for the “new” nation.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Very much so. This was a massive own goal because it was actually a very successful program. Here I am going to give the regime a freebie. Had I been asked whether the program in the form it was delivered was a good idea I’d have said no. I’d have redesigned it into a much slower and more boutique program that would not have got anywhare near insualting as many houses as were insulated on the timeline they did it and which, per unit installed, would have cost a lot more (but been a lot more politically defensible on their timeline).
Yet with hindsight, it may just have been one of the best value for money programs any Commonwealth government in 20 years has delivered. Not only did it underpin employment amongst the semi/low skilled and in regional areas where it was really neded, but it seems as if the payback in energy savings and avoided upgrades to networks will realise a significant positive return on investment. Credit where it is due — it was a gamble, but this is one thing the regime got spectacularly right.
That’s why it was so disappointing that the then leadership allowed themselves to be lambasted over it and Rudd declared that they’d “get a whacking in the polls” (following the Beattie model of apology). He ran dead as people squealed about “Pink Batts” and likewise when BER came up, also ran dead, allowing it to be called “the BER fiasco”, despite the fact that this too was a great program. Where I teach, the program made a very valuable difference to the quality of our science facilities. I know of no teacher or parent within our community who wasn’t thrilled at what we delivered with Commonwealth money.
Again, employment was underpinned and facilities of fabulous value were rolled out, yet the Murdochracy was allowed to troll the regime speaking of Julia Gillard School Halls and toilet blocks.
Very disappointing.
They diod
by Fran Barlow on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Rex
the important thing to remember, though, is that the Greens are not to blame.
They will continue to make sure that they maintain that position.
by zoomster on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Mr Barnett has cut around 800.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:27 pm
GG @ 6944
Yep they’re a sickening lot… but there is nothing to be gained morally or politically. Best we keep the high ground and let it go through to the keeper in my opinion. Not sure what a public apology would gain – no merit to feeding the smug on our side… and no advantage in further pain on hers.
Your right… Depression is a nasty business and the sooner she tends to herself the better.
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Boerwar
Newman reckons there are 20,000 too many public servants in Qld. He is still counting them though.
by ruawake on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Weatherill: 5,100 public service jobs.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:28 pm
poroti @ 6951
Yes, the reason this has occurred is because Labor and the Democrats have become so indoctrinated with the “you can’t be a party with left wing values any more” meme that they have in some senses attempted to become non-political. They attempt to govern by technocracy. In their addled understanding of reality being “political” is seen as a big turn-off for the voters.
It is a massive mistake because it takes two to tango and the right (in the media and politics) is still very political – irrationally so, given how small the differences between the right and the “left” have now become. But as the right prove, being “ideological” and political is no bar to success.
by Leisure Suit Larry on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:32 pm
Finns GG
YESSSSSS!
by Lyne Lady on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:32 pm
Fran @6975
Yes, you are spot on.
by BK on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:33 pm
GG @ 6972
Well we shall all see what happens in the next few months.
by bemused on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:34 pm
Gecko
Agree!
by MTBW on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Emerson on Capital Hill
Coming up ALP member attacking media
by guytaur on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:35 pm
As someone who has lived through about a thousand restructures and new organisational heads, you start to get a feel for real quick about how they are going to make their mark.
If they march in and start cutting everything, you realise pretty quick it is all about earning bonuses and nothing to do with the future of the organisation.
Those that take their time to suss things out, develop a strategy for the future with the organisation, then re-organise to meet the future, which may mean job losses in one area but usually means gains in others, are the organisations which go from strength to strength.
The slash and burn types see costs everywhere and investments nowhere.
by Space Kidette on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:36 pm
BW
Hockey said on 7.30 he is going to cut 20,000
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2012/s3498465.htm
by Gecko on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:37 pm
Boerwar
The PS job cut numbers in Tasmania are somewhere between 600 and 1000
by blackburnpseph on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:37 pm
bemused,
It’ll be the same as the last few months.
Plenty of predictions of Gillard’s demise which amount to nothing.
Plenty of Ruddrestoristas clutching their beads and repeating the rosary of StKev to no avail.
Boring as batshit. But, that’s life on PB.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:38 pm
SK
Are you referring to Cando in particular?
by victoria on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:38 pm
LSL @ 6928
Just read your post and agree with you.
by MTBW on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:38 pm
The Malaysian proposal had an 800 limit but was clearly capable of flexibility. So the question you have left unanswered remains.
Genuine question. Why would it privilege refugees from Burma over all others? If the answer is that they are overwhelmingly “at the head of the queue” I can well imagine why this would be palatable to everyone.
This is histrionic. Not even Abbott’s Nauru policy is “intended” to punish anyone. There is no doubt that boat arriving ASers are subject to exploitation by smugglers and carry a 4% risk of death by drowning. If the “effect” of Malaysia or Nauru is to deter people from taking that risk, the deterrence cannot be coupled to some nonsense notion of “punishment”. The question whether the effect of the deterrence is justified is a more nuanced debate than you seem, in your simplicity, capable of entertaining.
How, and why does it matter?
How, given Malaysia’s sovereign authority? And so what?
If it makes you feel happy, call it involuntary trafficking of human beings. Applying such a label avoids the relevant debate, which is whether the swap (involuntary trafficking) of refugees is on balance, morally defensible. Just labelling it “involuntary trafficking” does not alter the moral dimension.
Just for once can you try to consider “the moral issues” and not get lost in your perception that what motivates the government is how it looks. It really doesn’t add wait to your admittedly flimsy postion.
by Windhover on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:38 pm
Round up of public service job cuts over the past year or so:
Ballsup, 3,600
Weatheril 5,100
Feds, 4,000
Boffa 15,000
Abbott 10,000 on top of the 4,000 (if he gets in… but I reckon he is more likely to sack an extra 30 to 40- thousand.
Gung Ho 20,000
Giddings 2,300
NT 4,200
Total: 40 – 50,000 public service jobs gone from Australia in the space of a couple of years.
The small government extreme libertarians are winning here, folks. Does it matter?
I do hope the public enjoys the consequential deterioration in service standards, the delays, the potholes, the farkin’ awful service, and the sheer aggravation of trying to access the services of over-worked, under-paid and over-harrassed front line staff.
The public certainly can’t whinge about what they ain’t paying for, that’s for sure.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:38 pm
SK
You have just described the political divide between progressives and Tories.
by guytaur on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:39 pm
more treasonous leaking to the media
by Rex Douglas on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:39 pm
victoria,
It seems it’s in the LNP DNA right across the board.
by Space Kidette on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:41 pm
Gecko
Thank you for your Mr Hockey correction.
That brings the expected total of public servant positions destroyed by governments of all colours to around 60,000 by the end of 2014, assuming Mr Abbott succeeds in becoming Dear Leader No 1.
That is more than work in the steel industry. That is more than work in the aluminium industry. That is more than work in the gold industry. That is more than…
Where are the politicians screaming about job losses, about working families bashed, about lives destroyed, about why worry about COL when you don’t have a job…
Farkin’ hypocrites.
by Boerwar on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:42 pm
GG @ 6990
With so much confidence you shouldn’t be worried then.
by bemused on Jun 22, 2012 at 5:43 pm