Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Essential essentially unchanged. Labor vote up one point but all else remains the same.
by davidwh on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:07 pm
OPT,
You’re an idiot.
by Jake on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:10 pm
Although the Coalition is more trusted than Labor on most important issues. That is probably where the problem with the polls lies.
by davidwh on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:11 pm
According to Essential, the only issue the ALP are winning on is IR.
The Coalition are even ahead on health and education for God’s sake
by spur212 on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:11 pm
To each his own, bemused, to each his own.
by Ian on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Net trust:
Rudd -19
Turnbull -21
Abbott -34
Gillard -41
by spur212 on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:13 pm
@LatikaQT: #scarecampaign #senateqt
@LatikaQT: First question from Abetz to Wong on climate change. ‘How much the carbon tax will reduce emissions in it’s first 3 years?’ #senateqt
@LatikaQT: Wong ‘Govt’s position is the same as the Oppn – 5% reduction by 2020 of 2000 levels.’ #senateqt
@LatikaQT: Wong ‘I’ll see if I can assist the cackling Senator Abetz with that information in the near future.’ #senateqt
@LatikaQT: Abetz – well given you can’t say, will it reduce emissions by any amount in that time frame? #senateqt
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:15 pm
So Labor support still firm, hmmm, I still think a small panic swing away from Labor before 1/7 but maybe not.
by political animal on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Labor should modify its mantra to say “There is no better economy in the developed world DESPITE Mr Abbott’s disgraceful efforts to sabotage it”.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:17 pm
lol, what a disappointment. A few more months of Labor and Work Choice will become a Lib positive again.
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Labor voters:
58% have a lot or some trust in Julia Gillard.
Same for Kevin Rudd.
L/NP voters don’t trust Turnbull
by spur212 on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:18 pm
political animal that’s like saying your team is on top because they have score that last two goals even though they are still 60 points in arrears. Mind you it is still only the third quarter.
by davidwh on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Was that a swan hissy fit lol……….
Thats a tony Abbott moment of the finest quality…… Swan cant answer the question.
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Abbotts usual dud Carbon Tax question kicks off a noisy QT.
by ruawake on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:19 pm
@LatikaQT: Dixer to Evans re the resilient Australian economy. #senateQT
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Essential:
http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/06/18/essential-we-trust-the-leaders-in-waiting-more-than-the-leaders/
by ShowsOn on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:20 pm
BK,
You should tweet that!
by Space Kidette on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:21 pm
As long as Liberals are coming on here trying to tell the AP to change leaders. it will be the last thing I will support
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:21 pm
ALP
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Nope, it’s half time in the 1970 Grand Final and the Scum are 40 points up.
Remember that ?
Cruising to premiership glory, then what happened ?
by Mick Collins on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:21 pm
According to Essential, most voters think the media is biased against Labor and unions and biased in favour of Liberal and business.
by ShowsOn on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:22 pm
Guytaur
A while back you waxed lyrical about how the polls would narrow
Did not happen in Qld or NSW.
Voters are behaving oddly – very volatile. Could actually go the other way as in Qld
by daretotread on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:23 pm
Showy I don’t think you are taking your situation seriously enough.
Hang in there because we Libs need your ongoing support.
by davidwh on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:23 pm
Mick did Carlton win in 1970?
by davidwh on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:24 pm
You couldn’t get a stronger series of polls showing that gillard and labor under gillard wont be elected. Whether it is PV, 2PP, trust, personality, likeability it doesn’t matter. The election result is set in concrete (reinforced withy steel mesh). There is no Godwin Grech second wind, there is learning to love Julia, there is no July 1 turnaround.
The choice for the ALP is Rudd or Abbott.
Over to caucus.
by bluegreen on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:25 pm
@LatikaQT: Brandis to Wong on #Fairfax job cuts asks if the Minister accepts they are the result of the carbon tax… #senateQT
@LatikaQT: ‘have you ever heard of the internet?’asks a Labor Senator. #SenateQT
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Re Essential:
It’s the trend!
by Lynchpin on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:25 pm
George Brandis you are an Idiot.
Is idiocy a disease ?
It certainly seem prelevant within the COALition
by Mick Collins on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Management of the economy: ALP 26, L/NP 44
Political Leadership: ALP 21, L/NP 37
Controlling Interest Rates: ALP 22 L/NP 40
by spur212 on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:26 pm
Swanny’s using lots of snake analogies. Watch out Sophie!
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:26 pm
So none of them are trusted.
by Lynchpin on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:26 pm
Stop bossing people around.
I agree that since you are a Lib you need all the help you can get.
by ShowsOn on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:27 pm
The Essential and the Galaxy are disappointing.
I would have preferred some movement away from Mr Abbott of Knockers and Wreckers Pary to Ms Gillard and the Creators and Builders Party.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:27 pm
@LatikaQT: Penny Wong – that’s a long bow to draw. #Fairfax #SenateQT
@LatikaQT: Brandis with supp – Why you making Fairfax conditions worse with carbon tax? #SenateQT
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:27 pm
@LatikaQT: ‘It’s the internet stupid,’ cries a Labor Senator. #SenateQT
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Nice Puff.
I also fully support Gillard leading Labor to the next election. She is the best person for the Job
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Just checked Google and Carlton did in fact win with Jessa kicking the final goal. Mick sorry to be the bearer of bad tidings but the PM is no Jessa and Labor is no Carlton.
by davidwh on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:28 pm
#fakesophie#
Hisses at Mr Swan for denigrating serpents.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:28 pm
According to Essential:
by Pegasus on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:28 pm
David WH
Yep, ideed they did.
It was the GF where Barrasi in his half time adress, implored his young blue baggers to “HAND PASS HAND PASS HAND PASSS”
The one where ” JEZZALINKO!!!!, YOU BEAUTY !!!” was imortalised for all time.
As well as that mark.
by Mick Collins on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:29 pm
@LatikaQT: And after trying to link #Fairfax job losses to the carbon price, Brandis’ final supp is about the carbon tax lie. #SenateQT
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:29 pm
WOW, now thats crazy!.
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Pegasus
It is a pity the Greens have power only at the margins and it is left to the mainstream parties to actually carry out environmental programs – or not, as the case may be.
by Boerwar on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:30 pm
I’ll pay that one Showy
by davidwh on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:30 pm
DDT
Nice try. Not going to wash. Qld government was old tired and toxic to voters.
As was NSW one.
Not the case with Federal Labor.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:30 pm
@LatikaQT: Ludlam asks Conroy when he’ll release Govt’s reply to the Convergence Review. #SenateQT
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Nup, The PM is the mighty Kevin Barltlett and the ALP are the mighty Tigers
by Mick Collins on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Why do polsters ,
Continualy , ask about the ruddv gillard
Question as some one on theiir books to poll i am going to ask them that question.
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:31 pm
@LatikaQT: Conroy shouting. Not sure why. Seemed a sober enough question. #SenateQT
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Dont u work rummel
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:32 pm