Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has told a Coalition party meeting he has no illusions about how hard it will be to win the next election after today’s Newspoll, which gave Labor a small bounce.
Telling colleagues their job would not be over until the election was won, Mr Abbott observed: “Gillard won’t lie down and die, and where there’s life, there’s fight.”
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/gillard-wont-lie-down-and-die-says-abbott-20120529-1zfxj.html#ixzz1yWczcI70
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:39 pm
But enough, it’s bed time.
(I know! Collective sigh of relief…but you know how it is, these things keep going round and round in your head – I apologise!)
by zoomster on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:39 pm
Mm
Nah. You not boring. I have made more comments on how Rudd will not make. Leadership comeback than you.
All the Ruddstoration forces have going for them is the polling. Polling of the past till now.
Rudd does not have Caucus. Rudd does not work wih the Greens. That means Rudd forces have to convince Cauus that changing Leaders and going straight for an election is a good strategy.
by guytaur on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:39 pm
Does anyone else find middle man’s posts as interesting and thought provoking as I do?
I thought that post of your was spot on mm just not controversial enough to enrage the crowd.
by davidwh on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Well actually, back in the real world, Rudd is basically the most popular Labor MP in the country.
by ShowsOn on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:40 pm
….and you haven’t worked out there is nothing Abbott wants more than to face Gillard in the polls?
Man-up GG
He is wiping the electoral floor with her at the moment, of course he doesn’t want that paradigm to change!
He probably realises when Gillard goes, he is finished too!
by Mod Lib on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:41 pm
Enjoy your fruitless discussion
by my say on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:41 pm
ML,
Sure low inflation, low unemployment, low interest rates, strong growth and very modest debt.
I really can’t work out where it went all wrong for Labor.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:41 pm
No ones as boring as Me,
Except maybe for David WH
by Mick Collins on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:42 pm
i purposely don’t do controversial. well not on here. it’s a crowded field that one.
by middle man on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:42 pm
Shows
Means Sweet FA if Caucus vote otherwise.
by guytaur on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:42 pm
Showsy,
His popularity was so pronounced that the Qld ALP were nearly wiped out after his popular interventions.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Let me give you a clue: Gillard advising Rudd to chicken out on the CPRS proving no conviction
by Mod Lib on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Thats not support for the party leader.
Any rudd return will destroy labor and the tories will laugh their butts off at Labors situation.
But many in Labor want that.
They may well get what they want and it will be ashes in their mouths.
by dave on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Mick you’re more boring than me so there
by davidwh on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:44 pm
ed Friday, June 22, 2012 at 10:32 pm | Permalink
please ignore my post @ 7377. i broke my own rule about getting involved in that conversation.
not that anyone here ever really comments on my posts… i must be a bit boring …
Middle man i read yourposts all the time
by my say on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Rudd. Past it, run his race, schoolboy. Move on please
by Rossmore on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:45 pm
i think polling on potential leaders is worthless to be honest. it all changes once you are the one carrying the can. and thats just a general observation – not a partisan comment.
if rudd or turnbull return, the media have a stack of stuff in the archives to dredge up. but while they aren’t leaders they look much better. its not as simple as the pollsters and opinion writers make it out to be.
by middle man on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:46 pm
ML
That could be a lie. We only have anonymous media reports that Gillard gave any such advice. Sources whose interest was in making Gillard look as bad as possible. So do not be so free with unproven information.
by guytaur on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Boerwar, there are heaps of theories; best summarised as there are known knowns (datable evidence, diatoms etc), known unknowns (stuff we’re not sure about, like orbital eccentric cycles), unknown knowns (what happened, like reefs & surface temps) and unknown unknowns.
I read this paper online when we were in UK – took me ages to translate the symbols into words & the lot into intelligible English. What interested me (when I figured them out) were the roles of various carbon forms in various places – there were rather glancing references to it in Sunday’s “How to grow a planet”, though there was a well-deserved greater concentration on the very much earlier “extinction event” caused by atmospheric CO2 depletion as marine plant life became established, then went berserk. Gave me a few good giggles at some of the more rabid Aussie Greens. Hello! Deplete atmospheric CO2 levels too drastically, and air breathers will die, as surface plants did when CO2 levels could no longer sustain them, and oxygen levels in the air dropped!
Here’s the abstract – you’ll see what I mean about my need to “translate” Potential origins of 400–500 kyr periodicities in the ocean carbon cycle: A box model approach
Ie, some of our findings fitted the known knowns, but critical parts didn’t. We pushed the theory enough for publication, and found a discrepancy, investigating which should give us a few more publication “brownie points” – every academic’s dream
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:46 pm
mm I have posted what I thought were pretty boring comments at times only to see things get heated. I blame the sun spots.
by davidwh on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:46 pm
MM
Me neither,
Tey just go round and round
We do loke puff also
Straight talking
Not i dustral diareah
by my say on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Like puff straight talki g
by my say on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:47 pm
HAHAHAHAHA
Yep that’s it, just polling showing the Rudd is more popular than Gillard and Abbott, and polling that shows that Labor has been WAY, WAY behind for like 16 months!
by ShowsOn on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:47 pm
I don’t know if any of you have twigged to it, but there’s some talk about that Gillard might make way for Rudd some time this year. It’s a bit of a sleeper issue, but I wonder what you all think of it?
by Aguirre on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:47 pm
I don’t accept you are taking a more realistic view of anything.
In fact you are doing much harm.
But nothing anyone says will stop you.
by dave on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:48 pm
Mod Lib,
You used to be a commentator with something to say.
Now it’s all piffle from you.
Just another pathetic waste of space Lib willing to sacrifice any principle if it is likely to lead to power.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:48 pm
my say
I was not being insulting. I have previously stated references to her weight, ear lobes, big backside, her hair, her clothes etc were completely out of order as we all know that a male PM would never face that criticism.
You say I always seem to turn up this time of night. Correct. I work full time as a registered nurse and do shift work, and I don’t have the advantage of sitting on the computer 24/7 reading PB posts.
Your reference to me having been to a Griffith branch meeting is out of order. I couldn’t get to my branch meeting on Monday evening as I was working.
I wish you would stop being so sensitive to the mildest of criticism.
Also, check out what you had to say when Julia knifed Rudd, and what you thought of it all, and I think you said you’d never vote Labor again.
So, come on, be reasonable, will you?
by feeney on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:48 pm
anyway…. third and final wallabies v wales test tomorrow afternoon. can’t wait!
(thats a reference to rugby for those south and west of canberra).
by middle man on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:48 pm
dave @ 7414
Ridiculous assertion without a shred of evidence.
Even more ridiculous. ALP members may have differences of opinion over leadership, but none want Abbott PM. Unless you are the exception?
I am sure all ALP members want Labor to win the 2013 election.
by bemused on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:49 pm
Labor has the CULT OF THE PARTY, rather than the CULT OF THE LEADER.
They won’t do what the Coalition did in 2007 when they let Howard take them head long into an electoral wipe out.
There is absolutely no way that Labor will stick with a leader who is consistently stuck in the mid 40s on the 2pp vote in polls. Whether that means a change in one month or 5 months doesn’t matter, but Labor simply won’t go into an election year without at least a few polls showing both parties at least statistically tied.
by ShowsOn on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Im alive!
by rummel on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Mm
I agree with u 100 percent
We would be laughing stock
by my say on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Shows on, your relentless obsession with today’s polls is sad. Polls change, or haven’t you noticed. Underdogs can become favorites as quickly as favorites become also runs. Psephological research demonstrates this time and time again.
by Rossmore on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Alive but are u converted
by my say on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:51 pm
mm 7418 is a perfectly logical opinion on the current situation and why we are more likely to go to the next election with Gillard v Rudd than any of the other alternatives. Personally I prefer Turnbull by a fair margin but am resigned to Abbott being there on election day.
by davidwh on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Story on LL on HIV and Homophobia in the US South.
by guytaur on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:51 pm
rummel,
Beats all the alternatives, I suppose.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Aguirre. Acrimony is not needed. So if the caucus can manufacture a smooth hand over to a new leader (Rudd or not) that unifies the party… what’s not to like.
But I just dont have the inclination to spend time wondering who that might be and how it might transpire.
by middle man on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:52 pm
WHAT!? You are blaming the QLD election result on RUDD!?
You’ve LOST IT! Or maybe you NEVER HAD IT!
In 2007, Rudd helped Labor gets its best vote in QLD since WWII! In fact it was slightly over 50% 2pp! Compared to Labor under Gillard which under recent polling isn’t even on 40% of the 2pp!
by ShowsOn on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Still the same….it’s just you are in denial, that is what has changed
by Mod Lib on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:53 pm
davidwh,
I’ll take any wager you like that it won’t be Gillard v Rudd at the next Federal election.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Aguirre
I’d give it till October, and if the polls havent shifted then it will be odds on
But that also depends on Ashby Gate MOAR I’d suspect
by Mick Collins on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Shows
If polls do not change in that time frame yes the party may change leaders. If they do I ill put my money on Albo. He has the respect of the Gillrd and Rudd factions over his integrity in the last leadership spill.
by guytaur on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:54 pm
rummel,
Remind me not to order the LARGE banquet next time.
by This little black duck on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Completely impossible to explain, after everything that was said in Feb.
The ALP has no Plan B, that is the problem.
by Mod Lib on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:55 pm
It does indeed. I had a great dinner tonight, thank you scorpio and ducky.
by rummel on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:55 pm
the Ashby thing is going to have to be very juicy to jolt the polls. and if it does jolt them sufficiently…. call the election!
by middle man on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Showsy,
You’re the one making the case for Rudd’s universal popularity.
All I’ve done is point out a very recent case where his popularity was such that it nearly drove Queensland Labor to extinction.
Your relying on polls aren’t you.
Doesn’t the Queensland result tell you that the reality is that Kev’s a dud as an electoral proposition.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:55 pm
This is clearly a joke, because if you go back over the last 16 months the polls HAVEN’T really changed much at all!!! Labor has been behind in every one, with the primary vote in the high 20s or low 30s, and the 2pp stuck in the mid 40s!
I agree with you that polls usually bounce a round a bit, but the polls really haven’t changed much over the last year, they show Labor heading for a wipe out.
WISHFUL THINKING!!!!!
The polls DO NOT over the last year DO NOT show a high degree of fluctuation, they show a high level of consistency with Labor way behind.
by ShowsOn on Jun 22, 2012 at 10:56 pm