Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Wow Essential is trying to make some kind of comment on questions with 26% -40% of people in the don’t know column?
Surely this just proves there is an election to win and people still have an open mind?
by ruawake on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:32 pm
@LatikaQT: Conroy talking about the effects of the internet on media jobs. Now gets to the question of the Convergence Review. #SenateQT
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Energy prices are on the rise, but it’s the cost of poles and wires – not a carbon tax:
http://www2.acfonline.org.au/category/blog/electricity-charges-our-bills
by Pegasus on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Thanks for the retweet Kidette.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Brandis has obviously escaped from somewhere strange. He’s blaming Fairfax sackings, etc on the carbon tax!! Where’s the no for the ACCC!
by BH on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:32 pm
@LatikaQT: Conroy says Govt considering the review but not expecting to accelerate the Govt’s answer as a result of #Fairfax announcement. #SenateQT
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:33 pm
The ACCC “back of the axe” is well and truly on display today.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:33 pm
Aanna burke drives me to destraction
Mr combet should of been allowed to finish
It would of been no more than 5 words
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Space Kiddette@697
Having just had to retire due to ongoing health problems I’m giving it some thought. The scope that this blog gives one is huge. Some working titles;
Bemused or befuddled?…….the secrets of pedantric bloggery!!
Vast arid emptiness…..what happens when shows on shows up.
Rummelogic……converting the convoluted into the confected in order to appease the confused.
Nail it down before the bastards nick it…………….davidwhs’ guide to cando and clives Qld.
and of course I could go on…..but all in fun.
by Ian on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Once again the real issue is that the polls are not shifting
Stubbornly stuck at 44%. Even with narrowing a 47/53 is looking to be the best outcome.
It is now 14-15 months until the election to get 50% Labor needs to pick up just about 0.5% per month.
HOW!!!!!!!!
by daretotread on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:34 pm
@LatikaQT: Are you worried Gina Rinehart is seeking editorial control of #fairfax? Conroy – I support Turnbull’s comments. #SenateQT
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:34 pm
There already is one. It’s called the internet.
It must never be owned by any government or corporation.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:35 pm
ddt
Idiot. Look at the Do not know column.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:35 pm
They could pick it all up in a weekend if they wanted to.
by bluegreen on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Monday, June 18, 2012 at 2:32 pm | Permalink
@LatikaQT: Conroy talking about the effects of the internet on media jobs. Now gets to the question of the Convergence Review. #SenateQT
. Sounds better than hor
Tooday
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Nah – the PM is the fantabulous Leo Barry taking the high mark on the bell and the ALP is the sensational Swannies!
Good dorothy dixer from Oakey to Albo re Pac Highway funding
by BH on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Labor has a lot to learn from Burke and Wills. I wonder what will be Gillard’s ‘dig tree’
by bluegreen on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:37 pm
How the parliamentary inquiry into ME bills is being reported:
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/greens-want-conscience-vote-on-gay-marriage-20120618-20j5g.html
by Pegasus on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Having just had to retire due to ongoing health proble,
Ian
I am sorry to hear about your health.
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:38 pm
My Say
Not today. I am looking after a sick 4 year old while logged into work on the other lap top.
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:38 pm
And the biggest increases are in the states that still own their distribution networks – QLD and NSW.
by ShowsOn on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:38 pm
Ian – I can’t wait to read it all. Go for it mate and I hope your health improves with a peaceful retirement.
by BH on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:38 pm
or you could look at the primary vote column or you could look at the trust column or you could look at how the queensland and NSW elections went compared with the lead-in polling {they were worse}
by bluegreen on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:38 pm
Guytaur
Dream on
Anna Bligh was more popular than Gillard by a country mile and Cando was nearly as mad as the Rabbit
by daretotread on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:39 pm
Ian
Ah, memories. I remember the “Generator” (often referred to as the Vibrator
) was one of the best rooms in the country for live music.
RIP Morley Park Hotel.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:39 pm
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:39 pm
sorry guys gotta go someone else will have to relay senate proceedings.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:40 pm
It’s going to be great sport seeing the ACCC work over those businesses trying to use the “carbon tax” as a reason to put prices up.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:42 pm
my say
As someone said much earlier – the pollsters keep including Rudd and Turnbull because it gives the journos the potential to make up stories (key words “make up”).
by lizzie on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Truzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Guytaur
Look at the NO Trust column. Abbott and Gillard have awful scores
by daretotread on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/greens-want-conscience-vote-on-gay-marriage-20120618-20j5g.html#ixzz1y7JaEKT7
Wrong. It should be Liberal Policy to let individual chose.
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:44 pm
I am quite upset about the demise of Fairfax. There won’t be anything left once Gina gets her hands on it..
About pay walls..are we getting to the stage where news can only be accessed by the rich? Is news now a privilege? Do pay walls entrench a class divide? The cost may be small now, but in the future it is likely to increase…which will raise these sort of questions…
Of course we have the ABC, but many countries don’t have a national news broadcaster.. However, saying we have the ABC is not much of a comfort nowadays is it?
by liyana on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Darn it! Combet has just said that I can’t report the Oppn to the ACCC for false and misleading statements about carbon pricing. It has for businesses only
by BH on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:44 pm
DTR Newman is more like a goat than a rabbit. He will just keep butting away until he gets what he wants.
by davidwh on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Is Brandis the full quid?
by lizzie on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Tanya P after Combet destroyed Truzzzzzzzzzzzzz. “Well done Warren!”
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:46 pm
BK,
My pleasure!
Ian,
Not sure what ails you, but it certainly hasn’t affected that sharp mind! Here’s to a fast recovery.
by Space Kidette on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Let’s face it, the last two years have been like a permanent election campaign. The public are sick of politics full stop, they have turned off, they hate everyone. Brains will not be switched on again until the next real election campaign starts.
by deflationite on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:47 pm
No. He’s an SC. He is above criticism.
Just ask him.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:47 pm
bk
Stupid C***?
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:49 pm
William, could you share my email address with Finns please?
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:49 pm
BOATS!!
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:50 pm
BOATS!
by dooby on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:50 pm
Dig Tree
The tree at the depôt camp that Brahe blazed to mark the location of the buried supplies on the banks of Bullah Bullah Waterhole on Cooper Creek in South West Queensland is a coolibah, (Eucalyptus coolibah formerly Eucalyptus microtheca) estimated to be around 250 years old. Initially the tree was known as “Brahe’s Tree” or the “Depôt Tree” and the tree under which Burke died attracted most attention and interest. As a result of the blaze on the tree and the subsequent popularity of the book “Dig” written in 1935 by Frank Clune, the tree became known as the “Dig Tree”. There are three separate blazes on the tree; the camp number, a date blaze and the instruction to dig. Two of the blazes have grown closed and only the camp number blaze remains visible today.
Whats your dislike of ms gillard blue green. Can i ask
Why your reference to the dig tree.’
her written history will be more than your option
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:50 pm
I see why Gillard stopped her JWH “who do you trust” Spin that was getting a flog a few weeks back.
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:51 pm
Stop the detention centres
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:51 pm
lizzie I have to admit to being in awe of the chutzpah of the Oppn. Abbott has the media backing him up on Roxon, Albo and Emmo doing the wrong thing by confirming the Govt’s defence against Ashby/Slipper. Abbott stops his Party from having conscience vote and the MSM accepts that and doesn’t confront him, Hunt lies blatantly about carbon pricing and Brandis waffles about everything and the media report it faithfully.
It’s all done full face to camera and with no backing down and they get away with it.
If only Labor had that acceptance the Oppn would be in a cave.
by BH on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:52 pm
Sounds like a pretty tame question time. Any mention of Ashby by the Govt?
by Lynchpin on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:52 pm
Here come Burke on the pairing refusal I would think.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:52 pm