Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
BK
Snap on one at exact time
by Schnappi on Jun 23, 2012 at 6:44 am
A good example of the power of the media. And lack of honest reporting and analysis.
http://www.americablog.com/2012/06/most-republicans-still-believe-iraq-had.html
by BK on Jun 23, 2012 at 6:51 am
And a blood boiler from Philadelphia.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/22/philadelphia-priest-trial_n_1619355.html
by BK on Jun 23, 2012 at 6:55 am
morning bludgers
looks as though matthew franklin is on the job at oz
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/james-ashby-case-against-peter-slipper-built-on-trail-of-emails/story-fndckad0-1226405995227
by Lyne Lady on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:00 am
and a very good article on noddy abbott from IA
http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/why-do-people-believe-the-abbott/
by Lyne Lady on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:03 am
It’s worth doing the Google trick on this link to Franklin’s OO article on the Ashby case.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/james-ashby-case-against-peter-slipper-built-on-trail-of-emails/story-fndckad0-1226405995227
by BK on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:06 am
by Space Kidette on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:11 am
by Space Kidette on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:18 am
by Space Kidette on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:20 am
This is the gist of the Franklin’s story
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:27 am
by Fran Barlow on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:31 am
That’s a little on the petty side Fran.
Best of luck to KK; I have mixed feelings about her time in NSW parliament – a good performer, and I think she made a better premier than Carr or Iemma tbh, but she was certainly not removed enough from the problems of the NSW ALP to be really effective, and of course having to sack ministers or accept their resignations every other week wasn’t a happy place to be.
by Jackol on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:36 am
Good morning Bludgers brave and true!
The sun is up.
The birds are singing.
Labor is still in government.
Julia Gillard is still Prime Minister.
Those rampaging, world-beating BISONs are the cause of much G-20 envy. Maybe the PM shouldn’t have flashed them around.
Oooerr. Is flashing your BISONs an arrestable offence?
MOAR to come on Jackson and Ashby.
Looking forward to the impending end of Whyalla on July 1. I’m glad it’s on a weekend. I think I might go for a drive and take some photos mid-demise.
Hahahahahaha! I’ve just realised that Abbott is Noddy AND Big Ears
by Danny Lewis on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:45 am
Danny,
I want whatever it is you’re having!
by Space Kidette on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:48 am
by Space Kidette on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:48 am
Who cares Lewis, the emails were sent to you and received from you, no hiding behind sources on this one.
by ruawake on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:52 am
She was a “steady-as-she-goes” leader. She maintained the popularity of the ALP roughly as it was when she was inserted to replace the last guy doing about the same thing who replaced the guy who had wrecked the joint by backing privitisation when even many Liberal voters didn’t want it.
Her one chance — her only chance — was to take a risk and do something different.
Her last piece in The Drum, where she advised Gillard to abandon carbon pricing showed she’d learned not a thing from her time in politics.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:54 am
oops … {privatisation} …
by Fran Barlow on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:55 am
When she is found guilty I want to see an ultra close up picture of Brooks’ on the front of The Guardian with the headline
IS THIS THE FACE OF EVIL?
in good ol’s News Of The World fashion.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:56 am
Kidette: I’m high on life!
Rua: I suspect a refusal to comply with the Court’s directions will just make the Commonwealth’s case even easier. They will, effectively, be able to run their arguments with very little resistance, especially if Ashby himself can’t provide an acceptable rebuttal.
And – I’m no lawyer – but wouldn’t there be some sort of rule regarding the paper prosecuting its case in print when it is refusing to front the Court? Contempt?
by Danny Lewis on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:57 am
Tom: LOL! Or give her a Pinocchio nose and brand her LIAR!
by Danny Lewis on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:59 am
Morning All
Aren’t the similarities with the UK amazing – we have Steve Lewis seemingly involved in creating the news rather than just reporting it and at the same time his boss trying to clinch a deal to buy more of the biggest pay tv provider.
Wow – July 23 will be riveting – wouldn’t it be great to see a Murdoch journalist locked up, might scare the rest of them into focusing on what their job should be.
And what’s this rubbish about protecting sources, we all know the source already ffs
Fascinating times ahead but who will report on it???
Looks to be plenty of movement on asylum seekers from both major parties – see what comes from it I guess. I hope the Greens maintain their position – longer term and bigger picture – they are backing the right horse.
Speaking of horses – Black Caviar tonight, well tomorrow morning – GO YOU GOOD THING
Swannies top of the table again
by womble on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:02 am
Way to go! Danny
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:02 am
more drownings?
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:04 am
Is Andrew Probyn the best MSM political journalist in Australia?
To do anything else is ugly political cynicism and against the national interest.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/opinion/post/-/blog/14018597/asylum-policy-stand-off-costing-lives/
by CO on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:07 am
Tom Hawkins – if the drownings aren’t here they’ll be somewhere else – anyone that thinks that moving the problem off-shore will solve it are kidding themselves
The government and opposition are looking for political solutions not bigger picture ones
by womble on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:08 am
womble @ 7675
Not so sure about that given that the vast majority of the people concerned travel by plane to Indonesia or Malaysia.
by CO on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:18 am
The MOAR tsunami of Ashby/Brough/Slipper has started to ripple – http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CD4QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnational-affairs%2Fin-depth%2Fjames-ashby-case-against-peter-slipper-built-on-trail-of-emails%2Fstory-fndckad0-1226405995227&ei=4-7kT4TXNuyNmQWmnYSTCw&usg=AFQjCNEECqLZlHLN4TKZebMiEzzTzRfafA
by The Finnigans on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:24 am
It is against the Crime Act to prevent or interfere an elected MP performing his/her duties, let alone the HOR Speaker http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CD4QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fnational-affairs%2Fin-depth%2Fjames-ashby-case-against-peter-slipper-built-on-trail-of-emails%2Fstory-fndckad0-1226405995227&ei=4-7kT4TXNuyNmQWmnYSTCw&usg=AFQjCNEECqLZlHLN4TKZebMiEzzTzRfafA
by The Finnigans on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:28 am
Why do People believe Tony Abbott? – http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/why-do-people-believe-the-abbott/ – because human frailties – it’s easier to believe lies than hear the truth
by The Finnigans on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:31 am
Not if the boats don’t leave for Christmas Island in the first place. The Malaysian solution will see to that AND result in a higher intake of refugees AND result in a far greater number of people who can’t afford to pay a smuggler getting preference by default
That will be a win – win – win
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:31 am
Morning all.
Been incredibly busy the last few days, but managed to catch on the news that Mary Jo is resigning because she’s reportedly been caught shoplifting again.
They should’ve let her go after she was found guilty.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:34 am
morning bludgers
Thanks BK and others for the links.
Tobe
If you are about. Dont let some put you off from posting comments.
Now to the question of moar.
Let me get this straight. Ashby is alleged to have provided Brough with “copies” of Slipper’s diary. Really? What is dog’s name was Brough thinking? This man is a buffoon
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:35 am
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/lives-could-have-been-saved-says-refugee-advocate-20120622-20tjg.html#ixzz1yZ3GDxZ3
So we get one day’s grace from playing politics over the deaths.
These people shit me.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:37 am
Danny, like this?
https://encrypted-tbn1.google.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQuISak0OCeFmxNn3AMSK1IeDG9OOsghC-DV-GWrBBI4lbEir_a
by The Finnigans on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:37 am
Also catching up on the Emma Alberici interview with Jason Clare on LL last night.
It appears with have their ABC with copies of faxes from the Maritime Safety mob re boat in distress, and Emma tries for a gotcha with the timeline. Subsquently turns out that the ABC made a mistake in interpreting universal time for Australian time. What the frack is the ABC doing. It has lost all credibiility. Heads should roll. There has been a tragedy at sea, and the ABC try to get a gotcha on the govt. this is atrocious
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:38 am
Vic, the MOAR tsunami is now rippling and Phil Coorey was also alluding to something in the pipeline. Bring It ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by The Finnigans on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:38 am
Good Morning everybody.
Just thought I’d start the day by contributing this humorous aside about Abbott by Glenn Dyer & Bernard Keane from yesterday’s Crikey, in case you haven’t read it. It is from a story about the global economy. Enjoy!
by C@tmomma on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:40 am
Would Slipper’s diary entries be deemed Cwlth property in the way emails are?
Is so, and if Ashby was therefore releasing Cwlth material without appropriate authority, that is serious.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:41 am
The finns
I posted Coorey’s twitter comments last night re alluding to moar. But I thought that the moar he was meaning was re Kjackson?
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:42 am
confessions
And releasing them to a journo and Slipper’s nemesis Brough!! If this is accurate, Brough is doomed
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:43 am
Indeed it was. Not that any of it was new news, given rumours circulating (many of which it confirmed).
Given the author, I assume that NewsLtd and its journos have heard another, deeper bell joining the set that has tolled since the Millie Downer exposee hit UK news; recognised that it was ringing the tocsin, and MF and his paper are trying to fill their ears with wax, so they do not have to ask themselves for whom that bell tolls.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:47 am
Could anyone explain to me why Jason Clare wouldn’t have known that the time referred to in the fax was of a different time zone.
That very possibility occurred to me straight away when I was listening to Alberici’s interview.
Why wasn’t Clare fully across these various communications, since we all heard about them from the previous night’s interview with Helen Brown? I would have thought Clare’s staff would have been right on to this.
Clare should have had copies of these faxes and been prepared for Alberici’s questions. The time zone thing should have been known.
I wouldn’t accuse Alberici of “gotcha” questions – they were obvious ones to ask.
I would certainly accuse her, or her producers, of lack of fact-checking concerning the time zoning. It’s a further instance of the ABC’s now all-too-frequent dissemination of flakey “facts”.
But Clare could possibly be accused of similar sloppiness, since he clearly didn’t have this time difference on his tongue-tip during the interview last night.
Clare can be commended for his straight forward answers and lack of dissembling in the interview. But his department seems to have let him down badly by not having him properly informed over the timing of the faxes.
by dedalus on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:47 am
victoria:
It isn’t looking too good for Ashby either.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:49 am
Some thoughts on Brandis and his ludicrous claims on the relationship between the Carbon “tax” and the job losses at Fairfax:
by Fran Barlow on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:49 am
Re:
Could Mr Rintoul please explain how the Australian government could have done any more than it did which was to alert the Indonesian government to a vessel in distress in the sovereign waters of the Indonesian Maritime Zone? And then to co-ordinate the Search and Rescue with Indonesia? What does Rintoul want, for the Australian Navy to just steam on into Indonesian sovereign territory? It might give Mr Rintoul and the delusional Asylum Seeker luvvies in the Greens, the warm and fuzzies, but, at the end of the day there was a thing called Maritime Law to take into account.
However, you can probably set your watch by the fact that Sarah Hanson-Young will be out bleating the same line as Rintoul, the Greens proxy for testing the waters for the lines they want to run, in the media today, without batting a doe-eyed eyelash.
by C@tmomma on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:50 am
This is the meme being put out on shock jock radio, as well: “Gina invested money in Fairfax to help the company.”
She did not.
She bought someone else’s shares. No nett NEW money went into the company.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rinehart-should-not-sign-press-charter-joyce-20120622-20swm.html#ixzz1yZ3o4hqQ
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:50 am
confessions
Of course. We will need to see what Ashby says in his defence. Who is going to spill the beans? Will it be the other staffer, Ms Doane? Self preservation is a strong motivation
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:51 am
To Slimy Chris Kenny who asked Cassandra Wilkinson about Julia “lecturing the world” Cassandra replied, “Why is it a crime to be a patriot?”
by BK on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:54 am
vic, the MOAR Family
by The Finnigans on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:55 am