Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
And Sam Maiden basically agreed.
Next subject, Chris!
by BK on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:55 am
C@tmomma:
AGreed. I’m still disgusted that these people can barely last a day without using the deaths for their own political advantage.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:56 am
Btw this morning on sports radio, Rex Hunt (who used to commentate on footy as well as fishing shows), has an hour long program between 7 am to 8 am re fishing and boating. He made a statement this morning that next Saturday the program will be devoted to discussing the govt’s proposal re maritime parks. He said that the fishing anglers need to stand up and fight for their rights. He also said that there was 5 million anglers that fished at least once a year, and they will be able to send a message to this govt in the polling both. He said next week was going to set the wheels in motion in their fight.
Mind you he is hard to listen to at the best of times.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:58 am
victoria:
I like the analogy someone said of the govt poking a stick down a hole and sitting back to see what emerged.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:58 am
Proof. If you are poor forget justice.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/tough-means-test-locks-lowincome-earners-out-of-legal-aid-20120622-20tgi.html
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:58 am
Q Dan Gulberry Posted Saturday, June 23, 2012 at 12:24 am | Permalink
A message to Bilbo from a lemur on Twitter:
U IZ A MINOR FISH IN A VERY LARGE OCEAN AND THE INTERNAL POLLS ARE 50/50
Hope dan does not mind
Could not let this stay not read
by my say on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:59 am
BK
Good on Cassandra and Sam. Appears they put Chris back in his box!
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 8:59 am
confessions
I am not surprised that we will be getting morsels of the case before the Judge. Will anyone from the coalition respond to the latest? I would be extremely surprised if they did.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:01 am
Finns just in case tbe li eral lurkers dont click
AN INCREASING number of people in NSW are being shut out of the justice system because they are refused legal aid and are too poor to pay for a lawyer.
New figures obtained by the Herald reveal there has been a 41 per cent rise in the number of people refused help from Legal Aid NSW because they earn more than the income test threshold of $318 a week.
Most people who apply for legal help – 85 per cent – are on Centrelink benefits.
by my say on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:01 am
Of the case that is before the Judge.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:01 am
Gina Rinehart invested money in Fairfax to further her own interests, which are entirely distinct from the interests of other Fairfax stakeholders (creditors, shareholders etc)
What she wants is 100% control in exchange for less than 20% equity.
From her POV this makes perfect sense. If you can get that, why wouldn’t you? Who wouldn’t be pleased to have 4 out of ever five dollars spent pushing your interests coming from others? That these people might regard you as dreadful would add to the amusement value.
Ironically, that realisation (and the certainty that Fairfax will be casting aside its remaining audience in a fight for that part of the market controled by News Ltd) will probably drive down the share price in the longer run and make it easier for her to seize control and recompose the board after her own whims.
If she is successful, the net cost of News Ltd to Murdoch may escalate. No bad thing that …
by Fran Barlow on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:02 am
my say
Did you enjoy your birthday yesterday?
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:02 am
confessions,
I have a particular dislike for Mr Rintoul. He can be as slimy from the Lunar Left against the government’s best attempts to find a workable solution to the boat-borne Asylum Seeker problems, as Morrison and Abbott can be from the opportunistic Right end of the political spectrum.
It’s as if with the Greens and their camp followers such as Mr Rintoul, that People Smuggling on an industrial scale is OK, and the deaths at sea are OK, so long as we treat those boat-borne asylum seekers who make it to Australia, humanely once they get here.
It is as cynical, callous and dystopian a position as the Right’s.
by C@tmomma on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:04 am
Typical misogynistic Liberal guff from Mark Textor:
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/were-just-one-family–at-work-at-home-at-play-20120622-20tci.html#ixzz1yZA3xvIr
What about all those one parent families, or same sex couple families. Textor sees no role for mum either in his analogy.
Language matters.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:04 am
BB
I was just about to post the same thing. A truely cringe-worthy performance from Bananaby who richly deserves the Sucker-upper Award of the Week. The Golden Lips Trophy is his, along with a gold ring (for kissing whenever he feels the need) for a truely cringe-worthy display of fawning and toadying. Is he after one of Gina’s seats on the Fairfax board?
It’s unbelieveable that he seems to believe that Gina actually gave the money to Fairfax out of the goodness of her petrified heart. Surely he understands that the money went not to Gina but to the many people who were flogging off their shares. I would think that Bananaby, in his former life as an accountant, would have given advice to clients on the ins and outs of selling and buying shares. I hate to think what sort of losses those clients must have made by following his ‘advice’.
by leone on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:05 am
confessions
Dont know how the Greens and the Refugee action group can spin this into their favour. They are vehemently opposed to any other policy other than onshore processing, which we have right now. This current policy has seen an influx of arrivals, which also increases the risks of these tragedies occurring. The govt has been making this point for ages. The greens are in la la land.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:07 am
Fess
Assuming (1) they were Slipper’s official diaries recording meetings, transport, calls received etc and (2) they were either supplied by the Commonwealth or purchased by monies provided by it, the answer is YES.
Ashby and Lewis were most probably using them so dates used in Ashby’s charges and on the dodgy Cabcharge dockets tallied with Slipper’s whereabouts.
Probably the questions worrying Lewis & the DT right now are (a) what are the sentencing implications for taking part in a deliberate fit-up aimed at bringing down a government – especially given the DT’s & Lewis’s “form” over the Grech-Utegate case; (b) what will be the combined costs of court cases brought by the Commonwealth and Slipper, and any costs, fines and damages those cases might award; (c) whether NewsLtd can afford to keep Lewis on its payroll. For Lewis there’s a (d) whether he had specific and/or general DT approval to go out on a “utegate-style” limb once again.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:08 am
Edit . and the Refugee Action group mob are in la la land
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:08 am
Posted Saturday, June 23, 2012 at 8:31 am | Permalink
if the drownings aren’t here they’ll be somewhere else WOMBLE POSTED
My SAY POSTED
Well no one wants deaths any where, not to try to save lives
Is a tradgedy,
Thats equivalent here to work saftey isuess,
Here in the work place, we canot say we want have them becauce there is ac idents
Any way.
Still shaking head
by my say on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:08 am
C@tmomma:
The Greens are not a party of govt, therefore they can take any number of unrealistic positions on a range of issues regardless of how impractical or unworkable their ideas are.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:09 am
by lizzie on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:09 am
May I have one of our tame lawyer’s (
) opinions on what length of sentence Mal Brough is looking at if convicted of conspiring with another, being Ashby, Lewis et al.
), to bring down Peter Slipper and, by deduction, the government?
(
Would it amount to greater than the magic number which would see him unable to sit in parliament(assuming, of course, he obtains pre-selection for Fisher if the merde hits the fan)?
by C@tmomma on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:10 am
Hartcher at his poisonous best… a word cloud…
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/fair-is-foul-and-foul-is-fair-20120622-20u6g.html
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:10 am
OPT
The diary is also considered the property of Mr Slipper. What permission did Ashby get from Mr Slipper to provide copies of his diary to third parties? Frankly, this is a serious breach.
Lewis was in talks with Ashby before he even filed a claim. It can be gleaned that Lewis colluded with Ashby. Another serious breach. Of course, we bludgers already know that this was a set up. The question being, is there enough evidence to substantiate it all?
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:13 am
leone,
Barnaby Joyce knows what he is doing. He is promulgating the meme for the Conservative forces Mrs Rinehart is the spear-carrier for. It’s probably all part of a carefully-calculated PR strategy to turn the issue in their favour.
by C@tmomma on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:13 am
Leone
Hope twitter is at work on that one
There was i think a liberal back bencher who said similar this week
Hope mr swan comnents,
Its almost fu nny
Dividens paid b y companies is allyou see
by my say on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:14 am
c@tmomma
I am willing to bet that Brough will not be preselected for the seat of Fisher.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:14 am
This information on the Slipper diary and the Ashby and Lewis interactions is enough to start a Leveson Style Inquiry. As has been pointed out the similarity is striking. The difference here is that it is an attempt to bring down a government. Not the role of any media organisation.
@ABCNews24: Now on #WeekendBreakfast @ABCAndrewG talks the week in politics with @AustralianLabor MP @NickChampionMP http://t.co/AhggUgUN #auspol
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:17 am
my say
Bananaby’s comments didn’t seem to get much attention. I don’t know if that’s a good thing or a bad thing – good that no-one takes much notice of what he says, bad because we need to know what sort of fools are hoping to run the country.
Happy birthday for yesterday, I hope it was a good one.
by leone on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:19 am
guytaur
In order for an indvidual’s diary details to be given to a third party, express permission is required. Who gave Ashby, Lewis and Brough permission to access this diary?
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:19 am
Has Rabbott’s lot rehired Textor to do their thinking for them? Given today’s OO article, they probably are in dire need of someone who can. But someone who’s using Howard’s 1987′s failed campaign imagery?
BTW, I’m having lip-twitching, eyes-sparkling moments contemplating the current state of Pyne’s, Brough’s (and many other Liberals’) nerves – with accompanying imagery!
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:19 am
Ah…but if we put ANYONE who claims to be a refugee on a plane to Australia, and then process them here (while letting them live in the community) then there wouldn’t be any drownings.
There’s only a few million refugees in the world, so what could go wrong?
And it sounds like a great way for Aussies holidaying abroad to get home cheaply….
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:19 am
Very very quite
To day us girls including just alice head off for a childrens book launch
The author will read, and sign books
Alice has been choosi g her wardrobe since 6 this morning
All with oma love, label
Boys ofv to soccer, the this after noon very late cake
What more could a girl want
O ee ha e a ring in baby george
by my say on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:20 am
OPT
I am actually twitching with impatience. Have been impatient from the start.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:20 am
my say
Sounds like fun!!
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:20 am
Apologies if already linked.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/packer-and-rinehart-on-asic-radar-20120622-20tr9.html#ixzz1yZEWglCe
by lizzie on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:21 am
victoria
I liked the repeated wtte that ‘this is normal practice’ – as if ‘normal practice’ and ‘legal’ are exactly the same things.
Nothing to see here, it’s just normal practice…
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:21 am
zoomster
As I said, some are in la la land
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:21 am
Gosh now frans writing in green ink
Or is it just me
by my say on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:21 am
oops William: please delete @7729
Confessions on Textor’s paternal analogy
Quite right but more importantly,Textor’s analogy was utterly jejune. Even in its own terms, the analogy is flawed. A primary care giver’s role (not necessarily “a father”) goes way beyond sorting out an argument. It often entails seeing to it that burdens and benefits are settled where they are just, and protocols are written that are consistent, ethically just and maintainable over time. If someone regards that as “interfering” then that’s just too bad.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:22 am
victoria
I agree with you in regard to the diary. However one correction. Ashby did have permission to access it. He did not have permission to share the information. Rather like what Manning is accused of doing in the US in a loose analogy on legal terms.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:22 am
Mr Paul Kelly writes an article called, ‘Abbott’s gamble on cultural change’. It sets out where the Liberal Party wants to take government.
Mr Kelly makes public something that is virtually missing in the public domain – a comprehensive sense of where Mr Abbott wants to take Australia.
Occasionally we get flashes of the truth but they are soon suppressed: hints about IR reform, an assault on the entitlement culture, axiomatic dissing of the environment, scathing comments on scientists, and the wonders of individual striving to look after themselves as in Mr Hockey’s Hong Kong social vision.
Mr Kelly identifies three guiding principles:
(1) small government; end of entitlement cutlure
(2) ‘rebalance between enterprise and the environment”
(3) curb the idea that government knows best, limit interferance in people’s lives, cut social engineering… much greater personal responsibility.
Those who have checked #fakeAbbott’s# visiion statement will notice the parallels:
Suck up to the very rich; whack the ordinary Joe; root the environment.
So there we have it, folks: Gina Rhinehart and Clive Palmer as the apotheoses of the Australian dream.
What Mr Kelly is talking about is libertarian thinking made real.
These guys are nothing like Howard/Costello governments, BTW. Those governments were big spending entitlement mongers who had some consideration for the environment. Amongst other things, they generated the EPBC Act, the bete noir of the green tape-hating extinction mongers.
Ordinary folk have no idea at all what they are in for and Mr Abbott will try to keep it that way until it is too late. Basically, think Ayn Rand, 19th century unfettered capitalism, the environment as infinite sink and infinite sump and devil take the hindmost. All those on the public teat are in for a period of arid dugs.
My count of 60,000 public service positions gone from fed and state governments by around 2014, counts only 24,000 fed positions. I am willing to bet that there will be well in excess of 30,000 fed positions.
The thing that really concerns me is the fatal flaw at the heart of Mr Abbott’s philosophy of government: unfettered capitalism and a civilization-destroying market failure generated AGW and more of the same is utterly incapable of addressing AGW.
It is, IMHO, why Mr Abbott and his libertarian colleagues have no choice but to believe that climate science is crap. They have no choice but to destroy the credibility of the science because it simply does not fit their social and economic theory. It is the structural reason why so many Liberal part room members and virtually all National party room members are AGW dissenters. It is also why so few of them will ever switch their thinking on AGW. It would require profound personal values and ideological re-adjustments. This will not happen.
There is no room for unfettered, green tape cutting, small government, pro-enterprise policies if you want to address GHG emissions in sufficient scale and with sufficient speed to make a difference. That would be Big Government and Big Government is Bad. The two just don’t fit.
If you want to smoke and drink yourself to death, do it. If you want to piss away your wealth through the pokies, do it. If you want to do drugs,… uh, no. If you are gay and you want to marry… uh, no. There are still some steps too far in the libertarian world. These elements of ideological schizophrenia will thrive.
The environment will simply be handed back to the states and territories. We already know that Messers Baillieu, O’Farrell and Newman routinely whack the environment at every opportunity. Mr Kelly quotes Mr Robb on this. It is ‘…a visceral sentiment.’ As I have pointed out several times before, these guys hate the environment.
Mr Abbott’s assault on carbon tax is therefore not only political opportunism but an expression of a core philosophy.
Get ready for the grand regression.
Vision statement: Suck up to the very rich; whack the ordinary Joe; root the environment.
Finns, Boerwar, Fukushima & Co are very much looking forward to deploying their best and brightest under the new regime. After all:
‘Greed is good with a heart of gold.’
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:24 am
zoomster
I worked in legal for many years, there is nothing normal about an employee taking copies of the Employer’s diary, and providing them to third parties without express permission to do so. In fact, if I as an employee did the same thing, I would be sacked immediately. In this case, it was given to a journo and the nemesis of the Employer, who happens to be the speaker in the HOR. Who then had to step aside because of a claim lodged by the employee in the Courts.
Of course, this is all normal. Nothing to see here move along!
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:25 am
guytaur
Refer to my post at 7743
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:26 am
Boerwar
Dont give up just yet. Abbott still does not have the keys to the lodge
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:27 am
… but even if it is true, she isn’t just spending HER money.
She is spending money derived from the company her father gave her when he died; she was, essentially, gifted this cash cow. It is not her labours that made the billions; it was a combination of her father’s acumen and hard work and the current serendipitous circumstances.
Two of her most recent business decisions – chucking millions into a dying TV station and chucking millions into a dying media organisation – don’t exactly inspire confidence that she has inherited her father’s acumen. In fact, one wonders whether the good decisions that have been made by the company have actually come from the advice of others.
Add to that her decision to spend millions of dollars on legal fees, fighting off people who have a legitimate claim on money that Lang left for them.
As per her ongoing court case with her children – and others now and in the past – this money she is currently splashing around is money that Lang intended, in part, to give to others, including his ex-wife and, especially, his grandchildren. Which, in terms of the latter, Gina has so far failed to appropriately pass on.
Maybe Gina does understand her good luck, but she just doesn’t think she should have to share it.
So, given her penchant for appalling judgement and a demonstrated inability to understand and empathise with other people, I would have thought she is the very LAST person who should be put in charge of any organisation that the public relies upon for accurate and unbiased news and information.
Even SHE understand that, hence her reluctance to sign the charter.
by Danny Lewis on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:28 am
OPT @ 7716:
Ta for that. It’s my understanding as well.
Ashby could potentially be in a lot more trouble than he may have realised.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:30 am
victoria
am waiting for Murdoch to run the defence that it was normal practice to hack emails, phones etc.
The whole use of that ‘defence’ in that article points to some of the fundamental problems with our media at present – including the refusal of journos to face the facts about the behaviour of their profession.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:32 am
BB
Cant bring to read either Hartcher or Grattan. It always feels like groundhog day
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:32 am
Victoria, from the visages and miens of Albo, Emmo, Combet and other Government members – and some knowledge of what powers the Commonwealth & AFP have when the Commonwealth and its legitimate Government are being subjected to an apparent conspiracy to bring down the government (never say the Gunpowder Plot achieved nothing – and an even smirkier thought in the current case is that that plot, aka the Jesuit Plot, was deliberately planned to bring down the government – and the Parliament, literally) – I’d opine that YES, there is enough evidence to substantiate it.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:32 am