Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
zoomster
They can try that line. But in this case, the damage to those involved in this murky affair, the price for them will be very high.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:33 am
This is how I see the current position from a Labor point of view:
1 The polls aren’t generally biased or manipulated and they have consistently showed Labor facing an opposition vote of between 54% to 59%.
2 Of this vote, they can easily and most likely win back the votes of those that make up the excess over 54%.
3 The remaining 4% is pretty solidly against them, but have voted Labor at either of the last election or two. They will need a lot of convincing and it may need a ‘game-changer’ to do that. This 4% and more are probably very ‘anti-Gillard’.
4 Potential ‘game-changers’ –
The Ashby case, although I doubt this will be reported in such a way as to cause the damage it should do.
Tony Abbott and more time – enough said, but again, it will need more.
Unpopular state governments in Qld, NSW and Vic. They’re far more popular than their opposition now, so it will need time for the cuts and ideological pettiness to have an effect. This might be the Government’s best ally.
The benefits of the NBN becoming better understood.
Finally, an election campaign where the Opposition’s cost-cutting ‘policies’ come under some (given our media, scant) scrutiny.
Conclusion:
A win will be very dificult and the PM needs every day she can eke out, but it’s still realistically possible to win this election. Given the blanket media bias, it’s an uphill battle, but a week is a long time in politics and more than a year is an eternity.
by Swing Required on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:34 am
Wrong.
She is buying when the price is low and believes that her investment will result in neutering media commentary on mining interests or, if she’s really lucky, fool the public through advancing mining interests at the expense of the public interest..
Spend a dollar to make ten dollars? Good investment.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:35 am
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/lives-could-have-been-saved-says-refugee-advocate-20120622-20tjg.html#ixzz1yZINwQbB
Yep if they did not get on the boat.
by rummel on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:35 am
OPT
The glints in both Roxon and Albo’s eyes this week does suggest they have enough evidence. I really do hope so.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:36 am
Boerwar
I agree with your 7742 but would add one rider. I do not believe that Abbott (in spite of his economics qual. (sic) ) would make any of these decisions himself. He would leave it all to others, just as Kennett allowed the dries to recommend his actions. In that way Abbott would feel perhaps a little removed from the decisions and comfort himself that it was not he who was providing the pain.
by lizzie on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:37 am
rummel
By all accounts, you ducky and scorps had a great catch up yesterday. Good to hear!
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:37 am
Earl Wilkinson, the Dallas-based head of the International Newsmedia Marketing Association, whose membership includes 600 news companies in 80 countries, describes publishing in the digital age as a game of musical chairs in which this generation of publishers got stuck on the last chair.
”So you are looking at a smaller, more nimble entity. What happens when you run any business that has to shrink is you have to rank the things that are the most important and least important, and focus on the things that are most important. That’s the wrenching change we’re facing today,” he says.
Consequently, we are seeing the death of an era of ”blank-cheque journalism” and what he considers an absurd obsession with seven-day-a-week print publishing.
Media owners are trying all manner of strategies and in most cases they are not abandoning good journalism for ”the tyranny of the click”, despite a past predilection for making Britney Spears’s love life the lead story online, he says.
”There will always be a role for great journalism, but we have to do a better job of connecting it with a bigger audience or the right audience and not just throwing it onto the front page and throwing it out onto the street,” he says.
He notes that billionaires such as Warren Buffett and Gina Rinehart are appearing to fund newspapers, along with philanthropists whose prime motivation is to deliver good journalism.
Wilkinson says that many of the publishers he knows care deeply about journalism, including one owner of major American newspapers who three years ago, in the depth of a recession, was hurting deeply financially but did not want to scale his newsroom down any further.
”He was deadly damn serious about owning those newspapers to fund great big journalism,” Wilkinson says. If the economics finally forced him to move to internet-only editions, he would sell out.
In most cases, however, ownership is not about being a saviour, he says. Generally, those buying up papers see a good deal at the right price, while the power and ability to use their influence as media proprietors to benefit other parts of their business can be a strong motivator.
”I know owners of Latin American newspapers who haven’t made a profit in 20 years and say it is to influence the politics.”
Says Rusbridger: ”God bless people who’ve got money who want to buy into newspapers if it’s because they believe there’s a civic good in the free exchange of reliable information. That is a public good and if somebody wants to use [their] money for that, that’s great.
”It becomes much more alarming if they’re simultaneously seeking to get editorial influence and to push one interest or ideology or point of view. That becomes not a good. That becomes a bad.”
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/its-all-about-the-journalism-stupid-20120622-20tfk.html#ixzz1yZImjD6W
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:37 am
I see KK is quitting NSW politics. Any chance she will have a tilt at a federal seat?
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:41 am
victoria
We did. It was a very good night and i enjoyed it very much. I have my very left voting wife with me as a counter balance to my right ways so i was almost normal
by rummel on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:41 am
Okay, so we need to know whether the diary entries allegedly leaked to Brough were in Slipper’s personal diary, or his parliamentary work one.
If the latter, then Ashby would’ve had authority to access it, update it, make appointments on behalf of Slipper, and generally maintain it. I’d bet London to a brick that he did not have the authority to release entries in that diary to external parties without the knowledge or agreement of Slipper, as is alleged.
Deep doo-doo for Ashby if that is the case.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:42 am
Danny
There’s an old saying – rags to rags in three generations. It means that the first generation in a family makes the money, the second generation keeps hold of it and the third generation squanders it and goes back to rags. Think about the Packers as an example – Kerry simply maintained what he had inherited and didn’t add to the family fortune. James seems to be trying hard to get rid of it all as quickly as possible.
Gina is different. She may well manage it in just two generations. I’d love to one day see her begging her kids to give her a hand-out.
Why are we supposed to believe that people like Gina Rinehart and James Packer are highly skilled business operators when they are simply badly behaved spoilt brats who excel only at throwing their weight around and spending what their families have made.
by leone on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:43 am
rummel
I always said there was hope for you. You may yet still be convinced to come over to the dark side. Btw the current Labor govt is not leftist. It is very much to the centre right. So it should suit you. Unless of course, you prefer the reactionaries that comprises the coalition nowadays?
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:43 am
… only if you ignore the new media.
Spending millions of dollars on the dying dinosaurs when the real influence will be coming from the super mammals doesn’t sound like smart thinking to me.
by Danny Lewis on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:44 am
confessions
ashby has permission to access the diaries. But who gave him permission to provide copies to Brough and Lewis? The next question is why did he feel the need to provide them with this information? He needs to answer these questions. I cant see the answers being satisfactory on any level
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:45 am
The article in question:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/james-ashby-case-against-peter-slipper-built-on-trail-of-emails/story-fndckad0-1226405995227
(You’ll have to do the google thing):
Oh, so that’s OK, then.
But the naughty Commonwealth, who after all aren’t trained journos and thus don’t know any better…
But there’s nothing unusual about it! How dare they!
So how to explain this seeming obtuseness on the part of the Commonwealth?
Ah. The government just doesn’t like News Ltd, so they’re picking on them.
And it’s the biggest selling paper, so it can’t be wrong.
Julia Gillard is obviously just jealous, cos the newspaper’s popular and she’s not.
but NewsLtd knows that that’s just because…
Can’t be any other reason at all, of course.
Again, it’s normal journalistic behaviour, so it must be OK.
Ah, normal behaviour again.
I take it that the newspaper also contacted Slipper in their efforts to verify information? Or wouldn’t that be usual?
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:47 am
Puffy
I agree MJFs resignation letter was terrible. To blame the police when she’d got caught was pathetic.
But the disingenuous crap about having a second panic attack meant she has medical advice to quit was even worse.
Many people have panic attacks. None of them quit because they have two. Otherwise about 10% of the population would have to retire from work.
She quit because she got caught a second time which she fails to mention.
by Diogenes on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:47 am
victoria
I do agree with a lot of Labor. However, this is dwarfed by passionate dislike for Gillard.
And forget the Libs, the front bench could be found steeling candy from every kid in Canberra and no one would give a toss.
by rummel on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:48 am
Is PB a closed shop, or is it necessary to be either abusive or for or against Rudd to get a ticket?
(runs for cover:))
by Swing Required on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:48 am
Zoomster
Is it usual for a newspaper outlet to print details of a claim, before the defendant has even been served with a copy of the same?
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:49 am
Ashby accessing Slippers diary is fine.
Providing it to outside people is clearly not. Dunno if it’s illegal but it’s very wRONg.
by Diogenes on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:51 am
Ta whoever posted the Franklin piece on Ashby. Gotta love the sub-ed power: the headline ought to have been ‘Media, Brough colluded with Ashby’. But in anti-journalism style it’s watered down to something about Ashby case being built on emails, a bland heading about process. Not to mention confused (they meant ‘case against Ashby’).
If it seems fatuous to claim source protection when everyone knows it is Ashby and Lewis in footsie … Remember claims for privilege aren’t just about protecting identities (many who go to press know their identities will come out or be integral to story). The claim here is to protect against the release of further damaging or embarrassing material.
I presume he waved parts of diary round to try to back up his cabcharge complaints. But perhaps there were just some funny doodles the poor boy had to share…
by Graeme on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:51 am
@rummel/7768
It’s a pitty that doesn’t get transferred to Abbott.
If state governments of LNP is what’s coming under the carpet, I couldn’t imagine what’s coming at federal level.
by zoidlord on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:53 am
Swing Required
My gripe about the repetitive talk about Rudd, is that it does not help the govt at present. If the caucus believe that JG needs to go, they will decide in due course. If Rudd gets the nod again, so be it. But the endless discussion on this board about it, is boring and counterproductive.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:54 am
victoria:
I can’t see it being satisfactory either.
The whole thing just stinks to high heaven.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:57 am
swing required
There are those of us who are simply supporters of Labor and often keep very quiet because we don’t want to join in any of the leadershit. There are other groupie themes in this blog which deter people from posting on some days.
by lizzie on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:57 am
Victoria
you’d have to ask a journo.
I haven’t the benefit of their training and experience, so many things that are normal practice for them seem unethical to me.
I accept that’s my problem….
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:58 am
So, it’s situation normal for a newspaper to conspire with an employee of the Speaker of the federal parliament of Australia to bring down the Speaker and the federal government with him?
O…..K…..
by C@tmomma on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:59 am
zoomster:
Yesterday Fran Kelly interviewed News ltd CEO. She put it to him in relation to the future of newspapers “but what about the papers we love to read, what is the future of them under News ltd reforms?”
I nearly threw up. Who is this ‘we’ she refers to?
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 9:59 am
Dio!
How can you decide that something wrong has happened when noone’s been convicted?
Seems a bit of a shift from yesterday…
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:00 am
Rather a worrying comment by a medico that one third of people diagnosed as having dementia are suffering something else (such as deep depression).
IMHO Worrying in the sense that a person already clinically depressed, who was tole they had some form of dementia would be sent further down the spiral.
by lizzie on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:02 am
confessions
Certainly does.
You may have missed this the other day. But Jon Faine ABC radio host said on Thursday, that there are whispers that the Ashby case will be a tsunami that will engulf some LNP identities. He also hinted something about Palmer. Barries Cassidy agreed.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:03 am
It can be morally wrong but not illegal.
by Diogenes on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:03 am
Speaking about the demon spawn of the Labor Party, oops, sorry, Saint Kevin. Has anyone wondered why the month of October looms large in the Ruddserection plans? This might give you a clue, and anyone who thinks that the PM is safe after the 71-31 thrashing of Rudd in February better get real:
They have a plan and they are ruthlessly executing it.
by C@tmomma on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:03 am
The upcoming Heffron by-election should probably be a Labor hold. It’s sitting on a margin of 57.1 at the moment, and it’s been a solid Labor seat since it was created in 1973.
However, the Greens have a high vote here (19%), and if the Liberals don’t run a candidate then they have a chance of winning it.
I hope NSW Labor picks someone with good talent as its candidate to run in it.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:04 am
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/senior-liberals-take-up-attack-on-police-over-senators-shoplifting-charges/story-fn59niix-1226405989216
Bad policeman to arrest naughty Lib senator. Now if it were a Labor senator…
by lizzie on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:05 am
https://twitter.com/AusCustomsNews/status/216183438171049984/photo/1
by Leroy on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:07 am
Swing Required @7722
More or less the position of quite a few of us here for months now.
I am not quite as optimistic about your 4% – putting it closer to 6%. Also, we tend to overlook the fact the the swings are not always uniform.
You are basically saying the doom sayers are cutting their wrists far to early for Labor – and I agree.
Aside from the growing unpopularity of some State governments, there is still one budget and one election campaign to go.
Now, if a week out the polls are 60-40 to the conservatives well perhaps then the progressives may just have to face some gloom in the next three years.
However, it has been a long time since Labor has been this far down and I think the bottom was plumbed last winter.
Interestingly, the PV for the conservatives, healthy at 43% or thereabouts, has not improved one jot for months. In fact, there is a bit of evidence that it is actually going down.
Let’s not get too excited just yet. With current poll figures translated on election day it would be a bit of a wipe out for Labor.
On the other hand, we have seen Labor leads of 60-40 evaporate in very short weeks.
One thing that is becoming apparent is the electorate is becoming more volatile – that is when they are actually switched in to politics.
The intriguing matter will be just how the msm will cope if and when JG goes full term to August of September 2013.
All the so-called knowledgeable pundits have been writing her off for months and constantly shifting the dates further into the future.
Andrew Probyn in the West is kind of putting it down for around Christmas 2012.
I also think, politics being a funny business, that this will be an important time for Labor.
by Tricot on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:07 am
I did miss that, and hope it happens.
Bring on the MOAR.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:08 am
zoomster
It is not normal. It is an abuse of process. When a claim is lodged with the Courts, the Defendant then needs to be served with the documents and have the opporunity to file a notice of Defence in response. On what grounds would anyone file documents with a court on a Friday afternoon, and print the contents of the same whilst the a
defendant is half way round the world. In other words, the public have details of the claim before the defendant has been served. Never seen anything like it before
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:08 am
Diogs,
Like deep fried chocolate coated lettuce.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:08 am
Mr Kelly’s article also expressed some doubt about whether Mr Abbott would stay strong once he became prime minister. Indeed. Mr Kelly noted that there is more to government than sloganeering.
In relation to the carbon tax, Mr Kelly notes that Mr Abbott’s ‘epic exaggerations make him vulnerable’. And this leads to another criticial issue: populism and libertarian thinking are contradictory. The basic populist message is that I will do anything you want. The basic libertarian message from goverment is, ‘F*ck off, we are not interested in you.’
For libertarian-leaning parties gaining government therefore requires serial grand deceit.
Which, of course, is what we are getting.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:08 am
Danny
IMO she’s not in this for the long haul. She wants Abbott PM so that there’s no mining tax for 3 to 6 years. The new media won’t have a loud enough voice by 2013 to compete with Fairfax.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:08 am
Fess, other pro-Rabbott, antiALP ABC & NewsLtd journos, I assume, given plummeting buying-public readership!
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:09 am
BK – I actually watched Kenny today to see what would be said. The irksome Hunt was boring and stumbled a few times, but the killer for Kenny was that Maiden and Wilkinson were so sensible and floored him with their answers.
I couldn’t believe I was hearing a Murdoch journo say that Abbott should give in to the Govt. on the Malaysia deal nor that she would actually praise the PM for her Rio trip.
Glad I watched because it was a delight to see Kenny almost struck dumb.
by BH on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:09 am
You sound like you are reading straight out of the 13CABS play book.
by bakunin on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:10 am
catmomma
Funny how McKew thinks she knows what was being pushed by whom within meetings she was not at.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:11 am
from memory the “Malaysian Solution” became Labor policy with around 60% of the vote at the ALP National Conference – now I realise that Labor people will back Labor policy no matter how bad but I’m disappointed there aren’t more of the other 40% here
by womble on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:11 am
rummel
Think very carefully about what you have said, it lacks common sense!.
by 1934pc on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:12 am
C@tmomma
This seems to set out the plan, but it’s strange that McKew won’t be allowed to say anything in favour of Rudd. Unless everything has to feed into the “Labor govt bad” theme. McKew seems a bit like Abbott in this respect.
by lizzie on Jun 23, 2012 at 10:14 am