Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
This week many families have already received their education bonus payments. For eg my friend has one in primary and other in secondary school. She received $1,230.00.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:12 am
spur212 – I’ve read the Possum article & similar ones. The problem is that changing leaders will not bring any “certainty”. It will still be a hung parliament, still have overseas economics jitters, still have a two speed economy, still have a feral press, still have a feral opposition (and they’ll be emboldened), minus any more good work being done. That’s why the poll bounce would only be brief. You can’t make actually make today 2008 by putting in the PM who was there in 2008. Its an illusion.
by Leroy on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:13 am
GG, not sure the Greens can understand this. They understand cut &paste better
by The Finnigans on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:13 am
The finns
i cant wait for moar, because we know there is moar!!!
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:13 am
Paul Kelly having a bet each way on newspoll
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/abbotts-gamble-on-cultural-change/story-e6frg74x-1226405951205
by Lyne Lady on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:13 am
Leroy
I am enjoying your thoughtful posts
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:14 am
GG, Ruddoristas are dancing to the tune piped regularly – every time things look bad for the Libs, every NewsPoll weekend – by NewsLtd’s, Fairfax’s and the ABC’s Liberal-backing journos.
It’s they who are doing such a good job helping Murdoch & Co’s to trash the Labor brand; something no genuine Labor voter would even think of doing.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:15 am
zoomster
I never said that. I never contradicted it either. What I said was that those that let unseaworthy vessels with crew not trained properly as passenger ships are criminals.
These boats are being used as passenger ships. A lot but not all are unseaworthy and have untrained or not properly trained crew. This is what leads to the drownings. Not the passage from Indonesia to Australia.
The legality and illegality of those arriving is a different issue.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:15 am
Legal Eagle? Dunno about that. Buzzard, maybe.
And the answer to your somewhat loaded question is that he doesn’t. There’s no valid explanation for that kind of conduct. If he waas providing it to the coppers under subpoena…maybe. But Ashby seems to have been flogging it around to anyone who could use it to damage his employer.
A pretty clear breach of an employee’s fiduciary duty to his employer, I would have thought.
Not a criminal offnese, but a sackable one, clearly.
by smithe on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:15 am
smithe@7876,
Don’t forget the story Lewis was trying to get up around Peter Slipper not paying for some wine for an office celebration? Slipper knocked that one on the head pdq via well kept records. However, I wonder where Lewis obtained the original information about this from? No second prizes for guessing who.
Earlier, also, I asked if one of PB’s lawyerly friends knew how long Brough may serve at Her Majesty’s Pleasure should he be convicted of conspiring with Ashby to bring Slipper down, and under what charges?
Thank you in advance.
by C@tmomma on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:15 am
Vic
re MOAR – sadly no matter how much MOAR there is the media (print and TV) will spin it towards the libs…. general public won’t get the full picture – imo.
by Lyne Lady on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:16 am
Another friend has two in primary and one in secondary. She got payment of $1,640 re education bonus.
I am sure that the economy is going to benefit in the short term.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:17 am
ok let me get this straight – all these asylum seekers that are avoiding joining queues by getting on boats now will suddenly change their minds and happily join a queue in Malaysia if that becomes the policy???
like I’ve said before, Malaysia won’t work other than as a political fix – if people don’t drown coming here they’ll risk a journey elsewhere – people need to look at the bigger picture imo
or are lives less important than politics???
by womble on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:17 am
guytaur
Which, as far as I know, no one was discussing.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:18 am
GG
You are using the Howard, Abbott tactics to make to stampede opinion in the way you want.
It will not work. Off shore and On shore processing have no real connection to drownings at sea.
The connection for drownings at sea is the competence of the crew and the sea worthiness of the vessel used. Two separate and distinct issues.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:18 am
This has been my argument all along, and to date no Ruddstorationist has been able to put forward a credible refutation of it.
You also have to consider that a new leader would need to pretty much call an election straight away – esp Rudd, as we now know he lacks the skills needed to hold a hung parliament and his own caucus together.
Do people think Labor would win an election held now? It’s delusional madness.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:19 am
smithe
Thanks. Ashby is going to have a hard time being a credible witness.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:19 am
LL
There will come the day that the msm will be unable to ignore this story. Trust me
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:19 am
womble
No. The refugees who will come here will be from a totally different demographic from those who currently arrive by boat.
Exactly. Which means they’ll try a different country, and most likely one they can get to by plane or by land.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:21 am
smithe:
If the diary entries are deemed Cwlth property, then my understanding is that charges can be brought against someone releasing Cwlth property to external parties without authority or permission.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:21 am
victoria
The MSM know this. This is why News has got Franklin to write this piece. Try to make it look smaller as an issue than it really is. I emailed one of the Guardian editors with a link just in case they have not seen the story. Probably a waste of time. Still every little bit helps.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:21 am
Fess, they say we are the delusional ones remember.
by The Finnigans on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:22 am
Ahh little morons not wish to face the truth.
Gillard and the factional mafia are the only ones that trashed the Labor brand, and her extreme adulators continue to make labor look like a sick puppy.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:22 am
guytaur
The question is, why would someone pay a people smuggler thousands of dollars to get on a leaky boat, risk drowning, in the knowledge that they are going to be sent to Malaysia? Really think about it
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:22 am
guytaur – can you tell me exactly what is the Greens policy? All I seem to hear is that SHY wants AS to be brought in on planes instead of getting on boats. How many?
by BH on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:23 am
I’m not sure any of it would amount to a criminal conspiracy of any sort c@tmomma. Nicking the diary? Well he didn’t by the looks of things he merely photocipied it and handed-over the copies.
It’s clearly somewhat rotten conduct that would justify sacking the bloke, but criminal conduct? I doubt it.
by smithe on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:23 am
TP
See Slipper, Ashby, Lewis connection. See Leveson.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:24 am
guytaur@7920,
You need to Tweet a link to the story to Tom Watson. He also has a blog.
He’d be very interested in the News Ltd perspective on what journalism exists to do in society.
by C@tmomma on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:25 am
OMG, the PM is a Female !!!!
The Payne of it all
by Mick Collins on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:26 am
Thomas paine
Why if Gillard is so bad, people on the liberal party voting side say if she changed some policies they dont like , she would win the election easy
by Meguire Bob on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:27 am
That should be
The Paine of it all
by Mick Collins on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:27 am
victoria
The same can be said of Nauru. That did not work despite experts at the time telling Howard it would and that was with the odious TPV in place.
BH.
I know the Greens policy is On Shore processing. I know the suggestion of planes was a political comment to highlight the hypocrisy regarding boats.
As for numbers I do not remember but they are out there. Remember the numbers arriving by boats are far less than those by plane.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:27 am
So 60%+ of the population thinking gillard rubbish, Rudd being the far preferred leader of the country out of anybody, the public telling us that the want gillard gone.
Love how the gillard adulators think the Australian people rubbish, and there preferences rubbish compared to that of the factional mafia bosses.
In fact it is these people who emotionally worship gillard that harm the party.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:27 am
guytaur
nauru wont work because it is much like Christmas Island. Detention for a while until claims are dealt with. Being sent to Malaysia on the other hand.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:28 am
FFS
They won’t get on boats in the first place. Those already in Indonesia? Of course they won’t be happy.
I think you are a deliberate state of denial.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:29 am
smithe@7925,
Thanks for that.
I was actually thinking about the matter from the Brough perspective. That is, his attempts to ferment a conspiracy to bring down his rival in Fisher, Peter Slipper, by co-opting Ashby et al to his cause. Then relating a conviction, if proven, and under what charges (?), to the amount of time in jail being of sufficient length to disqualify him from sitting in parliament, should he even be pre-selected. Which prospect is looking dodgier by the day.
Thanks again.
by C@tmomma on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:30 am
guytaur
you can’t simultaneously argue that the Greens policy is better than the government’s and then say you don’t actually know what it is.
Well, not without being called a blind partisan hack, that is!
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:30 am
Lyne Lady, if by “general public” you include GenY&Z, a growing proportion of GenBlues, and that section of GenBoomer which swore off the Liberals during Vietnam War conscription and never broke that vow – they DON’T get their political messages from the MSM, they get it from the Internet: some from Liberal, LNP/ALP other RW/LW sites; but more from Blogs, Twitter and other social media – especially oldies who have opted for iPads & similar devices over phone keyboards arthritic fingers find very difficult to use.
GenBlue is the 2nd highest user of the Internet, and newspapers now an unnecessary waste of their pension/ super money.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:32 am
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/22/najat-vallaud-belkacem-france
worth a read
by Leroy on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:33 am
TP
When you quote those stats, you are omitting the fact that a majority of Labor voters support Gillard. It is the Coals who want Rudd back.
by lizzie on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:33 am
c@tmomma
I cant see how Brough could be preselected with this and the Council allegations hanging over his head
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:35 am
victoria
You are talking about people determined to make money out of ferrying people from Indonesia to Australia. The number Malaysia would accept is limited. So that would not work.
The numbers of people are going to come and come and come or they will stop. All depending on the wars creating refugees around the world.
It is only a John Howard fallacy that you can stop that. All illusion. What you do is manage it as best you can.
We know the flow is going to be drastically reduced shortly thanks to the way things are going in Burma. The flow from Iraq has slowed dramatically. The flow from Afghanistan will soon slow a lot due to the changeover when our troops depart. Note I am not saying stop. For some the conditions will be too horrific to cope with. The new big flow is going to come from Syria. For some reason a lot of Syrians like Australia best and will try and get here despite the obstacles.
The problem is the human will and what people will go through once they are forced to move.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:35 am
zoomster
See there you go again lying. I said what the Greens policy is in broad terms. You want better understanding go study the Greens published polices for yourself.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:36 am
no it isn’t at all accurate in relation to those advocating Rudd, that those advocating Julia with the kind of polling she has need to draw quite silly arguments like this, illustrates just how bad things are.
by WeWantPaul on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:37 am
guytaur
During the time it appeared that the Malaysia deal was proceeding, boats stopped coming. They started again when the High Court ruled against it. Some asylum seekers were interviewed at the time, and confirmed that the Malaysia deal had stopped the trade for a while. I reckon we should give it a go
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:37 am
lizzie – I’m suprised how many people respond to TP, most of them (not you) lashing back at his own emotive language. It’s a waste of time. I’m willing to engage with most real ALP supporters who hold a different view to mine on this issue occasionally (but not on the PB daily rostering system), but not his vengeful baiting.
by Leroy on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:40 am
Since the question has been asked:
Greens policies on Asylum Seekers/Refugees
by Fran Barlow on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:40 am
How delicious, and the timing exquisite. Look forward to the read. Hope she includes all the details of that sordid and dishonest event by gillard.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:40 am
victoria
You cannot look at the flows in isolation. You have to look at what the flows around the world were doing. A point Kevin Rudd made well when dealing with this issue.
As for the reaction of course the boats stopped in the short term. A new obstacle in place. However like water flowing down a hill it is only a mater of time before a way is worked out to overcome the obstacle.
It is illusion that you can stop people moving. Just look at Italy and the trouble it had with all the refugees from Libya arriving on one Island. In greater numbers than we experience. The only way they solved the problem was to transfer the refugees.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:42 am
The green policy is massively irrelevant except to highlight how very stupid and immoral what they are doing is.
The choice for the greens is to support the Govts solution, improve it if they can, and if it doesn’t work then point that out (with a cocky swagger).
Or they can align with Abbott and cheer when people drown.
by WeWantPaul on Jun 23, 2012 at 11:42 am