Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
Page 1 of 3 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
James Murdoch had secret iPhone accounts
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/police-study-murdochs-secret-iphone-account-7857331.html
by Schnappi on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:53 pm
Burke on fire!
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:54 pm
Good to see Burke in the house.
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:54 pm
This from Katharine Murphy:
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/blogs/the-pulse/politics-live-june-18-2012-20120618-20iu7.html#ixzz1y7LzYuRr
by Lynchpin on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Traditional ALP issues:
-Ensuring a quality education for all children: Coalition +2
(after all that work from Gillard over the last 3 months around schools and talking about the importance of education, not to mention the $820 school kids bonus)
-Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system: Coalition +6
(you’d think plain packaging of cigarettes and means testing the PHI rebate would win some points, but no)
-A fair IR system: ALP +6
(obviously, but should be way higher. Won’t be while the ALP repeats the workchoices fear campaign against the centralised wage fixer Abbott)
-Protecting Australian jobs and local industries: Coalition +6
(I think the alliance with the Greens is causing this)
-Housing affordability: Coalition +11
(how the Coaltion are ahead on this one is beyond me)
by spur212 on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Article on sense of entitlement:
http://newmatilda.com/2012/06/18/what039s-wrong-asking-what039s-it-me
by Pegasus on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:55 pm
liyana
I tend to agree. Having been brought up to use libraries, rather than buying books, I don’t see why I should have to pay for every-bloody-thing I want to read, watch or listen to.
by lizzie on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:56 pm
BK,
I hope this gets reported.
by This little black duck on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:56 pm
Now here is some easy money.
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Today’s Essential is a perfect example of why mid-term issues-based polling is ridiculous.
For HOUSING AFFORDABILITY, Labor is minus 11 compared to the Coalition. I mean seriously.
The Coalition is plus 2 on EDUCATION.
FFS.
by gloryconsequence on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:59 pm
Horsey, there is nothing crow about. These are the Greens’ Apologia Pro Vita Sua. If not, why having the Greens at all.
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 2:59 pm
Dare to Tread 759 re Polls
____________
I think you are quite right re the polls and they show no movement of any note,nor have they done in months
One poll may vary from month to month but as you say they are stuck in the 44-45% zone for Labor
BUT Please don’t let GG hear you say this …!!or you be denounced as a traitor
He is a believer in the magic of July 1.. when all the voters will dance in the streets at the receipt of a few bucks for the carbon tax benefits
I think that is a fantasy and an illusion based on wiseful thinking of a curious kind
Does anyone know what will help if money won’t do the trick’
Much of the post Budget money has already gone out and so has the cash for the Carbon tax benefits…which in most cases was a small amount anyway
We… and other family members have alrady received ours as I guess have most families.and people on PB ??
..but still no lift in the polls
So does this raise the question always posed by Tom Paine…the Gillard question ?????????????
The BIG ONE ??????
So…what now ?
by deblonay on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Will Poll Bludger be dominated by talk of the ALP leadership on Friday 29 June 2012:
Yes: $1.01; No: $100,000
by Lynchpin on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Back again. The Senate has been interesting on Marine Parks
@TheHarryMessel: A lack of penises? @latikaQT MacDonald – ‘what is to stop foreign boats coming in and raping and pillaging’ our seas? #directquote #SenateQT
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:00 pm
lol Burke is pissed.
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Burke is taking no prisoners.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:00 pm
I don’t think the Oops do planning for QTs. Warren must be loving this, not!
by This little black duck on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Lynchpin #803: Silly Brandis. Trying out a LOTO style “carbon crocodile tears for workers” stunt on a bunch of workers that can actually answer back .
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:02 pm
BH
They breed them (the Coal) with thicker skins and a certain sliminess that allows insults to slide off with no injury to their ego.
by lizzie on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:02 pm
“When the option to say ‘No’ is there; it’s irresistible to them!”
Burke’s parting comment.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:02 pm
gloryconsequence
I think it’s a broad segment of voters who have simply turned off the ALP as a whole more than a specific judgement on each issue.
Can’t explain how else the ALP would be behind the Coalition on some of those issues such as education and health.
That they are should be extremely concerning regardless
by spur212 on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Anyone who thinks the leadership will change before September is a fool
by spur212 on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Joke Christensen with an invitation to Burke to fillet him.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Big George is coming in off his short run. Slow full toss appears.
by This little black duck on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:05 pm
re the the magic painless tax cash….
I think i get some money back, but im not sure. Money goes into the back account and out, we do not look to see where a few spare hounded dollars came from. We assume we have done really well on our spending this week. Labor should have sent cheque’s to everyone so they would have had to bank it and think long and hard that Labor has given it to them for Carbon tax compo.
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Cate is an environment ‘activist’ who has no understanding of the environment, refuses to entertain any sort of compromise even when it can be win win, and actively works to antagonise all non-environmental groups. For instance she refers to horse riders in today’s SMH as ‘an extremist element’.
by bluegreen on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:06 pm
member for dawson booted
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Christensen told to go outside to the treadmill for an hour.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Christiansen carded ?
by Mick Collins on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:07 pm
Luzziie yes thats my point
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Ah the tinnies. where is Truthie when you need him
by The Finnigans on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:09 pm
@JulianBurnside: Fraser condemns Abbott policy on #asylumseekers http://t.co/2kyS9Paj “I was a stranger and you invited me in…” Discuss.
@LatikaQT: “@theJWhick: @LatikaQT About all he’s good for, really…” Harsh, but I wish we could ask him about *that* meeting with Torbay.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Time for a “claw back” or three.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:10 pm
BG how does Kate suggest we get around once cars are banned?
by davidwh on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Rummel i ‘presume is giving back his exrra payments
by my say on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:10 pm
“@LatikaQT: Thistlethwaite ending with a dixer to Lundy about supporting our Olympians in the lead up to London. #SenateQT”
This was the tweet I meant to post instead of the Burnisde one.
@ABCNews24: Watch: The @Greens @sarahinthesen8 & @AdamBandt addressing the media on the #marriageequality bills http://t.co/AhggUgUN #auspol
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:10 pm
arrgh
Something playing up big time. Even if only my mind. The original tweet was about Thistlewait doing a dixer on Olympics.
by guytaur on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:11 pm
“claw back” count = 10
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:12 pm
19 leaders of the G20 meeting commence looking over their shoulders at their deputies who all have smile’s of support.
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/world/bus-crash-delays-julia-gillards-g20-meeting-in-mexico/story-e6frfkyi-1226398604587#ixzz1y7QUIOIz
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:13 pm
No SSSO today again? What’s happening?
by dooby on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:14 pm
David,
With non-leather shoes.
by bluegreen on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:14 pm
BK – cheeky! I somehow think he won’t.
by BH on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Would not know if i got one or not. Not much hope for a July 1st bounce if people dont realise they got money of the government. We all know about the Power price rise’s.
by rummel on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Is Morrison sitting in the chair for an MPI on AS?
by BH on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:15 pm
BH
I think he would like treadmills as much as he likes facts.
by BK on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:16 pm
I’m surprised the opposition aren’t blaming the Fairfax job cuts on the marine parks as well.
Less fishing -> less fish and chips -> less demand for newspaper.
by ShiftyPhil on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:17 pm
No mention of Pyne much on PB today. Has he been quiet?
by Lynchpin on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:18 pm
by lizzie on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Lynchpin Pyne is probably busy deleting messages.
by davidwh on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:19 pm
No MPIs on Mondays.
by This little black duck on Jun 18, 2012 at 3:19 pm