Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Danny ROFL – you’d be suing me for your house being turned into a new ‘blast zone’. I luv the critter but gee whiz, Abbott lovers are hard to take. The telephone line between us fairly sizzles at times. Just lucky we always end up laughing at each other.
BTW – he knows ALL about the wineries!
by BH on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:09 pm
GG
What self respecting goat would bother with the Evan Parsons Project?
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Finns
Voldemort?
by Diogenes on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Dan,
It’s Evan wot does the bothering, comrade.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:11 pm
Oh goody.
So – if we can just convince people it’s Not Our Problem – we can just sit back complacently and let untold numbers of people drown?
As I said before, the Greens are fond of policy solutions which push the responsibility onto someone else.
So all that hand wringing about the plight of poor refugees is just that…political theatre.
Gobsmackingly cynical.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Greensborough Growler: You really are a nasty piece of work, it’s about time William banned you again.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:13 pm
zoomster
Yes you have got the Abbott playbook out well and truly.
The safety of boats is not our problem. That is indonesias problem unless you want to conquer Indonesia. It is a simple fact of life of how the world works.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:14 pm
GG ‘no specific knowledge’ are weasel words. The journos know it but lack the spine to tackle Abbott on it.
It would have been the easiest thing in the world for Abbott and Pyne-o-clean to have said ‘I have no knowledge’ of the ashby matter. But they said very carefully ”no specific knowledge’.
They are clearly covering their arse.
by Rossmore on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Guytaur
I’m sorry, but your stance is worse than Abbott’s.
At least he pretends to care about the loss of life.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:17 pm
Julia’s going to regret sacking Robert McClelland from the ministry:
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:20 pm
Evan,
Boo!
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:20 pm
GG
“We are currently processing people in Australia and that is leading to deaths and a never ending flotilla of people arriving on our shores.”
People die doing things all the time. We could make it safer by transporting them here.
The ‘never ending’ is never going to end. Why does it have to end? The fact is the world is not equitable, we are all in the richest one or two percent of the world so the poor of the world are going to try and get here. It’s just the way it is, and making different rules won’t change anything.
There are some things we can change and some things we can’t. We will never be able to stop people attemptting to come here.
by Astrobleme on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Syria has shot down a Turkish jet.
How much more shit is the world going to take from Assad?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/neighbours-on-edge-as-syria-admits-shooting-down-turkish-jet/story-e6frg6so-1226406223750
by Diogenes on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:21 pm
zoomster
You are hypocritical. You care nothing for the loss of life. If you did you would be advocating direct flights to Australia. Right Now.
Easily done. No matter what policy is decided in Canberra stopping drownigns is easy. Just put them on a flight.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:22 pm
oops drownings
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:22 pm
Well said gapnel
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Darn
If you look at the issues polling (Newspoll and Essential are two examples) you’ll see that when people are rating issues, they’re rating them as a group.
As an example, if we take Labor’s ratings on Essential’s party to best handle election issues poll from July 2010 and compare it to the one last week we get:
Management of the economy: -6
Ensuring a quality education for all children: -8
Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system: -8
Protecting the environment: 0 (Greens -9)
A fair industrial relations system: -9
Political Leadership: -12
Addressing Climate Change: 0 (Greens -5)
Controlling interest rates: -6
Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries: -13
Ensuring a quality water supply: -7
Housing affordability: -8
Ensuring a fair taxation system: -10
Security and the war on terrorism: -7
Treatment of asylum seekers: -7
Managing population growth: -7
Here’s where the Coalition have gone on these issues:
Management of the economy: +6
Ensuring a quality education for all children: +10
Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system: +9
Protecting the environment: +8
A fair industrial relations system: +6
Political Leadership: +7
Addressing Climate Change: +8
Controlling interest rates: +5
Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries: +7
Ensuring a quality water supply: +5
Housing affordability: +9
Ensuring a fair taxation system: +8
Security and the war on terrorism: +10
Treatment of asylum seekers: +7
Managing population growth: +9
As to the numbers this is shifting towards the Coalition from the ALP on voting intention, 2PP etc, I can say that the ALP is losing around 7-8%, the L/NP are picking up around 3-4%, 1-2% are going to the Greens and 1-2% are going elsewhere.
I’m not an expert on this sort of thing like others but this should show that there is some sort of thing broadly going on in the mind of voters into what the party’s stand for as a whole. How the ALP are behind on issues like interest rates, housing affordability, education and health is beyond me. If I were to make a guess, I’d say it’s about “Layba valews maaaate!” and what people associate with them
by spur212 on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:25 pm
Zoomster
“At least he pretends to care about the loss of life.”
Why do you say such vile things?
People die all the time, do you weep for all of them? Do you bemaon the deaths of people starving to death? For the people who die in camps waiting for asylum?
To claim that if we don’t care about the death of some people who were trying to improve their lives and risked it all to do so, is unbelievably superficial and vile.
by Astrobleme on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:26 pm
{metaphorically exchanges Greens t-shirt for business attire; deposits left wing identity in secure box and exchanges it for ALP immigration minister}
Setting: HCA strikes down “Malaysia Solution”; Libs decline offer of Nauru + Malaysia.
ALP Minister: As deeply disappointing as this situation is, I don’t imagine the Australian public will allow political gridlock to obstruct policies aimed at stopping the flow of irregular maritime craft carrying intending asylum seekers to our North Western shores.
We believed the Malaysia Solution would have been an effective answer that fit within the scope of the regional agreement to restrain the trafficking in people, but the opposition, in concert with the Greens, have the numbers to block this plan, and it seems clear that they intend to do so. While we are gridlocked, people are dying and so although we think it utterly improbable that the “Pacific Solution” will work, we are prepared, under certain conditions, to support the opposition’s proposal. The conditions are as follows:
The opposition devises (in concert with my department) a plan to build and staff facilities in any place where the relevant jurisdiction agrees. They get access to all documents and get to over see rollout of all facilities. They and we agree on an independent body to oversee the success of the program in staunching the flow of ireegular craft once the facilities are fully operational. They support the appropriations and guarantee all funding for them now and in the future. At least 60% of the Liberals and Nationals in both houses record their belief that the program will work as intended in stopping the boats.
12 months after commencement of full operation, an audit of the program will be conducted to examine its success. If in the view of the independent auditors, the program was a success, I will apologise to the House for holding up the Pacific Solution and for commenting on these matters and resign as minister.
Conversely, if the program is regarded as a failure, then the Opposition leader and those amonsgt the Liberals and Nationals who declared their belief in it and who are in the Shadow cabinet will apologise to the House, explicitly disavow commenting on these matters and then resign. They will then support the Malaysia Solution.
This allows us to avoid the endless recrimination — to substitute a living test for argy bargy and to do it in a way that roughly half the population presumably thinks worth trying.
Can’t say fairer than that, surely?
{Fran reboots as Leftwing Green}
by Fran Barlow on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Looked up the Australian journalism “Shield Laws”.
http://www.cla.asn.au/Article/Shield_Laws_InghamL0803.pdf
It seems we are “behind” other countries in giving protection to journalists from having to reveal their sources.
Basically, if the leaker/source was breaking either a civil or criminal law in leaking the Commonwealth government information the journalist doesn’t have much of a leg to stand on.
In Lewis’ case, we know who the leaker is, so protecting his “source” isn’t really an option.
In fact it may be better for Lewis to actually testify, since there is much corroborative evidence (in the form of documents, telephone/email records etc.) that the court could easily make a finding of fact based on just those.
It may be in Lewis’ interest to try to soften the effect of the evidence the Commonwealth already has.
The big issue here could become News Ltd’s interference in government itself.
Whether they like it or not, the only two Constitutional officers above Slipper are the G-G and the Queen. The Prime Minister, for example, doesn’t rate a mention in the Constitution. Slipper’s role is very, very senior and the Commonwealth has a perfect right to defend him and the status of his office.
News is seeking to buy out Foxtel. They have a LOT to lose in this. Any government now has a precedent (from the UK) to stop such a takeover dead in its tracks if impropriety can be proved, even impropriety in another area of the corporation’s business.
It’s a huge implication of the Ashby case, besides the purely political and workplace aspects of the discrimination section of the case itself.
What fools News Ltd managers were to think they could so easily bring down a government, and what fools they were to think that government wouldn’t try to take their defence of the allegations as far as it could go. This is the opportunity ministers like Conroy (who we know is a DT hater) would have been looking for.
News are now in this up to their necks. They stand accused by the Commonwealth (with bottomless pockets to back them up) of deliberately trying to bring down a government by double-dealing with, even paying the expenses of a highly dodgy litigant. This isn’t kid stuff anymore. It’s war. And it’s a war the Commonwealth didn’t start – so accusations of victimization can hardly be sustained – but may well get to finish.
In words attributed to Yamamoto:
Whether he said them or not, they seem apt in this situation.
As for Ashby, he is finished. The Commonwealth’s evidence will be that he betrayed his boss, dealt secretly with his boss’s enemies, and fed scurrilous stories to the Murdoch press, in the form of that odious purveyor of counterfeit documents, Steve Lewis. He took their money and he took their protection. Judging by the confidence on every minister’s face regarding this matter, I’d say they’re pretty sure of their ground.
In the background, Abbott bleats that this is a case of sexual harassment and that the government is desperate to divert the public’s attention from that central fact.
He’s wrong on law (it’s a discrimination case) and he’s wrong on the motivations.
The Commonwealth has every right to try to prove that Ashby was not damaged by any of Slipper’s actions, and that thus his case for damages is a load of old codswallop. Part of this is to show that Ashby feigned such injury in order to bring a political case.
They have every right to try to restrict the ambit of workplace law, especially when the “injuries” claimed are so flimsy. If the Commonwealth loses then anyone who has their feelings hurt in a Commonwealth workplace would be in line for millions in compensation. It’s an eminently fightable case on all counts.
Wherever the discussion goes, it does seem to be somewhat disingenuous for News Ltd, one of the nastiest, play-for-keeps litigants in history, to now cry foul over the Commonwealth simply reacting to a trigger that they (News Ltd) pulled.
The more I think about it, the more I believe Ashby may try to withdraw his complaint. Whether the court would let him do this is problematic, but it could happen, if an apology is required as part of the settlement. All this would definitely be Ashby’s mind right now, as we discuss the matter.
At stake is no less than the right of the elected government to govern, the status of its third-most senior Constitutional officer, the fate of News Ltd in yet another country, the fate of its cherished investment strategies and the fate of the malignant old man who runs it, but who is on borrowed time with his own board and investors. One more scandal could see the end of Rupert Murdoch himself.
Pass the popcorn.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:29 pm
OK people
Fill me in please
Did McLelland specifically RAISE the Bruce Wilson affair? What did he say?
by daretotread on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:29 pm
Astro
If the shoe fits.
If you care about loss of life, wherever it may be occurring, then you look for ways to prevent it.
You try what you can.
You don’t just wash your hands and either blame the victims or palm off responsibility to another country.
…..and I’m interested that none of you answer expounded to me about the implications of putting people on planes.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:31 pm
I explicitly endorsed it on p129 (@6445 IIRC)
by Fran Barlow on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:32 pm
guytaur – you do realise that Indonesia is trying to govern more than 300 million people on hundreds of small islands with little hideaway areas where AS can be put into boats.
Indonesia cannot, on its own, watch out for thousands of asylum seekers who have money to pay smugglers. Malaysia is the same.
Do you expect those Govts. to seek out every fishing boat and check it for seaworthiness for the smugglers?
The ONLY way that Fraser got his way with the Vietnamese boat people was because Bob Hawke made it a bipartisan issue and was not an obstructionist who just played politics. Fraser gets all the kudos but without Bob Hawke and Labor it would not have happened.
It’s Labor in this country that gets the decent changes made and tries to solve the problems for all of us not just a few.
by BH on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:33 pm
Er, Fran.
Labor did indeed propose something very similar to that…
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:33 pm
McClelland is not making his forthcoming pre-selection battle with KK any easier for himself.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:34 pm
BB
Fabulous summation. Pass the popcorn!!
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:36 pm
OC@8125
Is that what you believe, or have heard?
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Exactly what is the latest on Ashby?
by gough1 on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:38 pm
BB
If anyone who has had their feelings hurt can claim sexual harassment, that has implications for more than just the Commonwealth!
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:40 pm
DTT
He said that he and JG were opposing lawyers in some union governance issues in the 1990s.
That is all. Bolt among others have said this refers to the Wilson issue – the only problem is that JG was not Wilson’s solicitor.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:40 pm
gough1
This should help
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/in-depth/james-ashby-case-against-peter-slipper-built-on-trail-of-emails/story-fndckad0-1226405995227
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:40 pm
BH
Indonesia has its problems I know. You just have to see that by the fact that the first distress call was received 38 nautical miles off the coast of Indonesia on Tuesday. If action had happened then maybe no one would have drowned.
I truly think this is an Indonesia problem in lots of ways. From how they manage the asylum seekers that pass through their country to things like standards for their people to follow.
Just look at that case recently of the boy killed by touching a neon sign in Bali.
None of these problems are easy for Indonesia to fix and it would be silly to pretend otherwise. My point is we should not let the media make out that some things that are not our fault are.
They are only doing so to get emotions stirred up against the Government.
Just like they did with the Pink Batts. The safety of the workers was a Qld State Government problem of standards in the workplace and enforcing that on employers.
This is reported the same way.
Debate On Off shore processing all you want. Just do not use safety standards of another country to cast blame where it does not lie. This is all I am saying.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Vic
Of course not – I only said it to annoy Evan
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Re Mary Jo:
Alan Moyes said:
To which Diogenes replied
What Alan described is commonly called agoraphobia and leads to panic attacks. It’s like someone suddenly wanting to get off the bus or train.
I can well imagine having a pile of shopping and standing in a queue to pay when a panic attack strikes. You have two options: drop the shopping on the floor and run or try to get out unnoticed.
I am not saying the second option is necessarily a valid one, and I can certainly understand the reaction from those who don’t know the condition. However both Alan and Diogenes know the condition and know that during a panic attack a person’s thoughts are irrational.
Alan added quite correctly:
Unusual? Not completely.
by lenxyz on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:42 pm
BB – I’m with you on Ashby withdrawing but if that happens the Oppn will really go hard on Labor and say it was scared of the outcome so bloodied Ashby to get him to withdraw.
I’m a bit puzzled at how Lewis can get out of appearing in Court to ‘protect his sources’ when he has already told Ray Hadley that he had been talking with Ashby for quite a long time. All the emails (to and fro) that the Cmwlth has will be on show so Lewis hasn’t much to hide behind or has he?
by BH on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:43 pm
OC
Evan is annoyed by all things Labor
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:43 pm
BH
Even if Ashby withdraws his claim, the Commonwealth can put everything out on the record. They will not make the same mistake re Grech.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:44 pm
BH,
From Hawke in 2004, over the Tampa affair
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/08/24/1093246520431.html?from=storylhs
“Mr Hawke said the lie had created a climate of hatred towards asylum seekers and an atmosphere Mr Howard thought was conducive to his re-election.”
Unfortunately I feel that Abbott can’t actually think for himself, but to only rely on his masters voice.
It worked for Howard so therefore it must work for me.
by Augustus on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:45 pm
Not that similar. I’d have read about it. The plan puts its finger on the LNPs weakness — policy. They can no longer just throw rocks. They get to make policy before the election is held and to give the public a chance to see what they would be like without giving them total control for 3 years. It also plugs an area of partisan bickering and the regime gets to take the moral high ground with conservatives.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:47 pm
BH
I should have also said in my last post, that even if Ashby withdraws his claim, if the Commonwealth have made a counterclaim against Ashby, the case proceeds on the basis of the counterclaim.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:49 pm
On Senator Mary Jo Fisher.
I do think that the security at shopping centres can be outrageous at times. I know why it is there but I do know that it can be way over the top. Especially by some individual security types.
So there is some good news on the horizon. Apple is rumoured to be developing a system for paying for things that works just like their App in their retail stores. You can go in. Talk to no one. Scan the bar code. Walk out of the shop.
This would at least help people who truly were doing what the Senator is claiming to have done. There would be no queue to pay and all the goods in the trolley would already be paid for.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:49 pm
That Hartcher article makes me think he’s being backgrounded again, by Rudd or by Tony Abbott.
by rishane on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:53 pm
When Fraser sought to bring Vietnamese refugees to Australia after Thailand had closed it’s borders, Howard was reported as asking if this was only a tempory measure to which Fraser responded NO!
by Augustus on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:55 pm
Oh one last thing regarding Senator Fisher. I would advise her until she has come to grips with her condition to do as much as her shopping online as possible. Then she need only go to out to socialise having a coffee and the like.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:55 pm
I would respond that Ashby started it, fed it to a newspaper, and even hired a publicity agent to spruik it. I would also make sure that evidence of his lack of genuine claim was produced to the court, in order to maximise costs that Ashby has to pay. Then we may also see where the money comes from.
Whatever happens, I can’t see News Ltd coming out of this one covered in glory.
The aim: destroy News Ltd and any ltravellers.
Lastly, I would not want to be Christopher Pyne when Slipper regains the Speaker’s Chair. Slipper will owe the government, big time.
Various offices around Parliament should from now on have “No more Mr. Nice Guy” chiselled into their walls. Labor’s enemies should forthwith become aware just how nasty the word “nasty” means.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:55 pm
Fran
We’re on the same page with a lot of this.
But I will point out that offshore processing, followed by a plane flight, is what occurs at present, and what the Malaysian solution would emphasize (as in, if we take our AS from UNHCR camps).
As for numbers, personally, I’m not fussed….but all parties, including the Greens, have accepted the need for some sort of limit.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Fisher was caught in Coles. Not sure about hers, but my Coles has self-serve bays.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:56 pm
BB
As I mentioned in my last post, are you aware if the Commonwealth is purely defending the claim, or have officially filed a counterclaim against Ashby on the basis of what Roxon said last week re claim being vexatious etc?
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:57 pm
In my Inbox
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:58 pm