Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Whoops…insert, apart from the obvious case of refugees who actually make it to our shores, by whatever method!
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Dioo
Or indeed, how much shit should Syria take from Turkey?
The turks ruled Syria for around eight centuries under the Ottoman Empire. Turkey has demonstrated in latter years hegemonic interests in the ME. It was only with the greates difficulty that the US prevented Turkey from invading Iraq. Mr Erdogan has ambitions to be seen as a leader of the Sunnis.
Sould the Sunnis prevail we can expect that other Syrian minority groups are likely to be under the hammer. These include christians. Literally millions of christians were displaced as a result of the Iraq War. There is no reason why islamist extremists amnogst the Sunnies don’t aspire to the same sort of thing in Syria. Apart from the christians, there is a very high chance of an Alawite bloodbath in Syria should the Assad regime fall chaotically.
The turks have spent decades in more-or-less brutal near-genocidal war against turkish Kurds in Turkey, never mind in Syria. This has included systemic attempts to wipe out kurdish identity by assaults on kurdish language and customs.
Kurds form around 10% of the Syrian population. In the circumstances, I imagine they would hardly welcome Syria becoming a turkish client state.
Turkey is now the major conduit for weapons and fighters to the Syrian civil war. The CIA is well-established on the Turkish side of the border with Syria and is vetting the rebels who get are getting arms. It turns out they would prefer not to be arming Al Qaida, even if Al Qaida is on the same side as the CIA. Strange bedfellows.
The arms and ammunition for the Syrian rebels are being funded by such notable democracies as Saudi Arabia.
Turkey has openly canvassed the possibility of establishing a ‘zone’ in Syria. This would, because it would be completely dependent on Turkey, be a de facto client state of Turkey.
The turkish military in particular has lost much of its political pre-eminance since the election of Mr Erdogan. It is clear from Mr Erdogan’s initial response that he did not know about the F4 intruding over Syrian airspace. There have been complaints from both Syria and Turkey of cross-border incidents. Clearly, the last thing the Assad regime needs now is a formal war with Turkey. So, the logical conclusion is that either or both of the turks are shooting into Syria, provocatively, or rebels are shooting in Turkey, trying to provoke a Turkish armed response.
IMHO, it is quite possible that the turkish military is trying to set up a casus belli and is doing so without taking their democratically-elected government into account.
So, the arms for the syrian rebels are being provided by a despotic monarchy.
The F4 was likely a provocation by an out-0f-control military.
Al Qaida is on the side of the turks and the US.
Kurds and christians are highly likely to become mass victims of this process.
What was it you were saying about ‘shit’ again?
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Fisher is a proven thief, who has been caught again.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:59 pm
lenxyz – I explained earlier that I have been with my friend in shops when she has had panic attacks and, yes, it is mostly because of agoraphobia. She just leaves her shopping where she is and hightails it out of the store. I do a bit of explaining and follow her – we go back later is she can.
She has not ever carried a single item out of the store and on occasions left bags with ‘paid’ items in them from other shops which I grab for her. The shop owners have all been considerate so I presume it happens to a lot of people and they are trained to recognise when someone is in distress. Having seen the problem firsthand I do not walk past someone in a shop when they seem to be in difficulty without checking that they need help.
I’m sorry for MJF that she has a problem which seems to be other than ‘panic attack’ in the usual sense. I’m irate that she is blaming others for her predicament.
by BH on Jun 23, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Re Fran’s alternative take on an ALP response am I correct in that she prefers the old pacific solution of indefinite detention on a tiny rock in the pacific to a solution where returned asylum seekers actually live in the community of a functioning rather than facsimile country.
Interesting to note that the UNHCR tentatively approves of the malaysian solution because unlike the tunnel vision of some that are so pure that deaths at sea are simply a price for purity (comfortable western warm slippers and hot chocolate or latte at hand) they hope to use such a deal to actually leech in to the treatment of asylum seekers in Malaysia so that life just doesn’t get better for the lucky ones that win boat lotto but for the other 100,000 stuck in Malaysia as well.
Astrobleme while you are no doubt right of the racist overtones about the AS debate taking 5 ‘browns’ in your words for every one we give back rus counter to your argument.
I am of the ontological bent myself and prefer good for its own sake rather than ‘ends justify the means’ but sometimes one needs to acknowledge the real world and that any hope of a regional solution in the short to mid term requires some pragmatic thinking.
Rather than dismiss the Malaysian solution the Greens might want to work with the government on beefing up the guarantees of better treatment in Malaysia for returnees. In reality if an asylum seeker can obtain fredom from prosecution it doesn’t matter whether it is here or Malaysia.
If the boats stop or slow then a regional engagement where we double our intake from 13,000 to 26,000 or triple to 40,000 and fly in refugees from the region or even from places closer to source conutries is surely a better deal than the present.
And we cant do the increased intake first without addressing the “boats’ issue because it simply wont fly politically and that is the reality.
If we want to increase our humanitarian intake and start the process of ‘un’demonising refugees we need a circuit breaker.
I vote green myself but some greens have their heads so far up their pristine arses they couldn’t see reality if it was travelling naked on a moomba day float.
by gough1 on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:00 pm
guytaur
“Oh one last thing regarding Senator Fisher. I would advise her until she has come to grips with her condition to do as much as her shopping online as possible. Then she need only go to out to socialise having a coffee and the like.”
during possibly the worst of my depression, by this time I couldn’t even drive a car any more, one day I found this little hole in the wall coffee shop waiting for the bus to work run by a Korean woman with the most positive and radiant attitude suddenly I could start come to terms with what was going on for me, all it took was a little trigger like to begin turning my life around.
by Augustus on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:01 pm
McClelland is history. I just got an email from KK telling me what a great job she had done. She was Still a Labor person and would no doubt see me at Community events or Rabbitoh matches. (someone needs to tell the stupid Seppo that Barton is in Dragons territory not Rabbitohs – in any case I have never been to a rabbits match and I can’t imagine she is a big fan of the NRL)
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:01 pm
With Fairfax closing the Canberra Political Office and in the intrest of fare and balanced reporting im commencing my position as the Queanbeyan correspondent. The truth is my sword, bribery my shield and Liberal Victory my mission.
by rummel on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:03 pm
I take it back she is actually on the Souths board
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Fairly obviously, we wouldn’t be accepting 140 million … which is the figure often quoted for displaced persons or even any substantial proportion of that number. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t have a problem with 100-200,000 per year. In practice, over time, I don’t imagine we’d get anywhere near that number if we, in concert with other signatories to MDG and the UN convention on refugees were doing the right things in a global sense.
As a rule of thumb, if Australia has X% of the world’s GDP I’d say we ought in principle to be willing to take X% of the world’s displaced persons. If our per capita income ranks us at 15th in the world, then we ought to be
a) contributing our full commitment under MDG
b) not contributing less than the folks at 16th place
c) not faking our aid by counting stuff that really isn’t aid
by Fran Barlow on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:04 pm
A small bit of news. http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/government-to-apologise-for-forced-adoptions-20120623-20ulf.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
by rishane on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:05 pm
rummel,
“With Fairfax closing the Canberra Political Office and in the intrest of fare and balanced reporting im commencing my position as the Queanbeyan correspondent. The truth is my sword, bribery my shield and Liberal Victory my mission.”
and the royal as my press club.
by Augustus on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Rommel
So the same vision statement as NewsLtd, then?
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Augustus
Congratulations on finding your circuit breaker.
This was the reason I mentioned the socialising aspect that online shopping cuts down on.
I just think getting arrested and all that goes with that cannot help any depression or the Senators condition as described.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Thanks Victoria.
Smells like collusion to me – always did.
by gough1 on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:07 pm
Didn’t The Royal burn down?
by This little black duck on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:08 pm
guytaur
“I just think getting arrested and all that goes with that cannot help any depression or the Senators condition as described.”
But hopefully for MJF it could trigger a catharsis, especially the second time round.
by Augustus on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Lynchpin @ 8047
McClelland is a dud and always has been so. He should never have been appointed AG by Rudd in the first place. He is referred to by some of his colleagues as potato head.
Roxon will be OK I guess. My choice has always been Richard Dreyfus QC – an intelligent moderate successful lawyer who can argue a case very convincingly and has none of the baggage of the NSW Right.
McClelland got his gig as an MP as a result of his father having been a Senator. He also was a dud, a time server, a party hack, who served his time, took his pension, and was “retired” to become High Commissioner in London – what a bludge!!
His latest outpourings are nothing more than a giant dummy spit and tanty because Gillard did the right thing and dumped him as AG. He won’t hold his seat at the next election if current polling trends continue.
by feeney on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:09 pm
No, the truth is its very hard not to write crap about Labor.
by rummel on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:09 pm
augustus
Yes there is always hope
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:09 pm
TLBD
No, someone tried to torch it a month ago but the Fire Brigade got to it very quickly.
by rummel on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:10 pm
@watermelon_man: You’d think, #Leveson and all, the UK Tele wouldn’t have screwed ill Clive James with sensationalised fake “interview”. Wouldn’t you?
Does anyone know about this?
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:11 pm
rummel,
Well done!
by This little black duck on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:11 pm
bw
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-23/climate-expert-says-arctic-warming-twice-as-fast/4088268
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Feeney
I agree – he was great in tin men. Okay in encounters of the third kind too.
by gough1 on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:13 pm
No credit for me… The FRNSW (paid) did the good work.
by rummel on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:13 pm
On the alleged Ashby-News Corp conspiracy
I caught up with BB’s post last night 7615
Is there a “fit and proper” test for pay TV in Australia?
It will be interesting to see how the Stokes interest plays out. He probably has enough to block the News acquisition. He may want Cons for himself. Packer seems to want out
May be interesting to watch the Stokes’ media coverage of all this…
by Laocoon on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Good list to bookmark & come back to in a few months
by Leroy on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:14 pm
I have been out of the media loop
Has Mary Jo F been caught AGAIN??????
by daretotread on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:14 pm
daretotread
Sadly yes
by Augustus on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Pyne already seems to be damaged. He doesn’t jump up so often or is that because Peta is training that lot to be kinder and gentler. Pyne actually asked a question on his portfolio.
I won’t be crying any tears for Pyne if he’s found to be in the thick of all things Ashby.
by BH on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:16 pm
daretotread
Yes, but it’s OK; she announced her retirement from politics about 3 minutes before it became known….
…oh, and apparently it’s all because those nasty police keep arresting her, rather than any actual wrongdoing.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Hahahahahah This was on the Daily Telegraph here too.
@ChristineBohan: Clive James says he’s definitely not about to die and smacks down the journalists who wrote that he was. Great read: http://t.co/smiq1gQZ
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:17 pm
The “via Malaysia ” (with future inclusion of other regional waiting places) approach with direct safe free flights for refugees into Australia seems to be the right way forward.
I am saddened that a few Greens and others prefer the current deadly situation under the excuse that they can wash their hands of any responsibility for ferrying arrangements. There would be no need for such ferries under the Malaysian approach. The reliance on the ferries is a direct result of the actions of the Australian parliament including the Greens. The parliament can choose to make them unnecessary.
by ___cog___ on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:19 pm
The link is from a socialist web site, which I don’t really trust (not liars, but they are very one eyed). However this is of interest. The original BBC blog they quote is here.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/theeditors/2012/06/reporting_conflict_in_syria.html
by Leroy on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:20 pm
guytaur
http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s3492282.htm
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:20 pm
fb
Australia has already entered a mass extinction event and you want to add to the pace and extent of extinctions through increased population pressure at the rate of a million people ever five years.
Phosphorous is almost certainly going to join available irrigation water to form the two limiting factors for Australian food production. Plants need phosphorous. Without added posphates, Australia would grow very, very little food. It would not grow nearly enough food for our current population.
Australian agricultural land is deficient in both soil moisture and phosphorous. Phosphorous is irreplaceable. Once used up, it is used up. And once used up Australian food production will not grow. It will not stay the same. It will plummet to very, very low levels.
The notion of adding a million people to our population every five years, plus whatever offspring they have, and their offspring etc, etc, appears to combine ideological sincerity with rather extreme environmental ignorance.
Or perhaps we should be looking to import more food from Africa or Asia?
It really does concern me that the reds part of the Greens watermelon demonstrate such blithe ignorance of the green part of the Greens.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Re: Mary Jo Fisher.
Danny Lewis said that MJ had a “granny” trolley – I assume that is a shopping jeep (in the old jargon).
It’s understandable if she had a panic attack that she wouldn’t leave her shopping jeep behind.
by kezza2 on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:21 pm
feeney – it’s Mark Dreyfus QC and yes, he is terrific just as Roxon, former Associate to a High Court judge is. She comes hugely recommended by top brass in the legal profession so we are lucky that Labor has people of such quality available.
Gough1 – good post re AS. Might be worth sending similar to SHY to see if will help her and Milne to make some realistic decisions. We have to start somewhere better than the present position.
by BH on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:22 pm
The Greens and their supporters can bleat, scream foul play, tear everthing asunder all to no avail.
There is only one reality;
Innocent people are dead….men, women, children.
Bob Brown, Christine Milne and the truly repulsive Hanson-Young helped bring it about. That they did it in association with Abbott and Morrison should serve only to magnify the shame they should, but wont, be feeling. Being of the Christian faith Abbott and Morrison will assuage their consciences by means of it all being Gods Will. How the Greens ease theirs, should they find one, is anyones guess.
I’ve racked my brain and I can’t think of another confluence of the corrupt, in handstep with the righteously arrogant, to visit such cruel despair on the weak, the vulnerable and dispossessed. In essence the Greens, with the enthusiastic backing of the LNP, have said to them….
” …if don’t have any money, stay in your camp or your country. We’ll get to you sooner or later. If you have money? Pay for passage on a boat. If you have a successful journey the Australian Government will look after you. Should you choose an ill equipped, unseaworthy vessel with an untrained crew….well, thats just too bad….after all it’s Gods Will……isn’t it?
The added bonus to this is while some young Australian, doing their duty, pulls corpses out of the sea as others give human comfort to the traumatised, the Greens and the LNP can deny any culpability, sheet the blame home to the Labor Government, and presumably, sleep well.
I remember the words of my father when disgusted beyond all belief,
“.the rotten bloody bastards……..the rotten bloody bastards”
I feel the same.
by Ian on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:22 pm
Cog
Agreed, the ultra pure view which rejects any accountability for its consequences in action borders on the callous and the cruel.
by gough1 on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:23 pm
gough1@8164
Yes indeed.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:24 pm
I guess being caught a second time confirms she REALLY has a mental illness.
I was inclined to think that originally she was just a common thief and used mental illness to get of being sentenced, but to repeat the offence clearly is an indication of mental illness of some kind.
by daretotread on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Ian
BS. Until Australia is responsible for boat safety in Indonesia your rant is baseless.
If you are so concerned about people drowning write to your local member and get them to advocate a policy of flying refugees asylum seekers here direct.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Re: Mary Jo Fisher..
And it’s also understandable that she wouldn’t empty out her shopping jeep prior to leaving the store. She’d just leave.
by kezza2 on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:26 pm
Sigh. Troll Labor Man is back. Echoing Hartcher about the blood on the hands of JGPM but blissfully, duplicitously and hypocritically ignorant of the fact that Kevin, Maxine, Robert et al. are conspiring to spill a little blood of their own.
by C@tmomma on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:27 pm
guytaur
flying them here directly is exactly what will happen under the Malaysian solution.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:28 pm
guytaur @ 8193
You really do live in cloud coo coo land.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:31 pm
zoomster
No wrong. People arrive by boat are flown to Malaysia.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:31 pm
g
Thanks for the link. Good interview on the whole but I think his statement that 1-2m rise in sea level by the end of the century is unlikely to come true. It will probably be .5-1m, IMHO.
I thought he made the point well that observations in the Arctic were outstripping the modelled predictions. Must be something wrong with the models, eh?
He did not mention the methane release that has started.
IMHO, one of the reasons why the modelled predictions for icemelt in the Arctic are too conservative is that they did not include the albedo-reducting impact of all that soot lyiing on the snow and ice. There is no indication that soot production is diminishing.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:32 pm