Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
Page 1 of 3 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
3rdborn
The Greens are petulant, puerile and immature. They’d rather see people die than try a reasonable solution to prevent it, while Blind Freddie can see that an agreed regional solution is the best way to handle it.
But SHY bleats her platitudes and takes no responsibility at all. Time they grew up and entered the real World.
by muttleymcgee on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:32 pm
TH
Well tell me Mister when did Australia take over safety standards for Indonesian Boats?
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:33 pm
guytaur
and we take more people from Malaysia and fly them here.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:34 pm
It is a pity that Ms Fisher is the only mentally unwell person to exit parliament. The monomaniacal Mr Abbott should go now as well.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Ahmen. Lib and/or Labor Policy will stop the boats and the deaths. The green ferry/fairy service will lead to constant deaths at sea. But as SHY said, accidents do happen. When greens are chasing ideological purity collateral damage is accepted just ask Keven and the ETS.
The greens are the party of hypoventilation because they constantly talk but never take action.
by rummel on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:35 pm
guytaur
You are quite sensible on most matters, but your stance on asylum seekers is baffling. I dont like the Malaysia deal very much, but life is about reality to idealism
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Here’s the same thing on the Newspoll issues and leader personality traits from July/August to Now that I did with Essential. Pretty much the same picture:
ALP:
Health + Medicare: -6
Education: -6
The Economy: -1
National Security: -3
Asylum Seekers: -8
Interest Rates: +1
Industrial Relations: -6
Climate Change +3
Gillard:
Experienced: -9
Decisive and Strong: -14
Has a vision for Australia: -15
Understands the major issues: -17
Cares for People: -11
Arrogant: +9
Likable: -22
In touch with voters: -28
Trustworthy: -17
Gillard on issues:
Economy: -6
Naitonal Security: 0
Health and Medicare: -12
Education: -9
Asylum Seekers: -6
Climate Change: -3
Coalition:
Health + Medicare: +5
Education: +5
The Economy: -1
National Security: +2
Asylum Seekers: +5
Interest Rates: -1
Industrial Relations: +7
Climate Change +4
Abbott:
Experienced: -5
Decisive and Strong: -5
Has a vision for Australia: -7
Understands the major issues: -7
Cares for People: -7
Arrogant: +3
Likable: -6
In touch with voters: -3
Trustworthy: -4
on issues:
Economy: +2
Naitonal Security: +1
Health and Medicare: +9
Education: +4
Asylum Seekers: 0
Climate Change: +8
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/120208%20Issues.pdf
http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/120401%20Personalities.pdf
by spur212 on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:36 pm
I wonder if the Ashby case goes down what I might for shorthand call the “Jackson route”, whether the independents would support the return of Slipper before the conclusion of the court proceedings…
by Laocoon on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:36 pm
zoomster
My comment stands. Yours does not negate a fact by adding another fact.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:36 pm
…and if the Malaysian solution does, as is expected, ‘stop the boats’ then the only AS arrivals will be by plane…
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:39 pm
guytaur
you are on a hiding to nothing sticking to the Greens policy on AS.
To have flights to Australia of AS you need to have offshore processing – which is a direct contradiction of Greens policy.
And all the posturing over how hateful it is in Malaysia for refugees, the Malaysian deal was the first part of a regional solution for the world refugee problem.
As you know, Thailand is interested in being part of a regional solution.
While Myanmar may have had democratic elections, there is still ongoing violence against minority groups. And the Thais bear the brunt of this.
All the refugees will be processed offshore by the UNHCR.
The Greens really have no further argument.
btw, I certainly don’t think for one minute that you don’t care about the latest, tragic crop of drownees. Not for a nanosecond, in fact.
by kezza2 on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:39 pm
Laocoon
The Ashby case is due to be heard on the 23 July. Apart from sitting for four days next week, parliament does not return until the 14 August i believe. Plenty of time for Slipper to return by then.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Guytaur
You cant really make this an indonesian issue, surely.
The questions are “where were the boats heading?” and “Are they still as likely to head there under a different policy setting whereby they are taken to Malaysia?”
by gough1 on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:41 pm
victoria
I have not made comments on yes or no to the Malaysie solution working. Others just assume it.
The comments I am making are on one simple fact. It is unsafe boats that sink.
Australia is not in charge of Indonesin Boat safety or the competence of the crews on these vessels.
Therefore anyone in Australia falling for the we are to blame for drownings meme are falling for dog whistling.
If you do not want people drowning on unsafe boats the alternatives are clear.
Safe boats or direct flights.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:42 pm
OC,
Not sure where you are coming from with this. Barton, occupied by McLelland, is definitely in St George territory (Rockdale, Kogarah, Carlton etc) while KK’s soon to be ex-seat, where I reside, is Heffron, which takes in Mascot, Botany, Rosebery, Zetland etc. Very definitely South Sydney. And you are right. She is on Souths board. Most local polititans – Brereton, Albanese, Grusovin, Vic Smith and some not so locals like Nick Greiner tend to be on that board, whether it be a genuine love for the team (which I suspect is the case in her instance) or an identity thing. The exception to the rule was, of course, Bob Carr, who as Premier and local member sat back and took no interest as the local NRL team was booted. Real man of the people, our Bob.
By the way. Seppo is a very bogan term.
by Roy Orbison on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:46 pm
Victoria
Thanks – that makes sense.
Hope he gets back soon, partly to see a more controlled House again, but mainly to see the vengeance being wreaked from the Chair – which surely will be something to behold
by Laocoon on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:48 pm
gough1
Indonesian Boat Safety is an Indonesian Issue.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:49 pm
Roy Orbison (I remember going to Festival Hall to see you for my 17th birthday!!)
And racist.
by kezza2 on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:49 pm
It’s amusing to watch the rigid conservatism and inflexibility of the Greens supporters when it comes to asylum seekers.
For a political party, ostensibly founded on a philosophy of protecting the environment, they appear to be blissfully ignorant of the effects on the fragile environment of Australia, the driest continent on earth, of an unending intake of refugees, apparently until there is not one single refugee left in the world to find a new home for.
Well, good luck with that one, for all I can see is refugees as far as the eye can see to beyond the horizon, replaced every day with a new batch from a new conflict somewhere in the world.
I know the kumbayah premise of The Greens is ‘Peace, Love and Organic Mung Beans’, however that conveniently turns a blind eye to the fact that conflict still keeps stubbornly occurring at various places around the world, and, IMHO, will only get worse as the wars of competition for increasingly scarce global resources start ramping up.
Not only that, but as I have read the recalcitrant missives from guytaur and Miss I Swallowed a Dictionary But I Haven’t Figured Out How to Regurgitate It Coherently or Succinctly Barlow, I am struck by the blinkered conception of what the Asylum Seeker problem entails and how we should structure our refugee intake.
According to their reasoning, we should only take asylum seekers from Indonesia, but, I will admit that, when pressed, they agree that we should maybe take some from elsewhere, however, essentially their basic premise is that if an asylum seeker can get a plane to Indonesia then they should be provided with another plane ticket which has ‘Bound for Australia’ stamped on it. Again, blissfully ignorant of the millions of refugees around the world who can’t afford a plane ticket to Indonesia.
I mean, if there’s one thing that struck me as a take out from ‘Go Back Where You Came From”, it was the abject misery of the refugees in the African asylum seeker camps and how deserving of our empathy they were. Just as much as any relatively wealthy asylum seeker who has made it to Indonesia, often not even spending one day in a refugee camp.
So, basically, until the supporters of the Greens policy wrt asylum seekers can explain to me why a party who wishes not to see the environment of Australia unduly stressed is advocating a ‘come one, come all’ perspective, and why they are blinkered to the claims of indigent refugees elsewhere than Indonesia, then I will be unable to take anything they have to say seriously.
Effectively resolve the dichotomy in your party’s basic raisón détre, and how it applies to your asylum seeker policy and you’ve got me.
by C@tmomma on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:52 pm
C@tmomma @ 7783
I am way behind and trying to catch up on today’s posts, but this one is a standout.
Of course a simpler explanation might be that what McKew says is the truth. But in the parallel universe of PB, such simple explanations are not even considered. No, it has to be a sinister conspiracy and all lies.
Bob Hogg by the way, is a former State Secretary of the Victorian Branch of the ALP and a former National Secretary. He, like Maxine McKew, is very well connected. Much better I would venture to suggest, than anyone on PB. Between them they would have a very good picture of what transpired.
But it does not fit the dominant meme on PB so it must be dismissed out of hand.
by bemused on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:58 pm
catmomma
My posts have been about the safety of those getting here from Indonesia to Australia.
This because I contend that the tragic drowning is being used as a dog whistle by the MSM and right wing politicians.
So I have been busy pointing out that Boats and their safety are not an Australia problem but really are an Indonesian one.
Therefore no matter what policy Australia has. Either the current mandatory onshore system or another off shore one that has no bearing on the subject of drowning at sea.
We must separate the issues so we can discuss settlement by refugees by whatever means in a rational calm manner. IF we do not the dog whistle will rule all.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 2:58 pm
GG
He’s as thick skinned as Abbott, I watch Abbott in the HOR and the insults just wash over his head!, it is impossible to insult him!.
by 1934pc on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:00 pm
I am disappointed in Latika Posted after Abbott i.v..
by lizzie on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Albo on 24 now
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Re: Steve Lewis.
I assume Lewis (honorific deliberately omitted to get up Uhlman’s nose) is talking about not releasing documents (to protect his sources), because so far he has only been subpoenaed to do that, hasn’t he – not to appear?
I’ll be interested to see Lewis’ stance if he is subpoenaed to appear, though. If he doesn’t, he’ll be in contempt of court.
Journos, by their very nature, refuse to answer questions regarding sources.
What will the judge rule?
Remember the court case in the US (not sure if any US case law serves as a precedent in Aus) regarding the outing of a CIA agent.
One of the journos was sent to jail for not revealing a source. Even though she pleaded the 1st Amendment, it was argued that
I’d assume this action by Ashby could not be considered anything else but a federal proceeding.
Journalist Jailed For Not Revealing Source to Court:
http://articles.latimes.com/2005/jul/07/nation/na-reporters7
by kezza2 on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:04 pm
spur212
Who are they phoning?, some insane institution!.
by 1934pc on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Kezza2
Lewis had already admitted in a radio interview that he had been in contact with Ashby for some time
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:06 pm
guytaur – perhaps you could ask SHY and Milne to settle the refugee issue in a rational and calm manner by not playing politics and dogwhistling that the Greens are the only party with the solution.
The time for dogwhistling by any Party is over. All have to compromise so contact your party and help get them started.
by BH on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:06 pm
guytaur 8182 linked to an article in the UK Telegraph where Clive James contradicts reports of his imminent death.
The interesting question is “how could this be reported so wrong?” and James explains in a way that is handy to remember and keep in mind when reading public statements.
Clive James understands this but lots of other people (journos, pollies and us included) do not understand it.
by Phil Vee on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Guytaur
I fail to understand your dog whistle reference. I’d imagine that a fair portion of the racist demographic sees the boat going down as a positive.
by gough1 on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:06 pm
kezza
It is worse than that for Lewis. As many, most notably BB have pointed out Lewes has already revealed his source. He published Ashby’s name.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:06 pm
guytaur
nonsense. Make the boats unnecessary and the problem of their seaworthiness or otherwise vanishes.
The condition of the boats is only a problem because people are using them to try and get to Australia.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:07 pm
1943pc – Nah, they just take the poll inside the Press Gallery and shockjock land.
by BH on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:08 pm
gough
Not the dog whistle Abbott is running. Rather he is running the Its the Gillard Government at Fault.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:09 pm
BH
After the Government and the Greens stop getting blamed for deaths by drowning at sea.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:10 pm
zoomster
Thus the dog whistle of the Coalition works.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:10 pm
interesting to see who else breaks ranks on both sides
http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/international/2012-06-23/weather-hampers-search-for-asylum-boat-survivors/965852
Political deadlock
Meanwhile backbench MPs from both major parties say they are willing to participate in bi-partisan talks aimed at breaking the political deadlock on border protection.
Liberal backbencher Judi Moylan, a long-time refugee advocate, says she is horrified more people have died trying to flee danger and a political solution must be negotiated.
“Just saying that we’re going to stop the boats is simply not enough,” she said.
Independent MP Tony Windsor has flagged gathering a group of MPs from across the parliament to try to break the political stalemate.
Ms Moylan says she would be happy to participate, as would Labor MP Steve Georganas.
“Of course it would have to be cleared by our caucus but I’m sure that as I said anything that would bring us closer to a solution I would love to be a part of,” she said.
The proposal also has the backing of independent MP Rob Oakeshott.
The Liberal Party’s Mal Washer is calling on the coalition to consider all options, including Labor’s Malaysia solution.
But Amnesty International’s campaign officer Hannah Harborow says that is not the answer.
“There needs to be a regional solution. The Australian Government and the opposition needs to work with our northern neighbours – needs to work with Indonesia and Malaysia on a regional solution and this isn’t short ad hoc solutions like we’ve seen in the past like the Malaysia deal or Nauru or Manus Island,” she said.
“There’s no quick fix here, this is a long-term solution that’s needed.”
by womble on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:11 pm
Boerwar 8151 re Turkey/Syria/
___________________________
I read and agreed with your long but excellent posting re these matters
The hypocrisy of the Western powers is astounding
Hardly a peep from Lady Clinton or O-Bomb-a re the attacks on the democratic forces in Egypt at this moment,but an alliance with the awful Saudis and Qatar and the Egyptian military
However watchimng the millions on the march in Cairo last night makes me feel that the revolutionary forces at work Eqypt are unstopable
BTW..Cameron in the UK planned it seems a military strike against that vessel carrying the repaired Russian helicopters back to Syria…and on the North Sea no less
In the end he didn’t and the Russian ship has returned to it’s home port….but a new vessel flying the Russian flag will undertake the voyage and I quess Cameron won’t make an attack that one
by deblonay on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:13 pm
womble @8236,
I would suggest Abbott is more concerned about the breaking of ranks on his side than labor at this point in time.
I think the statement by Abbott today reflects that.
Labor is prepared to use Nauru, review the effectiveness of TPV’s.
Abbott, nothing.
Watch his backbench for rumbles.
by Doyley on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Sorry, guytaur, saying that people are drowning because they want to come to Australia isn’t a dog whistle but a fact.
You can ask the refugees why they get on the boats, and that’s what they’ll tell you.
Remove the connection – as the Malaysian solution does – between getting on the boats and coming to Australia, and the condition of the boats doesn’t matter, because people aren’t using them to get here.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:15 pm
bemused
And, an even simpler reason is that Gillard & Swan convinced Rudd to shelve the ETS in late 2009 – because it was never going to pass going to pass the lower house – in preparation for a DD to be announced at the resumption of parliament in late Jan/early Feb 2010.
McKew, a lowly backbencher, would not have been privvy to any of the machinations.
Unfortunately, while Gillard and Swan thought they had talked Rudd into a long Christmas break in preparation for a swiftly-called and swift election campaign at the resumption of parly in 2010, to their dismay he’d spent the hols writing about his cat and dog with a playschool presenter.
He baulked at a DD, in direct contradiction to the “biggest moral challenge of our time”.
Gillard and Swan tried their best to cover for a leader who couldn’t make a decision.
Get over it!
by kezza2 on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Safe boats? Like the one that crashed against the rocks at Christmas Island? What you need in your scheme is safe boats, fine weather and experienced and caring crew. Even then you need more than an ounce of luck to make the voyage without incident.
You are fixed on the quality of the boats as if a seaworthy boat will end the drownings. That is absurd. The best way to minimise drownings is to remove the advantage people have if they make the journey successfully by boat. Then the only drownings will be the freak once in a lifetime event of a plane load of genuine refugees crashing into the sea on their way to a new life in Australia.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Yeah, but I reckon the bigger fish is Brough.
by kezza2 on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:16 pm
Post 8225…1934pc
____________
The strength of suppport for Lib policies on Health and Educ in that poll is not all that surprising
It shows how absolutely divorced from this govt the voters are and how much they loathe Gillard
They will not listen to Gillard or Swan… that is the evidence from that poll
so what is to be done ??
The idiotic notion that all will improve after July 1 will soon be disproved I think
by deblonay on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:18 pm
kezza2
Bigger fish will include Brough and quite a few others too.
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:18 pm
zoomster
The dog whistle is saying we Australians should feel guilty for the vessels they use to get here.
They do not in the US. They do not in Europe.
Why should we feel guilty for the condition of the vessels. We as a country have done all we can for the ones in trouble. More than Indonesia the country they were closest to.
That is the dog whistle. Address the numbers coming in separately.
It truly is Indonesia with the Boat Safety issue, not Australia.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:19 pm
kezza2/victoria
Including, who is funding the action??
by Laocoon on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:20 pm
TH
I never said there would be no drownings. That is as silly as saying their will be no car accidents.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:20 pm
Laocoon
Sure hope so!
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:21 pm
guytaur
we do not feel guilty for the condition of the boats.
We don’t want people dying trying to get to our country.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 3:22 pm