Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Onshore processing is cloud cuckoo stuff. It means get here however you can and we will hug you. Except if you drown.
So we need an offshore solution to facilitate the travel to Australia to be processed onshore.
This can be by Malaysia style solution, which also has the deterrent of try it and fly away, or a ferry service from Jakarta all aboard.
Even the ferry service would need some kind of offshore processing, or would people form a queue?
by ruawake on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:51 pm
Centre:
So you hold Rudd and Gillard responsible for the loss of lives at sea when the ALP changed the asylum seeker laws in 2007-8 and there was an increase in boats?
If not, why is the current situation the fault of the Greens and Coalition but the previous situation is not the fault of the ALP.
Could it be that you always blame the non-ALP and never blame the ALP perhaps?
by Mod Lib on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:51 pm
So in Latika’s world, if Gillard or Bowen had have held a press conference first, the onus would be on the opposition to give in.
Not to mention the fact that there’s no mention that Abbott can’t do anything if he ever becomes PM on this issue without bipartisan support to change the migration act (which he would never get due to him setting the precedent)
I don’t usually comment on journos comments, but this one was too much.
by spur212 on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:51 pm
Gary:
I agree, it is likely to come down to the high 50s soon.
I can live with that.
by Mod Lib on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:52 pm
The problem for Tone is that the AS issue could end up being one of the few issues he has left by the time the next election comes around.
by Gary on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Pegasus
There’d be a lot more sympathy for your father if Israel had a more sympathetic attitude towards Palestine, but it doesn’t. Very much the opposite.
In the meantime, trying to get through to the Greens is like arguing with a know-all, idealistic 13 year old, who knows everything about nothing and who won’t see any way through, just the end result they want to the exclusion of all else.
SHY is a perfect example – she refuses to compromise but will take no responsibility for her actions.
There is onshore processing right now! But desperate people keep dying at sea because there is hope they will make it to Australia. Malaysia reduces that hope but the Greens are too idealistic and narrow minded to compromise on the way to a better solution.
Maybe it is time you rethought your attitude along with your Greens membership and addressed a possible, real world situation.
by muttleymcgee on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Glib, hubrious BS.
by Gary on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:53 pm
hubrious = hubris
by Gary on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:54 pm
Mod Lib
You want to fix it for real, stop that GRUB of a leader of yours from making it a political issue.
Abbott and Milne, as bad as each other. What a disgrace!
by Centre on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:54 pm
BB,
My mum is a solid Liberal supporter, has been all her life but last election she voted Greens because she just doesn’t trust Tony Abbott and felt that Howard had conned her.
I am wondering if Abbott has run his race and people will see that for all his posturing he hasn’t actually said or done anything except for waving his big swinging budgie around.
by Augustus on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:54 pm
Pegasus, NormanK
Thank you for your posts.
Some people are posting with logic and feeling. Others are just being provocative. I don’t think accusing others of lying is helpful and it’s sad that we are fighting when our real opponent is Abbott the non-action Man.
by lizzie on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:54 pm
ru
The problem wit Offshore processing which many here are gleefully ignoring.
One as Nauru demonstrated numbers of refugees here will increase if the destination is ultimately Australia.
Two Australia has signed the refugee convention. Whatever solution is found has to abide by that treaty. Otherwise Australia has to exit the Treaty.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:54 pm
I am perfectly happy with Abbott and Milne opposing rendition of children to Malaysia thank you very much.
It is a pity there is no-one in the ALP with a slither of a conscience who will stand up against this policy too.
by Mod Lib on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:56 pm
Round and round and round we go
by The Finnigans on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:56 pm
Gary:
As I have said many times before, many here are very sore losers.
You will have lots of practice to improve this defect in coming years, so I hope you try.
by Mod Lib on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:57 pm
You voted for Howard you hypocrite.
by Gary on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:57 pm
You look at the past trends of voting in state and federal elections
and why is is not good news for tony abbott or the coalition supporters
The nsw and qld governments were in power for over 10 years
and in the federal arena before 2007, the labor and coalition governments were in power for more then 10 years
Despite opinion polls in the federal arena claiming the current government of the day will lose in a a landslide if elections were held on opinion polling weekends
The government of the day were voted for an average of 4 terms
the current labor governemnt has 2 more terms left
by Meguire Bob on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:58 pm
The most sensible comment of the afternoon.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:58 pm
More glib BS. Anything else?
by Gary on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:58 pm
guytaur
Do you think the nuclear threat would be successful in halting the wars on PB? After all, we have to start somewhere.
by lizzie on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:59 pm
You voted for Kim “Tampa: yeah, me too” Beazley….I assume.
by Mod Lib on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:59 pm
The Polling puzzle, are they for real.
http://archiearchive.wordpress.com/2012/06/23/the-polling-puzzle/
by Gaffhook on Jun 23, 2012 at 4:59 pm
No, I think we have achieved equipoise here!
by Mod Lib on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:00 pm
I’m not the one calling everone else hypocites here. You are.
by Gary on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:00 pm
spur212
I have been following Latika for a long time, but her contributions over the past few weeks have been truly pathetic
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:01 pm
Sore loser was the term I used.
I am not sure your posts are refuting that claim very effectively to be honest…
by Mod Lib on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:01 pm
Mod Lib
You support the Party that relies on boat people as an issue to win votes. Is there anything more moronic than that?
NO
If your crocodile tears are legit, you need help!
by Centre on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:01 pm
Isn’t it great to make such a great rhetorical point?
I win, you lose.
Yay, let’s go out and celebrate.
And there’s where you lose it, zoom
You make out that you’re so tolerant.
And, I’m sure you’ve taught your students to argue the point rather than make fun of your opponents.
But you can’t resist in the end.
by kezza2 on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:02 pm
Can I draw your attention to the post you made 3 minutes before this one:
by Mod Lib on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:02 pm
Classic phoney argument: we have a local solution that will almost immediately start to save lives, but we’re not supporting it because it doesn’t solve ALL the world’s problems. So we end up doing…. precisely nothing.
It’s the same as the anti-Carbon Tax argument: us doing something won’t make much of a difference, so let’s do nothing until we can solve carbon emission everywhere.
You have to start somewhere.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:03 pm
What are you talking about? Why the change of issue?
by Gary on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:03 pm
Very true, but rendition of children to a third country is not an acceptable start IMO.
by Mod Lib on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Pegausus
I am not asking anything unreasonable. The malaysian model is a real world attempt at a a solution.
My second point is also not a character attack. It is a trait demonstrated on here and in other places. I acknowledge it makes it difficult for the leadership of the greens to negotiate as any compromise is often seen as a betrayal.
You said it yourself – no onshore processing – no greens for you.
Its a reality for the leadership as they appear to be hamstrung by a fair percentage of its membership.
But imagine if the Greens actually leveraged their political power. It could support a malaysian solution if, one or some or all of the following occurred
(a) Beef up protections/conditions for returned refugees to Malaysia.
(b) require all present on shore detainess to be integrated into the community within [ x ] days bar those with security issues
(c) Re security assessments – demand quicker results.
(d) propose implementation/consideration inheritance tax
(e) Get ALP to commit to pursuing Dibbs tax on financial transactions in international forums
etc etc etc.
by gough1 on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:05 pm
lizzie
The nuclear threat is there and the wars on PB seem to rage on.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:06 pm
Are you stupid Guytaur, or just stupid?
The Malaysian Solution drastically reduces, if not cancels any chance of getting here, in the short or long term. You’ve done your dough and you get nothing for it.
Malaysia will dry up boats almost overnight, once the news filters through. It WAS already working in anticipation, which is why the Coalition hates it so much.
There is nothing romantic about paying your life savings to drown at sea. A boat can go down in five minutes. We’d have to have hundreds of vessels out there waiting for disasters to even have a chance of reducing drownings.
Jesus wept…
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:06 pm
There’s no good getting on here and bleating that everyone else is a hypocrite on the AS issue while clearly being one yourself. End of story.
by Gary on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:08 pm
guytaur
That was meant to be a joke – unless you think William is a nuclear threat, perhaps.
by lizzie on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:09 pm
(f) increase mining tax
(g) fast-track Gonski
by gough1 on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:11 pm
* There will never be a perfect solution for the AS problem.
* As long as there are conflicts in this world, there will always be refugees and they will always want to come to paradise by boats or by planes
* To get a “sensible solution” you need a tri-partisan agreement and regional co-operations
Other than that it is just all farting in the wind
by The Finnigans on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Mod Lib,
So your prefernce is they die at sea.
How very Liberal of you.
by Greensborough Growler on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:12 pm
kezza
yes, funnily enough, after arguing the same points with someone for half the day, providing reasoned responses to posts calling me a liar, as bad as Tony Abbott, etc etc, when it becomes obvious the person I’m dealing with is just plain silly, I treat them that way.
Tolerance has its limits.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:13 pm
BB
What is stupid is thinking that refugees are suddenly going to stop. Refugees will keep on coming as long as there is war, famine and other natural disasters.
Malaysia will help perhaps with a few for the reasons you give. However what about the next who may be the lucky lotto winning one to arrive after the last has flown to Malaysia? The next and the next?
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:14 pm
What’s to consider? They should just accept him and let Australia get on with real issues.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:15 pm
Anyone reduced to using the term ‘rendition’ automatically loses the argument.
You know who you are.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:16 pm
GG:
You are a supporter of Machievelli I see!
by Mod Lib on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:16 pm
If the Labor Party adopted Hanson-Young’s policy they would score a primary vote of about 15% at an election.
by Centre on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:16 pm
Finns:
Yep.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:16 pm
Guytaur
If we reach 800 to Malaysia, they’d happily snap up another 800 for 4000 swap and again and again.
I’d imagine Thailand willl sign up to similar deals. In the end it will work
by gough1 on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:17 pm
zoomster
It takes two to tango. It takes two to argue and debate. Think about your postings a bit.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:17 pm
Centre:
Dio posted the betting odds earlier. Labor on $7. Surely now is the time to buy!
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:17 pm