Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
meanwhile in the urban jungle ………………
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
Wild life in Bradfield, NSW – http://twitpic.com/9zhcc0/full
by The Finnigans on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:18 pm
Puff
Agree.
by lizzie on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:18 pm
gough1
I think you are wrong. I think you are wrong because otherwise Malaysia would have accepted more in the first place.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:18 pm
guytaur
noone here is saying that refugees are going to stop coming.
What we’re arguing is that they will stop coming by boat, and that that will reduce the number of people dying to get here.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:18 pm
ModLib
Where would you start?
You never have an answer. Always a question.
That’s why I said
Julia Gillard has a very elegant solution to this problem.
Maybe you don’t want to read about it.
But, that’s your problem.
by kezza2 on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:18 pm
Just received an email from my cousin
Said its very depresding place, he fears massive job loses, people regretting big tome who they voted for already,
Very flat every thing has stopped
Public servants, teacher nurses scared to put a foot wrong.
You may think i am talking about greece
No qld.
He says so sad people talking of leaving
Said keep abbott out
Of course the libs will think this is a fairy tale
Wish i could pri t email but would not do that.
Rummel hope your d
by my say on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:19 pm
fess, poor Diog is still in the fetal position losing $500 to me
by The Finnigans on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:20 pm
guytaur
It won’t matter if the boats keep coming – you will never hear about it if it isn’t a political issue.
The Greens get it, but like their bestest friend the environment ever had, they are just as guilty of playing politics.
Shame on the Greens, they’re pure dirty.
by Centre on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:21 pm
[Said its very depresding place, he fears massive job loses, people regretting big tome
my say, ah Queendsland, beautiful one day, hell the next
by The Finnigans on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:22 pm
CH10 reporting earthquake in NSW
by lizzie on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:23 pm
Finns:
I know Dio is usually wRONg, but I think on the odds and securing a winner that he might be rIGHt.
$7 for Labor to win the next election is VERY attractive odds!
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:24 pm
Just in regards to the Greens party, I find their position on Assange hypocritical.
They’re defending him while ignoring the sexual harassment charges against him and deriding those making the claims as ‘radical feminists’ in order to score some points at the ALP’s expense.
Shame on them
by spur212 on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:25 pm
c@tmomma said:
It’s by no means clear that you belong with us. That’s your basic problem. You seem to be a reflexive cultural conservative and your demographic is already well catered for in the polity by the major parties.
Our party caters to those who are keen on equity, social justice, sustainability and peace. Sometimes people become keen on those things. Yet most Greens I know would prefer those who aren’t keen on those things to stay with the major parties or else please themselves.
You don’t like our policies? That’s a matter for you. We like our policies because in our opinion, they are coherent and meet the above principles. Unlike the ALP, we are never going to have to justify ourselves to reactionaries.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Still, no reason to make fun of your antagonist, especially when you call in your experience as a teacher.
Otherwise, I make no comment.
by kezza2 on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:25 pm
zoomster
The arguments you make about people not taking boats are flawed. This is because there will always be a next one. People smugglers that need the money will always be there to transport them.
While I personally believe in a regional solution working towards a global solution eventually. Note that eventually may be a very very long time. I do not believe in mandatory detention. I think this was a very big labor mistake. I do not believe in off shore processing. I believe that is just duck shoving our problems onto our neighbours. What I do believe in is getting countries in the region together to organise resettling people once they have been processed in the camp in the country they are in. The way you do it is easy. You make it regional. That way if someone arrives in the regional refugee region of countries signed up to the refugee convention then they get processed and put into the country most able to take them. This means getting all the Asean members signed up to the refugee convention.
They arrive they end up in Indonesia, Malaysia, whatever Asean country can take them. Some would get to be in Australia and New Zealand.
The point is the processing would happen at Indonesia and Malaysia and Thailand. Any that got past them by boat would get processed in Australia however they would have the same chance of ending up in Malaysia or Indonesia as someone from a camp in that country.
This does not work with just Australia and Malaysia signed up.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Yep, guytaur.
You don’t know what the policies you support actually are, but whatever they are you support them to the hilt.
(I went and looked at the Greens policy on this. Have you, yet?)
As soon as someone challenges you to actually back up what you’re saying, you resort to insults.
You shift goalposts almost from post to post, rather than admit that you’ve made an error.
You ignore questions you’ve been asked, one presumes because you either can’t answer them or because the answers make you uncomfortable.
You cheerfully parrot lines you can’t then explain or back up with argument, whilst accusing others of hackery.
My own take on all of this is that you’re very young. You’ve signed up to the Greens and can’t look at them with any objectivity.
I don’t have a problem with Greens, as such – fran and Astro are (usually) good value.
But too many of their followers appear to accept pronouncements from on high without question, and thus can’t defend them when questioned.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Connie, what’s the hurry?
Labor at $7 beautiful, we might get $8.
by Centre on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:29 pm
Chip on shoulder, much, kezz?
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:29 pm
we accepted 150,000 Indo Chinese refugees after the ‘Nam War. there’s no dog whistling, outcries etc bcs we’d bipartisan & regional coops
by The Finnigans on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:29 pm
I said earlier that the Greens are not a party of government, therefore they don’t have to take consistent, rational, logical, or even practical positions on issues. Witness Bob Brown’s populist stance on cutting corporate taxes, contrary to his own party’s policy.
I find the conflating of Assange’s position with that of David Hicks’ especially revolting, however.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:30 pm
Mod Lib @ 8364
I’m not sure about that. The Labor FC Supporters Club would have to have a team in the game before you could call them sore losers.
by Frankie V. on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:32 pm
Horsey, you shouldnt make this a too personal issue.
The world after WW2 is so much different from the world today
by The Finnigans on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:32 pm
zoomster
Nope you are wrong in your analysis try again.
One of those reasons is you have been one of those making assumptions.
You have a concrete image in your head of what a Green must be.
Therefore you do not see arguments in any way that are put unless they fit that image you have in your head of what a Green must be.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:32 pm
Centre:
I’m tipping movement at the station in the next 4-6 weeks, and that subsequently the odds will narrow (along with the polls).
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:33 pm
Mick Collins @ 8042,
Go back to the original interview. Remember the “er, um, ah, no … specific knowledge…”.
Dunno if during the long pause that preceded “specific” there was any head-wobbling – I heard the interview on the radio.
Victoria and Confessions, zactly
by fiona on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:33 pm
fb
There is nothing sustainable about increasing Australia’s population by a million people every five years.
Nothing sustainable at all.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:33 pm
I have posted a link to this Greens media release before. Obviously some here have not bothered to read it as it would expose their memes for the bs they are.
Here are some excerpts but it needs to be read in its entirety. This request will no doubt be ignored by those who really do not want to avail themselves of the true picture about Greens Party asylum seeker and refugees policy position.
http://sarah-hanson-young.greensmps.org.au/content/news-stories/heres-how-create-long-term-safer-pathways-australia-asylum-seekers
by Pegasus on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:33 pm
O good the asylum issue again that the libs will win every time.
Sad for those people who drowned , but they took the risk and lost.
by Joe6pack on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Yep, unelectable LUNATICS
by Centre on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:36 pm
guytaur
If there’s no one willing to pay them the money, because the AS know that the smugglers can’t guarantee them asylum in Australia, there won’t be anyone on the boats.
Excellent. Let’s start with Malaysia, then.
Whereas blaming them for people drowning because they have unseaworthy boats isn’t?
Er, what? Isn’t that offshore processing?
That’s offshore processing. That’s the Malaysian solution.
And how do regional solutions start? By one country signing up, demonstrating the benefits, and then others getting on board. (Thailand is already interested).
That’s the whole point; we need to begin somewhere. We can’t wait until the perfect solution just arrives on our doorstep without any work on our part.
In the meantime, let’s work to save some lives.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Go Ireland, and beat the shits out of them Sheeppen Shaggers
by The Finnigans on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:36 pm
zoom
which chip?
which shoulder?
I was just saying that I’ve had run-ins with students.
In the end I never belittled them for not agreeing with me.
by kezza2 on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:37 pm
how patheticment
by The Finnigans on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:38 pm
But then again, I wasn’t a teacher.
by kezza2 on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:38 pm
BB 8384
Onya. You have a talent for telling it like it is.
(Yes, FB, I know it should be ‘as it is’.)
by muttleymcgee on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:39 pm
Centre
Australians would support funding for UNHCR people to process in Indonesia to stop boats. Costs a hell of a lot less than detention centres and flying people from country to country.
Of course in reality that would not stop boats as desperate people who do not get processed in time would still get on boats. Maybe though there would be less and thus less drowning.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:39 pm
my say
As the L and NP parties pursue their unmandated reforms, I am beginning to feel the same heaviness in my chest that I felt throughout the Howard and Kennett years.
by lizzie on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:39 pm
Why? it is the truth
by Joe6pack on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:40 pm
zoomster
No it is not offshore processing. What it is is several countries doing on shore processing and sharing collective responsibility for seeking out a good home for refugees.
by guytaur on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:40 pm
There is no solution to 142 million displaced people.
There is no solution to 1 billion people who go to bed hungry every night.
There is no solution to our mass extinction event.
Nauru, onshore, Malaysian solution, TPVs, turn back the boats are not solutions. They are political counterfeits, masquerading as solutions to unsolveable problems.
There was a time when there were real solutions to all these, but that time has long since passed.
The issues now are whether humanity will enact solutions to AGW, to three billion hungry each night and to an even greater mass extinction event.
Because, by the time these symptoms arrive, there will no solutions for any of the ‘problems’ either.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:41 pm
The finns
How cute. What are their names flopsy and mopsy
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:41 pm
connie, when you expext the polls to move, deduct one month and keep your eye on the betting.
Divide your bet by 4 varying parts. Make first bet at the point above
I will start looking in November
by Centre on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:41 pm
guytaur
you missed the bit in my post where I acknowledged there are Greens who I (generally) agree with.
I have lots of friends who vote Green. I got mobbed during the 2010 campaign when I gatecrashed a Green function. I get Christmas cards from former Green candidates.
“I am a Green; you criticise my viewpoints; therefore you hate Greens” is a silly line of argument. I understand you adopt it because it saves you from having to consider whether the fault is yours.
I don’t and won’t vote Green, because my bottom line is achievement. I’ve always thought it must be very soul destroying, coming up with beautifully crafted policies and knowing you have a gnat’s chance in hell of achieving them.
Whereas I have had the satisfaction of seeing policies I’ve worked on become reality.
I’d rather work for real change in an imperfect world than no change because I’m hanging out for perfection.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:41 pm
P(osted Saturday, June 23, 2012 at 4:15 pm | Permalink
Gee there’s been a lot of rubbish written here over recent days with regard to the Malaysian proposal. It is an elegant solution to a current problem and will be the foundation of a world-wide re-think on the subject. This could be the model that the world adopts throughout the rest of this century.
If you come by boat you will be sent to Malaysia to have your claim processed. You will NEVER be)
Thanks norman
Will the greens ever put aside their policy that just will not work
by my say on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:42 pm
kezza
and neither have I. In fact, I’ve encouraged them to disagree with me.
Ah, the memories. Some of the best classroom discussions I’ve had have been with Liberal supporting students….
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:43 pm
Centre:
I think Labor will win the next election. So I can put $1000 on Labor right now and make a $6000 profit next year.
If I wait until Nov when the polls are tighter it will be too late.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:44 pm
Steve Lewis might conveniently have lost his phone or Iphone. It seems to run in the “family”
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/mystery-of-vital-iphone-lost-by-news-international-7876756.html
by Gaffhook on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:44 pm
Ootz @ 8099,
Last weekend’s Science Show on Alan Turing was magnificent.
This comment in particular struck me:
by fiona on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:44 pm
Finns, watch and learn.
The Leprechauns already on the wrong end of the contest.
7 – blot after 8 minutes. Not bad for a 20 yo in his second test.
by muttleymcgee on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:45 pm
thirdborn314
A bit late but:
Totally agree it is time for some humanity from everyone.
by MTBW on Jun 23, 2012 at 5:45 pm