Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
A
It has never been in doubt that the turkish plane was in Syrian airspace. The pertinent problem now is how the domestic tensions between Mr Erdogan and the turkish military are resolved. The latter, IMHO, want war with Syria.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 6:49 pm
Peg
The Greens’ policy is to support regional processing based in Australia.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 6:52 pm
You make it sound like there is something wrong with any of that!
Oh, that’s right, some here think that is a criminal offence worthy of abuse!
“By his own admission” ….. LOL
by Mod Lib on Jun 23, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Messam!
That makes seven tries for the night. So far.
46 – blot.
And the 100th try the AllBlacks have scored against Ireland.
Hey Finns ……
by muttleymcgee on Jun 23, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Peg
I loved your post about your family and appreciate what you post.
You put a lot of thought into your posts and I feel your passion coming through your writings.
I am not a “green” as I vote ALP but preference the Greens. I appreciate your passion in your contributions and enjoy reading them.
by MTBW on Jun 23, 2012 at 6:54 pm
BW,
I’m not up on internal problems within Turkey, I’m just hoping that this incident is viewed and accepted as mistakes made by both sides and the middle east doesn’t flare up over it.
by Augustus on Jun 23, 2012 at 6:55 pm
the reason why none of the SE Asian countries have signed the UNHCR refugee convention – and probably never will in its current form, is that they are rightly concerned of being swamped by millions, or tens of millions of refugees fleeing persecution in China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh etc if political circumstances deteriorate, or wars erupt.
they are developing countries, not first world countries like Australia who can afford to piss $1b away processing 1500 people on Nauru, or $1b processing 15,000 on Christmas Island.
But they are interested in partnerships with Australia – and yes we will pick up the majority of the costs – to manage the humanitarian problem.
by sprocket_ on Jun 23, 2012 at 6:55 pm
A
Indeed. The times are dangerous.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 6:56 pm
Lenore Taylor clearly missed the directive to write stories about poor victim Kevin Rudd today. http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/rio-no-progress-at-the-top-but-a-bit-on-the-side-20120622-20td0.html
by rishane on Jun 23, 2012 at 6:57 pm
BW
For all your reasoned scenarios, you can’t escape the fact that the reason we haven’t had another World War is because of Turing, not despite him.
by kezza2 on Jun 23, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Kezza
TP has satsifactorily explained his position regarding Rudd Gillard.
1. He liked Rudd (as Flippers endless repeat quotes shows)
2. When Rudd was deposed he assumed there was a good reason and urged support for Gillard (without any objection to Rudd)
3. As the dust settled realised that the the deposing Rudd was unwise and less consistent with his political position
4. Became a solid Ruddista
Now what the bloody hell is wrong with that. It is politics.
Pretty much reflects my view except for 1 because I caught an early glimpse of the factional machinations and therefore knew it was idiotic from minute 1.
by daretotread on Jun 23, 2012 at 6:58 pm
From a couple of weeks ago.
My own view is that Abbott’s leadership will replicate recent history, and he will be replaced in December this year – the Dec before a scheduled election. Time will tell.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 6:59 pm
k2
Bullshit.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 6:59 pm
Which is why the Malaysia deal should be given a go. Australia can lead this stuff, but in a collaborative way.
by confessions on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:00 pm
Daretotread
So you didn’t like Rudd?
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:02 pm
BW,
The problem with Bletchley Part breaking the enigma naval codes was the fear that the germans would realise they had and change it, therefore having to sacrifice tonnage for the greater good.
by Augustus on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:04 pm
I second that.
Since +1 is not allowed.
Thanks for telling us, your story hasn’t gone astray with me.
by kezza2 on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:05 pm
Zoomster
TPs comments I gather were always favourable to Rudd
I obviously very much like Rudd BUT not unconditionally. He did some things I did not like. Not many and no where near as many as Gillard but he is not without fault. No one is.
by daretotread on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:08 pm
Peg
missed your story on family but I also appreciate your posts.
I am Labor but have a very, very green tinge
by daretotread on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:09 pm
I have never hidden my philosophy beliefs . so not hard by
by Joe6pack on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:10 pm
kezza,
“+1″ has not been blacklisted; it’s just very non-U and you no how PB has to maintain its quality.
by This little black duck on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:11 pm
A
There is no doubt at all that Bletchley Park made a brilliant contribution to the British war effort.
The reality is that in a war in which between 20 and 30 million soldiers died, the British Empire contribution, at around half a million, was far, far less than was that of the USSR, the USA and China.
Naturally, as children in Australian schools and watching anglophone television we were led to believe that Britain ‘won’ the war. Bullshit, of course.
Taken in context, the overall contribution of Bletchley Park was a significant but minor contribution to one of the lesser national contributors to the defeat of Germany and Japan.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:12 pm
BW
Ha, I expect a lot more from a Catter hater than that!
DTT
I could’ve sworn I read posts from you that you’d given up on Ruddstoration.
You were over it, let’s get on with supporting Gillard.
I’m not going to dredge up the past,
but apparently TP rooted for Gillard and then changed his mind.
Have you done the same?
by kezza2 on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:12 pm
Mr Bowe did have a fatwah on ‘+1′ at one stage but his religious zealotry on the matter has waned somewhat.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:13 pm
k2
At the conclusion of the leadership vote between Mr Rudd and Ms Gillard I made a commitment to stop posting on Mr Rudd, provided he kept his nose clean, destabilization-wise.
He has, more or less. And I have stopped commenting on Mr Rudd, more or less.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:15 pm
War On Boers,
William Bowe Esq has expressed his dislike of “+1″ but has not given it the red card.
by This little black duck on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:16 pm
tlbd
Yes indeedy.
And, thanks duckie for the sudoku references.
Been terrific.
by kezza2 on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:16 pm
TLBD
I do not have my copy of Bludger Standing Orders with me, or I would do Ms Bishop the Elder and quote you chapter, verse and page number on the +1 fatwah.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:17 pm
You probably have good reason, bw, but you do really dislike the British, i see.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:23 pm
Boerwar,
The funniest thing last Thursday in QT was how Peta Credlin held court. Tone, JulieB, Pyne and even Bishop The Elder fronted the advisor’s box to get their orders.
by This little black duck on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:24 pm
+1 is s fatwah, but an occasional equation seems to sneak past.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:25 pm
BW,
Agreed, it is the sum of all the parts that led to an allied victory and many brilliant people were involved, probably insignificant as individuals but as a whole led to the victory.
As for children in Australian schools, my father lived in Hamburg during the war and experienced operation gomorrah, so being of German decent in Darling Downs schools had its own set of problems, and given my mother was born on the Downs life was different.
by Augustus on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:27 pm
duckie
I did not see all of QT last Thursday, so I did not see that. I wonder whom she is channelling? Mordor?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:28 pm
Most unlike you to shift the goal posts 5 million degrees.
May be I made a mistake – didn’t Turing build Enigma?
(And I know there was an Australian involved with another code-breaking computer)
My conclusion is that:
these folk showed that there was always going to be an ability to supersede the latest technological advance – hence preventing WWIII (to break it down to little parts – that’s why the Cold War didn’t eventuate.).
by kezza2 on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:28 pm
PTMD
I don’t really dislike the British.
What I do dislike is lying about history. Natrually, growing up in Australia, most of the lies we get are about Australia and Britain. While I am sure that the spanish tell themselves lies about spanish history, those lies are not particularly relevant to us here in Australia.
The documentary about Mr Turing is merely a small example of the rubbish we are fed. He did not win the war for Britian for the simple reason that, contrary to what we have been taught, Britain did not ‘win’ WW2. Left to their own devices, the British might, if exceptionally fortunate, have fought an exhausted draw with Germany. It was the US, the USSR and China which did the heavy lifting in WW2. Britain was along with the ride.
This reality was painfully evident to Mr Churchill at Yalta. He knew then what we have been taught not to believe now.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:30 pm
K2
Enigma was a German code machine, Turing alone with many others cracked it. The poles actually were working on it before the British I believe.
by Augustus on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:32 pm
sorry Turing along with many others cracked it
by Augustus on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:33 pm
K2
Yep. You made a mistake. The germans built enigma. The polish captured a copy of the machine which was provided to the British. Mr Turing’s brilliance enabled him to work out how to use the British copy to decode german military messages.
Well, the Cold War did eventuate.
While there are various views, it was the known destructive power of nuclear weaponry, not the unknown power of new or unknown technologies which, arguably, prevented WW3 from occurring.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:34 pm
BW
I have not seen many posts, if any, from you that show the British in a good light. That is not too say your role as Devil’s Advocate is not useful, but I want to let you know that I am aware of the lens you use.
Your version of history is interesting though.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:34 pm
TLBD @ 8529
A very, very interesting observation.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:35 pm
The Greens have been caught out, for years some have been saying that greens can have un workable policies because they never have put them in to practice, it’s easy for a naive sheltered inner city hipster greeny to tell the world that they will stop wars, stop famines, but really its just to be trendy and act smart, impress their Uni friends because they know deep down they will never have to drag a lifeless body of a dead child from the cold Sea, they say things like, “Indonesia should stop the people smugglers and make the fishing vessels seaworthy” without saying how they are going to do it, maybe guytaur can fly there and tell the corrupt police and government officials to arrest the bad men, and he maybe lucky and not get a bullet in the back of his head, he could tell the poor fisherman to fix his boat, but they would most likely cut him up and use the greeny for fish bait
Let me try it, I want to be just like SHY, hey people smugglers fix your boats and make them seaworthy, wow I feel better already!, hey feed the world let them know it’s Christmas time, this is so easy being Green I feel like Kermit the frog, I can cure all the problems in the world by shooting of a few mindless slogans and have lots of ideas and policies that will never work and not have put them in to practice because I will never be a Majority in Government.
What we have here is a case where they now have to make a choice, save the lives of women and children from drowning and bring over 4000 refugees that have been in camps for years by compromising on policy on onshore processing, the hypocrisy of the Greens are on display with the above post of Astrobleme , guytaur and FB, they are not the humanitarians they make themselves out to be.
by Seasprite on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:36 pm
Boer
I’ve read an interesting bio of FDR, which gave (of course) the American view of the war.
Apparently the Americans were very frustrated with Mr Churchill, and believed that the war could have ended (in Europe, at least) perhaps up to a year earlier, had he not been so recalcitrant.
He frustrated them because he really wasn’t interested in defeating Hitler – he wanted to leave all the effort to the Russians. Instead, he was focussed on coming out of the war with as much of the Empire intact as he could.
It was an interesting POV.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Ducky
I have always felt there will come a day when Abbott will regret the advice of Miss Peta
by victoria on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:38 pm
PTMD
Unfortunately, I am usually in the situation of responding to some overblown and tendentious rubbish or false claim about so-called British ‘achievements’.
I didn’t initiate the rubbish about Mr Turling.
IMHO, someone has to call ‘bullshit’ on ‘bullshit’.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:38 pm
Whereas, of course, Seasprite, those of us who are actually interested in how to solve the problem are ‘vile’.
by zoomster on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:39 pm
z
You raise one of the central tensions of the allies during WW2. As you say, Mr Churchill was a British Imperialist to the bone and intended to ensure that the war ended with the British Empire intact.
The US, having been blocked from trading freely and fairly with elements of the British, French, Dutch and Japanese empires pre WW2, wanted to ensure that it had free and open access to world markets.
Mr Churchill’s fantasy about the ‘soft underbelly’ of europe was designed to fit a pattern of his behaviour – which was to ensure that the russians did not benefit from WW2.
Mr Churchill’s so-called ‘soft underbelly’ was the hilly-to mountainous spine of the Italian pensinsula. It was wonderful defensive country, narrow, poor tank country, and anchored on both flanks by the sea. The germans took full advantage and punished the allies for their foolishness.
Tens of thousands of allied soldiers were killed by Mr Churchill’s ‘soft-underbelly’ madness.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:44 pm
BW,
Read an interesting book some time back Masters and Commanders, dicussing the tensions between Churhill and Roosevelt as the politicians and Brooke and Marshall as generals carring out their orders.
by Augustus on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:44 pm
Augustus
Thanks for that.
I just got the names (of the computers) mixed up.
So the Brits (and others) cracked Enigma’s code.
And then developed their own computer.
I remember watching a doco on how to break the code.
And fantasising that had I been born back then,
because of some innate ability to think in terms of sequences,
I might just have been that so-called oddball mathematician to have the patience to break it.
I think we’re born that way.
Nevertheless, I’m glad Turing was on the Allies side.
I don’t think Fascism in any form is good for any one.
by kezza2 on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:45 pm
Why did the USA join the European war?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:46 pm
A
Mr Marshall and Mr Eisenhower stand out as exceptional individuals, IMHO.
by Boerwar on Jun 23, 2012 at 7:47 pm