Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports that a Galaxy poll, conducted from a sample of 995 from Friday to Sunday, has the Coalition leading 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 12% for the Greens. Supplementary questions find 64% believing the government is worse off now than it was under Kevin Rudd, against 20% who think it better off; 59% believing the Prime Minister has failed to deliver an effective policy to reduce carbon emissions, against 59% who believe she has; and 57% saying she has failed in sharing the benefits of the mining boom, against 29% who say she has succeeded. There is also a frankly silly question as to whether the government has succeeded in stopping asylum seeker boats, to which 9% (presumably Labor partisans irritated by the question) wrongly said yes, and 80% offered the obvious response.
UPDATE: Essential Research records two-party preferred steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Other questions cover most trusted party to handle various issues (Greens environment and climate change, Labor industrial relations, Liberal everything else); whether the economy is heading in the right or wrong direction (43-32 in favour, compared with 36-41 against in March); trust in people and organisations (Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull do better than Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, who do better than Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart; and bias in media reporting in favour or against various groups (Liberals and business seen to do better than Labor and unions).
In other news, some state, territory and local government matters of note:
• Roy Morgan has published three phone polls of state voting intention for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland on Friday, from a small combined sample of 811. While the margins of error are about 5.5%, the results are roughly in line with other polling in showing little change on the most recent elections, with the conservative incumbents leading 52-48 in Victoria and 62-38 in both New South Wales and Queensland. Personal ratings show a strikingly poor result for Ted Baillieu, at 29% approval and 53.5% disapproval. The polls were conducted on the Tuesdays and Wednesdays of the previous two weeks.
• I have lazily neglected to cover the publication of draft boundaries for the state redistribution in South Australia, but as always Antony Green has been well and truly on the job. The proposals have been uncommonly controversial in that they have essentially ignored the legislative injunction that the commissioners must, “as far as practicable”, draw boundaries which on the basis of the previous election results would have achieved “fairness” with respect to the major parties’ shares of seats and two-party preferred votes. Given Labor’s success in winning 26 out of 47 seats at the 2010 election from 48.4% of the two-party vote, this would have demanded tremendous creativity on the part of the redistribution commissioners, and presumably some very contorted electoral boundaries designed to slash Labor members’ margins.
• Refugee advocate Linda Scott has won the “community preselection” to determine Labor’s candidate to take on Clover Moore in the Sydney lord mayoral election in September. Half of the vote was determined by a ballot open to any of the 90,000 voters in the municipality (albeit that they were required to pledge that they were not members of a rival party), with the other half determined by party members. It attracted 400 party members and 3900 non-members. Labor will now trial the procedure in five yet-to-be-decided seats for the next 2015 state election. However, Andrew Crook of Crikey has reported the party’s various state branches are backing away from the idea of conducting primaries for the federal election, which they had been encouraged to pursue by the December national conference and the Bracks-Carr-Faulkner post-election review.
• Antony Green has published his guide to the Northern Territory election on August 25.
Federal preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Dio
Yes. and that is one of the good tracks. You will notice, too, there is no Clerk of the Course to assist fractious horses or catch runaway horses, jockeys lead their horses to the barrier (as in walk), owners and trainers are allowed behind the barrier when the horses are loaded in, people are allowed on the track and in the saddling ring with the horses before and after a race and other chaotic differences.
BC must have thought she was in a circus.
Do you know they also allow pacemaker horses on their races? And there is no ambulance following the race.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 24, 2012 at 1:40 am
Snap,
Everyone likes to boast about their family but truly, what my Mum doesn’t know about horses can be written on a back of a postage stamp with Abbott’s ego.
As soon as Mum saw BC’s tail switching she said the horse was stuffed and they going to beat her. It is a miracle Nolan got BC over the line as a winner.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 24, 2012 at 2:04 am
Puff
Might have been a bit of both,BC not her best in health,and nolan admitted he made a riding mistake,guess we wait further info.
Looking at replay she covered extra ground early quite effortessly,so nothing can really be taken away from her win ,did think it was a cow paddock,for just 1.5 sec out from record.
by Schnappi on Jun 24, 2012 at 2:12 am
snap
No, I am not taking anything away from her win. Not at all. Also she lost weight, maybe the stress of the travel?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 24, 2012 at 2:17 am
Whately is a journo,but guess all he could say in 140 characters.
Gerard Whateley@GerardWhateley
Incredible aftermath to @blackcaviar2006 victory. Nolen knows he almost blew it. Moody says she’s not the horse she was at home
by Schnappi on Jun 24, 2012 at 2:21 am
I think it was wrong of the trainers to have told Black Caviar that she was going to address both houses of the U.K. parliament straight after Aung San Suu Kyi.
Her performance today clearly reflected her bitter disappointment of having been lied to.
by ShowsOn on Jun 24, 2012 at 2:24 am
New thread.
by William Bowe on Jun 24, 2012 at 3:02 am