Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Boerwar
There is the Zenzizenzizenzic of ten chance of any algolagnia around here
by poroti on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:28 pm
Meher barba
Cannot tell u how bullied i was, at one stage
Said the same but stayed
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:29 pm
bbs
ah, but if there are swings against Labor in those seats, logic says there must have been gains elsewhere!
And – again, personally speaking – I’d happily leave those seats to the Greens if it meant picking up a couple more, whether in Victoria or elsewhere.
by zoomster on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:29 pm
By persons not here now i might add
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:30 pm
With Rudd as Labor leader, Labor secured its highest vote in QLD since 1943.
Under Gillard, Labor’s vote in QLD declined by 5.3%.
by ShowsOn on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:30 pm
@1035
I, like you, went back through the posts because, sometime you can post what to you is harmless but to others is Maralinga. I couldn’t see it. So, move on, get on the foot falcon out of there.
by grey on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:31 pm
My Say
The article says that people already on 44c will continue to get it as long as they stay on the account. If they move out (eg rent out the house) then it reverts to 8c.I know it is four years away but that is one thing the ALP should promise to reverse.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:31 pm
poroti
Sometimes I do worry for your immortal soul. But not often and not for long.
by Boerwar on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:31 pm
The ABC just showed Kevin Rudd doing his PSA for children with heart problems.
Getting discussed as part of Leadership prism. I find myself totally agreeing with Vanstone.
In fact linking this PSA to leadership talk is not good.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:32 pm
Kezza2. I have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. Sorry
by meher baba on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:32 pm
have come to sow the seed of Love in your hearts”
Meher baba
Thats your grarvarter
We need u
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:33 pm
Rubbish as history, history as rubbish, or just plain rubbish as rubbish?
‘Ultra was possible only because of Mr Turing’s brilliance.’ But, but, but…
Former Bletchley Park mathematician-cryptologist Gordon Welchman has written: “Ultra would never have gotten off the ground if we had not learned from the Poles, in the nick of time, the details both of the German military Enigma machine, and of the operating procedures that were in use.’
The historically more accurate statement would be, “‘ There are two broad historical possibilities: ‘Mr Turing was solely responsible for Ultra’ or ‘Ultra was only possible because of the previous work of the Polish Cipher Bureau and also because of the brilliance of Mr Turing’s ongoing contribution.’”
by Boerwar on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:33 pm
Zoomster, you just cannot ignore that the two most marginal Labor seats in the whole country are in Victoria plus it is (as well as Syndey and Grayndler) where the ALP are at most threat from the Greens.
On the other hand, the Libs would probably want to minimise a Tony Abbott presence here because he is very unpopular in the Masschusetts of the South.
SA is where Labor can probably ignore in that there is not much to pick up and not much to lose either.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:34 pm
There you go! I don’t know who Peter Lewis is but he is going to have lift his game to new heights to counter these two Coalition heavyweights. Something tells me is isn’t going make the effort and won’t be asked to.
I wonder if anyone is keeping a record of Sweet Annabel’s “guests”.
by Roy Orbison on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:34 pm
Kezza has had a bad time latley
May bbe she got her posts as in seeing mixed up
Blackspur
Today quoted me when it wasnt me
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:34 pm
Boerwar
Hmmm.I’m thinking about the time it took for the brain of the bug that hit my windscreen tonight to go through its arse
by poroti on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:34 pm
http://www.avatarmeherbaba.org/
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:35 pm
So none of you are watching Hockey rambling in parliament? I just turned over and I can’t work out what the hell he’s on about. He trails off into nothing and now wanders off into the night.
by Aguirre on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:36 pm
Boerwar, are you saying these things for a reason, or do you just have some kind of psychological addiction to hearing yourself denounce others for crediting Britain with winning World War II, regardless of whether any such thing has actually been said?
by William Bowe on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:36 pm
You could make your fortune by inventing the digital bidet.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Meher Baba, Avatar of the Age “I have come to give a new understanding of spiritual value and truth to
I think your presence her e bring enlightenment
Please stay
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Thanks grey and my say. It’s ok, web forums attract all types. I’ve been home from work sick today and have probably made too many posts for one person’s taste and have now attracted a stalker. I probably won’t be back for weeks and hopefully the other poster will move on.
by meher baba on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Near-term speculative history of Australia:
The “Dark Ages” is a historical periodization emphasizing the cultural and economic deterioration that occurred in Australia following the decline of the Labor Empire.[1][2] The label employs traditional light-versus-darkness imagery to contrast the “darkness” of the period with earlier and later periods of “light”.[3] The period is characterized by a relative scarcity of historical and other written records at least for some areas of Australia, rendering it obscure to historians. The term “Dark Age” itself derives from the Latin saeculum obscurum, originally applied by Caesar Baronius in 1602 to a tumultuous period in the 10th and 11th century.[4]
Apologies to Wikipedia.
by Boerwar on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Meher have i convi ced u
Spiritual enlightenment
Is one of my hobby horses
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:39 pm
gray and meher baba
Ooh, just read back a few posts, and because I haven’t immediately explained my position, I’m obviously lying about it.
Pffft.
What happened was, and William can probably confirm it, was my computer died, and I had to use another one from the same ISP (today,that is).
grey,
what happened was this:
I commented on a Katherine Murphy column
KM couldn’t make a non-partisan comment if she tried.
I called her out on it.
Called her a fkn bitch.
Meher baba said that I shouldn;t call KM a bitch.
William got involved and I refused to withdraw.
I got banned.
Since then, meher baba has trashed a lot of people albeit s/he has not called any of them a “bitch”.
I just wonder why “idiot” is okay and “bitch” is not.
Among other things.
by kezza2 on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:40 pm
bbs
Well, I’m not in a position to tell the Feds what to do, as I’ve said!
So they will pour resources into the Vic seats which hover around the 2% plus or minus side.
But, if they’re wise, they won’t worry about any of the others, because the money and resources will be better spent elsewhere.
Of course, they’ll have polled the hell out of Corangamite, LaTrobe, etc – if the campaign in those seats is low key, then that’ll mean that they’re safe.
I don’t see Victoria as a worry for Fed Labor at all (which probably means it’ll crash and burn!). It’s likely that the small % losses showing up in the polling is in safe Liberal seats.
by zoomster on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:40 pm
William, There has been a fair bit of rubbish written on these very topics in Bludger. Just setting the record straight in the interests of the historical street cred of Bludger.
The statement that Turing, through Ultra, won the Battle of Britain, is bad history because the history is contested. It is not axiomatically true.
Hinsley, British Official War Historian, and an ardent supporter of Turing’s contribution, believed, in relation to the Battle of Britain, that “…the deductions (from Enigma) were of no operational value to the C-in-C, Fighter Command,’ and that Dowding had had to depend on `his own strategic judgement,’ without help.” OTHO, other historians believe that Enigma did help Dowding. The historically correct representation would be, ‘The contribution of Turing, via Ultra, to the Battle of Britain is contested history. It may have been significant, or it may have been entirely absent.’
by Boerwar on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:40 pm
Tonight. Leveson, not 4C for me.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:41 pm
Which is silly, because as we all know, it was won by the Soviets …
by Fran Barlow on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:41 pm
bbpseph
Too late, already done. http://www.thebidetshop.com.au/
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:41 pm
Boofhead Alert
@JoeHockey: David Cameron’s speech on entitlements to be delivered in the UK tonight will be a significant step forward in global debate on welfare.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:42 pm
meher baba Posted Monday, June 25, 2012 at 6:37 pm | Permalink
Thanks grey and my say. It’s ok, web forums attract all types. I’ve been home from work sick today and have probably made too many posts for one person’s taste and have now attracted a stalker.
No u have not i have been under the weather today and been here to long
My undrr the weather was a little depression about the future
What made u chose your avarter
1072
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:42 pm
Kezza please stop
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:44 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:44 pm
Fran Barlow
Oh no “we” don’t know that 90% of the “action” was on the “Eastern Front” .
by poroti on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:45 pm
I know this sound odd, and I have said it before, but what I fear for Labor most coming into the next election, (apart from a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot) is longevity.
Come August 2013 or so, Labor will have been in power continuously getting on for seven years.
Now, not many Labor administrations have lasted that long – in fact, did I read somewhere that even as of right now, Labor has been in power for its third longest period since Federation?
Even if Labor had a majority of say 10, I think the odds of getting in power again would be tough.
In the 10 majority scenario we would get the “It’s time” rubbish from the conservatives but I can’t help but feel there may be an element of this come 2013.
Of course the big difference is the sheer ineptitude of the conservatives, their policy vacuum and a leader who appeals best to the worst elements of the Oz electorate.
by Tricot on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:45 pm
Because “bitch” is misogynistic and carries menacing undertones of sexual violence.
by William Bowe on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:45 pm
So, now I am a stalker?
Excuse me.
That is too much.
How about you revisit your post about your knowledge of Katherine Murphy.
And then go from there.
before you start casting aspersions on my character.
by kezza2 on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:45 pm
Talking about speculative history:
‘World War Two would have been lost except that Britain kept fighting’.
This is speculation about alternative history, not history. Even as alternative history, it is contested. At the least, the speculation needs qualification.
It is also only half, and possibly the lesser half, of this particular area of speculation. China had been fighting Japan for years before Britain entered World War Two.
To pursue the theme, and by applying some additional alternative history, it is arguable that Hitler and Stalin would have ended up in a war, regardless of whether Britain had continued to fight Germany. It is also arguable, that had Roosevelt had his way, the US would have ended up having a war with Japan, regardless of whether Britain had continued fighting Germany and regardless of whether China had continued fighting Japan: more and more ‘ifs’ rest on more and more ‘maybes’. The correct speculative historical statement might be something like: ‘It is reasonable to speculate that Britain and China may have helped to win World War Two by continuing to fight until the USSR and the US joined.’
by Boerwar on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:46 pm
BW
Are the authorities burning off their collection of confiscated whacky backy somewhere close to you?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:46 pm
BW, I do understand that in your own mind, the reason you get people’s backs up when you discuss the war is that you alone are smart enough to see past the propagandistic brainwashing we’ve all been subjected to. However, the real reason is that it is instantly obviously to any reasonably intelligent person who listens to you that you aren’t nearly as smart as you think you are.
by William Bowe on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:48 pm
OMG!!!!! This is exactly what the ultra nationalists in Japan think!
They think that FDR provoked Japan to bomb Pearl Harbor!
by ShowsOn on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:48 pm
[1066
my say
Posted Monday, June 25, 2012 at 6:35 pm | Permalink
http://www.avatarmeherbaba.org/
Oh dear my say, that photograph. Meher looks like Frank Zappa on a bad hair day.
by smithe on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:48 pm
When in the former Soviet Union in 1985, I bought about a book about how the Soviet Union won WW2 all by themselves. There was some begrudging acknowledgement of at least the Brits but the US was notable by its absence. Also, nothing significant happened before 22 June 1941 – no invasion of Poland (hard for the Soviets to explain), no Fall of France. It was only a thin book, I wonder if I still have it or it has got lost in many house moves since then.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:49 pm
WARNING
Sales 7.30 guest will be Scott the Morrison.
by lizzie on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:49 pm
meher baba
What made u take this avarter
‘
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Fran
tsk, tsk. Re-writing history…
‘World War Two was won by the USSR’ makes as much sense as ‘World War Two was won by Luxembourg’.
by Boerwar on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:50 pm
William
Huh? Since when?
In your opinion.
Not mine.
by kezza2 on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Kezza,
It seems to me that a lot of this would go away of you provided a direct quote or post reference. Just sayin’…
by Roy Orbison on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:51 pm
Interesting mathematical concept that two three year terms end up as seven years.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:51 pm