Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
e Posted Monday, June 25, 2012 at 6:49 pm | Permalink
WARNING Sales 7.30 guest will be Scott the Morrison.
We watch the block
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:51 pm
Bemused:
Irony …
Ok …
So Plimer is right in the text except at the top. Sadly Hat’s is all wrong … As a person who loves tidiness, I will pass on your concern.
by Fran Barlow on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:51 pm
Zoomster
I certainly was not looking at any Victoria seat in the 5% range. just the three on very tiny margins.
by daretotread on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:51 pm
lizzie
Very grateful for that alert.
Memo to self: avoid Morrison by avoiding 7.30.
Avoid Brandis by avoiding Q&A.
by Boerwar on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:51 pm
Oh good. So the Libs might have some policies by tomorrow morning…
by zoomster on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:52 pm
Kezza, I venture this would be the opinion of most reasonable people. God knows, this doesn’t include you.
by William Bowe on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:52 pm
I thought the photo on wiki was more Salvador Dali.
by grey on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:52 pm
‘Ultra determined victory over defeat in World War Two battles.’
Pairing this statement with a claim that the War was shortened by up to four years by Ultra, implies causative determinism. That is, Ultra forced victories over what otherwise would have been defeats.
As a general statement, this is questionable history at best, quite wrong at worst. The general pattern of World War Two battles was that the side with more men, planes, tanks, ships and artillery won any given battle, Ultra or no Ultra. This was true for the war as whole. ‘God is on the side of the big battalions.’ There is little evidence that Ultra systematically enabled smaller forces to defeat larger forces. There were, of course, exceptions to the rule. A historically more accurate statement might be ‘Force disparity, not military intelligence, was probably, and in general, the main variable, amongst many, determining victory or defeat in battle.’ A more historically-accurate general statement for superior military intelligence might have been, ‘Superior military intelligence, including Ultra, enabled some but not all World War Two battles to be won with fewer Allied losses, or with the application of less force, or in a shorter time, than might otherwise have been the case.’
by Boerwar on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:53 pm
smithe Posted Monday, June 25, 2012 at 6:48 pm | Permalink
[1066 my say Posted Monday, June 25, 2012 at 6:35 pm | Permalink http://www.avatarmeherbaba.org/
Oh dear my say, that photograph. Meher looks like Frank Zappa on a bad hair day.
Smithe its ,
Peace and peaceful thoughts he represents
Thats what we need
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:53 pm
blackburnpseph
Sorta like the History Channel story of the end of WWII where in the 2 hours there was ten seconds of mentioning anyone not American. The fact remains that 90% of the fighting happened on the Eastern Front. Uncle Joe is still a bastard but it was the crazy Ivans that did the real damage.
by poroti on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:54 pm
Kezza2. I do recall saying that KM isnt a fkn bitch and insinuatting that it isn’t a nice way to talk about a lady. I know KM a bit and I agree that she is an out and out Liberal., but she’s quite a bice person I can’t find the old thread (does anyone know which one that was?) but I doubt very much that I would have said anything should be done to you for making that comment.
I probably didn’t have time to look at the thread and this is the first I’ve heard of your being banned by William for making that remark. If that’s all you were banned for, I certainly don’t think it was just. If I unwittingly precipitated your banning, I’m truly sorry: it isn’t an outcome I was seeking
I don’t consider referring to people in public life as idiots and imbeciles to be “character assassination” as such, although I acknowledge it smacks of discrimination against people with intellectual disabilities (who are generally much a higher calibre of person than your average pollie).
by meher baba on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:54 pm
For those interested in copyright being used as law enforcement
http://www.theage.com.au/technology/technology-news/the-unlikely-poster-boy-for-a-culture-war-how-a-knock-on-the-door-changed-film-fan-richards-life-forever-20120625-20xcf.html
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:54 pm
William
You may find this somewhat disquieting, but I support you 100% in relation to the use of the term ‘bitch’.
by Boerwar on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Boerwar
Where Morrison is concerned (and Abbott) I not only turn off, but feel a distinct need to start waving garlic around and drawing pentagrams.
by lizzie on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:55 pm
But apparently no use to Queensland State Labor for the next nine years? From the quill of one his biggest cheerleaders? By the way, be careful with those Kevin facts because Evan might see them. Before you know it he’s got a Jack Rat happening and we know what happens next. Keyboard cleanup in room 2…
by Roy Orbison on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Kezza
A gentle suggestion.
Terms like bitch and the f and c words are just not on. Just like a newspaper.
Surely when you ran your paper you would NOT have printed such words (or used them in an editorial)
by daretotread on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Hmmm, must have a closer look at the oft-repeated claim that Ultra won the Battle of the Atlantic.
by Boerwar on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:55 pm
What are sbs on about leadership
They are worse than abc
The foootage was from febuary
We are now watching maxwell smart
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:55 pm
My Say,
Yes, on a semi rural block a bit north of Caboolture
by Smaug on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:56 pm
lizzie
I like the pentagrammic approach. Does it ward off despair?
by Boerwar on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:57 pm
meher baba
Please “feel off colour” more often. I enjoy your presence.
by lizzie on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:57 pm
Poroti @ 1109
The updated version will be the Channel 9 coverage of the Olympics where there will be no other events except those that Australia looks like winning a medal in.
And when Australia does win the medal, we will see the finish and the flag go up again and again and again.
National pride is one thing but sporting jingoism gets hard to take.
by blackburnpseph on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:57 pm
This is nauseating. Mr Abbott (see last sentence in this quote) gives the impression of being slightly delusional about his moral superiority on this issue:
Read more: http://www.news.com.au/national/gillard-closer-to-coalition-policy-on-asylum-seekers/story-e6frfkw9-1226408167851#ixzz1ynERXfwE
I certainly hope there are closed-door discussions between all parties and independents at this time. For Mr Abbott, any compromise is all about losing face; for the PM I doubt that losing face is an issue, given the way she has already been trampled in the media.
by citizen on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:58 pm
I think I have already dealt with the utterly Brittano-centric tosh that Turing shortened World War Two by up to four years. Tick.
by Boerwar on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Boerwar
I don’t think so, especially if the despair is of your own making. It only protects you from external demons.
by lizzie on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Now sbs show newsltd
Frankly i take my daughters advice veg out and watch mindless stuff
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:59 pm
:59 pm | Permalink
Now sbs show newsltd poll
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 6:59 pm
Roy Obison
Are you balmy?
I made a comment (fairly obvious really) that it would be 9 years before Labor in Qld was in a position to take office (assuming they double their seats next election (3 years) double again the election next (6 years) and then double again three years later (to have 56/89).
The Rudd stuff was simply an overly patient reply to wacky stuff pushed by Mysay and others about Kevin becoming Premier in Qld.
Fairly obvious really and it is imbecilic for you to expect me to explain myself.
by daretotread on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:00 pm
It was a while ago.
meher baba knows when it was.
Pretending innocence doesn’t cut it.
meher baba should just fess up.
I did give a stuff at the time;
I did think that, well ok if I offended William, then maybe I should pull my head in,
After all “bitch” isn’t a word to get to carried on about.
Since then, though, meher baba has done a fair few character assassinations, albeit without mentioning the bitch word.
I’m just calling meher baba out on it.
S/he know when it was.
And bitch isn’t a misogynist word in the female community.
by kezza2 on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:01 pm
Looks as if ABC tonight is only for the brave.
Rinehart on 4C, Brandis on QandA.
Fairfax on MediaWatch – not sure.
by lizzie on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:02 pm
Seems like I just walked out of one room and went forty years back into Brother Roland’s history class. Not that I was paying attention then, either. I was counting the cars and trucks going along Bunnerong Road. But what they are saying here tonight may well have been the same things that were being said in that classroom.
by Roy Orbison on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:02 pm
Of course it’s a shot at the Government. The Libs have no consciences to examine.
by zoomster on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:02 pm
My fave ever example of that was Norman “Gold Gold Gold” May’s call of a race where listeners did not have a clue who won but we knew that the Aussie swimmer swam a personal best for a bronze.
by poroti on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:03 pm
(But Opposition Leader Tony Abbott today gave no indication he would change any part of his policy. In what appeared to be a shot at the Government, he told MPs they should examine their consciences on the issue. )
O that is such a priestly word
But who is he asking
So whats on their consciences
Upsetting him or te luberal party
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:03 pm
lizzie
you can watch leveson. Or hire a movie. Go out. etc. I will be watching Leveson myself not into masochism.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:04 pm
@crk5: A tropical storm named Debbie is currently threatening the US city of Dallas. I’m not even kidding!
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:04 pm
I’ve found it:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/03/21/morgan-face-to-face-54-46-to-coalition-2/comment-page-12/#comments
Post #567. Make of it what you will. I’m still working through the aftermath of it.
Seems Kezza has a long memory.
by Aguirre on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:05 pm
my say
I guess there are two main reasons for my choice of avatar.
1). While I am not a follower i have always admired the real MB and some of those artistic types who follow him: especially The Who (and I was devastated when Pete Townshend was accused of being a cyber nonce: although I believe he has now been cleared).
2). When I first posted on an online forum, it was after years of reading them in a nervous silence. My real world persona has.held a number of publicly-accountable positions and I’m not really supposed to comment on web forums. The real Meher Baba took a vow of silence for many years so my choice of avatar was a subtle dig at myself.
by meher baba on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:05 pm
lizzie
Ah. Have ordered 5Kg of garlic and one gross pentagrams.
by Boerwar on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:05 pm
The silence of your usual interlocutors is more of the “Oh shit, not BW on the bloody British again” rather than the “Case closed” variety, I think.
I’d accuse you of “looking for a gratuitous, pointless argument, just for the bloody-minded sake of it”, but if that was a crime, then we’d all be in the clink.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:05 pm
My all time prize for Olympic commentary by Australians was when they said wtte that, as they couldn’t possibly be expected to pronounce a certain diver’s name, they would call him “Smith” or similar for the duration.
by zoomster on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:05 pm
Boerwar
It woz the crazy Ivans wot won it. Davai !!
by poroti on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:05 pm
When we where at school the priest came say once a week
If the nuns said we had been naughty
The priest would say well girls exxamine your conscious,
Giggle giggle smirk smirk
So tone is tellng his troops they areb naughty
Is this this the ones wanting to disobey
It the funny side i see
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:07 pm
A joker that has a subtle dig at himself is a bloody good joker, in my book.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:08 pm
meher baba
I may not often agree with your opinions but keep on posting !!!
by poroti on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:08 pm
The real Meher Baba took a vow of silence for many years so my choice of avatar was a subtle dig at myself.
I understand
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:09 pm
If you’re going to watch the show lizzie, you need to keep the PB patented Political Blooodsucker Elimination Kit handy: Wooden stake, Garlic and Holy Water (provided Boers hasn’t drunk all of it).
by smithe on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:10 pm
Thanks Aguirre. So all I said at the time was “wash your mouths out with soap” (a light-hearted comment if ever there was one).. I did not call for you to be banned. Others also complained. William clearly took unilateral action.
What a beat up! Get over yourself, why don’t you.
by meher baba on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:10 pm
The ban came at post #756. I think it’s a bit rich to blame it on Meher Baba.
by Aguirre on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:11 pm
poroti
Well, IMHO, it was an Allied team effort.
by Boerwar on Jun 25, 2012 at 7:11 pm