Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
If The Opposition becomes the Govt, Joe Hockey will the kiddies water, fruit plus a big bucket of KFC now that #Chickengate for you
by The Finnigans on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:04 am
dtt@146,
Bollocks. The ALP aren’t that sentimental. I know that for a rolled gold fact.
by C@tmomma on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:04 am
by Leroy on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:04 am
Because lies and dirty tricks are what keeps them ahead in the OpPolls? If their MSM backers didn’t believe this, why, every NewsPoll week do we speculate about what lies and dirty tricks NewsLtd & Abbott will try during that week?
Why would Gina buy into Fairfax, if not to try to ensure the end of the Gillard government and its CP & MRRT legislation? How much of that is about who is Oz’s most powerful woman?
IMO, Abbott and the MSM know that, without the lies, dirty tricks and refusal to tell/ print the truth about the Prime Minister and Government, they would be ahead of the Opposition in the polls.
Roll on Leveson Inquiry recommendations and Steve Conroy’s new media legislation. If what’s being said about too much UK media’s being concentrated in a single owner’s/ company’s hands, as well as calls for empires like Murdoch’s to be forcibly broken up, things aren’t looking good for Oz’s media giants, esp NewsLtd, if Conroy uses Leveson’s recommendations as a template for ours.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:04 am
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/pressure-on-libs-for-boat-solution/story-e6freuzr-1226407140237
by Leroy on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:06 am
BH@149,
So does that mean that News Ltd tabloids now give themselves carte blanche to print and produce any old ‘unconfirmed’ rubbish and put it on the front page if they feel like it?
by C@tmomma on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:07 am
Another correct prediction from moi: the first response of power companies will be “discounted” electricity.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/sydneys-west-pays-for-chill-factor-with-highest-average-electricity-bills-in-the-country/story-e6freuy9-1226406969916
The Big Switch organization is “humbled” by 65,000 Daily Telegraph readers signing up to their campaign for bulk discounts “to avoid the Carbon Tax” (forget about the more frequent and greater price rises bunged-on by Barry O’Farrell), and the electricity companies will eventually say (at a time decided by their PR advisors) “We feel your pain”, and cave.
This will only last for a year or so before the lazy Neanderthals who run the state-based electricity companies realize they have to actually DO something about reducing carbon emissions.
The state governments will also twig that they’ve bled too much out of the stone. The Feds are compensating the consumers. The States are not. It’s a fairly simple equation. Whatever it is, the next price rise will be about 1/10th Carbon Tax and the rest will belong to the States. They can’t run from this fundamental truth forever.
The householders know it in their hearts of hearts. Their kids come home from school and tell them about how they reduce consumption in the library and the classrooms. Why can’t Mum and Dad do the same thing, instead of just whingeing about rising prices and refusing to change their profligate electricity habits?
A nicely-timed ad campaign by the Commonwealth government wouldn’t hurt, either. I have a vision of an animated pie chart. The pie is the price rise. Then they break it up into slices. One of the slices is the increase due to the Carbon Tax. It opens out to about half way as the Carbon Tax registers (I can here the “Skype” sound effect going “up”). Then the compensation kicks in. It closes up again, to nothing (“Skype”sound effect going “down”). All the rest you’re paying is due to the state governments’ greed.
The smart guys – business managers and savvy scientific types – that are currently being ignored (along with their emissions reduction ideas) at various electricity producer HQs will have their day, and then take over their current bosses’ jobs.
You can only discount for so long. Eventually the knife reaches the bone. Then you have to do something, instead of taking the cheap (in every way) option of running a campaign in a shit-sheet like the Daily Telegraph.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:08 am
Muskie
Not my understanding. Its the basic reason the Greens have their OnShore policy.
The treaty says you accept genuine refugees that arrive on your shores.
I am happy to be corrected when you find that is not part of the Treaty.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:08 am
I have decided that if the ALP caucus want Australia to vote for Tony Abbott and that they are not willing to do anything about that then I am at peace with it.
If they want to lose both chambers of parliament and their entire reform agenda for the last 5 years I am peace with that.
If they are unwilling to admit they are wrong and wear the consequences of an all-powerful Tony Abbott that screws the poor and gives $75k to the ritchest mums in Australia then I am at peace with that.
If they are willing to roll over and die, then I am at peace with that.’
I hope they believe in an afterlife. I hope they have been good before their maker. Because after Tony Abbott (with Murdoch and Reinhart as official opposition) they are going to need an afterlife because their present life won’t be worth living.
by bluegreen on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:09 am
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/palmer-bolt-to-lecture-liberals-20120624-20wfm.html
Clive Palmer, the well known moderate
by Leroy on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:11 am
janice2. Spot on. The people in camps are typically ten times more in need of relief from persecution and resettlement. In a third country than are the the middle class folk with the wherewithal to catch a plane and then make a $10k boat trip.
Phillip Ruddock, with all his faults, has always understood this and has tried in vain to get Amnesty International and other bleeding heart groups to agree with him.
As I have been posting recently, the core of the bleeding heart response is the Christian concept that one is obliged to provide sanctuary to anyone who arrives on your doorstep and ask for it. According to this mindset, choosing to make the journey automatically qualifies you to a place at the banquet, end of story Some would cell it humane, but I would call it irrational and unjust.
This mindset strongly influences secular groups like Amnesty International, the Greens etc. I found this out by intensively questioning all my friends who belong to these organizations. If you undermine all their other arguments, they will eventually admit, reluctantly, that they are simply uncomfortable with the idea of anyone who comes on a boat being turned away.
A footnote: there is a small group of pro-boat people advoctes with whom I have a lot more sympathy (although I still dont agree with them). These are the Jewish people who fear a repetition of the 1930s when boatloads of people escaping from Nazi Germany were turned away from Anglo countries It was these people and thrir sympathizes who got the UN refugee framework up and running. Good on them but, in my view, the world has moved on.
by meher baba on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:12 am
off to work – have a great day All
by womble on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:12 am
How many lies & fabrication can #NewsCorpse manufactured before you call it a trusted news source #auspol
by The Finnigans on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:12 am
OPT
I so hope that Conroy and Roxon do use Leveson reccomendations. Good work that should be taken advantage of. I have sent an email to Senator Conroy telling him so.
I do think this will put more spine in Conroy and Roxon’s back.
Maybe the spines are going to resemble the steel of Wolverine by the time News is finished.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:13 am
They have been doing it for years, and years, they don’t care about you, they care about what they can con you into buying.
I still don’t believe that I am the most cynical man in the country.
by grey on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:13 am
More Lies From The Terrorgraph
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:14 am
Hi William
Re: the Lyne poll
Gillespie hasn’t been confirmed as the Nats candidate but I think he is short odds. He isn’t much of a politician – a glass jaw and I know there is a certain amount of dirt that is going to be thrown.
I like the symmetry of the 55-45 result nationally and in Lyne. Oakey’s future is inexerably linked to Labor.
This poll also had 11% undecided which were split proportionally to the candidates. I think ROs share of these are higher. The absolute haters and lovers have made their decision and the undecided will decide on his performance as a local member rather than party considerations.
Having said that there is already evidence that the Nats are going to pour an absolute fortune into the electorate -not so much for strategic purposes but because they hate RO.
They did this in Port Macquarie for the state election but still only got 55-45. The state member this produced is seen as an absolute dud which should give a little boost to RO.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:14 am
Thankfully, the Reef’s World Heritage Listed, so within the HCA’s remit and the UN’s, which is already stroppy about soil and ag contamination. I doubt even Palmer could buy the HCA & UNESCO.
Just because Palmer’s bought the LNP it doesn’t mean he’s beyond national & international laws; quite the contrary.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:15 am
As it’s less than one week to go until Carbon Price Day, I just thought I’d bring you this reminder of 2 things:
1. Tony Abbott is a di*khead.
2. What he was saying before the Price on Carbon came into law.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRMI4Z7ri8A
by C@tmomma on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:17 am
A good ol’ Pork Barrel?
by Lynchpin on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:18 am
The end game for the right is fast approaching. Total media saturation. One message.
What will the ALP do about it?
by middle man on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:18 am
http://ministers.treasury.gov.au/wmsDisplayDocs.aspx?doc=pressreleases/2012/051.htm&pageID=003&min=wms&Year=&DocType=0
by Leroy on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:19 am
Won’t work. They’ll take the money and vote her out anyway.
by bluegreen on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:19 am
Is the big front page headline in the deadwood OO shouting “Abbott won’t budge on boats.” a + or a – for Tones ? In smaller print there was mention of Bob Carr calling for a bipartisan approach. It would be a plus for the hard core supporters but for the non hard core,many of whom want a bipartisan approach, it seems to me a pretty damaging headline for the LOTO.
by poroti on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:21 am
Bushfire Bill,
Still on for Sunday?
by C@tmomma on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:22 am
Poroti
It doesn’t matter. Gillard is PM. Public assumes blame and responsibility is all hers.
by bluegreen on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:23 am
my FIL regularly loves to announce that 90% of the world are morons. and one day I quipped – and the other 10% are know it alls.
I think I know where most PB posters sit.
by middle man on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:23 am
146
Now its becauce she is a woman,
Give me strength
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:24 am
Blue green on his hobby horse
On tbe merry go round
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:25 am
by Leroy on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:27 am
Geez Bluegreen, you are in Supernihilist form this morning!
by Lynchpin on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:28 am
Leroy
It shows us how “moderate” is now defined within the Liberal Party of 2012
by poroti on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:28 am
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/jun/25/cameron-tories-slash-benefits
Joe hockeys mate
Even uses the same words.
Tweeting this link woukd be gold
Joe has this in mi nd, but did they meet up in the uk
Lovley gov the have in the uk
Expect the copy cat , re abbott
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:28 am
If the Labor caucus have chosen to dive headfirst into the abyss without a second thought…
then I am at peace with that.
by bluegreen on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:33 am
Victoria
If the next Labor leader is Combet they will have made a wise choice PROVIDED it is long term ie when Combet loses he stays in to run the rebuild. What would be folly is to use Combet up by having him lead to defeat then chuck him out.
Now as you can tell I like Combet, but doubt he could win an election just now. Combet is for the long haul . He gives a sense of security etc but that takes quite a while to sink in with the voters. He would need a year plain sailing.
by daretotread on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:33 am
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/jun/22/phone-hacking-20-more-alleged-victimes-sue
More more
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:34 am
my say
That should be moar moar
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:36 am
Combet would need the ALP to commit to a long term investment. Not something they have shown they can do recently. But he’s my pick.
by middle man on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:37 am
dtt
As I said, next one in line is Combet
by victoria on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:38 am
victoria and Dtt
Combet after the election win or lose?
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:39 am
What’s all this Combet stuff?
Leadershit beat-up by another name?
by kezza2 on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:39 am
The next one in line is Abbott.
by bluegreen on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:39 am
I’m not sure where this comes from.
No politician who aspires to be leader of a party or government gets to require any such commitment.
If they get the chance, they have to seize the moment and run with it. You don’t get to dictate terms.
by Jackol on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:40 am
This is embarrassing for Julia Gillard:
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/alp-cans-conference-to-avoid-julia-gillard-visiting-wa/story-e6frg14c-1226406883117
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:42 am
A few Asylum Seeker facts from a very reputable source, the Parliamentary Library:
http://www.aph.gov.au/binaries/library/pubs/bn/sp/asylumfacts.pdf
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/library/prspub/5P1X6/upload_binary/5P1X6.pdf;fileType%3Dapplication/pdf
by C@tmomma on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:42 am
The issue with Newspoll is, why did the Australian publish it today? So far as I remember, it has generally only been published on a Monday to come out at the same time as Fairfax’s Nielsen Poll.
Early publication was obviously meant to influence the political process in some way.
If it was to embarrass PM Gillard, that could have occurred equally as well tomorrow. Dennis Shanahan’s opinion piece today could have been printed tomorrow.
My theory is that it is meant to influence this morning’s Liberal/Coalition party meeting which will obviously consider asylum seekers.
The Australian is taking a very hard line on asylum seekers, in step with Tony Abbott. This is obviously the Murdoch message to the Coalition – don’t give an inch on asylum seekers. Will the Daily Telegraph therefore be brought into line after running Pressure on Libs for boat solution?
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/immigration/tony-abbott-wont-budge-on-boats-as-coalition-tells-labor-to-talk-with-greens/story-fn9hm1gu-1226407102791?from=hot-topics-na
by citizen on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:42 am
bg
I cant wait for the Australian electorate to be f. d over by Abbott. Richly deserved imo.
by victoria on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:43 am
Blow me down with a feather, a News Ltd paper has some dodgy unpleasant thing to say about the PM.
by Jackol on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:43 am
jackol. that is quite true. so if I were him i’d say no thanks.
by middle man on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:44 am
catmomma
Thank you for doing that. A credible fact check source in a debate is always good and a reminder one is available is also always good in turning down the heat in a debate.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:44 am