Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
OMG, the Mining Industry is taken over EVERYTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by The Finnigans on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:35 am
He has just read the multitude of predictions that the world will end in 2012:
http://www.endoftheworld2012.net/2012predictions.htm
by citizen on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:35 am
Hockey’s source could be Julie Bishop – she’s very tight with one Kevin Rudd.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:35 am
Hockey never claimed it will be the last sitting week of the government
by Meguire Bob on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:36 am
by Space Kidette on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:36 am
@abcmarkscott: I have what it takes to run a media organisation in this era. http://t.co/y3nrZ8zW
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:37 am
I would bet on an liberal party leadership challenge before August to try to get the independents on the liberal party side without an election
by Meguire Bob on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:38 am
View details ·
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:38 am
That is the only way using hockey’s word that this could be the current government last sitting week
by Meguire Bob on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:39 am
By the liberal’s getting an new leader to change the government without an election
by Meguire Bob on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:40 am
I’m going to have a stab at new scandal. They think they’ve got something on someone, and they’re going to drop the bomb after this week’s sittings.
It’s the only way that cryptic comment makes sense to me.
by Aguirre on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:40 am
In what context did Hockey say it? And why the need to say it?
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:40 am
Aguirre
Hmm…but I scarcely see him as the ‘go to’ guy for either the indies or disaffected backbenchers.
What if….Hockey thinks he’s going to be about to become LOTO. He thinks that will bring some of the indies across the floor (there’s no way they’d do it for Abbott, but Joe’s such a nice boy). It’s possible that Windsor, at least, could have done the genial smiley ‘you never know, Joe’ thing.
Certainly, if you want to believe something enough, you’ll interpret whatever someone says into an indication that they do too.
So Joe thinks he’ll be LOTO soon and can spend the winter break stitching up the deals required to get a majority in the House, march back in, call a motion of no confidence, and win it.
Not saying any of that’s happening, but that that might be what Joe thinks is.
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:40 am
Abbott looks to be gone , if hockey words are to be taken seriously
by Meguire Bob on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:40 am
by Space Kidette on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:41 am
Or what Meguire Bob’s saying. New Lib leader might be able to bring the Indies on side.
by Aguirre on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:41 am
Forget the explosive info angle – that’s just BS.
Even if the indies withdrew support during the winter recess it would still require a sitting of parliament to make that position clear.
Fat boy is going to send himself blind.
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:41 am
Greens will not compromise. Any solution has to be consistent with International Law as defined by the UN Human Rights Convention. A conventions that Australia was one of the first to sign up to and has a proud history of supporting.
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:42 am
Are the coalition trying a preemptive strike because of the Ashby case?
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:42 am
Bloody carbon tax. Some thieving individual has stolen 2 gigs of my usuage allowance. Have just spent the best part of an hour on the phone with Bigpond – they’ve given me back the 2gigs pro tem while they investigate.
by janice2 on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:43 am
Actually, a change from Abbott to Turnball wouldn’t be great for Gillard – if anything’s preventing the Coalition 2PP vote from approaching the high 50s or low 60s, it’s Abbott’s unpopularity.
I can’t envisage Gillard matching up well against Turnball.
Now, Rudd vs Turnball on the other hand…………which I’d dearly want to happen again.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:43 am
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:43 am
OzPol
How do the general public form a view on what is good or bad policy?
Folks generally get their daily feed of political information from the tv which is generally of late, been bereft of facts and logic.
by Dee on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:45 am
Bad July for Julia polling wise = dumping her in August – this is what Hockey is alluding to.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:45 am
The Finnigans
You will just love the new national anthem
We dig dig dig dig dig dig dig
In our mine the whole day through
To dig dig dig dig dig dig dig is what we like to do
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNvH2ZVxZo4
by poroti on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:45 am
Milne now slamming Abbott brinkmanship and educating the media about success in Minority Government.
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:45 am
I wouldn’t mind seeing Joe leading the Libs. He’s never across anything, and he couldn’t explain any of his party’s positions if his life depended on it. If you want to see the Liberal Party’s policy platform dissolve into a mess of contradictions and vagueness, Joe’s your man. At least Abbott stays on message, no matter how stupid the message is.
Joe gives them hope, and hopes need to be met. He’ll want to try to engage interviewers too, which will be fun to watch.
by Aguirre on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:46 am
You have to laugh at the Libs, pushing this “scandal” thing.
Christ knows how many times it blown up in the faces, yet the lazy, incoherent bastards keep trying.
They must be terrified of having to do some work. The monumental task ahead of them would, by now, be scaring them shitless. Yet Joe shows signs of actually believing his own garbage.
When things start breaking Labor’s way, they’ll break big time. The cracks in the Liberals’ “scandal led recovery” strategy are already starting to appear.
Why don’t you just do some bloody work, you idiots?
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:48 am
@TheKouk: Fairfax shares down 6% to 53 cents.
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:48 am
It is here TLM at 111 – you have to find it
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/chamber/hansardr/a097ab46-bef0-4ed3-b3f0-27f3b075e04e/toc_pdf/House%20of%20Representatives_2012_05_23_1038.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22chamber/hansardr/a097ab46-bef0-4ed3-b3f0-27f3b075e04e/0000%22
by shellbell on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:49 am
janice2
Bloody carbon tax indeed!!
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:49 am
by Space Kidette on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:50 am
Evan that is the problem with you and the rest of the painful doggys. Your outright hatred of PM Gillard.
I am more than happy with a Coalition Govt under Malcolm Trunbull if it means:
1. A bi-partisan policy to Climate Change, ETS, Carbon Price
2. A bi-partisan policy to AS, Refugees and Boat People
3. A bi-partisan policy to gay marriage & same sex equality
4. A bi-partisan policy to the Republik of Australia
We know already where Malcolm stands on these issues.
Whereas you and the rest of the painful doggys have been simply blinded by your hatred. You are simply pathetic.
by The Finnigans on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:51 am
El Slacko has picked up the PvO story.
Blowback for Abbott now starting on AS.
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:52 am
guy, if i have another dig at her, she’ll go berserk
by The Finnigans on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:54 am
Green Presser now a Marriage Equality presser complete with priests,
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:55 am
Hockey’s source – if he has one – is more likely to be Rudd. They seemed to have resumed the old close relationship Howard stomped into the ground.
BTW, I think the round of leadershite stirring it more likely inspired by that friendship, or by Galaxy’s and/ or Nielsen’s intentions to run polls this week.
Or maybe the Libs think all Abbott’s scare campaigns are about to come true.
BTW, when did Hockey start telling the truth? As far as I know from the last few days commnts, that miracle hasn’t happened yet.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:58 am
Evan you FOOL!
Julie Bishop and Dopey Joe hate each others guts.
They all hate each other on your side of politics. Oh depending which skitzo Evan is commenting today.
by Centre on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:58 am
anyone listening to Faine ATM ?
what an unbelieveable nitwit thats just called
by Mick Collins on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:59 am
You guys are funny. Hockey does hyperbole and the sky starts falling.
by bluegreen on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:59 am
There is no way a change of Liberal leader would get Oakeshott or Windsor to support a Coalition government. These blokes have suffered almost two years of constant abuse from the Coalition. I don’t know what Windsor has endured, but I know Rob Oakeshott has been vilified in the local media and on a daily basis by Jones and Hadley. His family have received threatening phone calls, he’s had death threats, he’s been lied about. Why would he suddenly want to embrace the very people who have orchestrated all that? I’d say Windsor has received similar treatment.
In case some of you haven’t noticed the Nats have just set up an anti-Oakeshott website asking for donations and volubnteer workers to get rid of him at the next election. And you think he’d be persuaded to support them. In your dreams.
The same reasoning that applied back in September 2010 still applies – the indies know exactly what would happen if they decided to support a Coalition government. Whoever might be leader would call an immediate election and the Coalition would do it’s very best to try and get these two defeated.
by leone on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:59 am
Tony Abbott is an obsequious (sp?) C$%^%
by Mick Collins on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:01 am
@latikambourke: Oh. RT @cameronbest: Why Porn and Journalism Have the Same Big Problem http://t.co/Zj1WufYT
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:02 am
More fun
@annabelcrabb: Clive Palmer’s just called a press conference for this arvo. Not sure what about, we’ll have to wait for the backdrop
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:04 am
by Space Kidette on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:05 am
@latikambourke OK, if this doesnt put a smile on your face
nothing will – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POGN07WqvWs – The Greatest love of them all
by The Finnigans on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:05 am
@GreenJ: holden! good lord. RT @michellegriff: Andrew Holden is The Age’s new editor-in-chief, Steve Foley the news director. #Fairfax
@abcnews: Network Ten says Rinehart acquired another 39 million shares at a cost of nearly $20 million
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:05 am
by Space Kidette on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:06 am
Hard to keep up today.
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:06 am
Andrew Holden announced as Editor of The Age.
For a split second I missheard his name and thought Faine had said Andrew “Bolt”
My heart skiped a beat
by Mick Collins on Jun 26, 2012 at 11:07 am