Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2163966/Tony-Blair-denies-stopping-lawyer-telling-ministers-legality-Iraq-War.html
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:44 am
Evan Parsons Project
It is also a complete beat up.
Canberra politicians from both sides are anathema in WA.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:45 am
kezza. i’m sitting very patiently waiting for Julia to get back in front. and I sincerely hope she does.
by middle man on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:47 am
FCS it is 16 months till the election.
If anyone is in any doubt about the regime-change motives of News Ltd (not to mention Rinehart moving onto the Fairfax board without signing the Charter of Editorial Independence – and it is rumoured the editors of both The Age and the SMH are to be removed) then Shanahan’s ridiculous article falsely attributing words of Barosso to further deride JG and Steve Lewis’ blatant lies should ram it home to you.
It’s almost getting to the point where we are going to have to hold protest rallies about saving democracy from the fourth estate.
by kezza2 on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:47 am
c@tmomma – that’s the frightening aspect of the story and no doubt it will be used constantly unless Conroy puts in place the regulations to stop it.
by BH on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:48 am
#193
In NSW state conferences are not held in an election year for obvious reasons. I presume it is the same in WA. That a Perth journalist gives this interpretation and TLM both believes and exalts in it says a lot. One can imagine the mutual wanging at TLM’s favourite facebook pages.
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:48 am
In front of a Mack Truck.
by bluegreen on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:49 am
I think this bit is a good reminder of how Howard and successors have distorted and vilified people to gain votes to stay in power.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:50 am
kezza. as i posted. the right have almost got what they want. total message control.
i asked ‘what will the ALP do?”
maybe I need to ask “what CAN the ALP do?”
by middle man on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:51 am
Guytaur
How does this apply to someone who has made it from Afghanistan, through Malaysia and into Indonesia?
by bluegreen on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:51 am
No kezza
Its not,
But i agree with vic,
There is no way julia will out herself first
She is a labor person through abd through.
She also cares about aust.
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:51 am
bg. grow up mate.
by middle man on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:52 am
PUT HERSELF FIRST
Julia never has
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:52 am
They chose not to do it
by bluegreen on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:53 am
bg
exactly as it says.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:53 am
guytaur
Well, this seems pretty robust to me:
But it’s a moot point. If Assange is not in Australia, Australia has no role in preventing his extradition, other than making diplomatic noises.
If he is in Australia, the normal processes would be followed. They’re very clear; this country does not extradite people to another country if there is even a faint chance the death penalty would be on the cards. It has to be ruled out as an option before that can happen.
by zoomster on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:53 am
I have rationally evaluated the options facing the ALP.
The ALP caucus have chosen tribal loyalties over wanting to win an election.
Others need to face the realities and grow up. I am not one of them.
by bluegreen on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:55 am
zoomster
Indeed a moot point. So nothing to lose by being as robust in the opposition to the death penalty Australia has been in the past. From both sides of politics.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:55 am
For Qlders who are feeling the Newman pain
https://twitter.com/AnitaHeiss/status/217033120250200064/photo/1
by BH on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:56 am
Guytaur
You view is where ideology and reality divide.
by bluegreen on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:56 am
Bg
Why do you go on and on and on about this? Do you think you can influence anyone important? Do you not think it might be a tad boring for other posters?
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:57 am
zoomster
A reminder I did say for the public perception. A perception that has formed unrelated to the reality of the matter.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:57 am
Couple of good quotes from Watermelon Man on Twitter:
Plus Andrew Elder’s latest:
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2012/06/journalism-beyond-newspapers.html
by C@tmomma on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:58 am
bg
That was direct from the Parliament House Library.
So no not my ideology.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:58 am
bg
You want your beloved fibs to win, so what do you care who leads Labor. Seriously?
by victoria on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:58 am
Labor goes backwards during a fortnight in which millions of voters got extra money in their bank accounts & Gillard was strutting the international stage – not great at all.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 25, 2012 at 9:59 am
Guytaur
And it didn’t apply to the people who current group of people who make the journey to Xmas Is from Indonesia.
It is factual for many refugees but not for those particular asylum seekers.
by bluegreen on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:00 am
I still have faith in things happening re the media.
I suspect the sackings will be more and i think the commuter papers
In want of another word will come sooner than tbey plan
I also have faith i sen. Conroy and his staff
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:00 am
bg
Look for yourself
http://www.aph.gov.au/binaries/library/pubs/bn/sp/asylumfacts.pdf
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:05 am
my say
Hear hear!
And we need to ask, all of us, all sides of the political spectrum what can WE do to restore honesty in reporting?
Take, for instance, News Ltd in Victoria thoroughly bludgeoning Ted Baillieu on a daily basis – and they can argue that they not being biased against Labor federally but “keeping any govt accountable”
But, the issue is not about keeping the govt accountable, that’s expected – the issue is that they’re bludgeoning a sitting government with no attempt to elucidate policy to the electorate.
That’s an abuse of power. And only the power of the people can overcome it, not any political party.
by kezza2 on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:05 am
I do not want an Abbott-lead party to win. (Unlike the ALP caucus).
So yes, I do care.
by bluegreen on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:06 am
I long ago established in my thinking some people where only a labor badge
For show:-)
Keep remember evil in the end is defeated,
But good people must not be silent
Twitter is the new telegram boy
by my say on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:06 am
Gillard & Rudd attending a Paraolympics event this morning in Canberra – interesting.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:07 am
womble
Depends on how you define ‘the problem’, doesn’t it?
I define it as ‘deaths at sea’.
If the majors are prepared to tackle it, and the Greens are not, then it’s obvious that the majors care more about deaths at sea than the Greens do.
by zoomster on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:07 am
Bluegreen: welcome to the “Labor Traitors Club” – other members are reputed to be myself, Shows On, MTBW, Vera, Daretotread, Thomas Paine.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:08 am
bg
Your gripe is that you do not want An Abbott Led Liberal govt. so you should really be focussing your attention on your own party. Labor makes its own decisions.
by victoria on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:09 am
zoomster
IF you define the problem as deaths at sea the solutions are very evident.
Establish processing centres in Indonesia and Malaysia. While you are negotiating to do so you in the meantime provide planes and safe boats for passage. That is if you really care about the problem of deaths.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:09 am
https://twitter.com/AnitaHeiss/status/217033120250200064/photo/1
That’s fantastic
Love it.
by kezza2 on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:10 am
Evan
Bg, like you suports the Libs.
by victoria on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:10 am
BG, I know you are pretty cranky, but this is just plain silly:
So, what’s the answer. What can ALP do to avoid the tories winning?
by Lynchpin on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:10 am
my say & BH,
I would like to have faith that Senator Conroy could get some sort of ‘Public Interest Test’ media legislation through parliament. The Greens have, opportunistically, come out with a position today, pre-empting Leveson etc which the government are probably waiting for before they move. However, with the PayTV market being dominated by Murdoch I believe that the legislation needs to move beyond a Public Interest Test and back into a multiplicity of voices model somehow that will allow loud voices to compete with the already and coming ones of Murdoch and Rinehart.
How to get players like Essential TV and other Progressive TV players into a position to challenge the entrenched conservative players is the quandry which needs to be resolved IMHO.
Maybe it will eventually get to the point where the multiplicity of options, as I see Collingwood FC have their own TV station, for example, will eventually produce an equilibrium. Especially if people don’t have to pay for it and advertising subsidises it instead.
With this option it is obvious why Murdoch wants to kill at birth the NBN.
by C@tmomma on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:11 am
Lynchpin
To clarify. Bg wants Labor to change leaders because he believes that will make the coalition change leaders too.
by victoria on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:11 am
You have to appreciate the PB view of the world. Gillard is a brilliant leader but yet continues to be unpopular and Newman is a dudd but is very popular. That biased MSM has much to answer for.
by davidwh on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:13 am
bg – don’t worry so much. Christine Milne has said she will work co-operatively with Tony Abbott! You’ll be OK – she will look after you if that nasty Abbott tries to harm you. I just wish she’d work more co-operatively with Labor instead of trying so hard to put them down to get their votes. She likes to take all the credit for the carbon price so perhaps she should take a bit more of the flack.
Just saw SHY on the doors. Holier than thou, as usual, but she is really only saying the same as Labor which wants regional processing with international bodies checking on AS while they are waiting for placement.
by BH on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:13 am
kezza. spot on. writing BS about both sides isn’t being balanced.
by middle man on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:13 am
The WA ALP cancels their state conference in order not to be seen with PM.
That’s cold. Not surprising though when you see federal poll with WA at 19% primary vote (That’s around 12% of the vote lost since the last election)
by spur212 on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:13 am
Evan Troll Labor Man and bg must have hated it that Kevin the Kuddly Koala spent the whole week on Twitter posting saccharine pics of him and his sick cat, plus sleeping out in the cold and dropping a ‘Kevin Gets Fit’ story to the meeja, and it had absolutely no effect on Newspoll in this anniversary week of his demise.
by C@tmomma on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:14 am
catmomma
I do not thing the Greens are being opportunistic. It is the former leader Bob Brown who brought up the label hate media and has attacked the media in a robust manner for its false reporting.
So really for the Greens it is just more putting their view. They want a fair accurate and balanced media just as much as Labor supporters do.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:14 am
Re: Fairfax/News Ltd/newspapers in general:
What we need, more than anything, in this country right now is a TV series (either satire or drama, probably doesn’t matter which) that pulls apart the newspaper industry. Set in a fictional large newspaper office, a warts-and-all account of how news actually travels through the media to the consumer.
I remember the impact that Frontline had on the current affairs industry. We all had a fairly good idea of the venality of the ACA/TT set-ups, but to see it all explicitly laid out for us – and mercilessly satirised – completely took the sting out of both programs.
The world is crying out for a fictionalised Lewis, or Shanahan. The subject is topical. There might be some trouble in heightening the subject matter, if the real world is going to throw up comedy on the order of the Convoy of No Consequence, or Ashby, or Kathy Jackson. How do you top that? But I think a show like that would go a long way toward changing attitudes.
by Aguirre on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:15 am
I don’t agree with that. It will just confirm that Abbott has Labor spooked. It will cement Abbott’s position. If Rudd was to become leader, the MSM and Abbott and the right of the party would just take up where they left off in June 2010. It would be merciless, just as it was then. We are between a rock and a hard place, no doubt.
People should be under no illusion that a return to Rudd would somehow make things easier for the Govt. It won’t. It will make things harder.
I have no axe to grind against Rudd. He will forever be a hero of mine for defeating Howard.
by Lynchpin on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:16 am