Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
CC
Every dollar counts.
by Dee on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:17 pm
dtt
As per the court documents there are some names that have been blocked out. We dont know who these people are. Will be interesting to find out though
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:17 pm
DTT, nobody needs to play it “carefully” anymore. It is before the Court and it will decide.
by The Finnigans on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:18 pm
Compact Crank
Compared to the cost of boilermaker/welders and steel the cost of the carbon component in electricity bills would be vanishingly small.
by poroti on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:18 pm
report into complaints mechanism against federal judges:
http://www.nswbar.asn.au/circulars/2012/jun/complaints.pdf
by shellbell on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:19 pm
FFS Flipper
Low end means low end politically.
Jeebus wept. Scandals like this do not bring down governments- not unless Abbott was directly involved.
Stop clutching at straws. Ashby is a nice counter to Thomson. Good worth a % or so for Labor. But not more. Get real
by daretotread on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:20 pm
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:20 pm
dtt, tough titties. we are loving the MOARs
by The Finnigans on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:22 pm
OH REALLY!!!!????
by ShowsOn on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Flipper
I assume that if Ashby and Deane were to be prosecuted for conspiracy etc it would need a separate court action by the Comm. Your Act summary suggests that the Comm would have a good case but not sure if it is POLITICALLY wise
by daretotread on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Vic, SK, thanks for the Fed Court links, good to see them entering the online age …
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:22 pm
MM
No worriea. Makes very interesting reading.
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:23 pm
Victoria
Very true
The blocked out names could be dynamite -
by daretotread on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:25 pm
@2409 – isn’t the DPP above politics if the ALP is in Government?
by Compact Crank on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Compact Crank – my kid and her husband run a steel fabrication business. The factory is so busy, with so many orders, that he has put on more employees. They are not a bit worried about the carbon tax cos they taken good advice on it. It might cost them a bit extra on their elec bills, but they reckon it’s their contribution to their kids future world.
OH and I extremely proud of them.
by BH on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:27 pm
from Gussie
by The Finnigans on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:27 pm
I seen turnbull walked to robb and a deep discusiion during question
by Meguire Bob on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:29 pm
at last ABC has discovered jacksonville
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-26/simon-cullen-hsu/4093190
by Lyne Lady on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:29 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-26/simon-cullen-hsu/4093190
It hits the MSM…
by Leroy on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:30 pm
noddy looked unwell in qt today – his right eye problem was very noticeable – worried?? nervous?? probably both…
by Lyne Lady on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:30 pm
ABC Fail this not reported at presser this morning.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/breaking-news/abbott-confronted-by-chicken-little/story-e6freuz0-1226409155032
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:32 pm
@2416 – two front benchers conferring, one of whom is a failed LOTO who the ALP/Greens would give their eye teeth to hav back as LOTO to use as a patsy again – obviously a LEADERSHIP CHALLENGE.
by Compact Crank on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Wow, the MOARs are really ROARING, first Ashby/Slipper/Brough & now Jackson/HSU hits ABC – http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-26/simon-cullen-hsu/4093190
Vic, cant handle too much MOARs
by The Finnigans on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:34 pm
cc
More substance than Kevin Rudd visiting the gym.
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:34 pm
More on Jacksonville and on Their ABC too! Today just keeps on getting better and better.
by leone on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:35 pm
BH,
I’m proud of your cherub and OH too!
by Space Kidette on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:36 pm
One more time from Bernard
Same view from Malcolm Fraser, CH, etc
Recant, “Mod Lib” , hide in shame or just go ahead and put on that snazzy black Hugo Boss designed uniform http://gawker.com/5843124/hugo-boss-apologizes-for-making-nazis-look-fabulous
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Constipated Crank @ 2398
Why do you bother posting here? There are places for people like yourself and they include Menzies House and of course the Andrew Bolt blog.
by Peter of Marino on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Just when a journo is looking for a metaphor…
by Leroy on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:37 pm
leone
The politics this year just keeps on being more and more interesting.
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:37 pm
compact crank is finally starting to feel grief, as he been trying to give grief to the labor supporters
by Meguire Bob on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Wow, did you guys catch QT?
This is how I scored it, I will work in reverse this time there is a reason?
Firstly there were some excellent performers including Combet, Bradbury and the PM, but I allocate the following:
- 1 point to Simon Crean. He went last but he cut directly right through the Monkey.
- 2 points to Albanese. He named Steve Lewis, the potential end to his grubby career and certainly any decent reputation if he had any.
- 3 points…. drum roll…. to …. help yourself to a cuppa……………. Julie Bishop.
Did you see the smile on Julie’s face, can anybody read body language?
She was delirious with joy! I’m already set with a little on at the $51 for her to lead the Liberals to the election
by Centre on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:38 pm
How will the Murdoch press report the conspiracy between Ashby and Lewis? Will it be as big a story as the page one leads on kids drinks at Parliament House? It may not be a conspiracy – strictly legally – but to the untrained legal eye it seems damn close to one. If this happened in the UK, it would feature with Leveson big time. Albo and Swan have both had a crack in the last two days, just words – wonder if they’ll go further?
by al palster on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:38 pm
news is getting round
@ZacharyQuinto: it is all happening.
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Did I pick up from the conversations here that Ashby and his Co worker send text messages about Slipper that pre date the alleged harassment events discussing what they might do from Assn employment perspective? If so THEN we have the conspiracy, if they were sending text messages between themselves after the alleged events then they have a defence. Either way it’s brown faecal matter hitting rotational cooling device.
by Smaug on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Reading the court documents it appears Slipper has got all this info from Ashby’s Iphone from the affadavit of Mr Rodney McKemmish which was served by the Applicant (Ashby).
So Ashby has known all along this info would be available to Slipper & the Gov because he provided it as part of his case.
by kevjohnno on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Delete the word “steel” and you would be closer to the mark.
by Lynchpin on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:42 pm
Al # 2432 – In Albo we trust.
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:42 pm
I guess it’s not a cobra strike or a python squeeze but a warm hug from a pooch.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/carbon-tax-to-hurt-canberran-castaways-20120626-20zrk.html
by killerbees on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:42 pm
Centre, did you see Bronnie with her Toilet Training Manual? It seems to get thicker & thicker
by The Finnigans on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Geez, CC. Dumber about welding than a 70 yo woman!
IMO, you don’t know enough about welding – or try to pretend you don’t to make a very dumb political point and ballsed that up – to be let anywhere a welder.
OH & I welded all the verandah & staircase box steel railings – and other stuff, likeframes for machines he made, and the boilers for his 7.25 inch gauge steam locomotives.
As well as old Arc electric, OH used (MIG) and TIG. We sadly returned his gas bottles after his death. Don’t miss the BOC gas bills, though.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Some wise words from Father Bob Maguire
http://www.welcometoaustralia.org.au/index.php
by leone on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Lynchpin @ 2436
by Gecko on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Dont pickup, it is all here in all of its public glory – http://www.fedcourt.gov.au/courtdocuments/ashby_cth.html
by The Finnigans on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:44 pm
If we are correct, like some have said here on PB, including myself
that the Monkey will go before xmas;
this blog could actually be considered as the number 1 political source in the country.
Like so many other successful predictions and great analysis – remember, you read it right here first
by Centre on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Finns, it’s all equipped with everything you need to know about nursing homes
by Centre on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:46 pm
by Dee on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Abbott patted a rat at the RSPCA. I bet the rat now feels dirty and used.
Scroll down to see the picture – the rat doen’t look happy. Also some nice shots of a modern-day Chicken Little.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/politics/blogs/the-pulse/politics-live-june-26-2012-20120626-20z80.html
by leone on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:47 pm
LL
Gee whiz! The ABC finally report on the HSU
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:47 pm
by Dee on Jun 26, 2012 at 3:47 pm