Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
guytaur:
I do not watch 730, so no.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:11 pm
2509 posted a link to:
http://theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/taxpayer-funding-of-ashbys-case-at-risk/story-fn59niix-1226407056892
Am I missing something, or is that the wrongest headline imaginable? As I read Roxon she was saying that Ashby might be dismissed (ie his salary discontinued) – not that the Cth was in any way funding his claim…
by Graeme on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:12 pm
confessions
Clive Palmer was arguing for Editorial Trusts to keep owners from interfering with editorial content.
He was also arguing the liberal party should not have lobbyists in office positions in the party.
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:13 pm
daretotread
Yes, legislation which needs to be amended – changed – to have any effect.
Which is why a rant over the legislation that does exist is meaningless, because that legislation is irrelevant.
What you ‘gather’ the new Act to be about is also meaningless. We don’t have one. Before we get to the stage where one exists, negotiation has to take place with either the Greens or the Coalition, or it won’t ever come to Parliament.
So let’s discuss what the legislation is, and how bad/evil/etc it is, when we actually have something ready to be tabled.
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:14 pm
“That alone should be worth $300,000 and a grovelling front page apology.
You’ve obviously forgotten, Tom, that the Daily Telegraph does not do front page apologies. Ever. That would be like admitting guilt. Career criminals never admit guilt.
by Roy Orbison on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Am I really saying this?
Clive Palmer made a lot of sense tonight on 7:30.
by BK on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Astro
There is no contradiciton between the Minister being their guardian and sending them to Malaysia. They will still be under the care of the Minister, and housed in Australian facilities.
But it’s a moot point; it’s very unlikely that anyone will be in the first 800 in any year, let alone unaccompanied children.
What is more likely is that people smugglers will look elsewhere.
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:17 pm
Trust Labor to get it right.
by fredn on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:17 pm
guytaur:
I heard Palmer interviewed on radio last week where he originally put his view on that.
Dick Smith of all people disagreed with him, but Smith did come off sounding like a bit of a fool. Even Fran Kelly became exasperated with him.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:19 pm
bk
A common reaction on twitter as well. We are not alone.
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:20 pm
puff
Pfftt!!
You haven’t “made it” until one of your tweets gets aired on QandA.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:20 pm
confessions
Dick Smith can make a lot of sense a lot of the time. Sometimes though I wonder what planet he is on.
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:21 pm
A great read. I wonder if the judge in the Ashby case might get around to some comments about Harmers’ approach
http://www.fedcourt.gov.au/courtdocuments/ashby-commonwealth-of-australia/25-June-2012-Additional-Documents-Points-of-Claim-Mr-Peter-Slipper.pdf
by Laocoon on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:21 pm
Zoomster
If you read what I have written, which I am not sure you have, I have not actually advocated for any solution. I actually understand this is a complicated problem and I don’t see any ‘solution’ actually working – in the same way that anti-smoking campaigns won’t end smoking. I don’t see the Malaysian Solution stopping the boats; desperate people are clever and they will work ways around this. If we swap 4000 for 800, what’s to say they don;t put their wives and children in Malaysia and the men come down on boats – the chance their family will be selected will be higher than before. There are probably other ways too.
You also have to remember that these things wax and wane, the numbers may drop in the future as they have in the past.
What I HAVE been trying to do is stop Labor supporters blaming the Greens; an awful, vile and disgusting thing to do.
by Astrobleme on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:21 pm
Wow .Vote 1 Clive. What the fcuk is going on ?
by poroti on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:22 pm
on AS’s, the multiparty comm shouldn’t waste valuable time with the Greens who are only posturing and will only slow the process down
get the wet libs in the HoR to abstain to get it through the house – then that will put enormous public pressure on Abbott and he might cave and let it go through the senate
by Rex Douglas on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Zoomster
“What is more likely is that people smugglers will look elsewhere.”
so they will send them to NZ? To places further afield? Oh great sounds even LESS safe.
by Astrobleme on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Zoomster @ 7849
Just read the last page of posts.
Why don’t you give up? Surely Astrobleme has now convinced you of the impenetrable stupidity of Greens?
by bemused on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:23 pm
fredn – I very glad that ABC/SBS Board appointments bill is finally passed, it was in limbo for ages. Locked in a good process for appointing board members.
by Leroy on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:23 pm
DG
SK got a tweet onto Q&A last night.
by Boerwar on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:25 pm
Laocoon:
In my view Ashby has been very poorly advised. It’s hard for me to feel sympathetic though, given the people he’s apparently sought advice from.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:25 pm
Leroy: So am I. I’m fed up with what the ABC has become.
by fredn on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:26 pm
This from the boerwar last night:
I find this very unsettling, even when trying to put aside boerwar’s possible pathological hatred for anything which he identifies as “british” in Australian culture, the “Victoria” part of the Victoria Cross.
At the 2011 census 2.5% identified themselves as Buddhist, 2.2% as Muslims, 1.3% as Hindus etc.
I find it really strange and actually somewhat threatening, following the boerwar person’s argument, that we should change ultimately everything in our culture and history that, in itself is harmless (e.g. the “cross”) because some sensitive person of a totally different cultural tradition would be offended.
I do not know whether boerwar meant only muslims had the right to object to our cultural traditions or that applied to all religions (except, of course I assume, christianity).
I am an atheist but have no trouble accepting our heritage. It is both good and bad. Such is life.
I assume in current Australia i am pretty “leftish”, if that has any meaning today, but I am totally mystified why some of those who call themselves “left” have this sort of hypersensitive reverence for a religion that is even more repressive, anti science and homophobic than main stream Christianity.
I wish someone would enlighten me on this strange stance by some.
by swamprat on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:26 pm
Liberal Party internal polling shows Labor’s “Abbott is in bed with Clive Palmer” line is cutting through.
Why else do you think a story appears about Palmer disagreeing with Abbott, followed by Clive Palmer – CLIVE PALMER – slagging lobbyists.
Take a look at the big picture here folks.
It’s a set up.
by gloryconsequence on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Zoomster
“it’s very unlikely that anyone will be in the first 800 in any year”
This is your assumption. Why don’t you think people will think of a way around this?
Why don’t we just take more from camps so that they don’t hae to wait so long and don’t get on boats?
The policy revolves around punishment. Why not work it off rewarding those who wait?
by Astrobleme on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Yes, fredn. I had no idea though that the bills hadn’t been passed, and had assumed the process Labor intended for appointing board members had already been locked in.
Oh for a functioning, effective parlimanetary press gallery!
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:28 pm
gloryconsequence
Of course it is. That is what i have been saying!
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:29 pm
poroti – it helps explain why in the lead up to the Liberal conference, Palmer is addressing the Lib moderates, and Bolt is addressing the Right. Of course, he is completely right wing in other ways (Taxes, pollution etc). I do wonder though, if the people who could be excluded from positions in the Libs because they are lobbyists, are mainly Abbott backers.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/palmer-bolt-to-lecture-liberals-20120624-20wfm.html
by Leroy on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:29 pm
I called it as a set up last night.
As if Abbott’s anal obsessive handlers would ever let him get to a stage where he almost comes to blows with Palmer!
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:29 pm
victoria:
You must be pleased with the MOAR we’ve seen today?
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:30 pm
It really is pretty easy, the state should no get involved in religion in any way or form, especially now that the people can’t even agree on the name to give the sky fairies.
by fredn on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:30 pm
I agree with all that is being said so far about Palmer on the lobbyists comments.
Its the Editorial Trusts thats the gob smacker.
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:31 pm
confessions
I have been very impatient with it all, so yes i have been pleased to see moar.
Latika tweeted earlier that Brian Loughnane (the other half of Credlin) was deep in conversation with Slipper. Would love to know what was discussed
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:33 pm
Zoomster
The whole point of new legislation is to get it passed the high court
To get the greens on side you would need some GUARANTEES od long term welfare of the people you deport. This is the nub of the problem. If Malaysia had laws like ours it would not be a problem. If Malaysia signed a binding TREATY with us for long term protection of the AS it would not be a problem. But open ended legislation that gives carte blanches to a Liberal government or to a new Malaysian government is very dangerous.
The simple problem is this. if Australia send an Afghani family to Malaysia, I have no doubt that for the first year or so things will go smoothly. But let us say that afet 5 years, one or other parent in dead, there is no money coming in and the girls fall into the hands of people traffickers, just imagine the outcry. Or if one of the boys grows up to be gay and is jailed, or if the family is forced out of accommodation and found begging in the streets. These are all very real possibilities. This is the problem which I do not see the Malaysian solution addressing.
by daretotread on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:34 pm
confessions – It was referred to a committee in the Coalition dominated Senate, but the govt has been appointing people under the same process (nominations etc) for ages, even though it was not required under the existing laws. So it’s easy to think it was already law as we’ve already seen the process in action. The thing that will change right now is that the ABC Staff elected director will come back, and that any future govt would have to pass a law to go back to appointing in the old way.
by Leroy on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Interesting!
Are there more federal Liberals possibly implicated, hence the intervention of the party director? We are yet to know the full details of Pyne’s contact with Ashby. Maybe the AFP have turned up more mobile phone contacts?
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:35 pm
Boerwar,
Um, I actually had two on! *ducks*
by Space Kidette on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:35 pm
This much we know:
On 19 March 2012 Pyne-o-clean had drinkies with Ashby and another staffer. Various phone calls and emails ensued.
On 26 March 2012 Ashby decided to launch the sexual harassment case (according to today’s court documents).
Coincidence?
Some of us PBrs have long suspected a high level political conspiracy from the start. Today we had the entree but I suspect the main course has yet to be arrive.
There will be MOAR and it will come to be known as No Specfic KnowledgeGate.
by Rossmore on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Victoria
Does that mean LNP will do a deal to ‘destroy’ Ashby’s case and withdraw challenge to Slipper in exchange for case being dropped?
by swamprat on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:36 pm
What am I doing! I’m watching Kroger and Latham i/vwg Howes and now Pyne who is being asked his response to the teacher’s strike in NSW.
Pyne said the teachers union is a composite of North Korea and Nazi Germany – did he really say that or did I imagine it?
by BH on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:36 pm
bemused
I never give up on human beings (or where would you be??)
Astrobleme
Yes, apparently I am able to refer to things you’ve said in your posts without actually reading them. It’s a trick I acquired in childhood.
Exactly. You look at a problem – people drowning at sea – and wash your hands of it.
People who actually care try and do something.
I’m crap at hands on stuff. Realised that long ago. That’s why I do policy.
Policy – properly done – can actually help more people than the hands on stuff.
Oh, so they’re a waste of time, then?
I would say, on the contrary. They have reduced the number of deaths from smoking.
So it’s quite likely – as the UNHCR says – that the Malaysian solution will at least reduce the number of deaths from drowning.
As people say about anti smoking ads – if they save just one life, they’re worth doing.
The UNHCR – who I assume have more expertise in this area, and have devoted more thought to the issue than you have – believe it will stop the boats.
Desperate people are clever, not stupid. At present, there is an incentive to take a boat to get to Australia, because if you get here, you get processed here and – if successful – are settled here.
Take away those two incentives and replace them with a plane flight to a camp in Malaysia, and there’s no reason to get on a boat in the first place.
Well, the Greens keep telling me here that it’s asylum seekers choice if they drown and basically we should leave them to it. I can’t help seeing that as defeatist at best and supremely cynical at worst.
I’m quite happy to blame the Libs, but there isn’t a Lib here stupid enough to try and defend their lack of action.
No one would be silly enough to get on a boat there. Even the Chinese who were initially determined to continue the voyage there accepted mandatory detention instead.
No, they’d be more likely to use forged papers to try and fly in – a route many have taken. Not as profitable for the smugglers, because the numbers you can get on a commercial plane flight are smaller. Or – given that they pass through several countries to get here – stay in one of them. Or wait in a resettlement camp, like other AS do.
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:37 pm
Leroy:
That would explain my misunderstanding.
And yes, the reinstatement of a staff-elected member is long overdue.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:37 pm
BH,
You know this is going to end badly.
by Space Kidette on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:37 pm
Pyne saying that what BOF is doing will be replicated by the Oppn when in Govt and they will help Newman, Bailleau, etc to take on Unions.
by BH on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:38 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:39 pm
SK
Congrats squared. I saw the Canadian system one.
by Boerwar on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:40 pm
Rossmore:
You and I are on the same page re Pyne. His explanations he’s given so far are weak and frankly pathetic.
It all appears highly suspect to me.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:40 pm
Boerwar,
Thanks. Think it is more good luck than any else!
by Space Kidette on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:41 pm
SK – I was going to switch off until they said Pyne would be on and I’m waiting to hear the words Ashby, Slipper, Brough. Reckon there’s any chance?
Pyne now blaming Macklin for Latham’s education policy but Latham saying he endorsed it and at least Latham is asking him about overfunding of private schools.
by BH on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:41 pm
Pyne says he doesn’t think any schools are being overfunded. What? Not even Kings School?
by BH on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:43 pm