Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
Page 1 of 2 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
BH:
Pyne has had the education portfolio for how long now? He has no credibility on education, hence his apparent need to shout at viewers in order to convince them.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:44 pm
BH,
If it gets too silly I am going to send in an extraction crew.
by Space Kidette on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:44 pm
swamprat
I would not be surprised if there an attempt to make this all go away
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:45 pm
Boerwar
I confess to a response to you at 2872.
by swamprat on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:46 pm
He’s certainly shouting, victoria. He seems pretty edgy.
by BH on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:47 pm
Night.
by guytaur on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:48 pm
To those promoting the Greens line on PB. Please give it a rest for a while. The current migration system is exactly what all of you clamoured for while the Libs were in government. It’s in full operation now, and a consequence of it is that people are drowning. At least SHY has the guts to more or less admit that this is ok by her.
All this jabbering on about a regional solution without a “people swap” element is just hot air. I heard Christine Milne today and the idea seems somehow to find all the potential boat people in Indonesia and Malaysia before they get into a boat and grant them refugee status before they set out and, at the same time, find all the evil people smugglers (who presumably have PEOPLE SMUGGLER written on a bag they are carrying in their hands) and lock them away for ever. (Unless, of course, they claim to be under 18, in which case they must be released instantly.)
I know some of the people who actually have to deal with these issues in the real world and to say that they don’t take the Greens’ ideas seriously would be greatly to overstate their estimation of them.
They no doubt go down a treat in Yarraville and Enmore and West Hobart and a range of other such places among people for whom the closest thing to persecution they have ever experienced is the refusal of the local cafe to offer gluten-free tiramisu.
You are preaching to the converted and I can tell you that you are starting to lose some of them (my lady friend is a committed and active greenie and party member and she’s starting to have serious doubts).
Please cease and desist and go and do something else. I hear Neil Young has just released a new album……..
by meher baba on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:49 pm
Night guytaur
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:49 pm
Zoomster
“You look at a problem – people drowning at sea – and wash your hands of it.”
You do not know me. How dare you say things like that.
This simplistic notion of yours, that we don’t care, is wrong.
“Oh, so they’re a waste of time, then?”
More verballing from you. You are deliberately misunderstanding what I was saying.
“Well, the Greens keep telling me here that it’s asylum seekers choice if they drown and basically we should leave them to it. I can’t help seeing that as defeatist at best and supremely cynical at worst. Well, the Greens keep telling me here that it’s asylum seekers choice if they drown and basically we should leave them to it. I can’t help seeing that as defeatist at best and supremely cynical at worst. ”
MORE AWFUL TRANSPARENT CRAP.
You are engaging in ‘othering’ an attempt to demonize those that disagree with and it’s simplistic.
“Desperate people are clever, not stupid.” I said they were clever…
“I’m quite happy to blame the Libs” – well that proves my point. If you REALLY BELIEVE that the Greens Libs and Labour are to blame for these deaths, then you are beyond help.
“The UNHCR – who I assume have more expertise in this area, and have devoted more thought to the issue than you have – believe it will stop the boats.”
Do you have any link for this??
by Astrobleme on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:49 pm
Tonight is not the first time he’s talked about Editorial trusts
http://afr.com/p/national/palmer_flags_media_ownership_trust_D4c01kDMmcD3NP6nCCD0QM#
by Leroy on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:50 pm
Do not believe any of it, comrades.
It’s an act. Kind of like good cop/ bad cop. Palmer has not a moderate bone in his body. A very obvious phony. Do not be conned.
by joe2 on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:50 pm
meher baba
The Greens policy position does not work in the real world, it is fantasyland stuff.
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:51 pm
Astrobleme
Because the ones in camps are not necessarily – indeed, rarely – the ones who come on boats.
The typical boat arrival hasn’t spent a day in a camp. Many of them have only spent a few months travelling from their point of origin.
So taking higher numbers from the camps doesn’t stop people getting on boats.
Under the Malaysian solution, we do take more from camps. But that in itself isn’t effective.
Which is the aim of the Malaysian solution. The current situation punishes those who wait by making them wait longer.
daretotread:
None of this is a problem for the UNHCR. Why do the Greens insist on higher standards than the people entrusted with enforcing the rules the Greens want to see upheld?
A good reason to get the Greens onside. No reason for the legislation to be open ended, or give carte blanche to the Libs – unless their votes are needed to get it through Parliament.
Make them irrelevant, and the legislation can be a lot tighter.
As for the Malaysian end, the UNHCR made it very clear that they would monitor the conditions in Malaysia. If the UNHCR withdrew their approval at any stage, Australia would simply back out of the agreement.
Of course, it would be very easy – if it were the Greens doing a deal with Labor – to enshrine that condition in law.
As for the problem scenario you propose, such scenarios can be made up to cover any situation you care to name. Why, the family could be successfully proposed onshore in Australia, the father could still die, the girls still end up as prostitutes and the boys ‘grow up’ to be gay (er, what?). Indeed, they could end up homeless as well.
In fact, given the commitment of the UNHCR and Australia to monitor such families, one can argue that that scenario is less likely to happen in Malaysia. Except, of course, for preventing the boys growing up to be gay.
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:51 pm
Changes To Media To Help Hearing Impaired People
(Big tip of the hat to My Say for bring this to my attention)
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:52 pm
SK – I’m having trouble watching Pyne.
Whoohoo! Latham says to Pyne wtte ‘when you get out of politics you’ll see just how petty these politics are when saying ‘it’s all their fault’. That went over Pyne’s head – the Govt. has to accept their policy to which Latham says ‘you have to go half way and meet the Govt. People are saying you just want to keep this running’.
Aaaghh! Nothing on Ashby as Kroger lets Pyne go.
by BH on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:52 pm
Weird. I didn’t have to log in this morning; this evening I am forced to do so…
Rossmore @ 2887,
Wellll, I told me old mum the day the story broke that it was yet another dirty tricks campaign (aka Grechgate part 2), so I still keep my fingers crossed.
Apart from that scintillating observation, I’ve been so frantic the last few days with data collection + exam marking that I don’t know what’s been going on in the world – apart from the Rhinehax (can’t remember how I achieved the copyright symbol last time)/”white {k}night” attempt which seems to have been lanced in anticipation.
So goodnight all, have fun, and don’t do anything that I wouldn’t do
by fiona on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:53 pm
I know people who work in this area, including in the Australian Red Cross and Hotham Mission Asylum Seeker Project, who fully support the Greens’ position.
by Pegasus on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:53 pm
swamprat
IMHO, the ADF should, in the broad, be representative of Australia. That means we should expect to see a proportion of muslim Australian soldiers and officers in the ADF as desirable and normal.
For the majority of Australians, the cross has resonant cultural, historical and religious connotations. For most of us these are core to our culture and our sense of self (IMHO, indirectly this includes many ‘secular’ Australians in an indirect way): the crusades, our historical derivation from a christian empire and christian religions.
Modesty aside, most of us would feel comfortable with being awarded a Victorian Cross should we ever happen to earn one.
But Australians are increasingly secular, increasingly non-christian, and increasingly come from somewhere other than Britain. That is our new, and increasing, reality as a nation.
If Australia is really clever, it will not insult future battle heroes by offering them religious symbols as awards for self-sacrifice and bravery on behalf of the nation.
I like the idea of the a new top military battle award, ‘The Australian Medal of Honour.’
by Boerwar on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:54 pm
bw
I’m sending one of the “boys” around to her place as I type this to break her fingers.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:54 pm
Just some wild speculation here but… I wonder if Brian Loughnane is tonight considering the implications of the LNP not contesting Slipper’s seat at the next Federal Election.
by trawler on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:55 pm
Can someone with the technical knowledge needed please post for us the soundtrack from this one from Martha and the Vandellas with the video of the loathsome LOTO and the Pink Faced Gazelle doing the Reps Dash?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQRIOKvR2WM
You know, just to lighten things up a bit from the thought of people who are utterly evil (Obersturmfuhrer Morrison) and contemptible (the LOTO) building their hopes of power on drowning people.
by Marrickville Mauler on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:57 pm
trawler – I wondered that too “if we leave you alone, will you drop it?”. No way to know. He may just have been trying to minimise damage, or was even saying to Slipper he (Brian) had nothing to do with the get Slipper push himself.
by Leroy on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:58 pm
DG
F,B,F&Co always have openings for well-motivated and skilled personnel in this area. What with the national skills shortage, good help is hard to get.
by Boerwar on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:58 pm
Attempts at damage control. They will be hope to drop the case, now, by doing a deal with Slipper on regaining the chair quickly. It might work.
Not so good in finding the whole truth on this sordid plot/ coup attempt.
by joe2 on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:59 pm
Of course Kroger asked Latham re Rudd running with Shorten as Deputy. Latham says wtte it ain’t going to happen. The AWU block won’t move to Rudd and Shorten would cruel his chances to be PM later on.
Latham seems quite different to how he was speaking a few months ago. He was belligerent about Labor then and ready to rant against JG and the Govt. but was almost serene tonight.
by BH on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:59 pm
UNHCR’s support is conditional and it’s support is not open-ended.
UNHCR submission to the Senate Legal and Constitutional Affairs Committee inquiry into Australia’s agreement with Malaysia in relation to asylum seekers:
https://senate.aph.gov.au/submissions/comittees/viewdocument.aspx?id=6b284007-5898-4031-818c-07220d04076b
by Pegasus on Jun 26, 2012 at 8:59 pm
trawler
The Nats have their own candidate for the seat of Fisher
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:00 pm
boerwar
I do not think we are a better country for adopting a US “medal of honour”. It always intrigues me why all you who oppose our traditions to be independent of Britain always say we should adopt the US thing on anything.
I am sorry that form of “independence” I will refuse quite happily.
Actually I was a strong supporter of an Australian Republic in 80′s and 90′s but I realised that none of the so called “republicans” wanted any new Australian generated system, they were all Americanisers, like you.
by swamprat on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:01 pm
trawler
Candidate is Peta Simpson
http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/story/2012/05/08/simpson-shrugs-off-ashby-link-controversy/
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:02 pm
Suggested questions tomorrow for QT.
“Does the PM ever text rank and file members?”
Follow up- “Has the PM ever lied about swearing at mining billionaires?”
by killerbees on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:02 pm
No way the LNP won’t contest Fisher.
Sorry, just can’t see it.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:02 pm
Beorwar
sorry, i have probably offended you, i suppose it is a medal of “honor” not honour.
by swamprat on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:02 pm
Astrobleme
Yes. Posted it earlier.
http://unhcr.org.au/unhcr/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=220:unhcr-statement-on-the-australia-malaysia-arrangement&catid=35:news-a-media&Itemid=63
As for the rest, it sounds very adolescent – “You don’t understand! How can you say those awful things about me! I never!!”.
Next you’ll be running from the room in tears and slamming the bedroom door.
If you want to argue with adults, learn to argue like one.
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:03 pm
Zoomster
“The typical boat arrival hasn’t spent a day in a camp. Many of them have only spent a few months travelling from their point of origin.”
Where did you get this information?
“So taking higher numbers from the camps doesn’t stop people getting on boats”
Wow, how do you know this?
“The current situation punishes those who wait by making them wait longer.”
So why not support the Greens plan of just acceping more?
Wow, seems support from the UNHCR isn;t as good as you think:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/refugee-obsession-out-of-proportion-20120214-1t49w.html
“He said his agency had concerns about the Malaysia agreement. ”It’s not what we liked, it’s something we could work with,” he said, noting the UNHCR was not a party to the deal.”
by Astrobleme on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:03 pm
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/carbon-tax-to-hurt-canberran-castaways-20120626-20zrk.html
That pup hates Abbott. And I wonder if Abbott put anything in the donation tin or dropped of a few old blankets or bag of dog or cat treats? Those kennels get cold in winter and animal welfare always needs donations of stuff like that.
I hope the pup’s vaccinations are up to date.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:03 pm
peg
exactly. If those conditions aren’t met, the deal’s off.
Those are the safeguards.
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:03 pm
Zoomster
“As for the rest, it sounds very adolescent – “You don’t understand! How can you say those awful things about me! I never!!”. ”
Ohhh look at you demonise those who disagree… Yes, we are awful and we wash our hands of the deaths of people we obviously caused.
by Astrobleme on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:04 pm
DanG – has that girl been bribing Tony Jones behind our backs
by BH on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:05 pm
Astrobleme,
Labor and the Coalition are singing from the same hymn sheet regarding their characterisation of the Greens’ plicy and position.
They are obviously comfortable with that.
by Pegasus on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:06 pm
Dan
SK is a shameless hussy. Earlier today, she started a bidding war for her favours.
She will eat your boys alive!
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:06 pm
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/26/gina-rinehart-threatens-exit-fairfax
by my say on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:06 pm
Meher Baba
Another great post among several from you over the last few days. Bravo!!
by Michael Cusack on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:06 pm
Zoomster that doesn’t say it will stop every boat.
by Astrobleme on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:06 pm
Astro
I call you adolescent and you respond
LOL.
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:07 pm
Pegasus. Have the people you mentioned specifically stated that they believe that it is possible to retain onshore processing and also sonehow negotiate arrangements with Indonesia and Malaysia that will stop the boats?
Or are they simply in favour of onshore processing and helping everyone who shows up as much as possible.
I suspect the latter, which is a principled position, but which requires its proponent not to mind about a quantum of drownings.
There is, of course, a third way which has long been pursued by well-meaning, but somewhat histrionic, advocates like my old mate Marion Le, which involved stridently blaming the government for every boat arrival and boat sinking and describe it as “a failure of government policy” but also vehemently oppose any measure the government tries to take to stop or slow the
boat arrivals. Peter Lewis on the Drum last night was taking a somewhat similar line.
If people with bleeding hearts want to play that way, fine, but I for one will never be convinced by their arguments.
by meher baba on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:07 pm
bw
I’ll give the lad your business card
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:07 pm
Puff,
Especially the anti-rabies ones
by fiona on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:07 pm
Pegasus
It is not the hymn sheet, it’s what you do.
by swamprat on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:07 pm
Zoomster
“If you want to argue with adults, learn to argue like one.”
Adults should demonise?
Adults you should point at other people and blame them for the deaths of asylum seeekers.
If so, I am glad not be an adult.
by Astrobleme on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:08 pm
Astro
No, and neither have I. Look back at what I said about anti smoking campaigns.
Isn’t it worth trying to save even a few lives?
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 9:08 pm