Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Lynchpin
Not sure what you are on about re policy differences (Rudd, Gillard, Combet, Shorten or any other Fred or Freda). There are relatively few POLICY differences in Labor just now
1. Carbon Tax versus ETS – The Carbon Tax part is a Greens initiative reluctantly supported by Gillard. The ETS part is solidly supported by most (especially Rudd – it was his idea). So no change with a change of leader except perhaps bringing the ETS forward by a year or so. Maybe a few more concessions to business. Hardly major stuff.
2. NBN – A Rudd intiative with overwhelming support
3. AS – Rudd would be a little closer to the Greens position than Gillard Not sure if you regard this as a major plus or not. I do but each to their own
4. Plain packaging – Rudd era initiative if I recall so no change
5. Mining Tax – um This was a RUDD initiative. Might be strengthened but not changed.
6. Assange – POSSIBLY Hard to tell.
So all this carry on about policy chages etc is quite frankly bizarre
by daretotread on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:45 am
Fran
Yes, you are right about the use of the phrase “carbon” tax. This has entered the public political lexicon along with “pink batts fiasco”, “school halls debacle” and the like.
All of these things are defensible. It’s just a pity they weren’t nipped in the bud as they arose.
by BK on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:46 am
1. Because the situation has not changed and my arguments are still valid
2. No (but I like to argue)
3. Perhaps, but I am not here for entertainment value (see 2)
Ok today I would rather talk english literature. After Shakespeare, who was the #2 English poet, Milton or Chaucer?
by bluegreen on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:46 am
Oakeshott Country
Thanks for the run down of the candidates. The words “motley crew” comes to mind and yes Rob O sure does stand a chance against any of that lot.
by poroti on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:47 am
Guytaur:
I’ll consider that.
One big change that has come over TV in this country lately is that the topical humour is no longer sharp. You need to be able to skewer important figures. Doesn’t matter if it’s done just as a pisstake (which is what a lot of the Rob Sitch impressions on the Late Show were) or to make a serious point. There just ought to be a lot more of it. A couple of minutes of Clarke and Dawe once a week isn’t nearly enough.
The reason why Shaun Micallef’s work isn’t in the league of the Daily Show, and never will be, is because his character is so dominant. His on-camera team always come across as support staff. Put him up there with two or three people who can match and at times top him and you’ve got yourself a show with a bit of friction. Jon Stewart isn’t afraid of that. When one of his ‘Senior Correspondents” come on, that slot is theirs. Plus of course, Stewart genuinely cares about what’s going on, and wants and demands answers. Micallef just looks to lampoon. I like him, but he’s not going to change the world with anything he does.
I suspect the reason there’s not much sting in political humour is that there’s a lot of editorial interference. Many good ideas likely get vetoed as “too sensitive”. I can’t recall the last time a comedy piece came on TV and the general reaction was “Oooh, you can’t say that – but I’m glad they did!” Just doesn’t happen any more.
by Aguirre on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:47 am
Reading abck over my post @264 … I can see that there were quite a few typos … That’s what happens when you type something in ten minutes and don’t proof!
by Fran Barlow on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:49 am
middle man
I agree with you!
I have said before that politicians tweeting demeans their role and Emerson among others should give it away.
by MTBW on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:49 am
guytaur
He wouldn’t undo anything. He’d try and amend the legislation to have the floating price start sooner. I think this is a wise move both in terms of policy and politics (the sooner the carbon permit auction is held the better as it creates a major legal problem for Abbott in terms of taking away people’s private property)
by spur212 on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:49 am
Fran Barlow@264,
I generally agree. I would point out that this position:
It also needs to be a position The Greens adopt. Too often they join with the Coalition in the attack on the Gillard government. They’ll end up with nothing but their sanctimonious opinions in the next parliament if they don’t watch out for the government.
by C@tmomma on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:50 am
Fran Barlow
There was a green shoot showing during Fran and Michelle’s chat this morning. Yes it was called a tax but it was called a “tax on carbon pollution”. If we cannot get rid of “carbon tax” then having it known as a tax on “pollution” would be just as good. I mean who is going to be against taxing “pollution” ?
by poroti on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:50 am
No idea,but prefer the poet laurette, Sir John Masefield.
by Schnappi on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:51 am
Zoomster
Processing in Malaysia etc yes but ONLY if fast and efficient. And ONLY if Australia makes a determination within 6 months of each applicant as to whether they will or will not be accepted.
If people are left many moths without a determination then they will be back on the boats as well as placing an unreasonable burden on Malaysia.
Mind you the whole thing falls over once you realise that Australia will be the final destination for most not matter how they get here. There is basically not anywhere else for them to go.
Possibly the definition of refugee needs to be tightened a little. This would slow down economic refugees
by daretotread on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:51 am
Aguirre
I miss shows like the Big Gig when it was hosted by Wendy Harmer and The GlassHouse with Wil Anderson. Also of course The Late Show you mention, but also The Gillies Report. Numerous others. The think I remember they all had in common is that when they turned their attention to politics their pisstakes cut through. Even the Chaser had its moments.
To add to your idea. A series similar Drop the Dead Donkey could be good. Or if more serious one like many law series and hospital series we see. Currently Silks on ABC TV is a good idea of what I have in mind. You come in with the novice and have the mentor teaching the ropes. etc.
Its scary I even miss Kingswood Country and Naked Vicar shows and I am in my 40′s.
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:53 am
Tis the key point of the whole debate.
The current international definition does not match the modern undertanding of what a refugee is and should be.
by bluegreen on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:55 am
@KRuddMP: Fantastic launch this morning here in Canberra of the Australian Paralympic team. KRudd http://t.co/DMXkHhH0
by guytaur on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:57 am
Fran – good suggestions. However if you watched JG’s (and other Ministers) pressers in full you would see that they correct the journos when they’ve written ‘crap’ but those comments are never shown in news clips nor written in newspaper articles.
Many Labor pollies are using social media. Stephen Jones was first to expose Steve Lewis’ lies today. He did it on his Facebook page and Twitter and got the reaction needed.
What is needed is for all those who don’t want Abbott to be PM to get out and about talking to people they meet who spout Abbott facts as truth. Never let one of them go by without politely responding and giving the facts (make sure you’ve got them right tho).
It’s up to all of us now. The ALP is more important than fighting over who should be leader.
by BH on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:58 am
Aguirre
Or in the case of the ABC – the so-called “balance” shite.
Sourpuss DLP-er Gerard Henderson probably hated Max Gillies’ Santamaria satire.
Did you see Henderson’s horror at the The Project (or whatever it is called now). Very leftie program, according to GH, and an example of how Rinehart doesn’t interfere.
Conveniently forgetting that “editorial independence” would have been written into the contract given that’s it’s a Rove McManus (Roving Enterprises) Production.
by kezza2 on Jun 25, 2012 at 10:58 am
I would always go Chaucer but largelybecause of the cadence of his writting when read in middle English.
Here is a trivia question (and the answer isn’t on Wikipedia) What is Ne Temere? What is its place in NSW political history and what is its relevance to Australia’s current immigration debate?
by Oakeshott Country on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:02 am
If that were so, the real meaning would have disappeared 200 years ago – RG is about 230 years old. In fact, the word’s misuse is quite recent, probably because rolled gold has all but disappeared – probably has already disappeared – as much cheaper plated gold (“gold washed/ dipped/ flashed”) took over the cheaper end of the market.
BTW, ebay (+other online) listings – for antique, brand new, or in between – assume anyone who buys jewellery, watches & the like knows the differences between real gold of whatever carat, rolled gold, gold filled, gold flashed etc. Australians are very big online shoppers, inc of jewellery & watches: new, vintage, antique.
“Rolled gold” also tends to be a male expression; perhaps because many women know the difference, whereas most men’s knowledge is/ was probably confined to cuff-links, tie pins & mechanical watch cases after wrist watches replaced pocket watches & their chains.
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:02 am
daretotread
Processing in Malaysia or Indonesia would be undertaken by the appropriate authority, which is the UNHCR.
So the speed of the process would be largely up to them.
Of course, AS not throwing away their papers etc would help here, which is one of the reasons processing takes so long in Australia.
Well, no it doesn’t.
For a start, those currently arriving by boat have a number of other options open to them, as I’ve already pointed out.
If it was clear that no one who arrived without authorisation was going to be processed here, then they’re more likely to avoid Indonesia/Malaysia to start with, and head for Canada, the UK or the USA instead.
So we’re basically in agreement that something along the lines of the Malaysian solution should work in stopping deaths at sea.
by zoomster on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:03 am
Judi Moylan’s decided to defy the thugs(major one being her leader):
by C@tmomma on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:03 am
Lynchpin
Interesting how the Age has referred to Commonwealth allegations againsg Lewis and DT colluding with Ashby as part of the article you have linked.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/treasurer-says-student-snacks-safe-20120625-20x8h.html#ixzz1ylE10oX4
by victoria on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:03 am
OzPT:
SOrry to disillusion you, but the story is still there, proudly in the No. 1 position of the DT’s web site, uncorrected, and still attrecting comments like this, posted just an hour or so ago:
Rent-A-Whinge is alive and well.
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:05 am
Fran RE point 4. I posted last week sometime that I find it fascinating watching the Greens and ALP learn to live with each other. And they must learn to live with each other. If they can’t get there in an informal manner, there will come a time when a formal method is used.
And point 4 definitely cuts both ways.
As an additional point to this, it is important that BOTH the Greens and the ALP start educating the public on how that relationship might look like, because it sure ain’t going to look like the puppy getting scratched on the tummy a la the Nats.
It’s going to be far more robust and ‘messy’… but the outcomes will probably be far more meaningful and constructive.
by middle man on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:05 am
mytbw – Does that include KRuddMP who tweets more than most. I find the pollies tweets good for referring to speeches they make, policy decisions announced, some funny comments and this morning – Stephen Jones getting in quickly to tell everyone the DT was spinning baloney again. Absolutely loved it!
by BH on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:06 am
Rudd refuses to answer questions about the leadership this morning – radio news in Sydney.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:06 am
kezza2
You are assuming he would recognise it as being satire. Max’s impersonation of Santa may have struck GH as imitation being the sincerest form of flattery
.
by poroti on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:07 am
blue green
Shakespeare was easily the best , but I prefer Donne, Wordsworth, Hopkins and even Larkin to Milton. Chaucer, IMO, didn’t write in what I think of as English (I know technically it’s in English, but it’s not the language I was brought up speak). So you’re not really comparing like to like. He was v good, tho’
Milton has his moments, but he’s very long-winded.
by meher baba on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:07 am
this from the abc
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-25/coalition-divided-over-offshore-processing/4090476
No doubt the liberals will have a new leader next year
Perfect example if hockey or turnbull or any other liberal wants to be seen as the next pm, should challenge now
by Meguire Bob on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:08 am
kezza. gina has deliberately targetted the two ‘left’ media organisations that are able to be bought. the Ten Network appears ‘left’ purely by its strategy of being the most watched by 13-25yo’s.
she’s taking them down.
by middle man on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:08 am
One thing about the timing of a leadership change is that Shorten/Combet/Smith would need more time to turn things around than Crean who would need more time than Rudd.
by Diogenes on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:09 am
oops @ 239 i meant 18-25 yo’s.
by middle man on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:09 am
Whew!I was worried for a while, but it turns out the DT is bound by a rigorous ethical standard:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/for-the-record/story-e6freuy9-1226203390778
by Bushfire Bill on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:09 am
Labor has won the election by default , the longer the liberals keep abbott as leader
by Meguire Bob on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:10 am
If today is going to be filled with Troll Labor Man’s Anniversary Tweets for his bromantic #1 political honeybun, then I have grass to watch grow.
by C@tmomma on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:10 am
poroti
Too true.
I didn’t think of that.
by kezza2 on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:10 am
c@tmomma
going on a few non labor supporters, they know the coaliton will not win the next election with abbott as leader
the only way the coaliton has a chance if labor changes leader
by Meguire Bob on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:11 am
Bushfire Bill,
Still full steam ahead for Sunday? The whole 3 or 4 of us!
by C@tmomma on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:11 am
Diog
Crean? I can’t find any redeeming features about Crean.
by bluegreen on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:13 am
the thing with tweeting is that it is engagement at the discretion of the follower. and that discretion is applied at a micro, person-by-person level, unlike newspapers and tv news which is a far broader engagement model. the consumer makes one decision – that is to watch or read – there is then a host of discretion given to the producers to decide what the consumer is supplied.
by middle man on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:13 am
My vote is for TS Eliot
by Diogenes on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:13 am
MM @ 329
I agree re Gina’s agenda.
Here’s a prediction: If we hear of the Project’s imminent demise, it will be because Rove McManus has resisted Gina’s influence.
by kezza2 on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:14 am
Guytaur:
A mate of mine has the entire “Drop the Dead Donkey” set, and I’ve seen a lot of it. Nice gimmick, but it descended very quickly into standard sitcom territory. It’s the right idea though. Something like that, but as with Frontline the show could take a ‘technique’ newspapers or journalists use each episode, and skewer it.
Sketch comedy is what we do best (or used to do best anyway) in this country. Especially satire. Sitcoms always seem to come off a bit cheesy or preformatted. Having said that, the last couple of attempts at sketch comedy shows – one was “Skithouse”, the other I can’t recall the name of but it loosely revolved around a town or geographical location – were abysmal. And they were about 5-6 years ago.
Our stand up comedy tends to be a bit shouty. They had Wil Anderson’s “Wilarious” on ABC2 the other night. He needs to learn a lot about the use of swearwords. They have no impact if you use them in every sentence, and they’re no substitute for actual humour. Like any weapon, they need to be used only when required.
by Aguirre on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:14 am
What’s wrong with pensioners supplementing their income?
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:14 am
Meguire Bob,
You have to factor in the never-ending negative media campaign against the Labor Federal Government. It was started under Rudd(hence the pointlessness of bringing him back), and took a while to get a head of steam up against Gillard, but there is no way they are going to relent now. This is a Post Truth Political world we are in now, where everyone thinks they are entitled to their own opinion, bugger the facts. If it feels good, say it.
by C@tmomma on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:15 am
I think the question was about English poets though I might be wrong
by Tom Hawkins on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:15 am
bg
Personally I don’t think Crean is an option but his name always gets a mention, and as a former leader he’s better known that the others.
by Diogenes on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:15 am
kezza. she’s also got lucky that both of them have been appallingly managed and are bloody cheap to buy for a mega billionaire.
by middle man on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:15 am
daretotread shares guytaur’s misconception that the boat people are FLEEING from something and are desperately interested in being processed as applicants for refugee status as soon as possible anywhere they can.
Most of these folk wouldn’t give a toss about the chance to be processed by the UNHCR in Malaysia or Indonesia. They have been given excellent advice that the thing to do is get on a boat, throw away your papers, and then make a claim onshore. Past experience shows that, while they might have to spend a few years in a camp, they are very likely to be successful in the long run.
by meher baba on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:15 am
Twitter only has one million users of which only a smaller propotion would be regular users of which a smaller proportion would use it for political information.
It is not the ALPs panacea.
by bluegreen on Jun 25, 2012 at 11:16 am