Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Astrobleme
saying ‘rubbish, rubbish, rubbish’ is not an argument. It certainly isn’t a solution.
If you have neither, don’t waste people’s time.
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:01 pm
Spur – McKew is just another ex Labor pollie who unfortunately could have waited to write her book once Labor is out of office instead of putting it out before an election. Very disappointing and for what reason? Is she that vengeful against the PM and Labor.
It’s always sad to lose good young people but Caucus overwhelmingly wanted a change in 2010. Nothing changes that fact. How did they know that one or more Caucus members would start leaking against the Party during an election campaign. Maxine’s story will be responded to in time.
by BH on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:01 pm
PTMD
I suspect I wouldn’t get very far past the sawmill with those two as the polite opening how do you do…
by Boerwar on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:01 pm
bw
These http://tiny.cc/l6digw
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:02 pm
bw
I reckon they will do the trick.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:02 pm
Zoomster
Stop verballing me. It’s a bad habit you have.
by Astrobleme on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:03 pm
Astro boy @ 3037
That’s right, you are catching on.
It is the child like belief that good intentions can never lead to bad consequences.
by bemused on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:03 pm
Ms McKew appears to be set to join the longish list of Rooster/feather dusters who are all set to do some damage to a Labor Government.
I trust they enjoy the thought that they are essentially supporting the electoral fortunes of the vilest LOTO Australia has the misforturne to have had.
by Boerwar on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:03 pm
PTMD
I don’t think I am going to risk you as marriage broker. Bloody dangerous.
by Boerwar on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:04 pm
Zoom, i suppose if you are peddling rubbish, that would be a logical argument & solution
by The Finnigans on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:05 pm
It’s looking more and more like “Utegate2: Steve’s back and this timr he’s gonna get him”. I believe Abetz went out of his way to counsel Abbott and Pyne not to pursue this on the basis of “If it looks too good to be true, then it isn’t”. But the prize was clearly too great.
Some of you love conspiracies. How about this one. Labor MP is married to Chris Uhlmann. Uhlmann is best mates with Steve Lewis. Steve Lewis is looking reasonable odds to have seriously wounded two Liberal leaders in less than three years….
You know it makes sense.
by meher baba on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:06 pm
my say @ 3043
Stop being so rude and trying to boss people around.
by bemused on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:06 pm
BW, she needs a red dress & a double spread on WW, then she’ll be Cheryl Kernot Mark 2
by The Finnigans on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:06 pm
c@tmomma – sorry to hear about your fall. Hope you can get some decent rest tonight.
I’m orf to bed. Night all. Another interesting day coming up tomorrow.
by BH on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:06 pm
Sheesh! I’m going to have to invest in another tin of spam. Maybe a pallet full.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:06 pm
Astro
Er, how were you verballed?
You used the word ‘rubbish’ a couple of times instead of rebutting bemused’s arguments.
You yourself have said you don’t have a solution.
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:08 pm
How long has Ms McKew been a member of the ALP?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:08 pm
Dan
…or learn to sing really crap love songs….
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:09 pm
Dan G,
Emmo and Mike Kelly are good men. We need more like them on both sides of politics.
by Space Kidette on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:09 pm
Bemused
“It is the child like belief that good intentions can never lead to bad consequences.”
Well, given that I don’t believe that bad things can’t happen from good intentions I don’t see how this is relevant?
Are the Italians to blame for the deaths of African asylum seekers? What about those drowning on the way to Spain?
What about people who speed? Are we to blame for their deaths because we didn’t fit machines to cars to stop speeding?
What about people who drink themselves to death? Are we to blame because we don’t prevent drinking?
It is just a dumb piece of logic.
by Astrobleme on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:09 pm
Boerwar – the time for blaming / arguments / soul searching is when you’re in opposition. I hate labor pollies (nearly always from NSW) dumping on a labor govt whilst in govt. As a branch member without access to the media, who can only contribute in a small way, its especially galling to see them do that. I do wonder about the culture of the party there, and the concentration of media in Sydney encouraging them to do it. You don’t see that much from the Victorian ALP ex pollies.
by Leroy on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:09 pm
Every year I post the link to the UNHCR Global Trends
2011 report: http://www.unhcr.org/4fd6f87f9.html
Looking at durable solutions it is a fact
For those who genuinely want to find out the reasons for fluctuations in global trends, as well as statistical information, including the countries of origin of asylum seekers and refugees, the host countries for these people, etc, please read this report.
The fear mongering about millions of refugees knocking on Australia’s doors is without foundation. This fear-mongering has been accompanied by the demonisation and dehumanisation of “boat people” which is designed to frame the issue as one of border protection rather than as an humanitarian issue; Australia must put up the barricades, draw up the bridge and repel the hordes of asylum seekers and refugees who threaten to upset ‘our way of life’.
In the context of global trends, it can be seen why the Greens Party will always support the UN Convention on Refugees.
by Pegasus on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:09 pm
Boerwar @ 3057
No Mr War, that distinction belongs to anyone who supports the coup of June 2010 and it’s consequent disastrous impact on Labor’s fortunes.
You and others fear the truth.
by bemused on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:09 pm
Yep.
She’s wild she was a oncer. She should be looking to Wayne Swan instead of whingeing away. He was once a oncer, but came back and is now Deputy PM and Treasurer.
McKew FAIL.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:09 pm
The “Uhlmann is married to a Labor MP” bit never makes any sense…
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:10 pm
BW
But but but, they are irresistible! She couldn’t say no.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:10 pm
Ugh. Is this kind of intemperance really necessary?
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:10 pm
Zoomster
“You used the word ‘rubbish’ a couple of times instead of rebutting bemused’s arguments.”
Wow… Ok so he presented some superficial, unfounded pseudo-psycho analysis and I supposed to refute it? I have to PROVE him wrong? Weird
I also said a few other things that you carefully didn’t refer to in an attempt to undermine what I was saying.
by Astrobleme on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:11 pm
Leroy
Agree.
by Boerwar on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:11 pm
Bemused
My feeling is that if things are the same way they are in 3 months, people on here will start to think a bit about what the problem is.
It took a lot to shift me
by spur212 on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:11 pm
I love the Monster Fish Show on NatGeo Wild where there is no actual monster fish just BIG fish
by The Finnigans on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:11 pm
Astro
in all those examples you cite, we do do things to try and at least minimise the loss of life. We don’t shrug our shoulders and say it’s inevitable, so let’s not bother.
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:12 pm
fess, he just tries to bully my say as usual
by The Finnigans on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:12 pm
SK
Indeed they are.
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:12 pm
Hear hear. I’d rather we saw more Geoff Gallops in our msm than Richardsons and Della Boscas.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:13 pm
Astro
so in other words, I didn’t verbal you. I reported accurately your response to bemused’s arguments.
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:13 pm
PTMD @ 3066
It would have been entirely inappropriate for her to belong to any party while doing political interviewing on the ABC, so I think she joined around 2007.
Her partner has been a member for probably close to 50 years and was a Victoria n State Secretary and National Secretary. I think between them they know what goes on.
by bemused on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:13 pm
Zoomster
“We don’t shrug our shoulders and say it’s inevitable, so let’s not bother.”
You are verballing me AGAIN!
It’s so hard to have a discussion with someone who is so dishonest.
Never EVER said anything like that.
I have said repeatedly we need to help the countries they come from and take more refugees.
by Astrobleme on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:14 pm
Bemused
IMHO, Mr Rudd has more reason than any of the feather dusters to feel vindicative and destructive.
Right now he is behaving pretty well for someone in that position.
This is what I expect from people who believe that, in the broad, social values and social outcomes are more important than wounded egos.
Good on Mr Rudd. Bad on the rest of the indisciplined, destructive pack of monomaniacal bastards. If they like the thought of Mr Abbott becoming prime minister that much, they should eff off and join the Liberal Party.
by Boerwar on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:14 pm
SK
Yes,but which one has the most pigs?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:14 pm
The Hoopla (@TheHoopla)
25/06/12 4:05 PM
“Australians need to understand why people are getting on the boats in the first place.” bit.ly/KVWyT4
by Rossmore on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:14 pm
Astro boy @ 3069
How dare you suggest I am a Green!!!
by bemused on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:15 pm
Zoomster
“so in other words, I didn’t verbal you. I reported accurately your response to bemused’s arguments.”
Yes you did, becuase you omitted the substance. You said I didn’t give any substance to his arguments. The parts that were argumenst I did respond to.
by Astrobleme on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:15 pm
Astrobleme,
Time to sit back and let the Laborites fight amongst themselves
by Pegasus on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:15 pm
BW 3088
With that, I agree.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:15 pm
Finns:
It’s been blatant for a while, and is now boring.
Besides, my say thankfully shows no sign of diminishing herself at the behest of bemused’s bullying.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:16 pm
Finns
Yes, he does a nice line in monster patter in the complete absence of monsters. F,B,F&Co could use him. So could Labor, IMHO.
by Boerwar on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:16 pm
by Space Kidette on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:16 pm
Here Zoomster, to refresh your memory
“People would still come by boat. Zoomster tried to claim that that the UNHCR said the Malaysia Solution would sto the boats, but the link she provided just said it was a step to giving people an alternative.
Other ideas by the Greens would have similar effects.
The problem here is that you are over simplifying the issue and you want to use it to attack the Greens.”
That would have been a more accurate portrayal of what I said.
by Astrobleme on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:16 pm
confessions @ 3076
No, that is why I challenged it.
my say was quite disgusting wasn’t she.
by bemused on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:17 pm