Newspoll: 55-45 to Coalition
The latest fortnightly Newspoll – the first in some time to be released on Sunday rather than Monday night – has Labor’s primary vote down a point on last time to 30%, the Coalition’s up two to 46% and the Greens’ down two to 12%, with the two-party preferred out from 54-46 to 55-45. Julia Gillard has lost most of her lead as preferred prime minister, which narrows from 42-38 in her favour to 39-38, but the individual personal ratings are essentially unchanged, with Gillard down two points on approval to 30% and up one on disapproval to 59%, while Tony Abbott is down one on each to 31% and 58%.
UPDATE: Essential Research has voting intention unchanged on last week, with the Coalition leading 56-44 from primary votes of 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. The poll also gaugues opinion on the carbon tax for the first time since November last year, up to which point it had asked every month after the policy was first announced in late February 2011, and it finds support at a new low with 35% supportive and 54% opposed. Forty-five per cent believe it will increase the cost of living “a lot”, 26% “a moderate amount”, 20% “a little” and 2% that it will have “no impact”, while 44% think it likely and 40% unlikely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal it in government. More happily for the government, its marine reserves policy has 70% support with 13% opposed. The poll also finds 88% rating themselves not likely to pay for online newspaper content against only 9% likely.
UPDATE 2: The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, covering the last two weekends, has Labor down half a point to 32.5%, the Coalition up three to 45.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 10%. The Coalition’s lead is up from 55-45 to 56.5-43.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and from 52-48 to 54.5-45.5 on previous election preferences.
Matters federal:
• ReachTEL last week published results of two automated phone polls from the electorates of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, finding both to be headed for defeat. In New England, Nationals candidate-presumptive Richard Torbay was rated at 62% of the primary vote against 25% for Windsor (after distribution of the undecided), which on 2010 preference flows would put Torbay ahead 65.7-34.3. In Lyne, David Gillespie of the Nationals (UPDATE: Commenter Oakeshott Country notes I’m jumping the gun here: the Nationals are yet to confirm their candidate) led Oakeshott 52% to 31%, or 55.4-44.6. The electorates were polled in October last year by Newspoll, at which time no information on likely Nationals candidates was available, which showed Windsor trailing 41% to 33% and Oakeshott trailing 47% to 26%.
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports a “factional brawl” looms in the South Australian Liberal Party over the Senate vacancy created by the retirement of Mary Jo Fisher, who suffers a depressive illness and was recently reported to police for shoplifting for the second time in 18 months. Packham reports that Ann Ruston, former National Wine Centre chief executive and owner of a Riverina wholesale flower-growing firm, might emerge as a moderate-backed candidate. However, the Right’s position – contested by the moderates – is that she would have to renounce her existing claim to the number three position on the Senate ticket for the next election if she wished to contest the preselection. Kate Raggatt, a former adviser to Nick Minchin, is “seen as a possible right-wing contender for the vacancy”. Brad Crouch of the Sunday Mail lists Cathy Webb, Andrew McLaughlin, Paul Salu, Chris Moriarty and Maria Kourtesis as other possibilities.
Matters state:
Page 1 of 2 | Next page
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Well, Bludgers, good night. Sleep well.
by Boerwar on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:17 pm
Puff,
Still negotiating!
by Space Kidette on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:17 pm
Peg
It would be nice to discuss this without the pseudo-analytical nonsense.
Thanks for the additional commentary!
by Astrobleme on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:18 pm
maybe people on here know what the issue is but prefer to not bore everyone to death by going on about day in day out.
and there is nothing better to see than those that profess to know the truth…
i also thought the ALP was about internal debate, external solidarity.
it now appears that those who lose the internal debate have chosen to destroy the solidarity.
by middle man on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Surely you jest! Labor needs people who are capable of winning those reluctantly supportive of its views, not those who continue to alienate them because of boorish, thuggish behaviour.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Night boerwar
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:18 pm
spur212 @ 3079
I doubt it. They have dug themselves in way too far. Thought and logic doesn’t enter into it. Nor does even a basic ability to comprehend polls.
by bemused on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Goodnight Boerwar.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:19 pm
bemused/spur
We do not choose the leader, caucus does. We do not need to be convinced of anything. Least of all by you two.
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:20 pm
I am not sure if you guys have posted this earlier but PM ran the IA story on Jackson tonight
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-26/jacksons-at-centre-of-hsu-allegations/4093190
by bluegreen on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:20 pm
My friends, why do you bicker so?
by bluegreen on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:21 pm
Isn’t it amazing, even Maxine McKew is excommunicated by some here, the woman he beat little Johnnie Howard. The woman that everyone used to love, now…..
She doesn’t lick Gillard’s toes so that is it for her, and the mortal sin of being a Rudd supporter.
Her comment …
Is exactly what has been happening since day one of the assasination of Rudd by Gillard’s factional backers.
Cant wait for the book, at least it should contain some real back room information.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:21 pm
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbotts-carbon-tax-flyer-exposes-businesses-to-fines-bradbury-20120626-20ztc.html#ixzz1ytwZobix
Hilarious. Today’s Liberal party: stuff up one day, total clusterf**k the next.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:22 pm
bg
Amazing isnt it. I remember you deriding the lizard people for following the IA story. Now the ABC has taken it up. Only took them a month
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:23 pm
not sure i sighted the word ‘excommunicated’ before you wrote it.
by middle man on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:23 pm
TP
If the aim is not to have Tony Abbott as leader, then anything that helps that deserves criticism.
Even if the Ruddstoration were magically to happen, McKew’s comments – as reported -are of no benefit in helping Labor win the next election.
She could wait – as even Richo did – a little longer and not do any damage.
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:24 pm
Vic
I never denied that Jackson was not a person of disrepute, just that it would get Thomson off the hook for his misdemeanours.
The whole HSU board should be in weekend detention for the next five years.
by bluegreen on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:25 pm
Having lived in that seat I can tell you why Maxine McKew lost. She failed to secure the chinese vote.
by Space Kidette on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:25 pm
what is it exactly that the ‘restore Rudd’ crowd want?
i’m struggling to understand what they think will be achieved?
I wasn’t in causcus so i dont know if the decision to sack him was right or wrong? others here seem to claim they know for sure it was wrong.
so how exactly can this ‘problem’ you all see be fixed?
by middle man on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Just how pathetic can you people actually become?
In earlier times you two would probably be the first out there to have her garrotted for speaking against your anointed.
And if you were not so stupid you would see the bleeding obvious of how and where the mortal damage to government has been done, and it is nothing to do with Rudd, McKew and the like.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:27 pm
Astrobleme,
Zoomster’s MO is transparent. Anyone who can not see it is not going to be persuaded by you or me so there is no point in wasting your time in a long and protracted exchange over many hours with her.
She wants you to lose your temper and remain mired in a personal tit for tat. By doing so she is distracting you from presenting evidence and facts.
Sure, occasionally I will push back against her verballing but never for long. I am happy not to have the last word and am content for her posts to stand without response and let the lurkers make their own judgement about what she says and how she conducts herself.
by Pegasus on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:27 pm
Corro between Bowen and Morrison – re AS back in Jan, worth a read.
http://www.minister.immi.gov.au/media/media-releases/_pdf/cb_sm_correspondence.pdf
by Rossmore on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Andrew Elder, who lives in the seat, says she failed to campaign period. He wrote a post immediately following the 2010 election about his observations.
It would appear Mckew expected the party would simply carry her in 2010 as it did in 2007 when she was facing off against a sitting PM. Unrealistic.
by confessions on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Thanks Peg
Goodnight!
by Astrobleme on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:29 pm
bg
That is not how I recall your commentary. The FWA report did not mention anything as reported by IA and now the ABC. Question is why? And that is what some of us bludgers were challenging at the time. I recall a very different perspective from you. But hey, what does it matter i guess
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:29 pm
“meher baba
Posted Tuesday, June 26, 2012 at 10:06 pm | Permalink
It’s looking more and more like “Utegate2: Steve’s back and this timr he’s gonna get him”. I believe Abetz went out of his way to counsel Abbott and Pyne not to pursue this on the basis of “If it looks too good to be true, then it isn’t”. But the prize was clearly too great.
Some of you love conspiracies. How about this one. Labor MP is married to Chris Uhlmann. Uhlmann is best mates with Steve Lewis. Steve Lewis is looking reasonable odds to have seriously wounded two Liberal leaders in less than three years….
You know it makes sense.”
Jeez meher baba, I thought I was a conspiracy theorist, I dips me lid to ya, the best I could come up with was Palmer doing a Newman
by Augustus on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:29 pm
i’m constantly amazed by the pomposity, arrogance and rudeness of posters on this site. some people need to get over themselves. a little civility people, please.
by middle man on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:29 pm
http://kangaroocourtofaustralia.com/2012/06/24/julia-gillards-corrupt-past-raised-in-parliament-by-alp-member-robert-mcclelland/
by Space Kidette on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:30 pm
Question for the board
Can we say that, slowly, the Meme is changing ?
By saying that I mean, given that Abbotts main rhetorical attack has reached its dead end with Sunday looming, and given that the Government now should get some clear air, will the fact of the Government simply governing, and Tonies complete lack of policy cause peoples sentiment to shift back ?
by Mick Collins on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:30 pm
TP There are more important things on the political agenda today than Ruddstoration. Move on.
by Rossmore on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:30 pm
peg
I’d be delighted for Astro to do that. In fact, I encourage it.
He didn’t need to be distracted. He failed to bring them up all by himself.
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:30 pm
Boerwar @ 3088
Mr War, there is no need for that. Just supporting the present leadership of the ALP has things right on track to achieve that. The polls clearly show that it is leadership that is dragging the govt down in the polls. I am confident that will change, one way or another.
by bemused on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:31 pm
Good way to finish a good day. The one, the only NeoCon Tory solution to everything (not confined to old Blighty either)
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/the-daily-cartoon-760940.html
by OzPol Tragic on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:31 pm
you meanz like this?
by The Finnigans on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:31 pm
peg
Yep. You’re openly mocked here, and I’m not, so how’s that working out for you?
by zoomster on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:31 pm
Astrobleme are you for real?
Silly question, you’re a Green, of course not!
People in their appropriate field have concluded that the Malaysian solution has a solid chance of being successful.
These experts are in a much stroger position to make a more informed determination than a simpleton like you.
Why will the Malaysian solution work?
I have told you before, people will be much, much more reluctant to embark on a boat heading to our shores where their chances will be that another country will be their ultimate destination.
If you are not simple, you will remember it so you don’t have to ask the same question again!
by Centre on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:32 pm
It is actually the fools who after copious quantities of clear evidence that Gillard IS the problem, but still blame everybody and everything else, that are doing all the damage to Labor’s .
It is the sad people who support factional mafia control of the party even to its own destruction that are the problem and the only ones whose position will bring us PM Abbott and GG Howard.
by Thomas Paine. on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:32 pm
I agree with everything that McKew said. i thought it was honest and factual.
I would add that in all of the Multicultural seats in Western Sydney, even the really safe ones, there were large swings against Labor.
I would put this down to two things (which I have discussed here before) whcih relate to my new demographic- the multicultural ‘values’ voters
1 athiest PM
2 Dogwhistling rhetoric (Bradbury in Navy vessel, not believing in Big Australia etc etc)
by bluegreen on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:33 pm
mm
Agree we should be more civil.
Calling it a night.
Interesting to see what tomorrow brings
by victoria on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:33 pm
vic. there is just no need for some of the attitude and language on here.
goodnight.
by middle man on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:35 pm
Where I agree that you outpredicted me is that the Jackson delerium has taken the political and media pressure off Thomson.
by bluegreen on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:35 pm
Even the herald,waiting to see if they do jackson as well
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/staffer-talked-dirty-to-speaker-peter-slipper/story-fn7x8me2-1226409541284
by Schnappi on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:35 pm
yep, she is absolutely right, I wrote to then PM Rudd that he should call a DD and didnt get a reply. So he lost me, as simple as that.
by The Finnigans on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:36 pm
SK @ 3117
She had it in 2007 and a lot of it left in 2010 when certain event occurred.
ALP members with a large Chinese community like to have Rudd campaigning with them.
by bemused on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:36 pm
One for all the Rudd fans:
by Dan Gulberry on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:37 pm
bemused
Goodness, are all those Laborites closet Greens
by Pegasus on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:38 pm
good news Dan. He’s my local member and I’m glad he will continue to be.
by middle man on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:38 pm
Bemused,
It is a bit more than that, they like to be wooed. Wacking a few pamphlets in letter boxes won’t do it. And they tend to vote as a block so you can’t skip doing the hard yards with them.
by Space Kidette on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:39 pm
Kiddo, methinks it might have something to do with Rudd’s speech at the Beijing University in Mandarin.
by The Finnigans on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:39 pm
Finns,
Enlighten me my brain is fried and can’t recall!
by Space Kidette on Jun 26, 2012 at 10:40 pm